Venezuela can't meet promised June oil volumes.

[Rodent + 1,424]

 

platts: Venezuela's PDVSA has notified eight international customers it will not be able to meet its full crude supply commitments in June.  PDVSA is contractually obligated to supply 1.495 million b/d to those customers in June, but only has 694,000 b/d available for export. @jose chalhoub

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

It is tough to get people to come to work when their pay is less than the cost of the bus fare to get there.  Amazing what a 15,000% inflation rate will do to the currency.

Seriously, the situation in Venezuela is now way beyond appalling.  Your average Venezuelan who is not part of the 1% has lost over 20 lbs.  There is no milk nor cheese to be had.  Store shelves are so empty it is beyond belief.  General Mills just shut down their cereal plant; the boxes of Cheerios were all that was left in some stores, now they will be gone. 

It is my belief that the West and the World owes it to the Venezuelan people to rescue them from mass starvation. As a practical matter that largely means the US and British navies, bringing everything from floating bakeries and kitchens to troops and trucks right into harbor, with (armed) takeover of the country, block by block.  As each sector is cleared, the populace is fed with food from the boats, until the sector can be stabilized.  And there will be hospital ships and even tankers to bring in fuel.  At that point the oil fields will have to be taken over and Western experts brought in to re-start them, trade the oil to cover the cost of the re-start of the Venezuelan economy.  And that Maduro crowd will have to be picked up and ferried over to new bunks at Guantanamo  (he seems to like Cuba anyway, so welcome home). 

I don't think you can stabilize the currency so it looks like a foreign currency will have to do.  Probably the US dollar.  Won't be the first time.

Edited June 5, 2018 by Jan van Eck
scrivener error

[Guillaume Albasini + 851]

48 minutes ago, Jan van Eck said:

It is tough to get people to come to work when their pay is less than the cost of the bus fare to get there.  Amazing what a 15,000% inflation rate will do to the currency.

Seriously, the situation in Venezuela is now way beyond appalling.  Your average Venezuelan who is not part of the 1% has lost over 20 lbs.  There is no milk nor cheese to be had.  Store shelves are so empty it is beyond belief.  General Mills just shut down their cereal plant; the boxers of Cheerios were all that was left in some stores, now they will be gone. 

It is my belief that the West and the World owes it to the Venezuelan people to rescue them from mass starvation. As a practical matter that largely means the US and British navies, bringing everything from floating bakeries and kitchens to troops and trucks right into harbor, with (armed) takeover of the country, block by block.  As each sector is cleared, the populace is fed with food from the boats, until the sector can be stabilized.  And there will be hospital ships and even tankers to bring in fuel.  At that point the oil fields will have to be taken over and Western experts brought in to re-start them, trade the oil to cover the cost of the re-start of the Venezuelan economy.  And that Maduro crowd will have to be picked up and ferried over to new bunks at Guantanamo  (he seems to like Cuba anyway, so welcome home). 

I don't think you can stabilize the currency so it looks like a foreign currency will have to do.  Probably the US dollar.  Won't be the first time.

Do you really wanna start the iraqi mess again ?

The situation is appaling but we need to find a smarter way to deal with it than just add fuel to the fire.

[Rodent + 1,424]

2 minutes ago, Guillaume Albasini said:

The situation is appaling but we need to find a smarter way to deal with it than just add fuel to the fire.

In what way would you extend a lifeline to the Venezuelan people? How do you see this ending for them? (the people, not the government)

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

1 minute ago, Guillaume Albasini said:

Do you really wanna start the iraqi mess again ?

The situation is appaling but we need to find a smarter way to deal with it than just add fuel to the fire.

Sorry, Guillaume, I don't see your comparison.  "Iraqi mess"?  No chance.  Nobody is going to be shooting at the salvors. Except maybe to hijack the bread truck.  You overlook that right now some 5,000 Venezuelans a day are walking South the 130 miles from the southern-most town to the Brasil border, just to find something to eat.  There is so little food left for the masses that mass starvation is the inexorable outcome. Are you prepared to stand by and let 30 million people starve?  I think the Venezuelan people have had quite enough of Mr. Maduro. Nothing like a fabulous hot meal, complete with meat and potatoes and asparagus and beets and a salad and two glasses of milk and a dessert of cheese and yogurt to change the minds of even the most stalwart Maduro supporter. 

[Guillaume Albasini + 851]

1 hour ago, Rodent said:

In what way would you extend a lifeline to the Venezuelan people? How do you see this ending for them? (the people, not the government)

I won't pretend to have the solution to the venezuelan crisis.

But I can list what the venezuelan people need :

- Food availaility

- A stable currency

- Economic recovery

- More democracy

 

At some point I think that a kind of negociation will be necessary between the Maduro government and the international community. He could get economic help and some kind of assurance that he will not be overthrown by undemocratic means or foreign interference in exchange of opening the country to humanitarian aid (World Food Program for instance) and political and economical reforms.  The venezuelan opposition should be involved some way in the decision making process to try to put an end to the deep divide in the venezuelan society.

Maduro is thnking that the US are trying to overthrow him (and its' probably true) so it would be better to involve the UN, the EU or the latin-american countries in the process to reduce the "yankee-imperialists-trying-to-steal-the-venezuelan-oil" fears.

The Venezuelan gouvernment should get some help to save PDVSA from drowning and to restore oil production. A share of the oil benefits should be then invested in economic diversification to reduce oil dependence.

[Rodent + 1,424]

25 minutes ago, Guillaume Albasini said:

At some point I think that a kind of negociation will be necessary between the Maduro government and the international community.

Because Maduro has proven to be a reasonable, rational man willing to discuss views other than his own.

26 minutes ago, Guillaume Albasini said:

The venezuelan opposition should be involved some way in the decision making process

agree

27 minutes ago, Guillaume Albasini said:

The Venezuelan gouvernment should get some help to save PDVSA from drowning and to restore oil production. A share of the oil benefits should be then invested in economic diversification to reduce oil dependence.

Foreign oil companies are not interested in sinking money into the mess that is now Venezuela, and under Maduro's reign, this isn't going to happen. They tried that years ago and I'm sure almost every single one of those companies are sorry they did so. Venezuela might have significant reserves, but that's means nothing in a country run by a govt that could seize oil assets anytime they choose, and have a history of doing just that.

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

18 minutes ago, Guillaume Albasini said:

 

 

 

At some point I think that a kind of negociation will be necessary between the Maduro government and the international community. He could get economic help and some kind of assurance that he will not be overthrown by undemocratic means or foreign interference in exchange of opening the country to humanitarian aid (World Food Program for instance) and political and economical reforms.  The venezuelan opposition should be involved some way in the decision making process to try to put an end to the deep divide in the venezuelan society.

 

See, here's the problem with Maduro in a nutshell:  there is no place for him to go.  Maduro has no exit strategy, except possibly to flee to Cuba for his retirement, assuming the Cubans are going to pay to support him and his retinue.  If Maduro stays in Venezuela and he does not have his private army to protect him, he will be arrested by the people, put on trial, and hanged.  It is absolutely inevitable that if Maduro is out of power, and no longer the dictator with the guns, he is dead.  He will be publicly hanged. Think of it as the Mussolini Resolution.

In that sense, Maduro is in the same boat as Assad in Syria and Putin in Russia.  They have no exit strategy.  They cannot go to any place that has a comfortable lifestyle, as they are not welcome. So you get this progressively more repressive autocracy and the ruin of the country as Maduro hangs on.  The next stop is mass starvation. 

So, yes, Maduro needs to be overthrown.  As for the "opposition," there is none.  The Opposition is either in jail, or has fled, or has been killed. Nobody can "negotiate" with Maduro as any change to the apple cart will lead to his removal - so he negotiates with nobody. Venezuela is headed for the zombie apocalypse, and only an actual occupation of the country (and removal of Maduro) is going to rescue it. 

Ultimately, to get back from the abyss, a new type of Marshall Plan is going to have to come in. Since the world is now a Debtor Planet, the question is how to pay for it.  And that solution is the vast pool of oil underneath, waiting to be tapped once again.  Will it require the Americans?  But of course.  Will the Americans ultimately come to the rescue?  Sadly, probably not.  I don't picture Donald Trump seeing that the starvation of the people of Venezuela is a matter to divert him from attending at another of his resort's golf games. It may end up that the neighbors, led by Colombia and Brasil, will have to take over. It sure is a huge mess.

[Guillaume Albasini + 851]

2 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

Sorry, Guillaume, I don't see your comparison.  "Iraqi mess"?  No chance.  Nobody is going to be shooting at the salvors. Except maybe to hijack the bread truck.  You overlook that right now some 5,000 Venezuelans a day are walking South the 130 miles from the southern-most town to the Brasil border, just to find something to eat.  There is so little food left for the masses that mass starvation is the inexorable outcome. Are you prepared to stand by and let 30 million people starve?  I think the Venezuelan people have had quite enough of Mr. Maduro. Nothing like a fabulous hot meal, complete with meat and potatoes and asparagus and beets and a salad and two glasses of milk and a dessert of cheese and yogurt to change the minds of even the most stalwart Maduro supporter. 

Your  "Nobody is going to be shooting at the salvors" sentence remind me of the "American Soldiers would be greeted in Iraq with flowers". More than 4000 US casualties later the 2003 prediction seems rather overoptimistic. You can't erase easily 20 years of bolivarian anti-imperialistic propaganda and a portion of the venezuelan society is still thinking that the US are behind all the problems of the country.

The last thing the Venezuelan people need is to add a war to the economic, humanitarian and political crisis.

.

[Rodent + 1,424]

1 hour ago, Guillaume Albasini said:

The last thing the Venezuelan people need is to add a war to the economic, humanitarian and political crisis.

Hmm... That might be precisely what they need to end Maduro's oppressive regime. I don't see a peaceful solution on the horizon. Maduro will not go gently into that good night.

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

1 hour ago, Guillaume Albasini said:

 a portion of the venezuelan society is still thinking that the US are behind all the problems of the country.

 

.

Nobody in Venezuela thinks that. 

In any event, here is the totally bloodless way to do the "invasion."  The navy simply takes over some very small speck of isolated Venezuela, some area with a few hundred people.  It treats the locals, and the transient workers in the adjacent oilfields that have not yet quit, to a fabulous banquet.  After the feed, the army/navy announce that all the locals are now on the payroll of the US Government, and first payday is today.  Packages of $1 bills of one hundred each are handed out, as a sign-up bonus. Fresh shirts are handed out, together with new Levis; think of these guys as walking billboards. All the transients are sent back to Caracas complete with a 40-lb package of food:  milk, cheese,  meat, eggs, veggies, fruit.  How long do you think it takes for word of the bounty of the Americans to spread? 

Maduro is instant history.  The next problem will be crowd control.  

[Rodent + 1,424]

1 hour ago, Guillaume Albasini said:

a portion of the venezuelan society is still thinking that the US are behind all the problems of the country..

 

8 minutes ago, Jan van Eck said:

Nobody in Venezuela thinks that. 

We have some native Venezuelans here who probably can shed some light on the attitude of those in Venezuela as far as the United States is concerned. @jose chalhoub?

[jose chalhoub + 388]

sorry for the late reply gentlemen and ladies involved in this outstanding and engaging discussion. First of all, nothing of this surprises me at all, due to the critical state of venezuelan oil production and the tremendously inept management of pdvsa, which by no means knows anything about oil but only to get the most out of a wrecking ship, sadly but this is the true, and if no massive change is done, then pdvsa will become a net importer of oil and gasoline in less than 5 years or even less. And well regarding the attitudes of venezuelan people towards the USA, i believe that in most of the cases have been consumers and admirers of the U.S. pop culture, baseball league and have been influence by U.S. I think that venezuelans dont mind much about extreme ideologies especially when it comes to being "anti imperialist" since many many venezuelans adore and love to go to miami if they have a chance, i dare to say. Maybe they are kinda warier against what Russia or China means rather than what the U.S. traditionally meant for the country.  This is what i think about this point. 

[ANENRO_ISHIM + 3]

I strongly agree with Jose Chalhoub's comments.

The current PdVSA administration have no clue about petroleum administration and much less, how to solve problems. Nicolas Maduro, being uneducated, brought additional misery as to what Hugo Chavez started. PdVSA's current equipment is broken down and in desperate need of replacement. The Chinese had enough of Maduro's imbelicity and no one wants to step forward and risk sending additional money, because we all know, the money will go straight to Maduro's pockets.

The Venezuelan people need help and they need first for Nicolas Maduro leave Venezuela so things can move forward and correct the mess Chavez started in 1998 and continued by the bus driver, Nicolas Maduro.