Renewable Energy Growth Rate Jumped 45% Worldwide In 2020; IEA Sees 'New Normal'

[Boat + 1,324]

When it comes to the EIA and IEA it has been known for at least a decade, that I have followed them, their accuracy are in their history that goes through revisions as the numbers come in over time. Nobody’s projections of the future are accurate. Current numbers reflect a very slow pipeline of information which reflect those revisions. These types of arguments have also been around for the same decade of observation. I renamed these attempts to discredit data Trumpisms. In reality is just more disingenuous politics.

[Dan Clemmensen + 1,011]

4 hours ago, Boat said:

Can you show me a chart of increased Chinese consumption of coal? I have heard rumors of this surge in coal consumption but have not seen that rise in any of the typical organizations that track it. 

As I understand it, China added quite a bit of new coal capacity last year, bringing three very large new state-of-the-art plants online. However, they also retired a lot of small old inefficient coal plants, so the net capacity gain was small. But that's capacity, not consumption. The utilization factor for their fleet keeps going down as renewables pick up more of the load. This is all qualitative, so I need to look for the actual figures.

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,190]

9 hours ago, Boat said:

coal #s

 

4 hours ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

As I understand it, China added quite a bit of new coal capacity last year, bringing three very large new state-of-the-art plants online. However, they also retired a lot of small old inefficient coal plants, so the net capacity gain was small. But that's capacity, not consumption. The utilization factor for their fleet keeps going down as renewables pick up more of the load. This is all qualitative, so I need to look for the actual figures.

If reuters is to be believed.... China hit its second highest coal usage last year.  https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/chinas-2020-coal-output-rises-to-highest-since-2015-undermining-climate-pledges-2021-01-17

Edited May 13, 2021 by footeab@yahoo.com
spelling

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

34 minutes ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

 

If reuters is to be believed.... China hit its second highest coal usage last year.  https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/chinas-2020-coal-output-rises-to-highest-since-2015-undermining-climate-pledges-2021-01-17

They are reporting coal production not usage and that production is up because of restrictions on imports. Surging demand sounds like just a return to normal after covid.

But production is rising amid surging industrial demand and an unofficial restriction on coal imports aimed at shoring up the domestic mining industry.

Edited May 13, 2021 by Jay McKinsey

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

China has flagged it will seek to raise its power generation from solar and wind plants to around 11% of the country’s total power consumption in 2021, from 9.7% in 2020, said the National Energy Administration (NEA) in a draft rule on Monday.

Chinese President Xi Jinping has announced that China will boost the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to around 25% by 2030, part of his pledge to bring the country's carbon emissions to a peak before 2030.

https://www.reuters.com/business/sustainable-business/china-bring-solar-wind-power-generation-11-total-electricity-use-2021-2021-04-19/

China aims to cut its coal use to below 56% of energy consumption in 2021, the National Energy Administration (NEA) said in a statement on Thursday, but said the fuel would still play a vital role in ensuring the nation's energy security.

China, the world's biggest coal consumer, lowered the share of coal use in its primary energy mix to 56.8% in 2020, from around 68% at the beginning of the previous decade.

The NEA also plans to raise electricity use to 28% of end-use energy consumption in China, up from the 2020 goal of 27%, the document said.

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-cut-coal-use-share-below-56-2021-2021-04-22/

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,190]

I'm not sure why anyone thinks China's consumption of Coal, NG, Oil, Uranium, Hydro, Solar, Wind will be dropping.... IT will be going UP.  Same with India, Africa, etc etc etc. 

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

15 hours ago, markslawson said:

 

Guys, sorry to rain on your parade yet again, but you didn't look closely at the material did you? The vast bulk of the increases in renewables in the IEA reckoning occurs in China - maybe almost three quarters - which is, as has been pointed out in other threads in this site, also binge building coal fired power plants - far more than it could ever possible need for the foreseeable future. In both cases the trend would be driven by internal party politics, not economics or any market reality. It is a characteristic of the Chinese system if one province has a project then the party bosses in other provinces/states must also have a similar project in order to look good to the bosses in Beijing. That is the way to get promotion. Vietnam also accounts for a slice. Why Vietnam? As is pointed out by this article and as is the case in China, the Vietnamese power grid cannot absorb the surge in renewables without additional serious investment. The surge is explained in this article and before Dan gets excited note the big incentive in feed-in tariffs offered to renewables. Its a government policy thing, its not nothing to do with the market as such. That leaves the US and, again, I contend that the US surge is driven by policy not markets or economics. Hope that clarifies matters for you.  

Building coal fired plants does not mean using them at full capacity nor does it mean that equal capacity isn't being retired. 

So Vietnam is incapable of improving their grid? Stop being a knob. Vietnam's economy is booming and they are investing in their infrastructure. The grid along with storage are next to be upgraded.

Edited May 13, 2021 by Jay McKinsey

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

10 minutes ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

I'm not sure why anyone thinks China's consumption of Coal, NG, Oil, Uranium, Hydro, Solar, Wind will be dropping.... IT will be going UP.  Same with India, Africa, etc etc etc. 

Xi will lose face if China doesn't bring carbon emissions to a peak before 2030. So there will have to a hard cap on the amount of fossil fuel used or else implement carbon capture.

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,190]

2 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Xi will lose face if China doesn't bring carbon emissions to a peak before 2030. So there will have to a hard cap on the amount of fossil fuel used or else implement carbon capture.

That is delusional.  Xi has no face to lose other than number of jobs his proles have.  All they care about is $$$.  If they think mining less coal will make them more $$$, they will do so.  If mining more means more jobs/$$$ they will do so.  They do not have content rich mans disease like fools in the west who have been sitting on their asses for the last 2 generations pretending they are hard working. 

It should also be noted that China is about ~2/3 done building out their hydro which is the worlds cheapest battery bank.   So, with the worlds cheapest battery bank, and also the worlds LARGEST battery bank by a GARGANTUAN mile above anyone else due to the Tibetan Plateau, China can actually use said intermittent power sources if they tie them together properly. 

So far they are NOT tied together and China's wind capacity in Inner Mongolia etc, is sitting at ~+20% of nameplate capacity.  This is very poor.  I do not know if their utilization factor is so low because of not being tied onto a grid with Coal which cannot be ramped up/down well, corruption/bureaucracy, or if their wind is that poor in terms of consistency.  Probably a bit of all three.  And no, China is not building grid storage batteries, they are smarter than this unlike members on this forum. 

Amount of renewables, wind/solar, their grid can handle will be tied DIRECTLY to how much interconnection they achieve with their hydropower plants.   When China does this, then you can effectively double the amount of hdyropower storage power potential and this will be their hard ceiling.   So, like everywhere else, you can base load about 50% of wind/solar, and everything else gets used instantly, or is either wasted, or you have gobs of natural gas on hand.  China does not have gobs of natural gas.  Does have gobs of hydropower battery potential though.  If China builds the interconnects, double builds their dams in side canyons, doubles powerhouse capacity on the dams, then we will know China is serious about going "green".  Until then, it is nothing but window dressing for gullible stupid people to swill up.  Even if they do the above, this will handle maybe upwards of 1/3 of projected electrical demand.  Over a Billion is still over a Billion people hungry for power. 

[markslawson + 1,058]

14 hours ago, Boat said:

Can you show me a chart of increased Chinese consumption of coal? I have heard rumors of this surge in coal consumption but have not seen that rise in any of the typical organizations that track it. 

Dunno about a chart but there is this article from Reuters. Coal consumption increased by 0.6 per cent in 2020. This year's consumption and some of last year's would be complicated by the fact that the Chinese government has a partial ban on Australian coal as part of an on-going trade war. One result, if the media is to be believed, is that some of its citizens had reduced power and heat during the winter..  

[Dan Clemmensen + 1,011]

7 minutes ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

That is delusional.  Xi has no face to lose other than number of jobs his proles have.  All they care about is $$$.  If they think mining less coal will make them more $$$, they will do so.  If mining more means more jobs/$$$ they will do so.  They do not have content rich mans disease like fools in the west who have been sitting on their asses for the last 2 generations pretending they are hard working. 

It should also be noted that China is about ~2/3 done building out their hydro which is the worlds cheapest battery bank.   So, with the worlds cheapest battery bank, and also the worlds LARGEST battery bank by a GARGANTUAN mile above anyone else due to the Tibetan Plateau, China can actually use said intermittent power sources if they tie them together properly. 

So far they are NOT tied together and China's wind capacity in Inner Mongolia etc, is sitting at ~+20% of nameplate capacity.  This is very poor.  I do not know if their utilization factor is so low because of not being tied onto a grid with Coal which cannot be ramped up/down well, corruption/bureaucracy, or if their wind is that poor in terms of consistency.  Probably a bit of all three.  And no, China is not building grid storage batteries, they are smarter than this unlike members on this forum. 

Amount of renewables, wind/solar, their grid can handle will be tied DIRECTLY to how much interconnection they achieve with their hydropower plants.   When China does this, then you can effectively double the amount of hdyropower storage power potential and this will be their hard ceiling.   So, like everywhere else, you can base load about 50% of wind/solar, and everything else gets used instantly, or is either wasted, or you have gobs of natural gas on hand.  China does not have gobs of natural gas.  Does have gobs of hydropower battery potential though.  If China builds the interconnects, double builds their dams in side canyons, doubles powerhouse capacity on the dams, then we will know China is serious about going "green".  Until then, it is nothing but window dressing for gullible stupid people to swill up.  Even if they do the above, this will handle maybe upwards of 1/3 of projected electrical demand.  Over a Billion is still over a Billion people hungry for power. 

My impression of China is that its bureaucracy is pretty creaky. From the outside, China is doing really great right now, but that's because they are recovering from some horrible past problems. They will run into the consequences some of their decisions about ten years from now when the "one child" demographics start to hurt them.  Currently, their economy and its need for energy are expanding quite rapidly. Just looking at percentages, they are growing renewables much faster than they are growing coal, but their internal politics appears to favor coal in some provinces. It will be interesting to see what the mix is when the Chinese GDP per capita reaches what ours is today. It will be interesting to see what our mix is and what our GDP per capita will be then, also.

 

[markslawson + 1,058]

3 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Building coal fired plants does not mean using them at full capacity nor does it mean that equal capacity isn't being retired. 

So Vietnam is incapable of improving their grid? Stop being a knob. Vietnam's economy is booming and they are investing in their infrastructure. The grid along with storage are next to be upgraded.

Jay - we've discussed this before. I never said anything about the coal plants being used or not being used. They are being built for party political reasons, just like the wind turbines and PVs. Sure there is some retirement of coal plants but its happening in the West, as far as I know, not so much in China. I repeat these forms of generation are being built for political reasons. As for Vietnam of course they can imporve their grid, but my point was that the increase in renewables is far greater than the present grid can accommodate. As in China, there is also the problem that the grids are run completely differently to those of the west .. consumer prices are regulated and, I think, there is no spot price pool. The incentive is the feed-in tarrif.

 

3 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Xi will lose face if China doesn't bring carbon emissions to a peak before 2030. So there will have to a hard cap on the amount of fossil fuel used or else implement carbon capture.

Jay - as the other posters have pointed out that statement is simply absurd. If caught out they'd just doctor the figures or claim some dodgy carbon offset.. lots of ways to cheat..    

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

7 minutes ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

  And no, China is not building grid storage batteries, they are smarter than this unlike members on this forum. 

 

 

China deployed 533.3MW of new electrochemical energy storage projects in the first three quarters of 2020, an increase of 157% on the same period in 2019.

https://www.energy-storage.news/news/chinas-nine-month-energy-storage-deployments-up-157-year-on-year

Once complete and online in 2021, the battery farm will have peak power capacity of 200MW and electricity storage capacity of 800MWh.

https://www.powerengineeringint.com/smart-grid-td/energy-storage/latest-development-on-chinas-largest-battery-energy-storage-project/

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

47 minutes ago, markslawson said:

Jay - we've discussed this before. I never said anything about the coal plants being used or not being used. They are being built for party political reasons, just like the wind turbines and PVs. Sure there is some retirement of coal plants but its happening in the West, as far as I know, not so much in China. I repeat these forms of generation are being built for political reasons. As for Vietnam of course they can imporve their grid, but my point was that the increase in renewables is far greater than the present grid can accommodate. As in China, there is also the problem that the grids are run completely differently to those of the west .. consumer prices are regulated and, I think, there is no spot price pool. The incentive is the feed-in tarrif.

 

Jay - as the other posters have pointed out that statement is simply absurd. If caught out they'd just doctor the figures or claim some dodgy carbon offset.. lots of ways to cheat..    

Yes, China does build for political reasons, we will just have to see which ones they use going into the future.

Vietnam has built up renewables to the point where now it is time to work on the grid and storage. This has been their plan to not rely on fossil imports and present a modern system ready for investment. Much of that investment will be toward grid enhancements.

At the same time, the country’s political class is eager to expand the role of private capital as a driver of growth, and it knows that in order to do so it must push through reforms in critical sectors historically dominated by state-owned companies. The speed with which EVN has used feed-in-tariffs to onboard renewable energy from private producers should send a positive signal to markets. https://thediplomat.com/2021/01/whats-driving-vietnams-renewable-energy-boom/

CO2 emissions are going to be monitored by region from space. So no doctoring of figures and they can claim some offset or whatever but if the world rejects it then they look like fools and a backward country. https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53613336#:~:text=German manufacturer OHB-System has,network to monitor carbon dioxide.&text=The aim is to launch,that will report in 2028.

Edited May 14, 2021 by Jay McKinsey

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,190]

1 hour ago, Jay McKinsey said:

 

China deployed 533.3MW of new electrochemical energy storage projects in the first three quarters of 2020, an increase of 157% on the same period in 2019.

https://www.energy-storage.news/news/chinas-nine-month-energy-storage-deployments-up-157-year-on-year

Once complete and online in 2021, the battery farm will have peak power capacity of 200MW and electricity storage capacity of 800MWh.

https://www.powerengineeringint.com/smart-grid-td/energy-storage/latest-development-on-chinas-largest-battery-energy-storage-project/

Can you math bro?  No, and why I have you blocked unless I click your post.  

No one gives a flying %#$**#@  about a couple MW

1. Simple math bro: How many hours in a day? 
2. How many hours of sunshine is there in a day on solar panels?
3. How many hours a day do Wind Turbines turn for?

So, if you install 100GW of wind turbines does less than 0.05% battery backup mean Shit?  No. 

 

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

50 minutes ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Can you math bro?  No, and why I have you blocked unless I click your post.  

No one gives a flying %#$**#@  about a couple MW

1. Simple math bro: How many hours in a day? 
2. How many hours of sunshine is there in a day on solar panels?
3. How many hours a day do Wind Turbines turn for?

So, if you install 100GW of wind turbines does less than 0.05% battery backup mean Shit?  No. 

 

Yes, I can math. I can calculate growth rates into the future. Apparently you can't.  Batteries are just getting going and in a few years those numbers are going to be huge!

If you have me blocked it is because I am always showing how wrong you are.

Since you are oblivious I will point out that the US is adding 4.3 GW of batteries this year.

And as to wind + storage, Here is the ratio a company in Texas is going with

The Azure Sky wind + storage project will pair 350MW of wind power capacity with “approximately 137MW of battery storage” in Throckmorton County, Texas,

https://www.energy-storage.news/news/enel-builds-texas-wind-storage-hybrid-power-plant-signs-350gwh-ppa-with-cer

 

Edited May 14, 2021 by Jay McKinsey

[Boat + 1,324]

15 minutes ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Can you math bro?  No, and why I have you blocked unless I click your post.  

No one gives a flying %#$**#@  about a couple MW

1. Simple math bro: How many hours in a day? 
2. How many hours of sunshine is there in a day on solar panels?
3. How many hours a day do Wind Turbines turn for?

So, if you install 100GW of wind turbines does less than 0.05% battery backup mean Shit?  No. 

 

Let me woke you. Healthcare is expensive. A large amount of our healthcare problems are caused by pullution. Not all but much of our pollution is FF driven. Now google pollution deaths, health care costs from pollution by state and by country. Big cities will even have numbers. 
So in an economic sense this is called opportunity. Renewables represent a reduction in cutting costs for health because they have far fewer pollution concerns. 
This is all common sense and in theory should be an economic calculation, but alas it’s a political swamp. 
Hey, us greenies are making progress. 20 years ago rednecks loved coal, today rednecks blame China for coal consumption. 10 years from now it will be oil and gas on the chopping block. Time and economics can woke even rednecks.

[surrept33 + 609]

43 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Yes, I can math. I can calculate growth rates into the future. Apparently you can't.  Batteries are just getting going and in a few years those numbers are going to be huge!

If you have me blocked it is because I am always showing how wrong you are.

Since you are oblivious I will point out that the US is adding 4.3 GW of batteries this year.

And as to wind + storage, Here is the ratio a company in Texas is going with

The Azure Sky wind + storage project will pair 350MW of wind power capacity with “approximately 137MW of battery storage” in Throckmorton County, Texas,

https://www.energy-storage.news/news/enel-builds-texas-wind-storage-hybrid-power-plant-signs-350gwh-ppa-with-cer

 

PPA/VPPA purchasing growth is pretty interesting. I think it'll skyrocket in the 2020s due to an increased focused on more corporations pledging or hyperaccelerating decarbonization goals.

From https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/research/report/role-corporate-renewable-power-purchase-agreements-supporting-us-wind-and-solar-deployment  (not counting late 2020):

 

Edited May 14, 2021 by surrept33

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

One of Australia’s major electricity retailers, EnergyAustralia, on Wednesday announced it would “power ahead with energy transition,” replacing Yallourn coal-fired power station in Victoria’s Latrobe Valley with a four-hour 350 MW capacity big battery.

Yallourn is Australia’s dirtiest power plant and its retirement will cut 60% of EnergyAustralia’s carbon dioxide emissions in one fell swoop. Originally scheduled to close in 2032, the power station will now be retired by mid-2028, with its 500-person permanent workforce given a $10 million support package. Yallourn currently supplies about 20% of  Victoria’s electricity demand or eight per cent of the National Electricity Market.

AEMO said more than 40 projects, totaling nearly 4.9 GW completed registration or began exporting to the grid in 2020 while another 300 generation and storage projects, totaling 55 GW, are proposed across the NEM.

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2021/05/13/3-3-gw-renewables-pipeline-provides-cover-for-coal-fired-power-plant-closures-in-australia/

[Boat + 1,324]

[Boat + 1,324]

XI took over China around 2010. Coal has been flat since then. That’s just the facts. What is the point in saying any different. Let’s get woke and stick with data.

Edited May 14, 2021 by Boat

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,190]

3 hours ago, Boat said:

Let me woke you. Healthcare is expensive. A large amount of our healthcare problems are caused by pullution. Not all but much of our pollution is FF driven. Now google pollution deaths, health care costs from pollution by state and by country. Big cities will even have numbers. 
So in an economic sense this is called opportunity. Renewables represent a reduction in cutting costs for health because they have far fewer pollution concerns. 
This is all common sense and in theory should be an economic calculation, but alas it’s a political swamp. 
Hey, us greenies are making progress. 20 years ago rednecks loved coal, today rednecks blame China for coal consumption. 10 years from now it will be oil and gas on the chopping block. Time and economics can woke even rednecks.

Your "woke" is a boogeyman with no tie to reality... Brilliant argument... Absolutely Brilliant

Rednecks still love coal, they can do basic economics after all and do not live in Utopia like Greenies.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

More big news out of Australia.

EnergyAustralia has today announced that electricity rates for Victorian household and business customers will decrease in 2021, reflecting lower wholesale prices and network costs. 

Effective 1 February 2021, the average¹ household on a market offer variable rate plan with EnergyAustralia will save about $144 a year on their electricity bill (a decrease of 6.1 per cent) while the decrease for small-to-medium businesses is $529 a year (a decrease of 8 per cent). 

Reflecting increases in the cost of buying and transporting gas, average household gas bills will rise by $59 a year (3.2 per cent) and $300 for small-to-medium businesses (3.9 per cent). 

• Electricity market offer prices will decrease in 2021 due to reductions in the regulated network price set by the Australian Energy Regulator, as well as in wholesale costs, which continue to decline as more renewable energy projects come online. 

https://www.energyaustralia.com.au/about-us/media/news/energyaustralias-victorian-household-electricity-bills-set-fall-2021

Edited May 14, 2021 by Jay McKinsey

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

On 5/13/2021 at 7:05 AM, markslawson said:

I contend that the US surge is driven by policy not markets or economics. Hope that clarifies matters for you.  

Totally agree and its not just the US its every developed country!

The whole green agenda is political and pushed through by those who stand to earn fortunes by doing so. They pray on the stupid and the lazy, those who either don't understand the science or those too lazy to actually research it properly.

The only good thing I can see from the whole green agenda is that it will certainly drive down pollution which kills tens of thousands each and every year. The climate change issue is bull*hit.

 

[gkam44 + 26]

Being a former engineer for a large power company and having earned a Master of Science in Energy and the Environment, I had PV panels installed five years ago, with my estimated payback of 15-17 years, . . the right thing for an eco-freak to do. Before they could be installed, we acquired a VW e-Golf electric car. The savings in gasoline alone took the solar system payback down to 3 1/2 years. So, we added a used Tesla Model S, P85, and that took the payback down to less than three years, which means we now get free power for household and transportation.

But that is not all: We do not need to go to gas stations, we fuel up at home at night with cheap baseload power. During the daytime, the PV system turns our meter backwards powering the neighborhood with clean local power, which we trade for the stuff to be used that night. If we paid for transportation fuel, the VW would cost us 4 cents/mile to drive, and the Tesla would cost 5 cents/mile at California off-peak power prices.

No oil changes are a real treat along with no leaks. And since it has an electric motor, it needs NO ENGINE MAINTENANCE at all. We do not go "gas up", or get tune-ups or emissions checks, have no transmission about which to worry, no complicated machined parts needing care.

THAT is what will sell the EV, and the real problem is not powering them, (the power companies have been working on and praying for the EV for a generation), the problem will be dealing with an economy which has had a large portion taken out of it. Too much of our economy is dependent on the needs of the internal combustion engine, from mechanics to emissions checkers to the folk who make oil filters, and all the folk who support them. I see a rush to EVs, (go drive one, and see), and the implications of this advance as an impending wave of dislocation for this society for which we must plan now.