NordStream2

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

6 minutes ago, Starschy said:

Thats no discount, because calculation for a 5 year contract work very different.

By the way Moldovagaz belongs partially to Gazprom which is a joint Company with the Moldova Government. They know exactly how much money is outstanding.

So, what is the deal with this audit, than?

[Starschy + 211]

1 hour ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

So, what is the deal with this audit, than?

There is nothing to audit. Usually Saldo confirmation are done annually at least.

Only People which made troubles come up with such ideas. And that Moldova and Gazprom reached a deal before 1st November confirmed this opinion. 

[Tomasz + 1,608]

Quote

 

In the period January-October 2021, Gazprom, according to preliminary data, produced 422.6 billion cubic meters. m of gas. This is 15.8% (57.7 billion cubic meters) more than in the previous year. 

The company increased supplies from the gas transmission system to the domestic market by 17.2% (by 28.8 bcm).

Gazprom's exports to countries outside the CIS increased to 158.8 billion m3. m, i.e. by 10.4% (14.9 billion cubic meters) more than in the same period in 2020. Gazprom continues to supply gas at levels close to the historical record.

In particular, the company increased gas supplies to Turkey (by 110.4%), Germany (by 23.4%), Italy (by 15.4%), Romania (by 272.2%), Serbia (by 101.7%). ),%), Bulgaria (by 15.4%). 51.9%, Poland (by 9.5%), Greece (by 16.3%), Finland (by 13.6%).

To date, Gazprom's exports to many countries have already exceeded 2020 volumes, in particular to Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania and Serbia.

Gas supplies to China via the Power of Siberia gas pipeline are on the rise. Thus, on October 31, deliveries commissioned by the Chinese party reached a new record level and exceeded Gazprom's daily contractual obligations by over 19%.

According to Gas Infrastructure Europe, as of October 30, the occupancy difference in European gas storage compared to the previous year is minus 18.2 billion cubic meters. m. Gas reserves at UGS in Ukraine for 10.1 billion cubic meters. m less than the 2020 level.

 

 

[dukeNukem + 80]

On 10/29/2021 at 1:00 AM, notsonice said:

The Med is really deep, up to 5km. This is why there is still no pipeline from Qatar or Israel????  So your point that the Med is really deep is a meaningless argument. Please do not be so condescending in your arguments. Your arrogance is shining through with your thinking you are schooling people here. ..... I just gave you a more complete one..... good grief

Try to look at the Globe and find where Israel and Qatar is...And possible routes to run undersea pipeline.

P.S. there is another obstacle to run pipeline from Israel to Europe -Turkey dont really like it. They can put enough political/military pressure to stop. 

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

2 hours ago, dukeNukem said:

Try to look at the Globe and find where Israel and Qatar is...And possible routes to run undersea pipeline.

P.S. there is another obstacle to run pipeline from Israel to Europe -Turkey dont really like it. They can put enough political/military pressure to stop. 

The idea was supposedly to run it up to Turkey, nonetheless. It is a fairly weak hypothesis, because it would then have to pass through mountainous regions and regions of significant Kurdish separatist activities. But, in lieu of any other meaningful theory as to why US/West invested so heavily into overthrowing Assad, the "Qatari pipeline" theory will have to do. Israelis are none too friendly to Turks, either, but Qatar is Turkey's closest ally (and sponsor)

Edited November 1, 2021 by Andrei Moutchkine

[Boat + 1,324]

You can read about it here at Oilprice. Qatar the US and others are ramping up to snatch market share. Things just take awhile in the nat gas world. Same with the undeniable creep of renewables. Here’s the question. If you had to bet, which assets will be less used or become stranded in 20 years. I’m betting the cheapest and cleanest survive. I’m betting you’ll be crying about renewables the rest of your life in your electric car. 

[dukeNukem + 80]

10 hours ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

The idea was supposedly to run it up to Turkey, nonetheless. It is a fairly weak hypothesis, because it would then have to pass through mountainous regions and regions of significant Kurdish separatist activities. But, in lieu of any other meaningful theory as to why US/West invested so heavily into overthrowing Assad, the "Qatari pipeline" theory will have to do. Israelis are none too friendly to Turks, either, but Qatar is Turkey's closest ally (and sponsor)

This is correct, but I was talking mostly about EastMed Israel pipeline via Cyprus to Europe (Greece). Turkey and Greece have special relationship....

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-cyprus-natgas-turkey-eni/turkish-blockade-of-ship-off-cyprus-is-out-of-enis-control-ceo-idUSKCN1G01K0 

Edited November 2, 2021 by dukeNukem

[dukeNukem + 80]

2 hours ago, Boat said:

You can read about it here at Oilprice. Qatar the US and others are ramping up to snatch market share. Things just take awhile in the nat gas world. Same with the undeniable creep of renewables. Here’s the question. If you had to bet, which assets will be less used or become stranded in 20 years. I’m betting the cheapest and cleanest survive. I’m betting you’ll be crying about renewables the rest of your life in your electric car. 

IMO nat gas is the best bet for upcoming years....Green agenda will continue, coal and oil could get a hit. But you could not use renewables without proper fossil fuel backup (or nuclear). Gas is the cleanest fossil fuel, therefore not much choice left.

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

25 minutes ago, dukeNukem said:

IMO nat gas is the best bet for upcoming years....Green agenda will continue, coal and oil could get a hit. But you could not use renewables without proper fossil fuel backup (or nuclear). Gas is the cleanest fossil fuel, therefore not much choice left.

Why is it a fossil fuel, when there is oceans of it elsewhere in the Solar system? I reckon, only coal is really fossil.

[dukeNukem + 80]

4 hours ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

Why is it a fossil fuel, when there is oceans of it elsewhere in the Solar system? I reckon, only coal is really fossil.

Gas ( as well as oil) is fossil product. According to organic theory.

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

On 8/20/2021 at 11:17 AM, ronwagn said:

Anyone who thinks Russia should read about the Holodomor slaughter of Ukrainians.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomor 

The Belarus Revolt is currently being enforced with the threat of Russian troups coming in. 

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/belarus-alexander-lukashenko-how-music-became-a-weapon-in-a-revolution/

Putin is a ruthless despot for life. Lukashenko is also ruthless.

The correct link is

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_famine_of_1932–1933

A famine is a natural disaster. The story about ethnic Ukrainians being specifically targeted is actual Goebbels propaganda, perpetuated by Ukronazies who (unfortunately) came out of Gulag alive when Stalin died and emigrated to Canada, largely. Still at it to this day

https://www.counterpunch.org/2017/03/03/the-holodomor-and-the-film-bitter-harvest-are-fascist-lies/

Whether Lukashenko or Putin is a despot is none of your business. Every violent "revolt" (riot, to some) needs to be put down by force, or it will get worse. Ukraine was enough.

Edited November 6, 2021 by Andrei Moutchkine

[Starschy + 211]

The German judges are asking for a Germany registered Company. (for the german section of the pipeline. Its easier in law cases)

That is only a matter of time 15 to 60 days. Nordstream 2 itself is registered in Switzerland. That was expected and will not make a big delay.

[Tomasz + 1,608]

3 hours ago, Starschy said:

The German judges are asking for a Germany registered Company. (for the german section of the pipeline. Its easier in law cases)

That is only a matter of time 15 to 60 days. Nordstream 2 itself is registered in Switzerland. That was expected and will not make a big delay.

Russian press like for example Kommersant show this german move is similar way so you are probably right.

[Starschy + 211]

https://www.gazprom.com/press/news/2021/november/article542729/

You should read that Gazprom News.

China gets 30% additional volume meaning a lot of Cash

And Gazprom is producing record high Figures.

[Tomasz + 1,608]

Usually, Gazprom's gas pipelines have around 10% of overproduction capacity.

And so NS I usually sends around 60 billion instead of 55 billion.

The Power of Siberia I has a nominal capacity of 38 billion 3 and the contract is going to be renegotiated up to 44 billion m3 annually.

If you  add standard 10% overcapacity it comes out almost about 50 billion.

However, the capacity of 15 billion m3 was probably achieved earlier than 2020. 

According to hard data, 12 bcm have been transferred since December 2019. 300 million in 2019.4.1 billion in 2020. 7.1 billion from January to the end of September this year.

This year it will be 10 billion m3, next 15 billion or more.

Russia sends also additional coal to China and export electricity from Far East

Quote

 

First of all, Gazprom is meeting its contractual obligations. This is the basis - contracts must be completed, gas supplied in the quantities ordered. But at the same time, the matter was made clear: Russian needs come first. Consumption in Russia is growing rapidly after the collapse (by 9%), so the priority is to secure gas for the winter, and then you can think about Europe.

Russia has also indicated the culprit who does not ensure Europe's security of gas supplies. And President Putin did it himself, informing that it was America that reduced LNG supplies, shifting them to Asia, where there are much more profits. Indeed, during the summer and fall, supplies of LNG from the US to Europe fell sharply. And Gazprom had nothing to complain about in supplying foreign goods, this year it increased both production (by 17%) and exports (by 13%).

And this is how Gazprom again proved to be the guarantor of the increase in supplies, just like during the crazy frost attack in February 2018. Other suppliers simply do not have such reserves. But this time, Gazprom was reluctant to respond to calls to flood Europe with gas and thus lower prices. Quite the opposite - in the summer and autumn, Russia played to its advantage with gas prices raging at never before seen heights. Nord Stream 2, which had been in full readiness for deliveries since October, was expected to be put into operation, and President Putin guaranteed: the gas could flow the day after the authority's approval. But the EU was still fighting to eliminate the main gas supplier to Europe, and the approval of Nord Stream 2 was postponed until next year.

In addition to the volume of exports, Gazprom also operated transmission routes. Nord Stream 1 was working intensively all the time, even above its rated capacity. But the media was silent about it, and Gazprom and the Swiss company were also silent. They did not want to spoil the effects of the media game that would boost the mood on the stock exchanges. Exactly the opposite was done with the transit through Poland and Ukraine. Although the transfers are already small, the refusal to increase them was publicized in the media. The Ukrainian route is paid until the end of 2024, but here too, Gazprom reduced the transmission even below half (to 50 million m3 / day, although 109 million is paid). The Polish section of the Yamal, very poorly used, even had days when, instead of exporting to Germany, gas was imported not virtually, but physically ... gas from the Nord Stream. All this fueled another wave of price increases on the stock exchanges.

As a result of this game, Gazprom earns huge amounts of money, in the first half of the year it made record profits - USD 10 billion. This is huge money, especially compared to the $ 3 billion loss the year before. In the fall, revenues grew along with export prices, but the best times were still ahead of Gazprom. While in September it exported USD 308 for gas, in October the market price of exports on the basis of the previous month increased to USD 790. So export earnings, which tripled from last year, will be even greater. It can be said that any penalties imposed on Russia, even the blocking of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline (limiting OPAL transmission to half capacity), and the suspension of its other line - all this returned to the Russians at the horrendously high gas prices. So they can now sigh, "hold on a second, how beautiful you are!"

Russia has also managed to play this crisis to its own advantage politically. By flirting with the financial markets - the authors and manipulators of this crisis - incredibly high prices were sustained. At the same time, the image of a reliable partner for Europe that fulfills its obligations was built. And if he does not harm his own interests, he is also ready to help partners. On October 27, when it was already clear that the upward trend in gas prices had run out, President Putin ordered Gazprom to fill its warehouses in Europe. Of course, after filling the Russian ones, and after a few more days of waiting for your turn ...

Big art. And to earn a ruble and to keep virtue.

Andrzej Szczęśniak

Myśl Polska, nr 47-48 (November 21-28, 2021)

 

 

Edited November 20, 2021 by Tomasz

[Tomasz + 1,608]

But if we read MSM

EU mustn't buy gas from Russia- that would make EU "hostage" to Russia

Russia mustn't sell gas to China- that would make Russia "hostage" to China

However there seems to be no problem in both EU and China buying gas from the good old yanks

– It follows per Aristotle's logic that Russia keeps its gas underground until nobody needs it.

To my mind it is the "West's" MSM that has a serious problem, not Russia

 

Quote

 

Gazprom raised its daily #gas output to the highest level for this time of the year in a decade: 1.493bcm Nov. 1-15, +4% m/m, as #Russia's heating season is in full swing. Yet, daily flows to Europe fell to 0.4bcm

 

Gazprom again fixes Europe energy crisis but EU  would rather freeze their citizens and close their businesses.

Edited November 20, 2021 by Tomasz

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

3 hours ago, Starschy said:

https://www.gazprom.com/press/news/2021/november/article542729/

You should read that Gazprom News.

China gets 30% additional volume meaning a lot of Cash

And Gazprom is producing record high Figures.

It is 30% plus to a very low base though. Only one out of intended 3+ source fields are connected yet.

[Tomasz + 1,608]

Just now, Andrei Moutchkine said:

It is 30% plus to a very low base though. Only one out of intended 3+ source fields are connected yet.

7.1 bcm in January-September 2021

From 3 December 2019 untill today 12 bcm

If we add this facts it may be 40 milion cubic meters per day as of today

But if we get all pieces together it looks like this

Quote

Gazprom raised its daily #gas output to the highest level for this time of the year in a decade: 1.493bcm Nov. 1-15, +4% m/m, as #Russia's heating season is in full swing. Yet, daily flows to Europe fell to 0.4bcm

But Gazprom does not limit production in any way and produces record amounts of gas in last 10 years. There is lack of gas all over the world.

And if someone decided to be clever and cunning in arbitration case last year and thought as Euopean Union that according to this saying "its lower for longer" (BP CEO 2014), this is as the Saudi Aramco CEO said at the OPEC meeting to the USA recently - we had a problem and now you have a problem but it is not OUR problem now.

 

After all, the Russian government cares first of all for Russian citizens and that they should have warmth in winter, which is a going to a harsh one.

So many years of calling in the Polish mass media that Putin does not care about them and that Russian gas in Europe is not needed.

Then why  now such resent?

Edited November 20, 2021 by Tomasz

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

33 minutes ago, Tomasz said:

Usually, Gazprom's gas pipelines have around 10% of overproduction capacity.

And so NS I usually sends around 60 billion instead of 55 billion.

The Power of Siberia I has a nominal capacity of 38 billion 3 and the contract is going to be renegotiated up to 44 billion m3 annually.

If you  add standard 10% overcapacity it comes out almost about 50 billion.

However, the capacity of 15 billion m3 was probably achieved earlier than 2020. 

According to hard data, 12 bcm have been transferred since December 2019. 300 million in 2019.4.1 billion in 2020. 7.1 billion from January to the end of September this year.

This year it will be 10 billion m3, next 15 billion or more.

Russia sends also additional coal to China and export electricity from Far East

 

Electricity is limited to whatever the

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bureya_Dam

gives. However, if there is enduring need, they'll build more. Apparently, they not as much need the dams in the region for electricity, but need to remove some 30km^3 of annual floods. So, the electricity will be extra cheap.

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

1 minute ago, Tomasz said:

7.1 bcm in January-September 2021

From 3 December 2019 untill today 12 bcm

...which is still a ways off 38 bcm nominal, QED.

[Tomasz + 1,608]

But if we talk about long-term perspective according to russian press (maybe more propaganda one) it looks like this

https://www.rubaltic.ru/article/ekonomika-i-biznes/20211115-pribaltika-dobilas-energeticheskoy-nezavisimosti-ot-rossii-gaz-uydet-v-kitay/ 

Quote

 

Construction of the Soyuz Vostok gas pipeline from Russia to China will begin in 2024. This was reported by the Monzame news agency in reference to Mongolian Deputy Prime Minister Sainbuyangiin Amarsaykhan. A feasibility study (FS) of the project should be completed in the near future. Then Gazprom will have to agree on guaranteed export volumes with China and sign a transit agreement with Mongolia. The process promises to be long and difficult, but as a result, Russia receives the second string of the Siberian Power, which makes the European gas market negligible and peripheral for PJSC Gazprom.

The first trunk pipeline, which China receives blue fuel from Russia, started operating quite recently - in December 2019. Just a few months later, the coronavirus pandemic broke out, due to quarantine restrictions on the global hydrocarbon market, there was a serious imbalance between supply and demand. Sometimes Gazprom had to sell its products at a price lower than its own cost (there was no question of profit then).

The leadership of the Russian Federation, as expected, has been the subject of harsh criticism from "experts" who mock its "ill-considered" energy policy. They built the Power of Siberia, but it, they say, turned out to be "powerless" and "irrelevant."

By 2021, talks about it had died down.

In China, the energy crisis is raging no less severely than in Europe. The country is painfully short of fossil fuels, daily coal production has risen to record levels, and gas supplies by the Siberian Power in late October exceeded the Russian monopoly's contractual obligations by more than 19%.

Gazprom's products for China in the third quarter of this year. increased to $ 171 per thousand cubic meters, but still out of competition.
For comparison: in July, Turkmenistan sold gas to the Blue Empire for $ 238, Kazakhstan for $ 195, and Uzbekistan for $ 193.

No wonder that against this background, Mongolian Deputy Prime Minister Sainbuyangiin Amarsaykhan made a landmark statement on the prospects for the Soyuz Vostok gas pipeline.

According to him, a feasibility study for the project should be prepared by the end of the year. After that, the governments of Russia and Mongolia will conclude an agreement on the regulation of tariffs and start preparatory work.

Soyuz Vostok should become a continuation of the second branch of the Siberian Force, which will connect China with Russian gas fields via Mongolia.
Work on this project began at the end of 2019, when Ulan Bator signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Gazprom. Subsequently, the Soyuz Vostok Gas Pipeline special purpose vehicle was registered in Mongolia and a joint working group with the Russians was established. The fruit of its activity should be a concrete project to build a new pipe.

“The export capacity of the Power of Siberia - 2 gas pipeline may exceed the capacity of the Power of Siberia gas pipeline more than 1.3 times. This will make it possible to deliver gas from Western Siberia for export in large quantities not only to the west, but also to the east, ”informs the PJSC Gazprom news department.

The idea of creating additional gas transmission infrastructure for export to the PRC came from the company long before the launch of the Siberian Power.

In fact, she saw the project as a first step towards a huge and potentially the most attractive Chinese market in the world.
In 2018, the RuBaltic.Ru analytical portal wrote that Russia does not exclude the construction of Power of Siberia - 2 (Altai) and Power of Siberia - 3 highways. The maximum task was expressed by the head of Gazprom, Alexei Miller: to increase the volume of exports to China to 110 billion cubic meters of gas annually.

If all goes according to plan, Siberia's Force One will reach its design capacity (38 billion cubic meters) in 2024. At the same time, the construction of a new gas pipeline will begin, which will allow Mongolia not only to become a transit country for Russian gas, but also to take it over for its own needs, which will reduce its dependence on coal.

Russia has many pitfalls on this path. It still has to solve its main task - to conclude a long-term contract for gas supplies directly with Beijing.

The construction of Siberia-2 Force will not begin until Gazprom receives firm guarantees from its Chinese partners. And Mongolia will receive such transit guarantees only after Russia's agreement with China.

These negotiations promise to be difficult as the Celestial Empire is not seeking to dramatically increase the volume of energy imports. It produces significant amounts of gas by itself. Moreover, the Chinese, like the Europeans, are moving towards carbon neutrality. It's just that their plans are not as well publicized as the infamous "green deal" of the EU.

“China is undergoing a global economic restructuring to meet its zero-emission parameters. This is what "Soviet-Russian propaganda" talks about and shows, and Beijing itself makes ambitious statements in international forums. It is still a secret, writes Maria Zakharova, press secretary of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

On the other hand, China's climate policy has become one of the causes of the energy crisis that has engulfed the country.
Certainly, the country's leaders will have enough wisdom to realize this and conclude that the hydrocarbon era will not end in 10-15 years. There will be enough time for the profitability of the second line of "Forces of Siberia".

Incidentally, the question remains whether Russia will be able to attract Chinese capital to finance the construction of the new pipe. Gazprom is interested in this, while Beijing's position is still unclear. But this is just one of the technical problems that can be solved if needed. The most important thing in this matter is the political will of the Russian and Chinese authorities.

Work on the project "Strength of Siberia - 2" can already be called a great "victory" for the European Union and its eastern periphery - Poland and the Baltic republics.
It was they who created the most unfavorable working conditions for "Gazprom" in the western direction: they supported the standards of the 3rd energy package, sabotaged the construction of "Nord Stream - 2", initiated endless proceedings in the Stockholm arbitration, etc.

Under the pretext of fighting for "energy independence" from the Russian Federation, hypocritical Europeans created the so-called "Consumer market". They hoped that "Gazprom" would have to compete for them with suppliers of liquefied natural gas and producers of "green" energy.

But Gazprom had no choice but to diversify the export of its products.
Because he depends on Europe no less than Europe depends on him.

The increase in Russian gas supplies to China should not necessarily be the result of a reduction in supplies to EU countries. Ideally, Gazprom should increase its total export volume by developing new fields.

If they are "pushed" out of traditional outlets, free volumes of "blue fuel" will flow to the PRC.
Nord Stream - 2 will remain the last of Russia's export gas pipelines for Europe. She no longer needs new ones.

Even more so, Gazprom does not need them. He turns to face China.

 

 

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

29 minutes ago, Tomasz said:

But if we talk about long-term perspective according to russian press (maybe more propaganda one) it looks like this

https://www.rubaltic.ru/article/ekonomika-i-biznes/20211115-pribaltika-dobilas-energeticheskoy-nezavisimosti-ot-rossii-gaz-uydet-v-kitay/ 

 

All true, but the critical bit is the redirection of the traditional West Siberian fields away from EU. Even if there is less Chinese supply, they'll just add liquefaction trains in Nakhodka and supply Japan. A pipeline to South Korea is also not out of the question.

[Tomasz + 1,608]

Difference between long term price oil-linked  and sport price - polish case

Quote

"The gas oil price differential to the spot market is currently at least $ 510 per thousand cubic meters.

And so, Interfax reports, citing the FAS, about $ 280 per thousand cubic meters of fuel, the price of which only includes the cost of the oil basket."

At the same time, for Poland, the price may be shaped according to one of the formulas currently used by Gazprom for Europe. For example, the cost of fuel consists of 70% of the stock price and 30% of the crude oil basket.

Moldova is currently paying this price - $ 790 per thousand cubic meters after a discount.

According to Gazprom, between October 2020 and April 2021, Poland imported 5 billion cubic meters of Russian gas. Data from October this year show that gas supplies from Russia have been exceeded and that the country will have no alternative sources to replace Russian gas in the winter.

Thus, in this heating season, gas costs in Poland may amount to at least USD 3.95 billion, and the overpayment to the price related to crude oil is + USD 2.55 billion. ""

 

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

On 11/2/2021 at 12:10 PM, dukeNukem said:

Gas ( as well as oil) is fossil product. According to organic theory.

I am a subscriber to alternate abiogenic theory. Because there are oil-like "fossil fuels" and outright oceans of LNG in outer space and locations on Earth that cannot conceivably be sedimentary. Only coal appears to be a legit fossil fuel to me, as we are seeing all the intermediaries mid-flight (peat and lignite)

[Starschy + 211]

6 hours ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

...which is still a ways off 38 bcm nominal, QED.

The 38 bcm becomes active in 2025 its all long documented by Gazprom.

Poland is in great trouble because they dont get the LNG Volume. Annually the get 4 bcm a year instead of 10 bcm meaning about one third and the rest is by Gazprom. Poland anounced closing of the Gazprom contract end of 2022. As example between June - sept 2021 they imported only below 1 bcm probably fear the relative high price then.

The LNG way is not for big volume contracts.

Edited November 20, 2021 by Starschy
added Poland