Electric cars may make driving too expensive for middle classes, warns Vauxhall chief

[RichieRich216 + 454]

If they are that stupid I am sue liberals would! 

[turbguy + 1,537]

Well, if this claim holds up, it's gonna make a difference to battery material cost.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Scientists-Find-Cheap-And-Easy-Way-To-Extract-Lithium-From-Seawater.html

...until so much Lithium is extracted from our waters that humanity suffers a pandemic of bipolar disorder (manic depression)!

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,552]

47 minutes ago, turbguy said:

.until so much Lithium is extracted from our waters that humanity suffers a pandemic of bipolar disorder (manic depression)!

Interesting was Trump reinstated to his presidency while i was mowing the lawn? Damm if i turn my gaze away for a minute things literally blow up.

[Dan Clemmensen + 1,011]

2 hours ago, turbguy said:

Well, if this claim holds up, it's gonna make a difference to battery material cost.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Scientists-Find-Cheap-And-Easy-Way-To-Extract-Lithium-From-Seawater.html

...until so much Lithium is extracted from our waters that humanity suffers a pandemic of bipolar disorder (manic depression)!

That's pretty cool, but remember that we see one or more over-hyped announcements of lab experiments every week touting a game-changing advance in something-or-other related to batteries or energy storage. I now have given up on believing that any specific one of them will be the real one. I do believe that one or more of these hundreds of lab results really will make a major difference, we just don't know which one. I prefer to wait until it goes into production.

Speaking of which, CATL (the biggest Chinese battery company) is going into production with a NiG (i.e., sodium-ion) battery. No lithium or nickel is needed. Energy density is poor, but cost per kWh is lower than Li-ion and the number of cycles and charge/discharge rates are really good. These will displace Li-ion for fixed utility-scale and residential batteries, which will free up the lithium for mobile batteries.

https://www.batteriesinternational.com/2021/06/03/sodium-ion-batteries-to-pose-threat-to-lithium-and-lead-industries/

[Ecocharger + 1,447]

Here is the sad truth about the EV revolution/fad...it doesn't work for what it is purported to do.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Leading-Investment-Firm-EVs-May-Offer-Negligible-CO2-Advantage-Over-ICE-Veh.html

[BenFranklin'sSpectacles + 762]

19 hours ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

The initial cost of a car is a truly major consideration for a whole lot of people. That's why so many people purchase a used car. For decades, the most massive transfer of wealth to the poor in the US was the used car market. Wealthier folks bought new every two years, and the two-year-old used cars cost less than half the price of a new car. While things have changed over the years, this wealth transfer has not completely disappeared. The problem of course is that a used car is statistically less reliable than a new car, so the poor are statistically more likely to pay more for maintenance and gasoline.

Eventually, there will be used EVs on the market in large numbers, and the less wealthy will be able to buy them. The big question is how well the batteries will hold up.

I do see your point - and I think I largely agree with what you're saying - but I also see some possibilities that might mitigate or negate it.

Most people I know finance their vehicles. Sure, that's only anecdote - but what if a significant fraction of the population is financing vehicles? That would create a scenario where the purchase price ceases to matter; people would only see the monthly cost.

And in fact, I see that automobiles are advertised not by their purchase price, but by their monthly payment. With simple addition, an EV company could point out how much less that consumer would spend on an EV. Customers living paycheck-to-paycheck would leap at the opportunity to lower their monthly bill.

Of course, I also see that EVs are, in fact, much simpler machines than ICE vehicles. We predicate our belief that EVs have higher capital costs on currently available vehicles - vehicles explicitly designed for upscale customers using as yet immature technologies. I suspect that EVs will achieve price parity in a few years, at which point this discussion is moot.

[BenFranklin'sSpectacles + 762]

15 hours ago, turbguy said:

Hard to beat my Harley Sportster that gets 57 MPG, and is REALLY fun to drive (actually RIDE)!

The heater sucks, though...

How long do the tires last, and how much do they cost?

[turbguy + 1,537]

47 minutes ago, BenFranklin'sSpectacles said:

How long do the tires last, and how much do they cost?

OEM tires last about 9,000-12,000 miles (+/-), depending on how much dirt/gravel roads I ride on.

I can't recall material costs, but labor is definitely enhanced over that for "cager" tires, due to extra effort to remove/replace wheels. It's at least $100 per tire.

The initials H-D (Harley-Davidson) really stands for Hundred-Dollar, which appears to be the minimum price for any OEM part (other than a tee-shirt).

 

Edited June 8, 2021 by turbguy

[MikeH + 8]

On 5/30/2021 at 2:53 PM, BenFranklin'sSpectacles said:

I would argue Vauxhall is miscalculating several things:
1) The value of an EV's lower fuel costs.
2) The value of an EV's reduced maintenance costs.
3) The value of an EV's greater longevity.
4) The pace of EV innovation and cost reduction.

Although most people base their decisions on purchase price, it is not a relevant metric for determining affordability. Total Cost of Ownership fills that role. When the option for cheap-to-buy-but-expensive-to-operate vehicles is removed, consumers will finally consider EVs - and discover that they could have been saving money all along.

 

Ev's do not have greater longevity - battery needs to be replaced which is a huge cost.

"lower fuel costs"   not when the price of power goes through the roof - and where are we getting this power btw ..  if we are going to be 50% EV by 2030 the shovels for the nuclear plants need be going in the ground yesterday - yet nothing is even planned. 

and what do you think these cars are going to cost when the price of rare earths skyrockets.    New EV vehicles went from 1% of the market to 2% over the last 10 years .. and this increase in demand increased rare earth prices ..     going from 2% to 4% a demand increase of double the rate over the last 10 years .. and that gets us to 4%  not 50% - and we have 8 years .. not 10. 

 

[Dan Clemmensen + 1,011]

5 hours ago, MikeH said:

Ev's do not have greater longevity - battery needs to be replaced which is a huge cost.

"lower fuel costs"   not when the price of power goes through the roof - and where are we getting this power btw ..  if we are going to be 50% EV by 2030 the shovels for the nuclear plants need be going in the ground yesterday - yet nothing is even planned. 

and what do you think these cars are going to cost when the price of rare earths skyrockets.    New EV vehicles went from 1% of the market to 2% over the last 10 years .. and this increase in demand increased rare earth prices ..     going from 2% to 4% a demand increase of double the rate over the last 10 years .. and that gets us to 4%  not 50% - and we have 8 years .. not 10. 

 

Today's EV batteries are likely to last at least 300,000 miles, and the technology is rapidly improving. the "million-mile battery" is in reach. The average ICE stays in service for about 150,000 miles.

Gasoline prices tend to "go through the roof" a lot. Electricity, not so much. EVs are well suited to use cheaper-rate electricity on "time-of-use" plans.   Depending on the location, wind and solar (+battery) is cheaper than nuclear and is a whole lot faster to build.

 "Rare Earth Element" (REE) is a technical term witha specific meaning. EVs use some REEs in the DC motor magnets today, but induction motors are almost as good and use no REEs, so high REE costs will cause typical EVs (as opposed to high-performance EVs) to shift to induction motors. REEs are used in much larger amounts in wind turbine generators, but again the DC magnet motors can be replaced by induction motors.

I'm guessing you meant cobalt and nickel rather than REE. Cobalt and nickel are used in high-performance (NCM and NCA) batteries, but are not needed in LFP batteries for non-high-performance EVs. If you want to worry about a potentially scarce resource, worry about copper.

The average price of a new car sold in the US this year is about $42,000. The un-subsidized price of a low-end Tesla model 3 is $38,000. As soon as someone begins making decent low-end EVs, their price will be well below that. Tesla does not make low-end EVs because their factories are at full production making higher-end models and they sell all they can make, while they are building new huge factories faster than big factories have ever been built before. The straight-up price is projected to reach parity in about 2026.

[BenFranklin'sSpectacles + 762]

10 hours ago, turbguy said:

OEM tires last about 9,000-12,000 miles (+/-), depending on how much dirt/gravel roads I ride on.

I can't recall material costs, but labor is definitely enhanced over that for "cager" tires, due to extra effort to remove/replace wheels. It's at least $100 per tire.

The initials H-D (Harley-Davidson) really stands for Hundred-Dollar, which appears to be the minimum price for any OEM part (other than a tee-shirt).

 

And that's why I no longer own motorcycles.

[Dan Clemmensen + 1,011]

On 6/8/2021 at 5:28 AM, BenFranklin'sSpectacles said:

I do see your point - and I think I largely agree with what you're saying - but I also see some possibilities that might mitigate or negate it.

Most people I know finance their vehicles. Sure, that's only anecdote - but what if a significant fraction of the population is financing vehicles? That would create a scenario where the purchase price ceases to matter; people would only see the monthly cost.

And in fact, I see that automobiles are advertised not by their purchase price, but by their monthly payment. With simple addition, an EV company could point out how much less that consumer would spend on an EV. Customers living paycheck-to-paycheck would leap at the opportunity to lower their monthly bill.

Of course, I also see that EVs are, in fact, much simpler machines than ICE vehicles. We predicate our belief that EVs have higher capital costs on currently available vehicles - vehicles explicitly designed for upscale customers using as yet immature technologies. I suspect that EVs will achieve price parity in a few years, at which point this discussion is moot.

I do not know you and I don't know who you know. I am a retired privileged white guy, and I also don't know a lot of folks who buy used cars. The average car on the road today is about eleven years old, and very few of my friends drive cars that have been on the road longer than ten years. This means that my personal knowledge is very highly skewed toward the new end of the car fleet. I suspect that many of the cars in the older half of the fleet are third-hand, bought from friends, or hand-me-downs. It will take another decade before we see EVs filter down to this level, and the first-generation EVs (early Nissan Leafs and BMW i3, pre-2015 Teslas) may not make it at all because of battery life. This means that we won't really know the shape of the used-EV curve until perhaps 2036.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 6/8/2021 at 7:05 PM, BenFranklin'sSpectacles said:

And that's why I no longer own motorcycles.

You can get some street cred with the T shirt, motorcycle boots, the chained wallet etc. Your bike is in the shop.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 6/8/2021 at 3:25 PM, Dan Clemmensen said:

Today's EV batteries are likely to last at least 300,000 miles, and the technology is rapidly improving. the "million-mile battery" is in reach. The average ICE stays in service for about 150,000 miles.

Gasoline prices tend to "go through the roof" a lot. Electricity, not so much. EVs are well suited to use cheaper-rate electricity on "time-of-use" plans.   Depending on the location, wind and solar (+battery) is cheaper than nuclear and is a whole lot faster to build.

 "Rare Earth Element" (REE) is a technical term witha specific meaning. EVs use some REEs in the DC motor magnets today, but induction motors are almost as good and use no REEs, so high REE costs will cause typical EVs (as opposed to high-performance EVs) to shift to induction motors. REEs are used in much larger amounts in wind turbine generators, but again the DC magnet motors can be replaced by induction motors.

I'm guessing you meant cobalt and nickel rather than REE. Cobalt and nickel are used in high-performance (NCM and NCA) batteries, but are not needed in LFP batteries for non-high-performance EVs. If you want to worry about a potentially scarce resource, worry about copper.

The average price of a new car sold in the US this year is about $42,000. The un-subsidized price of a low-end Tesla model 3 is $38,000. As soon as someone begins making decent low-end EVs, their price will be well below that. Tesla does not make low-end EVs because their factories are at full production making higher-end models and they sell all they can make, while they are building new huge factories faster than big factories have ever been built before. The straight-up price is projected to reach parity in about 2026.

If 2026 is the goal for price parity, there will be that many more ICE vehicles on the road. As I have stated a few times before, My Mitsubishi Mirage is about $14,500. It gets 40 mpg and has a great warranty. The only EV comparably priced gets about 60 miles per charge. The EV requires a $7,500 federal rebate. We will see what price points EV's have in the future. My guess is that only Chinese EV vehicles will be competitive. 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

See real price range for a Tesla 3. https://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-3/

[Ecocharger + 1,447]

22 hours ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

I do not know you and I don't know who you know. I am a retired privileged white guy, and I also don't know a lot of folks who buy used cars. The average car on the road today is about eleven years old, and very few of my friends drive cars that have been on the road longer than ten years. This means that my personal knowledge is very highly skewed toward the new end of the car fleet. I suspect that many of the cars in the older half of the fleet are third-hand, bought from friends, or hand-me-downs. It will take another decade before we see EVs filter down to this level, and the first-generation EVs (early Nissan Leafs and BMW i3, pre-2015 Teslas) may not make it at all because of battery life. This means that we won't really know the shape of the used-EV curve until perhaps 2036.

Used cars can run for decades without changing the engine block, not so the EV. That is why the people who will get shafted by Biden's Green Dream are the vast numbers of poor Americans who drive used cars.

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,187]

20 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

Used cars can run for decades without changing the engine block, not so the EV. That is why the people who will get shafted by Biden's Green Dream are the vast numbers of poor Americans who drive used cars.

Unless you are willing to grab wrecked Nissan Leaf's and replace battery modules etc, yes, the poor are going to get shafted hardcore.    Batteries to last a long time should never be used more than 30% of their capacity if not less than 15%.  Irregardless of battery type.  SO, the only used vehicles which will be around long timer on the used market will be the VERY high end EV's who start life with ~300+ mile range if not 500.  That way when they hit the used car market in 10 years time they can still have 50 mile range used daily for the next 10-->20 years before being scrapped as that is how the vast majority of used cars function.  Short range commuters.  College cars which mostly sit in a parking lot and used mostly on the weekends

So, all the Chevy Bolts, Nissan Leaf's of this world with their ~150mile range in 5-->10 years time will have half that capacity and the cycle fatigue will only accelerate from there as the mileage used per day for a commuter car did not change any, but rather the battery capacity keeps shrinking so it kills the battery even faster.  Only used vehicle worth buying at all are the high end TESLA's.  I almost bought 2 wrecked Nissan LEAF's and made a single car out of it, but ultimately passed on the so called "opportunity" as I knew the batteries were both trashed in both cars... And here is yet ANOTHER problem, used cars SIT for LONG PERIODS of time... this ultimately destroys the battery.  So, when BUYING a USED car, you have to assume the battery is dead because it is a guarantee that said used car dealer sure as Hell is not Charging them and whoever they bought the car from sure as Hell never charged them as more than likely said car had been sitting before being traded in, or wrecked, sitting at the repair shop and then sold to the USED dealer. 

I have 2 vehicles with over 300,000 miles on them.  If I wanted to I could easily resleave them/new rings, do another valve job on them for dirt cheap and keep going, but everything else in the car is trashed, and this will be true of all EV's at this point in their life as well, so why bother with a million mile battery? 

[Eric Gagen + 713]

11 hours ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Unless you are willing to grab wrecked Nissan Leaf's and replace battery modules etc, yes, the poor are going to get shafted hardcore.    Batteries to last a long time should never be used more than 30% of their capacity if not less than 15%.  Irregardless of battery type.  SO, the only used vehicles which will be around long timer on the used market will be the VERY high end EV's who start life with ~300+ mile range if not 500.  That way when they hit the used car market in 10 years time they can still have 50 mile range used daily for the next 10-->20 years before being scrapped as that is how the vast majority of used cars function.  Short range commuters.  College cars which mostly sit in a parking lot and used mostly on the weekends

So, all the Chevy Bolts, Nissan Leaf's of this world with their ~150mile range in 5-->10 years time will have half that capacity and the cycle fatigue will only accelerate from there as the mileage used per day for a commuter car did not change any, but rather the battery capacity keeps shrinking so it kills the battery even faster.  Only used vehicle worth buying at all are the high end TESLA's.  I almost bought 2 wrecked Nissan LEAF's and made a single car out of it, but ultimately passed on the so called "opportunity" as I knew the batteries were both trashed in both cars... And here is yet ANOTHER problem, used cars SIT for LONG PERIODS of time... this ultimately destroys the battery.  So, when BUYING a USED car, you have to assume the battery is dead because it is a guarantee that said used car dealer sure as Hell is not Charging them and whoever they bought the car from sure as Hell never charged them as more than likely said car had been sitting before being traded in, or wrecked, sitting at the repair shop and then sold to the USED dealer. 

I have 2 vehicles with over 300,000 miles on them.  If I wanted to I could easily resleave them/new rings, do another valve job on them for dirt cheap and keep going, but everything else in the car is trashed, and this will be true of all EV's at this point in their life as well, so why bother with a million mile battery? 

This is an interesting question/problem, which is how difficult will it be to 'rebattery' these vehicles in the future?  Sure an old leaf might be worthless 'as is' but if you could slap a new battery pack into it, would it be worth trying to do?  Looking ahead, 5-10 years, if there are much better, or much cheaper batteries available could you 'repower' your old Tesla or Mustang Mach E with the new system?  After all the electric motors will still be in fine shape, and so long as the rest of the car wasn't thrashed it might be a great option.  

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,187]

4 hours ago, Eric Gagen said:

This is an interesting question/problem, which is how difficult will it be to 'rebattery' these vehicles in the future?  Sure an old leaf might be worthless 'as is' but if you could slap a new battery pack into it, would it be worth trying to do?  Looking ahead, 5-10 years, if there are much better, or much cheaper batteries available could you 'repower' your old Tesla or Mustang Mach E with the new system?  After all the electric motors will still be in fine shape, and so long as the rest of the car wasn't thrashed it might be a great option.  

Nissan Leaf, you can replace the battery by testing each module etc.  Cars like TESLA?  No.  Battery is a complete unit so unless TESLA starts selling 100% new batteries....

You can buy used Nissan Leaf's for ~$1000 that have the battery problem.  IF you never want to drive more than 50 miles... and use it as a glorified golf cart... It will work.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

Tesla battery repair:

At GMC, we are able to go inside the battery pack, repair what is wrong right down to component, or cell level.  If the failure is cell related, we isolate the declining cell(s), neutralize them, and restore full functionality for a fraction of replacing the entire main battery pack.

https://grubermotors.com/services/model-s-main-battery-pack-repair/

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,187]

My bad, you wish to talk about ancient TESLA S batteries which actually have access to their tabs.  Modern TESLA 3 batteries as shown by Sandy Munro in his teardown there is NO ACCESS to do as your link says on individual cells and tabless will have even less... And there are only 4 modules.  Nissan Leaf battery has 16-->24 Modules?  One goes bad, you replace for $150.  Also you are not trying to test 1000 cells as is done in the TESLA which is horrifically SLOW and expensive.  Labor costs of doing so is insane. 

EDIT: You can also easily do the work yourself.  Takes no brain power.  Your link, you have to have specialized equipment etc.  Big ass difference.  The Nissan is made to be worked on, the Tesla is not and it is purposefully designed to NOT be worked on and repaired.  They are throwaway vehicles.  It makes manufacturing it simpler, but repairing?  Longevity?  No.  The utopian point is that if the battery lasts long enough and is reliable enough then the car will wear out before the battery and it does not matter...  There is some valid truth to that.  We are not there yet. 

Edited June 12, 2021 by footeab@yahoo.com

[Eric Gagen + 713]

6 hours ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Nissan Leaf, you can replace the battery by testing each module etc.  Cars like TESLA?  No.  Battery is a complete unit so unless TESLA starts selling 100% new batteries....

You can buy used Nissan Leaf's for ~$1000 that have the battery problem.  IF you never want to drive more than 50 miles... and use it as a glorified golf cart... It will work.

I didn't mean 'replace with a battery like the one you have, at a similar price point - I mean - hey now we have (fill in the blank with phosphor iron batteries, or carbon gel batteries or whatever) and they are half the weight and half the price of the old timey lithium cells, or last twice as long or whatever.  It would be something like getting a new crate motor for your car, except the battery is the key item that you replace, not the motor.  

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

5 hours ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

My bad, you wish to talk about ancient TESLA S batteries which actually have access to their tabs.  Modern TESLA 3 batteries as shown by Sandy Munro in his teardown there is NO ACCESS to do as your link says on individual cells and tabless will have even less... And there are only 4 modules.  Nissan Leaf battery has 16-->24 Modules?  One goes bad, you replace for $150.  Also you are not trying to test 1000 cells as is done in the TESLA which is horrifically SLOW and expensive.  Labor costs of doing so is insane. 

EDIT: You can also easily do the work yourself.  Takes no brain power.  Your link, you have to have specialized equipment etc.  Big ass difference.  The Nissan is made to be worked on, the Tesla is not and it is purposefully designed to NOT be worked on and repaired.  They are throwaway vehicles.  It makes manufacturing it simpler, but repairing?  Longevity?  No.  The utopian point is that if the battery lasts long enough and is reliable enough then the car will wear out before the battery and it does not matter...  There is some valid truth to that.  We are not there yet. 

I agree that the goal is to have a battery that outlives the car and that we aren't there yet. In the meantime Model 3 batteries are still being repaired and refurbished.

This video shows Gruber isolating a single dying cell in a Model 3 battery that they are repairing:

https://youtu.be/5wJiReT2R90?t=149

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,187]

1 hour ago, Jay McKinsey said:

I agree that the goal is to have a battery that outlives the car and that we aren't there yet. In the meantime Model 3 batteries are still being repaired and refurbished.

This video shows Gruber isolating a single dying cell in a Model 3 battery that they are repairing:

https://youtu.be/5wJiReT2R90?t=149

You should have linked to part one and the whole thing requires ~day of labor to do, days of shipping etc, specialty equipment = big ass no go for repair and the ONLY reason they do it is for new packs or relatively new packs as they are worth a Hell of a lot of money as they ARE the car.  A Nissan Leaf, or Chevy Bolt battery repair can be done in ~1 hour.  Seen guys do it in less than 45 minutes with nothing more than a simple socket set, screwdriver, and a voltmeter.  Why I was interested in buying a couple of them that were wrecked to make a single car.  Teslas?  Not a prayer of someone doing that in their shop and if you have someone else do it?  We are talking thousands of dollars in labor. 

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

57 minutes ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

You should have linked to part one and the whole thing requires ~day of labor to do, days of shipping etc, specialty equipment = big ass no go for repair and the ONLY reason they do it is for new packs or relatively new packs as they are worth a Hell of a lot of money as they ARE the car.  A Nissan Leaf, or Chevy Bolt battery repair can be done in ~1 hour.  Seen guys do it in less than 45 minutes with nothing more than a simple socket set, screwdriver, and a voltmeter.  Why I was interested in buying a couple of them that were wrecked to make a single car.  Teslas?  Not a prayer of someone doing that in their shop and if you have someone else do it?  We are talking thousands of dollars in labor. 

What specialty equipment did he use? He had a fancy charger that wasn't needed because they could only run it at a low capacity. Otherwise it was screwdrivers, sockets, putty knife and a voltmeter. A Chevy Bolt battery ways about the same as the Tesla so same equipment needed to maneuver and ship. The hard part was getting the cover off because of the caulking. How is that different on a Bolt battery? 

Edited June 13, 2021 by Jay McKinsey