NordStream2

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

16 minutes ago, Starschy said:

The 38 bcm becomes active in 2025 its all long documented by Gazprom.

Poland is in great trouble because they dont get the LNG Volume. Annually the get 4 bcm a year instead of 10 bcm meaning about one third and the rest is by Gazprom. Poland anounced closing of the Gazprom contract end of 2022. As example between June - sept 2021 they imported only below 1 bcm probably fear the relative high price then.

The LNG way is not for big volume contracts.

I think their Swinoujscie (Bay of Pigs?) place only got 5 bcm total capacity.

[Tomasz + 1,608]

In the context of Ukraine, let me note that Russia is currently implementing lets say the Venezuelan or Iranian variant on Ukraine in accordance with the best practices of the United States.
So there will be no war despite the hysteria and warmongering, but it will be or is already being calmly implemented during the next winter, let's call it Venezuelan variant by:

-no gas reverse to Ukraine via Hungary
-no thermal coal exports from Russia, Donbass and Kazakhstan to Ukraine
-no electricity exports from Russia and Belarus to Ukraine

In the more radical variants, there is still a very painful for Ukrainians lack of Belarusian diesel exports to Ukraine and even no exports of nuclear fuel by Rosatom to Ukraine, although this would already threaten us with a second Chernobyl and probably would be met with a very harsh attitude from the international community, because its  something else oppressing the Ukrainians being the equivalent of the US attitude towards Cuba after 1959 and something else a vision of a new Chernobyl, so it would be a very radical option for Putin and Lukashenko.

The Ukrainians are aware of the whip the Belarusians have on them - no diesel and within a week the whole Ukraine is standing. I recommend it in the context of the Polish border conflict with Belarus.

in general, it can be seen that the West is slowly letting go of Ukraine, and the more it de facto forgives it, the more it growls and shows how it will defend it. The same scenario is carried out in Taiwan. This option is quite dangerous for the West because it may end with a solution such as the Suez crisis for France and Great Britain.

Dmitry Trenin tweet from today

Quote

Because seeing Ukraine turn into a U.S.-controlled unsinkable aircraft carrier parked on Russia’s border just a few hundred miles from Moscow is no more acceptable to Kremlin than that other unsinkable aircraft carrier, Cuba, was to the WH So Putin has come to believe that force is the only language the West really understands. Hence, Russia’s foreign policy is increasingly reaching for military instruments when it comes to relations with the US&NATO.

 

Edited November 21, 2021 by Tomasz

[Tomasz + 1,608]

Maybe "freedom gas" will rescue Ukraine this winter?

But probably not because China as highest bidder is a new best friend of US shale frackers.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/LNG-Tanker-Rates-Reach-All-Time-Highs-On-Soaring-Demand.html

[Tomasz + 1,608]

Polish bussiness press from this week one year  after huge victory over Gazprom. We won 1,5 bilion $ against Gazprom so now we pay TTF spot prices. 

For comparison, in September Gazprom charged the Germans $ 308 and my calculations show that we wanted spot prices so as requested we paid $ 570 in the third quarter. 221 złoty for MWh  is about 570 $ 

I will also explain that Poland imports 50% of its gas directly from Yamal. 25% of imports are "from Germany." It is not Norwegian gas. It is simple Gazprom's gas received in a virtual reverse on the Polish-German border from the same Yamal . Because this article says something enigmatic about gas "bought in the European Union" , and as you know, neither Norway nor the USA, nor Russia nor Qatar are members of the European Union.

Why the hell to buy gas like Ukraine in a virtual reverse, apart from the propaganda agument for goverment that only half of the gas comes from Russia, I do not really understand (the propaganda argument is quite important in this topic in Poland)

Quote

 

We pay the most for gas in six years. A gigantic increase in import costs from Europe

Gas imports from European countries cost Poland the most in six years, reports the Energy Regulatory Office (ERO). We pay an average of PLN 211.54 for MWh of gas in the third quarter of 2021. This is a price six times higher than a year ago.

In the third quarter of 2020, i.e. the year before, we paid an average of PLN 34.88 per MWh for MWh of gas from the European Union and the European Free Trade Association (EFTA). This is six times less than the current price. The price increase has been visible since the beginning of this year. In the second quarter of 2021, MWh of gas from the EU and EFTA countries cost PLN 102.40, and in the first quarter - PLN 85.72 per MWh. The calculations of the Energy Regulatory Office refer to the prices of performed contracts.

The ERO reminds that the prices of foreign contracts affect the prices on the domestic wholesale market, which in turn affect the amount of gas bills paid by end customers in the country. Therefore, Poles feel a direct translation of the increase in prices in their household budgets. An example can be a resident of Słupsk, who showed money.pl her bills. They show that the price of gas increased from PLN 79 to PLN 376 over the year. This is an increase of over 370 percent.

 

https://www.money.pl/gospodarka/za-gaz-placimy-najwiecej-od-szesciu-lat-gigantyczny-wzrost-kosztow-importu-z-europy-6705093686270912a.html

Edited November 21, 2021 by Tomasz

[Tomasz + 1,608]

On 10/27/2021 at 1:11 AM, Starschy said:

Thats just US and not very relevant. They can increase old USBonds. There are at least 200 other Countries for lending Money which is not very necessary as Russia holds 800 Bio US in Reserves. around 620 Intl. Reserves and close 200 Bio. in their National Wealth fund.

Is the Oil and Gasprice for two weeks above 80 USD additional 5 Bio. go into the Reserves.

May I write something about this horrific destructive sanctions against Russia (not the impact of  very low oil and NG prices in last 7 years but exclusively sanctions)

So lets start we this

https://helda.helsinki.fi/bof/bitstream/handle/123456789/16334/bpb0219.pdf?sequence=1

Summary

Quote

Table 1. Summary of recent studies on the impact of sanctions on Russian GDP
IMF (2019) 2014–2018 −0.2 p.p. per annum
Pestova and Mamonov (2019) 2014–2015 −1.2% by the end of 2015
Kholodilin and Netšunajev (2019) 2014–2016 No statistically significant effect
Barsegyan (2019) 2014–2017 Level of per capita GDP on average 1.5% lower

Or newest sanctions because of Navalny  - RBC well-know liberal journalist Ivan Tkachev 

 https://twitter.com/IvanTkachev1/status/1428775076669820936

Quote

Those who hoped U.S. would finally issue strong response over Navalny poisoning will be hugely disappointed: State Department announced virtually non-existent sanctions related to Russia as part of second round of CBW Act sanctions.

 

If you really want to see how real sanctions from investors might look like better example is rather Turkey not Russia or Belarus

Because I read all the time that the West allows his bandit Erdogan from NATO to do more nasty things more than Lukashenka or Putin

So let me introduce now to USDTRY exchage rate in last 10 years (and this is not because oil  has fallen 3 times in 2014-2015)

This is how the West defends Erdogan and attacks Lukashenka that now even in Istanbul, life seems to be worse today than in Minsk, Belarus.

I  immediately prove my thesis because you will say that I am a paid troll of Lukashenka

https://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/compare_cities.jsp?country1=Belarus&country2=Turkey&city1=Minsk&city2=Istanbul&tracking=getDispatchComparison

Despite everything else - today in euros the average salary in Minsk is 1/3 higher than in Istanbul (400 vs 300)

 

 

[Tomasz + 1,608]

On 10/5/2021 at 7:18 AM, dukeNukem said:

True. Compare nominal GDP is like compare apple and orange. 100 bucks in California and 100 bucks in Russia(Germany, China, e.t.c) are different 100 bucks. If you go to dantist in california, let say, and pay 1000$ the same service you will get in Russia for 150-200$.

 

No sorry not even  150-200. I normally pay 150 złotes per visit which is 40-50 $ in Poland. I think in Russia you will pay even less.

Apart from it I agree with you.

So better comparison will be GDP PPP

 

Quote

 

* indicates "GDP of COUNTRY or TERRITORY" or "Economy of COUNTRY or TERRITORY" links.

GDP (PPP, US$ million) by country

Country (or territory)	Subregion	Region	IMF[1]		World Bank[5]		CIA[6]
			Estimate	Year	Estimate	Year	Estimate	Year
China *	Eastern Asia	Asia	26,656,766	2021	24,273,360	2020	23,009,780	2020
United States *	Northern America	Americas	22,675,271	2021	20,936,600	2020	19,846,720	2020
India *	Southern Asia	Asia	10,207,290	2021	9,907,028	2020	8,443,360	2020
Japan *	Eastern Asia	Asia	5,585,786	2021	5,328,033	2019	5,224,850	2019
Germany *	Western Europe	Europe	4,743,673	2021	4,469,546	2020	4,238,800	2020
Russia *	Eastern Europe	Europe	4,328,122	2021	4,133,084	2020	3,875,690	2020
Indonesia *	South-eastern Asia	Asia	3,507,239	2021	3,302,377	2020	3,130,470	2020
Brazil *	South America	Americas	3,328,459	2021	3,153,597	2020	2,989,430	2020
France *	Western Europe	Europe	3,231,927	2021	3,115,307	2020	2,832,170	2020
United Kingdom *	Northern Europe	Europe	3,174,921	2021	3,019,057	2020	2,797,980	2020
Turkey *	Western Asia	Asia	2,749,570	2021	2,371,568	2020	2,393,960	2020
Mexico *	North America	Americas	2,613,797	2021	2,428,201	2020	2,306,320	2020
Italy *	Southern Europe	Europe	2,610,563	2021	2,491,740	2020	2,322,140	2020
South Korea *	Eastern Asia	Asia	2,436,872	2021	2,233,001	2020	2,187,800	2020
Canada *	Northern America	Americas	1,978,816	2021	1,827,010	2020	1,742,790	2020
Spain *	Southern Europe	Europe	1,959,037	2021	1,815,204	2020	1,714,860	2020
Saudi Arabia *	Western Asia	Asia	1,705,519	2021	1,627,982	2020	1,543,240	2020
Australia *	Australia, New Zealand	Oceania	1,415,564	2021	1,349,040	2020	1,250,900	2020
Taiwan *	Eastern Asia	Asia	1,403,663	2021	N/A		1,143,277	2019
Poland *	Eastern Europe	Europe	1,363,766	2021	1,300,375	2020	1,223,460	2020

 

OR

 

Quote

 

Electricity Consumption by Country

• China - 5.934 trillion.
• United States - 3.888 trillion.
• India - 1.176 trillion.
• Japan - 946.16 billion.
• Russia - 918.58 billion.
• Germany - 538.83 billion.
• Brazil - 516.22 billion.
• South Korea.- 511.76 billion.

 

• or Oil Consumption by Country
•  

  Quote

   

  Search:

   

  #	Country	Daily Oil Consumption (barrels)	World Share	Yearly Gallons Per Capita
  1	United States	19,687,287	20.3 %	934.3
  2	China	12,791,553	13.2 %	138.7
  3	India	4,443,000	4.6 %	51.4
  4	Japan	4,012,877	4.1 %	481.5
  5	Russia	3,631,287	3.7 %	383.2
  6	Saudi Arabia	3,302,000	3.4 %	1,560.2
  7	Brazil	2,984,000	3.1 %	221.9
  8	South Korea	2,605,440	2.7 %	783.4
  9	Canada	2,486,301	2.6 %	1,047.6
  10	Germany	2,383,393	2.5 %	444.5
  11	Mexico	2,052,607	2.1 %	255.1
  12	Iran	1,803,999	1.9 %	347.6
  13	France	1,705,568	1.8 %	404.3
  14	Indonesia	1,623,000	1.7 %	95.1
  15	United Kingdom	1,583,896	1.6 %	366.2
  16	Singapore	1,357,000	1.4 %	3,679.5
  17	Thailand	1,302,000	1.3 %	289.4
  18	Spain	1,290,063	1.3 %	424.1
  19	Italy	1,236,628	1.3 %	312.5
  20	Australia	1,114,645	1.1 %	704.3
  21	Taiwan	981,203	1.0 %	636.9

   

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

14 minutes ago, Tomasz said:

May I write something about this horrific destructive sanctions against Russia (not the impact of  very low oil and NG prices in last 7 years but exclusively sanctions)

So lets start we this

https://helda.helsinki.fi/bof/bitstream/handle/123456789/16334/bpb0219.pdf?sequence=1

Summary

Or newest sanctions because of Navalny  - RBC well-know liberal journalist Ivan Tkachev 

 https://twitter.com/IvanTkachev1/status/1428775076669820936

 

If you really want to see how real sanctions from investors might look like better example is rather Turkey not Russia or Belarus

Because I read all the time that the West allows his bandit Erdogan from NATO to do more nasty things more than Lukashenka or Putin

So let me introduce now to USDTRY exchage rate in last 10 years (and this is not because oil  has fallen 3 times in 2014-2015)

This is how the West defends Erdogan and attacks Lukashenka that now even in Istanbul, life seems to be worse today than in Minsk, Belarus.

I  immediately prove my thesis because you will say that I am a paid troll of Lukashenka

https://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/compare_cities.jsp?country1=Belarus&country2=Turkey&city1=Minsk&city2=Istanbul&tracking=getDispatchComparison

Despite everything else - today in euros the average salary in Minsk is 1/3 higher than in Istanbul (400 vs 300)

 

 

Actually, there is a way for Russians and Turks to make free money off the EU using an observation that no matter what you do, the ruble sucks compared to EUR and the Turkish lira sucks even more. For which purposes, Sber has bought themselves this Turkish bank

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DenizBank

which set up shop in Austria next to Sber. In 2019, somebody important wanted their knee caps broken and Deniz was sold at par value to the cronies of Emirati Central Bank. Looks like the scheme continues as entirely halal interest-free Islamic finance now

[Tomasz + 1,608]

On 10/21/2021 at 6:50 PM, Boat said:

Your just lucky the Allied troops saved Russia from Hitler or Putin wouldn’t have been around to screw over Europe. Canada has a bigger economy than Russia with about 1/5 the population. Seems like a better destination. Seems Putin struggles helping his people. You might try freedom, it pays better.

You give as example how Western Allies saved USSR by D-DAY.

So let me advise you to read about

1) Battle for Moscow

2) Siege of Leningrad

3) Battle of Stalingrad

4) Battle of Kursk

By the way during D-DAY took place also Operation Bagration also known as Destruction of Army Group Centre  Not  single one Werhmacht Army but group of several armies. To this day even in western military press this operations is also known as biggest german military defeat in history

But I suppose you have never heard abot Operation Bagration 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Bagration

Quote

 

Operation Bagration (/bʌɡrʌtiˈɒn/; Russian: Операция Багратио́н, Operatsiya Bagration) was the codename for the 1944 Soviet Byelorussian Strategic Offensive Operation^[15] (Russian: Белорусская наступательная операция «Багратион», Belorusskaya nastupatelnaya Operatsiya Bagration), a military campaign fought between 22 June and 19 August 1944 in Soviet Byelorussia in the Eastern Front of World War II,^[16] just over 2 weeks after the start of Operation Overlord in the west, causing the Germans to have to fight on two major fronts at the same time. The Soviet Union destroyed 28 of 34 divisions of Army Group Centre and completely shattered the German front line.^[17] It was the biggest defeat in German military history, with around 450,000 German casualties,^[18] while 300,000 other German soldiers were cut off in the Courland Pocket.

On 22 June 1944,^[19] the Red Army attacked Army Group Centre in Byelorussia, with the objective of encircling and destroying its main component armies. By 28 June, the German 4th Army had been destroyed, along with most of the Third Panzer and Ninth Armies.^[20][21] The Red Army exploited the collapse of the German front line to encircle German formations in the vicinity of Minsk in the Minsk Offensive and destroy them, with Minsk liberated on 4 July. With the end of effective German resistance in Byelorussia, the Soviet offensive continued on to Lithuania, Poland and Romania over the course of July and August.

The Red Army successfully used the Soviet deep battle and maskirovka (deception) strategies for the first time to a full extent, albeit with continuing heavy losses. Operation Bagration diverted German mobile reserves to the central sectors, removing them from the Lublin–Brest and Lvov–Sandomierz areas, enabling the Soviets to undertake the Lvov–Sandomierz Offensive^[22] and Lublin–Brest Offensive.^[23] This allowed the Red Army to reach the Vistula river and Warsaw, which in turn put Soviet forces within striking distance of Berlin, conforming to the concept of Soviet deep operations—striking into the enemy's strategic depths.^[24]

 

 

Edited November 21, 2021 by Tomasz

[Rasmus Jorgensen + 1,169]

15 hours ago, Tomasz said:

But I suppose you have never heard abot Operation Bagration 

I have. 

I also know that the West supplied and mechanized the Russian Army, without which it would have never been able to beat the Wehrmacht. Admittedly, the West needed an ally, but still. 

[dukeNukem + 80]

On 11/20/2021 at 11:34 AM, Starschy said:

The 38 bcm becomes active in 2025 its all long documented by Gazprom.

Poland is in great trouble because they dont get the LNG Volume. Annually the get 4 bcm a year instead of 10 bcm meaning about one third and the rest is by Gazprom. Poland anounced closing of the Gazprom contract end of 2022. As example between June - sept 2021 they imported only below 1 bcm probably fear the relative high price then.

The LNG way is not for big volume contracts.

If everything goes well, Poland get gas from Norway.  https://www.emerging-europe.com/news/as-baltic-pipe-nears-completion-poland-takes-huge-step-towards-energy-diversification/.  

Ths problem here is Norway gas production stagnating, therefore these gas volumes will be substracted from other gas importing countries ( Germany for example). Quite likely Gazprom needs to pump more gas, to compensate Baltic Pipe volumes

 

 

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

27 minutes ago, dukeNukem said:

If everything goes well, Poland get gas from Norway.  https://www.emerging-europe.com/news/as-baltic-pipe-nears-completion-poland-takes-huge-step-towards-energy-diversification/.  

Ths problem here is Norway gas production stagnating, therefore these gas volumes will be substracted from other gas importing countries ( Germany for example). Quite likely Gazprom needs to pump more gas, to compensate Baltic Pipe volumes

 

 

Actually, the Norwegians are not above reselling Russian gas themselves

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

On 11/21/2021 at 10:48 PM, Rasmus Jorgensen said:

I have. 

I also know that the West supplied and mechanized the Russian Army, without which it would have never been able to beat the Wehrmacht. Admittedly, the West needed an ally, but still. 

It did, but you are overstating the significance of it. Just 11% of all materiel was supplied through lend lease, with most of mechanization being Studebaker 1.5t trucks. All the foods supplied were animal products from 1942 on. USSR never stopped being self-sufficient in grain throughout the war. And it is Soviet army,

Edited November 23, 2021 by Andrei Moutchkine

[Starschy + 211]

On 11/22/2021 at 4:29 AM, Andrei Moutchkine said:

Actually, the Norwegians are not above reselling Russian gas themselves

When Germany, Netherland, England, France asked Norway for Gas do you think Poland is in the Start row? Of course not the other buy much larger Volumes.

Edited November 24, 2021 by Starschy

[Starschy + 211]

Gazproms record high net profit after 9 Months =21 Billion USD meaning they come close to 30 Billion after 4 Quarters. The Average Gas Price increased from 117 USD to 310 USD.

They made a brilliant Job and they dońt care if Nordstream 2 is a few months later.

I would assume that the Dividend could increase over 20 Rbl 2018 was the highest with 16.61

Edited November 30, 2021 by Starschy
Rbl instead of Cents

[dukeNukem + 80]

11 hours ago, Starschy said:

Gazproms record high net profit after 9 Months =21 Billion USD meaning they come close to 30 Billion after 4 Quarters. The Average Gas Price increased from 117 USD to 310 USD.

They made a brilliant Job and they dońt care if Nordstream 2 is a few months later.

I would assume that the Dividend could increase over 20 Cents. 2018 was the highest with 16.61

16.61 is in RUB, not cents...and yes, dividend for 2021 will be more than 40 RUB ( more than 50 cents). In recent presentation Gazprom mentioned that due to high gas prices, gas consumption in EU went down. However, coal and heating oil consumption up. 

So we can say that Germans Greens are againsts NS2, pushing for higher CO2 emissions

[Boat + 1,323]

On 10/1/2021 at 9:16 PM, ronwagn said:

It looks like a game of chicken. Who gives in first between Deutschland and the Bear. Russia is very good at holding out because their people are tough and used to being poor and cold. The West is getting softer every year. They don't want to work hard and want high pay (I am speaking of many in the young generations). Even many in China want shorter work hours and easier work. Right now they work six days a work 12 hour days, that is my understanding anyway. How about Russia?

In theory working less and having a better life style is not weak or soft. It’s called being smarter. You can celebrate tough all you want but in many cases tough is the result of not being smart enough to take care of yourself and your family. Working 12 hrs a day your working brain dead. Walking through life in a tired daze is just shortening ones life. I give the example of 60 workers building a multistory building with 5 gal buckets using ropes and ladders. Manually mixing the concrete. In the US you will see a pump truck with a dozen concrete trucks lined up. You wanna be tough? Lol our women can drive the trucks and outperform those men with buckets. Don’t believe drivel.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

6 minutes ago, Boat said:

In theory working less and having a better life style is not weak or soft. It’s called being smarter. You can celebrate tough all you want but in many cases tough is the result of not being smart enough to take care of yourself and your family. Working 12 hrs a day your working brain dead. Walking through life in a tired daze is just shortening ones life. I give the example of 60 workers building a multistory building with 5 gal buckets using ropes and ladders. Manually mixing the concrete. In the US you will see a pump truck with a dozen concrete trucks lined up. You wanna be tough? Lol our women can drive the trucks and outperform those men with buckets. Don’t believe drivel.

Very good points admittedly, but I also see many people in our society who do not want to work any more than absolutely necessary. The younger generation in China and elsewhere also see your points. They have a saying: "Lay down and don't move" or something similar. That is the extreme opposite of working 6/12 meaning six days a week 12 hours or 72 hours a week. 

I definitely support approximately 40 hours in a workweek but realize that the ambition and financial needs or goals of many will require far more hours than that. 

[Boat + 1,323]

Y’all get so excited like every story is so final. My god the fear of running out of anything. This energy transition will take decades. 
My long standing prediction for peak oil started at 2030. Then I bumped up the timeline to 2027. Tonight marks the change to 2025. That means my guess says world oil consumption has not reached its peak but will by 2026. Since 1950 consumption has averaged roughly 1.5 mbpd growth. COVID amount other factors have slowed recent growth but I think some growth in consumption is left for at least 2-3 years. 

Back in the Oil Drum days it was all about fracking collapse, Saudi and Russia running out. Those posters couldn’t have been more wrong. My prediction of peak oil in 2030 was after years of reading about the oil business and global potential. It’s Elon Musk that caused my timeline to move up to 2026. Peak oil is more of an emotion rather than anything else. We’ll see if the world can slow Elon down. The days of endless oil consumption for vehicular is drawing to a close. I no longer have my Nissan 300 ZX. No more 130 mph with the top off. I read electric cars leave my ol ice hot rod in the dust. 

[Boat + 1,323]

23 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

Very good points admittedly, but I also see many people in our society who do not want to work any more than absolutely necessary. The younger generation in China and elsewhere also see your points. They have a saying: "Lay down and don't move" or something similar. That is the extreme opposite of working 6/12 meaning six days a week 12 hours or 72 hours a week. 

I definitely support approximately 40 hours in a workweek but realize that the ambition and financial needs or goals of many will require far more hours than that. 

To much worry about what others do. My day threw hay from the field on a wagon pulled by horses. Took 5 guys. I bailed hay with a buddy and a farmer. Took 3 people and we could do 4x the acres. Today they use the big round bailers. Ran by 1 guy. Then later he uses a tractor with a fork. One guy. So being modern and smart requires less labor. If you praise labor you aren’t smart enough to run equipment. 
 

One Musk can compensate in labor for a generation of slackers. Lol

Edited November 30, 2021 by Boat

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

4 hours ago, dukeNukem said:

16.61 is in RUB, not cents...and yes, dividend for 2021 will be more than 40 RUB ( more than 50 cents). In recent presentation Gazprom mentioned that due to high gas prices, gas consumption in EU went down. However, coal and heating oil consumption up. 

So we can say that Germans Greens are againsts NS2, pushing for higher CO2 emissions

Secret hint - Russian ruble is almost exactly the same as British pence. So, 16 RUB is 0,16 GBP

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

3 hours ago, Boat said:

In theory working less and having a better life style is not weak or soft. It’s called being smarter. You can celebrate tough all you want but in many cases tough is the result of not being smart enough to take care of yourself and your family. Working 12 hrs a day your working brain dead. Walking through life in a tired daze is just shortening ones life. I give the example of 60 workers building a multistory building with 5 gal buckets using ropes and ladders. Manually mixing the concrete. In the US you will see a pump truck with a dozen concrete trucks lined up. You wanna be tough? Lol our women can drive the trucks and outperform those men with buckets. Don’t believe drivel.

Anywhere there are multistory buildings, there are also concrete mixing trucks.

Ditto for the apparatus making bales out of hay. It is everywhere. No advantage for USA whatsoever in that.

The future of automotive industry being electrical was sealed by the lowly Toyota Prius. There is nothing unusually innovative about Tesla. Anybody can build a Porsche-fast electrical car with Porsche-sized budget by using laptop parts. The main trick was getting venture funds for it. The outfit wouldn't be profitable today, if it weren't receiving carbon credit payments from other, not 100% electric, car manufacturers.

Edited November 30, 2021 by Andrei Moutchkine

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

On 8/20/2021 at 10:08 AM, ronwagn said:

So, we must demand somewhat close parity on imports and exports. Most Americans want a fair deal. Only the WOKE Corporations want to deal with China. Unfortunately the average American has little choice because the fascist corporations want to keep dealing with China despite it being against America's best interests. We must support India and other Asian countries as well as Mexico and Canada, South America, and Eastern European nations whenever possible. Not finacially but with trade taken from China who is our foe.

Thought to be not really possible, for as long as world trade remains in USD. See

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triffin_dilemma

[Tomasz + 1,608]

Novatek Arctic LNG

Quote

Arctic LNG-2 ”was covered by loans
The project obtained external financing of EUR 9.5 billion
NOVATEK has completed procurement of project financing for Arctic LNG-2 in the amount of 9.5 billion euros. Although the contracts were generally reached six months ago, the process was hampered by the position of credit agencies in France and Germany. The head of the company, Leonid Mikhelson, even threatened to provide financing to Russian banks, but in the end it was not required.
Arctic LNG-2, the operator of the construction of the gas liquefaction plant in Gydan, announced on November 30 that it has signed contracts with international financial and credit organizations to finance the project. The total amount of funds raised for the period up to 15 years will amount to EUR 9.5 billion (USD 10.65 billion according to the current exchange rate). Loans are attracted in euro because due to US sanctions against NOVATEK, Arctic LNG-2 cannot obtain long-term dollar loans.
The total cost of the project in Gydan, 60% of which is owned by NOVATEK, is estimated at $ 21.3 billion, making external financing for exactly half of the project costs, the rest being provided by shareholders - in addition to NOVATEK, 10% each from Total, China's CNPC and CNOOC, as well as the Japanese Mitsui and JOGMEC consortium.
The external financing scheme will look like this:
Arctic LNG-2 will receive 4.5 billion euros from a consortium of Russian banks - Sberbank, Gazprombank and its structure - Bank GPB International SA, VEB.RF and Otkritie Bank.
Another EUR 2.5 billion will be provided by Chinese financial institutions, including the Chinese Development Bank (CDB) and the Export-Import Bank of China (CEXIM, The Export and Import Bank of China).
In addition, 2.5 billion euros will be provided by "banks from the countries of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development", according to the "Arctic LNG-2" announcement.
These banks include in particular the Japanese Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC), the disclosure of which was refused by the other NOVATEK participants. The company only noted that we are talking about a few banks for which loans are also guaranteed by export credit agencies.
According to Kommersant's interlocutors, it was widely understood that European banks, including Intesa Sanpaolo and Raiffeisen Bank International AG, could provide 1.2 billion euros under the guarantee of the Italian export agency SACE, the French Bpifrance and the German Hermes. About the same pool of European banks contributed to the financing of the $ 19 billion Yamal LNG project out of a total project cost of $ 27 billion.
However, in September, Novatek boss Leonid Mikhelson said that for political reasons the governments of Germany and France did not support the participation of national credit organizations. He also explained that Russian banks are ready to provide the missing financing. In addition, on October 25, Arctic LNG-2 announced the signing of annexes to loan agreements with Russian banks, according to which the maximum amount of the credit line increased to EUR 5.7 billion, however, judging by the final financing structure of the projects, additional participation by Russian banks was not taken away.
Generally, in the case of Arctic LNG-2, NOVATEK had no major difficulties in obtaining funds, unlike Yamal LNG, when the sudden imposition of sanctions forced a change in the entire financing structure of the projects.
During this time, the company had to obtain more than half of its total external financing volume from Chinese banks, and also ask the Russian government to provide Yamal LNG with funds from the National Property Fund in the form of a loan. In addition, NOVATEK had to sell a 10% stake in Yamal LNG to the Chinese SRF fund, which the company initially did not intend to do.
Andrey Polishchuk from Raiffeisenbank notes that the above-mentioned project financing scheme looks optimal and that the Arctic LNG-2 project currently carries only operational risk. Moreover, considering that the company has experience in launching Yamal LNG, they look low, according to the expert

 

[Tomasz + 1,608]

Gazprom financial statement after 9 months 2021 https://www.gazprom.com/press/news/2021/november/article543813/

1 $ is about 70-75 roubles for the time being

Quote

 

Today PJSC Gazprom issued its unaudited consolidated interim condensed financial information prepared in accordance with International Accounting Standard 34 Interim Financial Reporting (IAS 34) for the nine months ended September 30, 2021.

The table below presents the unaudited consolidated interim condensed statement of comprehensive income for the nine months ended September 30, 2021 and for the nine months ended September 30, 2020. All amounts in the table are presented in millions of Russian Rubles.

	Nine months ended September 30,
	2021	2020
Sales	6,725,132	4,301,218
Net gain from trading activity	130,491	11,911
Operating expenses	(5,202,452)	(3,944,332)
Impairment loss on financial assets	(63,954)	(43,645)
Operating profit	1,589,217	325,152
Finance income	421,457	527,050
Finance expenses	(289,834)	(1,277,952)
Share of profit of associates and joint ventures	225,640	98,727
Profit (loss) before profit tax	1,946,480	(327,023)
Current profit tax expense	(245,891)	(57,376)
Deferred profit tax (expenses) income	(120,651)	182,192
Profit tax	(366,542)	124,816
Profit (loss) for the period	1,579,938	(202,207)
Profit (loss) for the period attributable to:
Owners of PJSC Gazprom	1,550,299	(218,378)
Non-controlling interest	29,639	16,171
	1,579,938	(202,207)

More detailed information concerning the main items of the sales structure is presented in the table below.

in RUB million (unless indicated otherwise)	Nine months ended September 30,
	2021	2020
Sales of gas
Europe and other countries
Net sales (net of excise tax and customs duties)	2,460,824	1,135,130
Volumes in bcm	175.7	154.4
Average price, RUB per mcm (including excise tax and customs duties)	17,838.9	9,165.0
Former Soviet Union countries
Net sales (net of customs duties)	267,303	199,546
Volumes in bcm	24.1	21.3
Average price, RUB per mcm (including customs duties)	12,248.4	9,829.0
Russian Federation
Net sales (net of VAT)	732,584	622,882
Volumes in bcm	170.0	151.1
Average price, RUB per mcm (net of VAT)	4,308.4	4,122.9
Total gas sales
Retroactive gas price adjustments	5	2,324
Net sales (net of excise tax, VAT and customs duties)	3,460,716	1,959,882
Volumes in bcm	369.8	326.8
Net sales of refined products (net of excise tax, VAT and customs duties)	1,858,231	1,301,542
Net sales of crude oil and gas condensate (net of VAT and customs duties)	622,682	343,161
Electric and heat energy net sales (net of VAT)	415,744	348,467
Gas transportation net sales (net of VAT)	166,737	163,838
Other sales (net of VAT)	201,022	184,328
Total sales (net of excise tax, VAT and customs duties)	6,725,132	4,301,218

Net sales of gas increased by RUB 1,500,834 million, or 77 %, compared to the same period of the prior year to RUB 3,460,716 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2021. The increase of sales was mainly to an increase of sales of gas to Europe and other countries.

Net sales of gas to Europe and other countries increased by RUB 1,325,694 million, or 117 %, to RUB 2,460,824 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2021 compared to the same period of the prior year. The change was mainly due to an increase in average prices (including excise tax and customs duties) denominated in the Russian Ruble by 95 % and an increase in volumes of gas sold by 14 %, or 21.3 bcm. At the same time average prices denominated in US Dollar increased by 87 %.

Net sales of gas to Former Soviet Union countries increased by RUB 67,757 million or 34 %, to RUB 267,303 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2021 compared to the same period of the prior year. The change was due to an increase in average prices (including customs duties) denominated in the Russian Ruble by 25 % and an increase in volumes of gas sold by 13 %, or 2.8 bcm. At the same time average prices denominated in US Dollar increased by 20 %.

Net sales of gas in the Russian Federation increased by RUB 109,702 million, or 18 %, to RUB 732,584 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2021 compared to the same period of the prior year. This change was mainly explained by an increase in volumes of gas sold by 13 %, or 18.9 bcm, and an increase in average prices (net of VAT) by 4 %.

Net sales of refined products (net of excise tax, VAT and customs duties) increased by RUB 556,689 million, or 43 %, to RUB 1,858,231 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2021 compared to the same period of the prior year. The increase in net sales of refined products was mainly due to an increase in average prices in all geographic segments.

Net sales of crude oil and gas condensate (net of VAT and customs duties) increased by RUB 279,521 million, or 81 %, to RUB 622,682 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2021 compared to the same period of the prior year. The change was mainly due to an increase in net sales of crude oil primarily caused by an increase in average prices of crude oil.

Operating expenses increased by RUB 1,258,120 million, or 32 %, to RUB 5,202,452 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2021 compared to the same period of the prior year.

The increase in operating expenses was mainly caused by the increase of expenses in the item “Purchased gas and oil” by RUB 534,972 million, or 85 %, for the nine months ended September 30, 2021 compared to the same period of the prior year was caused by an increase in average prices of oil and gas and volumes of the oil purchase.

The increase in the item “Taxes other than on profit” by RUB 204,586 million, or 22 %, for the nine months ended September 30, 2021 compared to the same period of the prior year, was mainly due to an increase in mineral extraction tax expenses, which was partially compensated by a decrease in excise tax expenses. The increase in mineral extraction tax expenses mainly caused by an increase in crude oil prices, tax rate as a result of the tax maneuver and an increase in volumes of gas production.

The balance of foreign exchange differences reflected within the item “Net finance income (expense)” produced the gain in the amount of RUB 135,636 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2021 compared to the loss in the amount of RUB 749,452 million for the same period of the prior year.

Gain attributable to the owners of PJSC Gazprom amounted to RUB 1,550,299 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2021.

Adjusted EBITDA (calculated as the sum of operating profit, depreciation, impairment loss or reversal of impairment loss on financial assets and non-financial assets, less changes of allowance for expected credit losses on accounts receivable and impairment allowance on advances paid and prepayments) increased by RUB 1,278,451 million, or 137 %, for the nine months ended September 30, 2021 compared to the same period of the prior year and amounted to RUB 2,213,614 million. This change was mainly due to an increase in sales.

Net debt balance (defined as the sum of short-term borrowings and the current portion of long-term borrowings, short-term promissory notes payable, long-term borrowings, long-term promissory notes payable, less cash and cash equivalents) decreased by RUB 388,124 million, or 10 %, from RUB 3,872,695 million as of December 31, 2020 to RUB 3,484,571 million as of September 30, 2021. This change was mainly due to an increase in cash and cash equivalents.

 

 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

15 hours ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

Thought to be not really possible, for as long as world trade remains in USD. See

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triffin_dilemma

We have just added two or three trillion dollars to the world supply!