Should the US government be on the hook for $15 billion?

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

5 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

Jay, I agree with your use of the word "rapacious". That is exactly what is going to happen to the overburdened American taxpayer who will get shafted with the bills for expensive Green energy. The average guy who voted Democrat last time out is getting repaid with a rapidly rising cost of living and reduced standard of living.

Part of that bill will be compensation to the Keystone folks who attempted to bring affordable energy to America and were denied permission which had already been given.

Coal is the expensive energy that can't compete in the market place. 

"PJM Interconnection's 2022-23 capacity market auction cleared at some of the lowest levels in auction history with the RTO price clearing at $50/MW-day due to a lower load forecast, lower offer prices from resources and other factors, the grid operator said June 2.

Renewable energy resources, nuclear units and new natural gas-fired generators saw the greatest increases in cleared capacity, while coal units saw the largest decrease, PJM said in a statement."

Losing out in this auction is what led to a bunch of the coal closure announcements I posted. Expect more of the same in the future.

 

Full permission hadn't been given for the pipeline. There were multiple injunctions and law suits in place continuously. That is why US constriction hadn't started. They had not even completed the acquisition of the the right of way. They spent money on the unreasonable belief that no one would say no to them.

[Ecocharger + 1,446]

50 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Coal is the expensive energy that can't compete in the market place. 

"PJM Interconnection's 2022-23 capacity market auction cleared at some of the lowest levels in auction history with the RTO price clearing at $50/MW-day due to a lower load forecast, lower offer prices from resources and other factors, the grid operator said June 2.

Renewable energy resources, nuclear units and new natural gas-fired generators saw the greatest increases in cleared capacity, while coal units saw the largest decrease, PJM said in a statement."

Losing out in this auction is what led to a bunch of the coal closure announcements I posted. Expect more of the same in the future.

 

Full permission hadn't been given for the pipeline. There were multiple injunctions and law suits in place continuously. That is why US constriction hadn't started. They had not even completed the acquisition of the the right of way. They spent money on the unreasonable belief that no one would say no to them.

No, Jay, the Presidential permit was withdrawn by the new guy in the White House. That's why they didn't go ahead. Why should they file for further permits if the underlying permit was under rescission? That makes no sense.

Perhaps the White House people can set up a public donations fund to compensate Keystone for the treatment they received. That would possibly settle this claim.

Edited July 12, 2021 by Ecocharger

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

2 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

No, Jay, the Presidential permit was withdrawn by the new guy in the White House. That's why they didn't go ahead. Why should they file for further permits if the underlying permit was under rescission? That makes no sense.

Perhaps the White House people can set up a public donations fund to compensate Keystone for the treatment they received. That would possibly settle this claim.

There was no guarantee that if the permit were left in place that they would ever be able to build it. In fact they were a long ways from getting an ok from all parties. And we are even further from owing them money. 

[Ecocharger + 1,446]

9 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

There was no guarantee that if the permit were left in place that they would ever be able to build it. In fact they were a long ways from getting an ok from all parties. And we are even further from owing them money. 

Jay, it looks like they have a good argument under "national treatment", just like many other cases in the NAFTA tribunal have found. I think that we might as well start reaching for our wallets on this one.

No, those permits are fairly routine, I have never heard of a problem which was not solvable.

[nsdp + 449]

14 hours ago, Eric Gagen said:

Canada already has enough oil for its needs.  The rest has to be exported to somewhere else.  The US has the demand  in the form of a massive refining industry and an existing pipeline network, so it makes sense to send it there.  The US doesn’t actually need the oil either, but it’s far better set up to export oil and products than the ports and infrastructure of Canada is, so a super simplified explanation of the actual flow is as follows:

Canadian crude to other parts of Canada and the US

US crude to US refineries and for export

Refined products from US refineries made using US and Canadian crude for export

Eric, First exclude the refineries at Corpus and east of Lake Charles.  Keystone has no connections by pipeline for this quality crude other than by barge.   the only way there is refining capacity for this crude is if Saudi Arabia decides to import Canadian crude instead of their own Saudi heavy at Motiva.   Or Exxon could shut in their production from Green Canyon or Mexico would shut in Maya processing at Deer Park and buy Canadian (in your dreams). Marathon has commitments to units producing Midland Sour as does Phillips 66 at Old Ocean.  If yo  u are old enough to remember the LoVaca settlement from 1978, Valero still has obligations to PEMEX  for another 9 years from the Coastal States spinoff. Same sort of restriction that means Valero cannot move HQ anywhere other than Corpus..  Three Rivers cannot run anything heavier than Eagle Ford. LLyondale is the only refiner I know of with sufficient hydrocracking  desulfurization processing capcaity to run this crude and that is 117,000 b/d. Shell in Beaumont would be cutting their won production and the other refineries have "ship or pay" contracts for the expansions direct to the Gulf coast. Enterprise has finished a 1  million barrel/d line from Wink to Webster and EPIC Midstream has  a 400,000b/d sour crude line Jupiter has another  line complete as far as Three Rivers. Epic effectively killed the US refinery market for additional sour crude in the Houston Beaumont market two years ago.  GATX export dock would require expansion and ozone permits are not available.

The growth of Permian production by six million barrels/day since 2012 means there is no home for another 700,000 barrels day for at least 10 years.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

2 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

Jay, it looks like they have a good argument under "national treatment", just like many other cases in the NAFTA tribunal have found. I think that we might as well start reaching for our wallets on this one.

No, those permits are fairly routine, I have never heard of a problem which was not solvable.

So in your world permits that go to the Supreme Court are routine?

On April 15, 2020, District Judge Brian Morris issued a suspension for the pipeline's construction after the plaintiffs, the Northern Plains Resource Council, alleged the project was improperly reauthorised back in 2017.^[93][94] In the summary judgment, the judge agreed that the Endangered Species Act was violated, thereby voiding the permit.

On May 28, 2020, the United States Court of Appeals of the Ninth Circuit denied a motion to stay the District Judge's ruling.^[95] This prompted Solicitor General Noel J. Francisco to file an application for stay to the Supreme Court. The application was granted consideration.

On July 6, 2020, in the US Army Corps of Engineers v. Northern Plains Resource Council case, the Supreme Court of the US ordered all Keystone XL work be halted.^[

 

There are numerous other holdouts and lawsuits.

Edited July 12, 2021 by Jay McKinsey

[nsdp + 449]

46 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

Jay, it looks like they have a good argument under "national treatment", just like many other cases in the NAFTA tribunal have found. I think that we might as well start reaching for our wallets on this one.

No, those permits are fairly routine, I have never heard of a problem which was not solvable.

The problem that is not solvable at this time is construction permits for the electric service that every pipeline has to front to Southwest Power Pool for system upgrades.  That has complicated the switch from SPP to ERCOT for teh city of Lubbock  who has to pay about $45 million for transmission lines built from Anadarko Ok to Lubbock 9 years ago. In Keystones case there is about 400 miles of 69KV that has to be replaced by 230kv or 115kv to insure locked rotor voltage for Keystone to be able to start the motors for  the pumps.  Several wind farms have come in and changed the electrical  inertial mass of the lines. the last study was done in 2012 and is invalid after 2015.

[nsdp + 449]

3 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

No, Jay, the Presidential permit was withdrawn by the new guy in the White House. That's why they didn't go ahead. Why should they file for further permits if the underlying permit was under rescission? That makes no sense.

Perhaps the White House people can set up a public donations fund to compensate Keystone for the treatment they received. That would possibly settle this claim.

Keystone should have filed for NEW grid studies and cost estimates immediately after they had their permit restored in 2017. Major grid improvements have to receive certificates to construct.  It is called a Certificate of Public Convenience and Necessity.  The certificates require current engineering  work which includes all material changes to the grid since the last study and must have been completed in the last 5 years. . If you knew enough to know(which you obviously don't) you would have already checked the SPP connection que and realized that Keystone is to longer planned for on the SPP constraints and needs annual review.  You obviously know as much as a fence post about planning permitting and constructing a pipeline. 

Edited July 12, 2021 by nsdp
omitted date

[nsdp + 449]

10 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

They bought a bunch of pipe last year when steel prices were rock bottom. Their mitigation date is now, with steel prices at record highs. Would be very amusing if they make a profit on the pipe.

That was only about 70 miles of pipe.  The remaining 1200 miles has been sitting in pipeyards for the last 10 years.

[nsdp + 449]

8 hours ago, ronwagn said:

Fossil fuels built America and will continue to do so. This will just give wind and solar an unfair advantage that will cost American consumers and taxpayers a lot more money. It will also disadvantage America as a worldwide leader and competitor in all areas. Natural gas has made America the leader in improving air quality worldwide, with one or two minor exceptions such as Denmark. Anyone who falls for the Green Nightmare is responsible for what comes out of it. Meanwhile China and Russia will improve their status. Anyone with any sense should see this. Hopefully they will pay the price at the ballot box. 

This country started and grew on the backs of horses, mules, donkey's, canals  rivers,  farmers and slaves.   Railroads and coal were deminimis before 1845 .  And non existent in the first 200 years.

[nsdp + 449]

3 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

No, Jay, the Presidential permit was withdrawn by the new guy in the White House. That's why they didn't go ahead. Why should they file for further permits if the underlying permit was under rescission? That makes no sense.

Perhaps the White House people can set up a public donations fund to compensate Keystone for the treatment they received. That would possibly settle this claim.

Keystone let their eclectic power service certificates lapse in 2015. If they built it in 2016 how would they operate without  electric pumps?  and no air permits for infernal combustion engines?

Edited July 12, 2021 by nsdp

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,187]

7 hours ago, -trance said:

You can't stay on topic.

 

Just who can't stay on  topic? 

Still waiting for you to admit aviation has no other source... or that most diesel powered construction/farming has no other choice  than diesel and neither do any of the Ships.  Nor does a large portion of the gasoline used.  Guess in your universe trees never need to be cut, lawns mowed...

Still waiting for you to admit that all those hydrocarbons used in industrial processes are not there just for "energy" in your delusions...

Still waiting for you to admit basic 5th grade math 5% of 40% is all of 2% which in no way comes close to equaling 11%, let alone 40%...

[Rob Plant + 2,747]

9 hours ago, ronwagn said:

I will enjoy showing how wrong you are about the pace of electrical vehicles percentage of the market. Even more so about the growth of natural gas use throughout the world. There are incredible resources of natural gas on land around the planet and far more in the oceans. Natural gas will be providing most of the electricity that EV's use. Natural gas will also be handling more of the ships, trucks and buses around the world. Public resistance to wind turbines and solar farms will increase as they proliferate and they realize they are paying higher power bills to look at them. Then they will realize they need to be replaced regularly and buried somewhere. 

NG can be green also

There are carbon zero gas plants being built right as we speak.

https://www.mcdermott-investors.com/news/press-release-details/2020/McDermott-Awarded-Pre-FEED-for-NET-Power-UK-Project/default.aspx

There are also many blue hydrogen plants being built that use carbon capture to make these plants carbon neutral.

I think a sensible mix of renewables, nuclear and NG plants is the way forward, how much the sun shines and the wind blows in a region will determine the mix along with the cost obviously.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

3 minutes ago, Rob Plant said:

NG can be green also

There are carbon zero gas plants being built right as we speak.

https://www.mcdermott-investors.com/news/press-release-details/2020/McDermott-Awarded-Pre-FEED-for-NET-Power-UK-Project/default.aspx

There are also many blue hydrogen plants being built that use carbon capture to make these plants carbon neutral.

I think a sensible mix of renewables, nuclear and NG plants is the way forward, how much the sun shines and the wind blows in a region will determine the mix along with the cost obviously.

The link describes a contract for a design, not building a plant. "Its goal is to design a new way to generate power from hydrocarbons without releasing CO_2"  

 

[Rob Plant + 2,747]

7 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

The link describes a contract for a design, not building a plant. "Its goal is to design a new way to generate power from hydrocarbons without releasing CO_2"  

 

They have already proven the tech and built the test facility in 2016

The projects will be built in the UK and have government support.

Why don't you like the idea of using NG with zero Co2 emissions???

Also are you against using NG for blue hydrogen with carbon capture??

NG is an incredibly useful resource we should make more use of IMO and is far less polluting than coal, oil, diesel etc

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

1 minute ago, Rob Plant said:

They have already proven the tech and built the test facility in 2016

The projects will be built in the UK and have government support.

Why don't you like the idea of using NG with zero Co2 emissions???

Also are you against using NG for blue hydrogen with carbon capture??

NG is an incredibly useful resource we should make more use of IMO and is far less polluting than coal, oil, diesel etc

I'm not against carbon capture. I am just skeptical that it will work. That press release clearly says they are working on "designing a new way" not building a new plant based on a successful prototype. 

[Eric Gagen + 713]

7 hours ago, nsdp said:

Eric, First exclude the refineries at Corpus and east of Lake Charles.  Keystone has no connections by pipeline for this quality crude other than by barge.   the only way there is refining capacity for this crude is if Saudi Arabia decides to import Canadian crude instead of their own Saudi heavy at Motiva.   Or Exxon could shut in their production from Green Canyon or Mexico would shut in Maya processing at Deer Park and buy Canadian (in your dreams). Marathon has commitments to units producing Midland Sour as does Phillips 66 at Old Ocean.  If yo  u are old enough to remember the LoVaca settlement from 1978, Valero still has obligations to PEMEX  for another 9 years from the Coastal States spinoff. Same sort of restriction that means Valero cannot move HQ anywhere other than Corpus..  Three Rivers cannot run anything heavier than Eagle Ford. LLyondale is the only refiner I know of with sufficient hydrocracking  desulfurization processing capcaity to run this crude and that is 117,000 b/d. Shell in Beaumont would be cutting their won production and the other refineries have "ship or pay" contracts for the expansions direct to the Gulf coast. Enterprise has finished a 1  million barrel/d line from Wink to Webster and EPIC Midstream has  a 400,000b/d sour crude line Jupiter has another  line complete as far as Three Rivers. Epic effectively killed the US refinery market for additional sour crude in the Houston Beaumont market two years ago.  GATX export dock would require expansion and ozone permits are not available.

The growth of Permian production by six million barrels/day since 2012 means there is no home for another 700,000 barrels day for at least 10 years.

Mexican Mayan crude production is dropped so much that US refineries are importing other grades of heavy crude to make up for it, and there used to be large volumes of heavy Venezuelan crude that were processed in the gulf coast region also.  

Deer Park just had a massive upgrade and expansion, and they are importing heavy sour crude because Mexico can't deliver enough to feed it.

Exxon's production in the Gulf of Mexico isn't very large.  It's true that there are significant volumes of sour crude from the Gulf of Mexico, but most of this is from Shell, and goes to refineries in Louisiana, or for export via the LOOP port. 

It is true that Permian production has ballooned incredibly, but a significant portion of that crude goes straight to export - the US refining complexes along the gulf coast are set up to run heavy sour crudes, and the Permian shale oil production is light sweet crude.  It fetches a premium price on international markets, so it gathers a higher profit via direct export than it would be being refined, and then sold as products.   

Your back of the envelope analysis of refining capacity leaves out Exxon Baytown, Valero Texas City and several other major ones which are set up to run heavy sour crudes.  

The market and objective behind Keystone XL was always the same - substitute water-borne imports of heavy sour crude with pipeline borne Canadian crude at a discount price to increase profit margins of US gulf coast refineries geared up to export refined products.    

The cancelation of Keystone XL has 3 losers and 1 winner:

Losers: The Canadian heavy oil industry which cannot increase production, the US gulf coast refiners who have a restricted profit margin, and the Keystone pipeline company

Winners: Waterborne importers of heavy sour crudes to the US

Note that US consumers aren't on the list of winners and losers - that's on purpose, because the project never had as an objective doing anything to alter supply and demand in the domestic market of the United States. 

[-trance + 114]

10 hours ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Just who can't stay on  topic? 

Still waiting for you to admit aviation has no other source... or that most diesel powered construction/farming has no other choice  than diesel and neither do any of the Ships.  Nor does a large portion of the gasoline used.  Guess in your universe trees never need to be cut, lawns mowed...

Still waiting for you to admit that all those hydrocarbons used in industrial processes are not there just for "energy" in your delusions...

Still waiting for you to admit basic 5th grade math 5% of 40% is all of 2% which in no way comes close to equaling 11%, let alone 40%...

I can make jet fuel without oil. 

You can even launch rockets with liquid oxygen and hydrogen.  No oil.

Bio diesel is trivial to make...

Oil is for energy.  Simple, it is even called "energy" on the markets.

I clearly showed you where the oil is used, in an easy to read graph.    89% is burnt. You can ramble about bad math all you want.

Matter can be manipulated with energy.  Simple...  you admitted that yourself then try to backtrack.

You will be waiting a long time to be right with me.  Ask Ward.

Edited July 12, 2021 by -trance

[-trance + 114]

On 7/11/2021 at 1:30 AM, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Every chemical etc CAN come from plant matter, that has NEVER been in question. 

Say it again.

[Ecocharger + 1,446]

13 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

So in your world permits that go to the Supreme Court are routine?

On April 15, 2020, District Judge Brian Morris issued a suspension for the pipeline's construction after the plaintiffs, the Northern Plains Resource Council, alleged the project was improperly reauthorised back in 2017.^[93][94] In the summary judgment, the judge agreed that the Endangered Species Act was violated, thereby voiding the permit.

On May 28, 2020, the United States Court of Appeals of the Ninth Circuit denied a motion to stay the District Judge's ruling.^[95] This prompted Solicitor General Noel J. Francisco to file an application for stay to the Supreme Court. The application was granted consideration.

On July 6, 2020, in the US Army Corps of Engineers v. Northern Plains Resource Council case, the Supreme Court of the US ordered all Keystone XL work be halted.^[

 

There are numerous other holdouts and lawsuits.

Lower courts and activist local judges do not add up to a problem. Presidential permits are overarching, indicating federal authority over interstate commerce. Much ado about nothing.

[Ecocharger + 1,446]

35 minutes ago, -trance said:

I can make jet fuel without oil. 

You can even launch rockets with liquid oxygen and hydrogen.  No oil.

Bio diesel is trivial to make...

Oil is for energy.  Simple, it is even called "energy" on the markets.

I clearly showed you where the oil is used, in an easy to read graph.    89% is burnt. You can ramble about bad math all you want.

Matter can be manipulated with energy.  Simple...  you admitted that yourself then try to backtrack.

You will be waiting a long time to be right with me.  Ask Ward.

Bottom line, oil demand is and will be increasing for the foreseeable future. Oil may lose a percentage of the overall energy market, but still increase in absolute terms.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

49 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

Lower courts and activist local judges do not add up to a problem. Presidential permits are overarching, indicating federal authority over interstate commerce. Much ado about nothing.

Ah yes that lower local court called the Supreme Court of the United Sates.  You are such a dufus.

Oh and if you had any brains at all you would know that the Constitution gives power over interstate commerce to Congress, not the President.

Article 1, Section 8, Clause 3 of the U.S. Constitution

The Congress shall have power...To regulate commerce with foreign nations, and among the several states, and with the Indian tribes;

Don't you ever get tired of making an intellectual fool of yourself for all to see?

Edited July 12, 2021 by Jay McKinsey

[-trance + 114]

30 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

Bottom line, oil demand is and will be increasing for the foreseeable future. Oil may lose a percentage of the overall energy market, but still increase in absolute terms.

I agree oil is not going away.  The energy it provides is useful.  I put gas in my car today.

I just can't stand stupid "arguments" like you can't have shoes, or glasses, etc. without oil.

The petrochemical industry really is mostly a byproduct of the energy industry. The profits come from the 89% that is burnt, the 11% of side-products is gravy.  Or expensive waste...

Edited July 12, 2021 by -trance

[Ecocharger + 1,446]

1 hour ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Ah yes that lower local court called the Supreme Court of the United Sates.  You are such a dufus.

Oh and if you had any brains at all you would know that the Constitution gives power over interstate commerce to Congress, not the President.

Article 1, Section 8, Clause 3 of the U.S. Constitution

The Congress shall have power...To regulate commerce with foreign nations, and among the several states, and with the Indian tribes;

Don't you ever get tired of making an intellectual fool of yourself for all to see?

Like Congress is not a federal body? You lost me there, Jay, I always thought that Congress was part of the federal government, which has authority over interstate commerce, and the Supreme Court overrules the lower state courts which you referred to. Supreme Court will uphold the federal decision.

Again, none of this adds up to a problem. And none if it is relevant to the NAFTA decision. Be prepared to open your wallet for the Keystone folks. Jay, don't cry too much, you always knew that the energy transition would be expensive.

Edited July 12, 2021 by Ecocharger

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

8 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

Like Congress is not a federal body? You lost me there, Jay, I always thought that Congress was part of the federal government, which has authority over interstate commerce, and overrules the lower state courts which you referred to. Supreme Court will uphold the federal decision.

Again, none of this adds up to a problem. And none if it is relevant to the NAFTA decision. Be prepared to open your wallet for the Keystone folks. Jay don't cry too much, you always knew that the energy transition would be expensive.

Congress conveyed a limited authority on the President to issue permits. The Supreme Court is not a rubber stamp, the fact that they enforced an injunction is huge.  It all has a very real bearing on whether there is bias and if bias is found then most importantly on damage calculations.