Electric cars may make driving too expensive for middle classes, warns Vauxhall chief

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

@Jay McKinsey One for you!

https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1127629_battery-powered-electric-trains-will-soon-bring-cleaner-air-especially-in-europe

 

[Eric Gagen + 713]

19 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

General Motors has struck a deal with a mining company to source lithium, a key ingredient in electric-car batteries, from geothermal deposits in the US. The automaker is making a “multi-million dollar” investment in Australia’s Controlled Thermal Resources (CTR) to bolster the mining firm’s efforts to extract lithium from California’s Salton Sea Geothermal Field.

It’s a risky bet by GM, given that there is no full-scale lithium production in the US from geothermal wells. Most of the world’s lithium comes from two places: lithium brine deposits in South America’s “lithium triangle” of Argentina, Chile, and Bolivia; and hard-rock deposits in Australia. But its a sign that GM is trying to think holistically about the challenge of becoming an EV-only company by 2035.

https://www.theverge.com/2021/7/2/22559718/gm-lithium-ctr-ev-battery-investment-salton-sea

 

There is lithium brine mining in Nevada also  https://www.albemarle.com/news/albemarle-announces-expansion-of-nevada-site-to-increase-domestic-production-of-lithium.  The Salton sea is a mature geothermal province which has seen plenty of brine drilling, so the nature of the brines there and their extent should be well understood.  

[turbguy + 1,537]

22 hours ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

Rob, that article depends on some simple extrapolations and concludes that Lithium will be in short supply starting in a few years (other more detailed articles say in about 2027). Lithium is currently still in oversupply due to overoptimistic demand projections leading to development of new sources five years ago.

the article neglects two major trends: development of new types of sources (e.g., geothermal brine), and new battery types that don't use Lithium.  Eventually, only high-performance EVs will use much Lithium. Normal EVs and (especially) fixed utility and home batteries will not use Lithium, so the demand curve will flatten. Then, when EVs and existing fixed batteries finally begin reaching end-of-life, the lithium in their batteries will be recycled. The end game occurs when all vehicles on the road are EVs (2060?). Almost all new batteries will use recycled Lithium, so new Lithium will be needed only to make up recycling losses and any increase in the number of vehicles.

To make a valid prediction, you will need to evaluate all of these trends and create your own curves for each of them. The prognosticators totally blew it in 2015, and I have no reason to believe they are doing any better this time.

Copper may be a bigger problem. It can also be recycled, but there are a lot more competing uses for copper. Lithium batteries must use copper instead of aluminum conductors within the cells themselves. Fortunately, some non-lithium battery chemistries can use aluminum.

A lot of folks predicted peak oil to be sometime in the 1980's.

How'd that work out?

"Peak Lithium" will just be the same story...

Will the market demand more for it?  Yup!

Haven''t you priced buggy whips recently?

Edited July 8, 2021 by turbguy

[Dan Clemmensen + 1,011]

13 minutes ago, turbguy said:

A lot of folks predicted peak oil to be sometime in the 1980's.

How'd that work out?

"Peak Lithium" will just be the same story...

Will the market demand more for it?  Yup!

Haven''t you priced buggy whips recently?

$15.99 see:

https://www.amazon.com/JTI-Driving-Whip-Black/dp/B01NBAYZCE/ref=sr_1_14?crid=2BK6WZVNJ1MY3&dchild=1&keywords=buggy+whip&qid=1625766574&sprefix=buggy+whip%2Caps%2C266&sr=8-14

[Eric Gagen + 713]

39 minutes ago, turbguy said:

A lot of folks predicted peak oil to be sometime in the 1980's.

How'd that work out?

"Peak Lithium" will just be the same story...

Will the market demand more for it?  Yup!

Haven''t you priced buggy whips recently?

A month or two ago, I did a 'deep dive' on the lithium mining business to figure out my investing strategy.  After going through a LOT of data, at the end of the day, lithium will probably never be in critical shortage.  It's quite abundant, and right now the price is stupidly cheap.  It won't stay this cheap forever, but here's the catch - even if the price doubles, or triples, it is such a small part of the overall cost of a 'lithium' battery that it doesn't matter.  However if the price doubles or triples then there is ample capacity to ramp up supply.  Based on current reserves alone, the world could easily supply enough lithium at a workable market price to meet he entire world supply of automobiles with an extra billion or so for industrializing countries) without breaking a sweat.  

Here's the really interesting part though - nobody is looking for lithium to mine.  The 'new' mine sites in North Carolina, in Nevada, and the Salton sea of California, and other places were all deposits generally prospected in the late 1930's, 1940's and  early 1950's when lithium first became an industrial material of interest.  They discovered so much readily available brine and spudomine that they stopped looking, and we haven't had to start again since.  

All the prospective mines for spudomine are small in total rock volume and shallow by mining standards.  Compared with valuable and important things which really are hard to get ahold of like copper, the lithium mining ventures are nothing burgers.  The 'big boys' of the mining industry like Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton, Glencore, Anglo America, Zijin, and Vale' don't even bother with it unless they get some out of a mine by accident while in the process of doing something else.  

The era of large scale lithium mining hasn't begun yet, so you see what every miniature industry sees - herky jerky movements between supply and demand, as supply overshoots demand, and vice versa because the changes in demand each year are large, and unpredictable, while the total volume required is small.  

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

Stellantis, the new automaker created out of the merger between Fiat Chrysler and the PSA Group, has unveiled today its electrification plans across all brands.

It is based on a new electric vehicle platform with up to a 500-mile range that you can expect to power vehicles under the Dodge brand, Chrysler brand, and more.

Today, Stellantis announced what it described as “a comprehensive electrification strategy” that includes a new €30 billion investment.

Carlos Tavares, Chief Executive Officer of Stellantis, commented on the announcement:

“The customer is always at the heart of Stellantis and our commitment with this €30 billion plus investment plan is to offer iconic vehicles that have the performance, capability, style, comfort and electric range that fit seamlessly into their daily lives. The strategy we laid out today focuses the right amount of investment on the right technology to reach the market at the right time, ensuring that Stellantis powers the freedom of movement in the most efficient, affordable and sustainable way.”

Here are the main announcements made today:

• Plans to invest more than €30 billion through 2025 in electrification and software, while continuing to be the automotive efficiency frontrunner, with investment efficiency 30 percent better than industry average 
• Targeting over 70 percent of sales in Europe and over 40 percent in the United States to be low emission vehicle (LEV) by 2030
• All 14 brands committed to offering best-in-class fully electrified solutions
• Delivering BEVs that meet demands of customers, with ranges of 500-800 km/300-500 miles and class-leading fast charging capability of 32 km/20 miles per minute 
• Four flexible BEV-by-design platforms, scalable family of three electric drive modules and standardized battery packs to cover all brands and segments 
• Platforms designed for long life via software and hardware upgrades
• Global EV battery sourcing strategy of over 260GWh by 2030, supported by five “gigafactories” between Europe and North America
• Plans include dual battery chemistries: a high energy-density option and a nickel cobalt-free alternative by 2024
• Solid state battery technology introduction planned in 2026

The company’s new electric vehicles across all new brands will be based on a new BEV platform for different vehicle sizes:

• STLA Small, with a range up to 500 kilometers/300 miles
• STLA Medium, with a range up to 700 kilometers/440 miles
• STLA Large, with a range up to 800 kilometers/500 miles
• STLA Frame, with a range up to 800 kilometers/500 miles

On the customer-facing stuff, the company confirmed that Dodge will bring an all-electric pickup truck and an all-electric muscle car to market in 2024.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

Mercedes-Benz owner Daimler is stepping up the pace of its transition to electric mobility and plans to largely eliminate internal-combustion engines before the end of the decade.

“We are switching from EV first to EV only,” a high-ranking executive familiar with the plan told Automobilwoche, a sister publication of Automotive News Europe.

This means that every model series will have a full-electric version, while production, sales and structures will be switched to a business without diesel and gasoline engines.

https://jalopnik.com/mercedes-is-fast-tracking-its-ev-plans-1847258406

Edited July 10, 2021 by Jay McKinsey

[turbguy + 1,537]

This could make a considerable impact to both charge load-leveing and range anxiety for EV's.  It requires rather trivial engineering, and significant cooperation amongst EV manufacturers.  It also eases battery maintenance and recycling.

A entirely new industry could emerge!

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Nio-Plans-4000-Battery-Swapping-Stations-By-2025.html

Edited July 11, 2021 by turbguy

[Eric Gagen + 713]

2 hours ago, turbguy said:

This could make a considerable impact to both charge load-leveing and range anxiety for EV's.  It requires rather trivial engineering, and significant cooperation amongst EV manufacturers.  It also eases battery maintenance and recycling.

A entirely new industry could emerge!

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Nio-Plans-4000-Battery-Swapping-Stations-By-2025.html

The engineering is trivial, but the capital investment required is enormous.  Cooperation among EV manufacturers is an even bigger problem.  A lot of EV batteries are tucked into places which are exceedingly difficult to access on the twin theories that they need protection from incidental damage, and should be low (i.e. at roughly axle level) to prevent the vehicle from being top heavy.  These two factors would make it exceedingly difficult to access them for routine swapouts, to the degree that it would probably be faster to charge the battery than to gain acces to it. 

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

I think battery swap has its best potential in semi trucks. Much easier to reach an agreement on standardization and huge benefit.

[Dan Clemmensen + 1,011]

31 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

I think battery swap has its best potential in semi trucks. Much easier to reach an agreement on standardization and huge benefit.

If you are running a fleet, it's a lot simpler to swap the entire tractor than it would be to swap a battery. If we assume a BEV semi has a five-hour range, then each semi in your fleet will drive from depot to depot and swap the trailer onto a new tractor, and then recharge. If charging time is 50 minutes, you will need to purchase roughly 20% more tractors (worst case), but the trailers will move on down the road in less than five minutes after entering the depot.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

2 minutes ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

If you are running a fleet, it's a lot simpler to swap the entire tractor than it would be to swap a battery. If we assume a BEV semi has a five-hour range, then each semi in your fleet will drive from depot to depot and swap the trailer onto a new tractor, and then recharge. If charging time is 50 minutes, you will need to purchase roughly 20% more tractors (worst case), but the trailers will move on down the road in less than five minutes after entering the depot.

True as to fleets.  I was thinking of the long haul drivers who live in their trucks and use truck stops. 

[Dan Clemmensen + 1,011]

Just now, Jay McKinsey said:

True as to fleets.  I was thinking of the long haul drivers who live in their trucks and use truck stops. 

The battery would need to be  owned by whoever is providing the service instead of being part of the truck, and the driver would need to post a serious deposit, to be returned when the battery is returned. I see a logistical and administrative nightmare here, dwarfing all of the technical problems.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

3 minutes ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

The battery would need to be  owned by whoever is providing the service instead of being part of the truck, and the driver would need to post a serious deposit, to be returned when the battery is returned. I see a logistical and administrative nightmare here, dwarfing all of the technical problems.

It seems simple to me. Truck drivers are a business entity and this would just be a business function. They already are responsible for other people's valuable cargo and often have big loans and insurance on their trucks. Fuel is one of their biggest cost components, if they can save 30 or 40% by using electricity then it would be in their interest to sign up for such a service. The service would likely be owned by a consortium of truck manufacturers. There are only a few in the US that make long haul trucks. Tracking would be easy. 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 7/8/2021 at 3:12 PM, Jay McKinsey said:

Stellantis, the new automaker created out of the merger between Fiat Chrysler and the PSA Group, has unveiled today its electrification plans across all brands.

It is based on a new electric vehicle platform with up to a 500-mile range that you can expect to power vehicles under the Dodge brand, Chrysler brand, and more.

Today, Stellantis announced what it described as “a comprehensive electrification strategy” that includes a new €30 billion investment.

Carlos Tavares, Chief Executive Officer of Stellantis, commented on the announcement:

“The customer is always at the heart of Stellantis and our commitment with this €30 billion plus investment plan is to offer iconic vehicles that have the performance, capability, style, comfort and electric range that fit seamlessly into their daily lives. The strategy we laid out today focuses the right amount of investment on the right technology to reach the market at the right time, ensuring that Stellantis powers the freedom of movement in the most efficient, affordable and sustainable way.”

Here are the main announcements made today:

• Plans to invest more than €30 billion through 2025 in electrification and software, while continuing to be the automotive efficiency frontrunner, with investment efficiency 30 percent better than industry average 
• Targeting over 70 percent of sales in Europe and over 40 percent in the United States to be low emission vehicle (LEV) by 2030
• All 14 brands committed to offering best-in-class fully electrified solutions
• Delivering BEVs that meet demands of customers, with ranges of 500-800 km/300-500 miles and class-leading fast charging capability of 32 km/20 miles per minute 
• Four flexible BEV-by-design platforms, scalable family of three electric drive modules and standardized battery packs to cover all brands and segments 
• Platforms designed for long life via software and hardware upgrades
• Global EV battery sourcing strategy of over 260GWh by 2030, supported by five “gigafactories” between Europe and North America
• Plans include dual battery chemistries: a high energy-density option and a nickel cobalt-free alternative by 2024
• Solid state battery technology introduction planned in 2026

The company’s new electric vehicles across all new brands will be based on a new BEV platform for different vehicle sizes:

• STLA Small, with a range up to 500 kilometers/300 miles
• STLA Medium, with a range up to 700 kilometers/440 miles
• STLA Large, with a range up to 800 kilometers/500 miles
• STLA Frame, with a range up to 800 kilometers/500 miles

On the customer-facing stuff, the company confirmed that Dodge will bring an all-electric pickup truck and an all-electric muscle car to market in 2024.

It will be interesting to see the prices. 

[Eric Gagen + 713]

You can't make battery swappable fleet truck batteries practical as of right now - they simply weigh too much.  Estimates for the Tesla semi is that the batteries alone will weigh between 5 and 8 tons.  you aren't going to be making a 'quick change' of anything on that scale without a crew of specialist battery swappers and some very specialized heavy equipment.  

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

1 hour ago, Eric Gagen said:

You can't make battery swappable fleet truck batteries practical as of right now - they simply weigh too much.  Estimates for the Tesla semi is that the batteries alone will weigh between 5 and 8 tons.  you aren't going to be making a 'quick change' of anything on that scale without a crew of specialist battery swappers and some very specialized heavy equipment.  

Use multiple batteries, just like semi's have two fuel tanks. 

[turbguy + 1,537]

1 hour ago, Eric Gagen said:

You can't make battery swappable fleet truck batteries practical as of right now - they simply weigh too much.  Estimates for the Tesla semi is that the batteries alone will weigh between 5 and 8 tons.  you aren't going to be making a 'quick change' of anything on that scale without a crew of specialist battery swappers and some very specialized heavy equipment.  

I not not see any engineering challenges.

In fact, I suspect the entire process can be automated.

Pull your tractor-trailer into a spot, get a cup of coffee/use the bathroom, come back, sign the receipt, and it's done.

Edited July 12, 2021 by turbguy

[Eric Gagen + 713]

53 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Use multiple batteries, just like semi's have two fuel tanks. 

More pieces means more time.  It’s not impossible, just expensive or time consuming.

[Eric Gagen + 713]

26 minutes ago, turbguy said:

I not not see any engineering challenges.

In fact, I suspect the entire process can be automated.

Pull your tractor-trailer into a spot, get a cup of coffee/use the bathroom, come back, sign the receipt, and it's done.

I never said it wouldn’t be fast.  I said it would be expensive and capital intensive. I have been a participant in ‘automated’ movement of large, heavy but breakable objects in confined spaces (moving oilfield equipment around on platforms) It’s never as simple as it appears on paper, or the minds eye. 

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

3 minutes ago, Eric Gagen said:

I never said it wouldn’t be fast.  I said it would be expensive and capital intensive. I have been a participant in ‘automated’ movement of large, heavy but breakable objects in confined spaces (moving oilfield equipment around on platforms) It’s never as simple as it appears on paper, or the minds eye. 

A big version of this only a pull through instead of backing up https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cJKIIBCVsk4

[turbguy + 1,537]

3 hours ago, Eric Gagen said:

I never said it wouldn’t be fast.  I said it would be expensive and capital intensive. I have been a participant in ‘automated’ movement of large, heavy but breakable objects in confined spaces (moving oilfield equipment around on platforms) It’s never as simple as it appears on paper, or the minds eye. 

Disconnect. Lower it from the bottom of the tractor onto a platform, with the lowering mechanism IN THE TRACTOR.

Move the platform out via pushing in a new, preloaded, platform.  The platform shifts to provide rough battery positioning. 

The tractor's mechanism latches onto and raises the battery into verified position.

Reconnect and test.

Sign receipt, and leave.

Or some other way.

I suspect that early versions will require more CAPEX than a new ICE fueling station.

[Norm Young + 2]

Not sure your argument has legs.   Already the Tesla cybertruck is promised to reach a 500 km range, with a million mile battery.  

And at $70,000, it's not that much more expensive than a high-end pickup truck. Factor in that million mile battery, and it's very likely we'll leave the Cybertruck long before it leaves us.  So the small extra premium you pay for the vehicle, more than pays off in longevity that is some five times what a ICE vehicle can achieve.  You'll probably want to build it into your will. Finally a vehicle that doesn't decline in price like a rock falling off a cliff.

And that ignores the solid state batteries that are coming up fast.

So now your range goes from 500 km to conservatively 1,000 km.  And you can charge them up in less than 15 minutes.

Then take into account government action to dissuade the use of fossil fuels, either on the consumption side or on the production side which might drive the effective price of oil to $200 a barrel.

Now, which is the cheaper form of transportation?

Fast charging of 0% to 80% in less than 15 mins compared to 10% to 80% charge in 60 mins for Li-Ion batteries in an EV sedan.

• Lower manufacturing costs due to the elimination of anode host material and manufacturing costs. The company estimates that its batteries will have manufacturing costs 17% lower than Li-Ion.
• Significantly better range due to 80%+ higher energy density relative to Li-Ion batteries. Vehicle range is expected to improve by 50-80%.
• Significantly longer battery life. QuantumScape single layer cells have shown over 1,000 cycles to a median of over 90% energy energy retention.

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

10 minutes ago, Norm Young said:

Already the Tesla cybertruck is promised to reach a 500 km range, with a million mile battery.  

hmmm another Tesla promise