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Monday 9/13 - "High Natural Gas Prices Today Will Send U.S. Production Soaring Next Year" by Irina Slav

Tom Nolan in Nat Gas / LNG

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https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Soaring-Energy-Prices-Are-Bad-News-For-Bidens-Ambitious-Climate-Plan.html

Soaring Energy Prices Are Bad News For Biden’s Ambitious Climate Plan

By Tsvetana Paraskova - Oct 21, 2021, 4:00 PM CDT

  • The timing of the current global energy crunch could not be worse for Joe Biden, who is attempting to push his climate plan through congress before COP26 at the end of this month
  • High gasoline prices are one of the few things that all President’s fear and the prospect of making energy even more expensive is proving to be a tough sell
  • Democratic Senator Joe Manchin, who represents coal-producing state West Virginia, is set to vote against the bill

President Joe Biden’s climate plan has become increasingly difficult to sell to a divided Congress amid a global energy crunch that has sent oil, natural gas, and coal prices rallying and gasoline prices in America jumping to the highest level in seven years.   

The Biden Administration wants to shift America’s power generation to 100-percent carbon pollution-free sources by 2035 and make the United States a net-zero emissions economy by 2050 with climate packages aimed at incentivizing renewable energy sources and transport electrification and penalizing fossil fuel producers and power generators with additional fees and taxes. 

Earlier this month, the U.S. oil benchmark, WTI Crude, topped $80 per barrel for the first time since 2014, gasoline prices are also at their highest since 2014, and Americans have been warned they will be paying much higher energy prices this winter. 

Rallying Global Energy Prices 

Although some U.S. energy prices - such as natural gas - are expected to be spared from the global crunch and the skyrocketing price rallies in Europe and Asia, President Biden’s climate plan that aims to restrict U.S. oil and natural gas production and levy additional taxes on the industry looks shakier than ever, even among some moderate Democrats. 

Reducing American oil and gas production - while demand is not going away anytime soon - will expose the United States to the international energy markets and prices. The U.S. will have to boost its imports of oil from counties such as Saudi Arabia or Iraq, exposing itself to a market dominated and controlled by OPEC. The current gas crisis in Europe, where power prices have hit records in major economies, including Germany and the UK, is a reminder that 100-percent clean energy power grids need huge battery storage (not yet built out) or natural gas as a backup. 

Europe’s dependence on natural gas imports and the crisis unfolding now should serve as a reminder for the U.S. Administration as it attempts to make the cost of producing natural gas and oil in America more expensive, oil associations and critics of the climate plan say. 

“The situation in Europe should serve as a huge warning to the Biden Administration and Members of Congress calling for punitive taxes, fees, and onerous new regulatory requirements on our industry,” American Exploration and Production Council (AXPC) CEO Anne Bradbury said last week. 

“By pursuing policies that restrict supply and make it harder to produce oil and natural gas here in America, Americans will have to pay more for their energy,” Bradbury added. 

“As we have seen in Europe and elsewhere, the world cannot address climate change without being realistic about growing global energy demand. American oil and natural gas producers stand ready to work with this administration to meet that dual challenge,” she said. 

Biden Struggling With High Gasoline Prices 

Just as President Biden tries to push climate legislation in the $3.5-trillion social spending bill, he faces the highest gasoline prices in seven years. They are the result of rallying international crude oil prices amid recovering global demand and muted supply response from producers, including from the U.S. shale patch. 

“Compared to the price of gas a year ago, it now costs consumers about $17 more to fill up their vehicles,” AAA spokesperson Andrew Gross noted earlier this week, when AAA said, “sorry folks, but the cost of gasoline is still going up.”

“And unfortunately, it doesn’t look like drivers will be finding relief at the pump any time soon,” Gross added. 

The price of gasoline is one of the few things that scare every American president, including President Biden. 

The President reportedly discussed the rallying fuel prices with representatives of the U.S. oil industry earlier this month, while the White House signaled this week that the Biden Administration hadn’t given up on calling on OPEC+ to increase supply to the market to bring crude and gasoline prices down. 

Moreover, Americans will see much higher residential energy bills this winter due to high U.S. retail energy prices, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said last week. 

“Affordability Is Not Optional”

Amid rallying energy prices this year, President Biden’s climate package proposal in the $3.5-trillion bill stands on shaky ground as Joe Manchin, a moderate Democratic Senator representing major coal-producing state West Virginia, opposes measures to penalize utilities using fossil fuels as he calls for reliable energy supply. 

“Affordability is not optional. I’m concerned we are on a runaway rise,” Manchin, chairman of the U.S. Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, said at the end of last month during a committee oversight hearing of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC). 

After Senator Manchin opposed the climate proposal, Democrats in the Senate are now scrambling to find alternatives and are pressing Manchin to propose such, Politico reported earlier this week. 

At the same time, the most progressive Democrats have signaled they won’t have a spending bill without a package addressing climate change in it. 

President Biden is also running against the clock, hoping he can go to the COP26 climate summit in Glasgow in early November with a deal on climate action secured. 

For climate activists and some governments that have pledged net-zero by 2050, the recent surge in energy prices is just another reason to push for a fast move away from fossil fuels to shake off dependence on volatile prices. 

Yet, reality showed that oil and gas demand is bouncing back strongly after the pandemic, which was not the final nail in the coffin of fossil fuels, as some had predicted. A move away from oil and gas - especially in U.S. domestic production - will even increase price volatility if the energy systems, power grids, and battery storage are not prepared to deal with demand. 

Right now, they are not. 

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

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https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/US-Oil-Rig-Count-Slips-For-The-First-Time-In-Six-Weeks.html

U.S. Oil Rig Count Slips For The First Time In Six Weeks

By Julianne Geiger - Oct 22, 2021, 12:16 PM CDT

  • The number of oil and gas rigs in the United States fell by 1 this week
  • The total rig count is now at 542, up 255 from this time last year

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https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Why-Are-Private-Equity-Firms-Dumping-US-Shale-Gas-Assets.html

Why Are Private Equity Firms Dumping U.S. Shale Gas Assets?

By Charles Kennedy - Oct 22, 2021, 11:00 AM CDT

Private equity firms are selling their assets and operations in U.S. shale plays to take advantage of soaring gas prices, Reuters has reported, noting the Haynesville play alone has seen deals worth $16.5 billion since the start of the year.

The data comes from energy analytics firm Enverus.

The Haynesville play is the second-largest shale formation in the United States and is next month seen producing 13.6 billion cu ft of gas daily. This would be a record high and equal to about 15 percent of total U.S. shale gas output.

Haynesville appears to be a more attractive destination for investors than other shale gas plays because it still has spare pipeline capacity to export hubs on the Gulf Coast, Reuters notes in its report.

Right now, exports look particularly good for energy firms because of the spike in demand from Europe and Asia amid an inventory crunch that has pushed gas prices to record highs.

As a result of these developments, the price for acreage in Haynesville is on the rise, too. According to Enverus director Andrew Dittmar, two years ago, one company sold for $3,000 per acre, adjusted for production. In two deals this year, the price per acre was four times higher than that.

As for the prospective buyers, these would be export-focused producers such as Tellurian, which said it was considering an expansion of its assets in Haynesville ahead of the start of construction of its Driftwood LNG facility.

LNG has seen a fresh wave of planned capacity amid Europe’s and Asia’s energy crunch, requiring more producing assets for the companies making these plans.

“We are aggressively pursuing upstream acquisitions,” Charif Souki, co-founder and executive chairman of Tellurian, said, as quoted by Reuters. “There are plenty of targets in the Haynesville that make sense.”

By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com

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https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Biden-Gasoline-Prices-Wont-Go-Down-Until-2022.html

Biden: Gasoline Prices Won't Go Down Until 2022

By Irina Slav - Oct 22, 2021, 10:00 AM CDT

  • Biden: high gasoline prices like to extend into next year
  • Biden blames OPEC policies
  • These latest claims that high American gas prices were the responsibility of OPEC are unlikely to make the cartel more cooperative

High fuel prices at the pump would likely extend into next year, President Joe Biden has warned, blaming the price rise on OPEC policies.

“My guess is you’ll start to see gas prices come down as we get by and going into the winter -- excuse me, into next year, in 2022,” the president at a public event in response to a question on inflation, as quoted by Bloomberg. “I don’t see anything that’s going to happen in the meantime that’s going to significantly reduce gas prices.”

“Gas prices relate to a foreign policy initiative that is about something that goes beyond the cost of gas,” Biden also said, adding. “That’s because of the supply being withheld by OPEC, and so there’s a lot of negotiation that is—there’s a lot of Middle Eastern folks who want to talk to me,” he said. “I’m not sure I’m going to talk to them, but the point is it’s about gas production. There’s things we can do in the meantime, though.”

The president, however, stopped short of going into the specifics of these “things” that can be done to push prices lower.

The White House has, several times since the start of the year, approached OPEC—and Saudi Arabia separately—in an attempt to make the cartel add more supply to international markets. These attempts have so far failed to yield any results. These latest claims that high American gas prices were the responsibility of OPEC are unlikely to make the cartel more cooperative.

Meanwhile, the administration has also approached the U.S. oil industry, too, to ask for more oil. That move has also failed to produce any results for American drivers as prices creep closer to $4 per gallon and in some states, exceed it. According to a Reuters report, the approach by the White House had not been met eagerly by the oil industry. In fact, the agency quoted one industry executive as saying there was no chance drillers would heed Biden’s plea for more oil due to his administration’s policies so far.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 

RELATED to Biden and what people think about his policies...

'Let's Go Brandon' Rap Kicks Into Overdrive As Dancing Hotties Go Viral

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/lets-go-brandon-rap-kicks-overdrive-dancing-hotties-go-viral

VIDEO of COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAMES

Fuck Joe Biden chant is sweeping the nation.

https://youtu.be/77JOGi7U0qw

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https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Putin-Not-All-OPEC-Producers-Can-Ramp-Up-Output-Quickly.html

Putin: Not All OPEC+ Producers Can Ramp Up Output Quickly

By Tsvetana Paraskova - Oct 22, 2021, 9:00 AM CDT

  • Putin: “Currently, the OPEC+ countries are increasing production volumes, even slightly more than they agreed to do, but not everyone can do it,”
  • Some OPEC+ members—including OPEC’s Angola and Nigeria and non-OPEC’s Azerbaijan—have struggled to raise their oil production
  • OPEC+ saw its overall compliance with the collective oil production cuts at 115 percent in September

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https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-And-Gas-Stocks-Are-Popular-Once-Again.html

Oil And Gas Stocks Are Popular Once Again

By Irina Slav - Oct 21, 2021, 7:00 PM CDT

  • Energy stocks outperformed the S&P 500 over the last month, climbing 53.8% compared to 20.2 percent for the broader index
  • The global energy crunch highlighted the importance of fossil fuels and has fund managers backtracking on the ESG trend
  • It seems oil and gas stocks may have further to rise as winter looms and inflationary fears threaten to push oil prices higher

Funds that have spent years reducing their exposure to oil and gas stocks because of the ESG trend are now scrambling to get back in on the fossil fuel game. Reuters' David Randall wrote this week that allocations to energy stocks from fund managers gained 23 percentage points over the last month as energy stocks strongly outperformed the S&P 500, enjoying a 53.8-percent rise compared with 20.2 percent for the broader index.

According to Randall, the energy stock rally caught fund managers by surprise. This implies that many had believed that the ESG trend would strengthen and grow uninterrupted. There was good reason for that belief, too, as asset managers with trillions of dollars in assets and other large institutional investors commit to net-zero policies for them and their clients.

Yet, the harsh reality seems to be that there is still a future - and returns - in fossil fuels, especially as energy demand increases as the northern hemisphere moves closer to winter. The ongoing energy crunch has led to urgent revisions of oil and gas demand by various forecasters and even to calls for more investment in oil and gas production from parties including none other than the International Energy Agency, which earlier this year called for the immediate end of such investments to reach net-zero targets.

OPEC has also been calling for more investments in oil and gas to fill the gap between supply and demand. In the meantime, however, it has kept a lid on production, limiting supply and fueling the price rally. With this, it has once again established itself as the ultimate swing factor for oil prices as well as oil's role in the global energy mix for the foreseeable future.

Related: Middle East Oil Exporters To See Fast Economic Growth In 2022

"I have a sneaking suspicion that energy prices may be elevated for a while because it will take some time for the supply side to catch up," Jack Janasiewicz, portfolio strategist at Natixis Investment Managers, told Reuters' Randall.

Indeed, the catching-up part would be challenging because it, again, depends on OPEC and its willingness to boost production. U.S. producers could have stepped in and started pumping more, but it appears that their shareholders have other priorities, chief among them cash returns after years of fruitless anticipation as producers bet on uncontrolled production growth.

President Biden has called on the U.S. oil and gas industry to step in and fix the tight supply problem, but, according to industry insiders, companies are unlikely to heed the call after Biden came into office with a clearly anti-oil agenda, Reuters reported earlier this month.

With supply remaining tight, crude inventories are falling across the OECD and the U.S., adding to the upward potential of oil prices and boosting energy stocks further. And while there is some concern the rally will eventually end, this end is not exactly in sight yet, prompting fund managers to reverse their strategy from recent years.

Related: The Battle For Oil Market Share Heats Up Within OPEC 

Things might get even worse for oil bears. OPEC's spare production capacity is threatened by a substantial decline, from around 9 million bpd in the first quarter of this year to some 4 million bpd by the second quarter of 2022 as the cartel ramps up production to pre-pandemic levels, the IEA said in its latest monthly oil report.

Meanwhile, inflationary pressures are also supporting higher oil prices. There are some who still believe rising inflation is a temporary problem, but others are warier as reflected by the increased interest of funds in energy stocks and the increased buying on oil futures markets.

With persistent supply chain problems, labor shortages in the U.S., and the slim chance of energy demand beginning to ebb anytime soon, inflation is likely to hang around for a while, stimulating higher oil and gas prices, and rewarding the stocks of the companies that produce them, despite the popularity of ESG investing trends.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

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https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Putin-Lays-Cards-Down-Approve-Nord-Stream-2-To-Get-More-Gas.html

Putin Lays Cards Down: Approve Nord Stream 2 To Get More Gas

By Irina Slav - Oct 22, 2021, 11:30 AM CDT

Russia could immediately increase natural gas deliveries to Europe as soon as German authorities approve the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, the Financial Times reports, citing President Vladimir Putin as saying gas can be delivered “the day after tomorrow” if approval is granted “tomorrow”.

Putin said Russia could deliver an additional 17.5 billion cu m of gas if the new pipeline gets the green light. This amount, according to the FT, is equal to a tenth of Russian gas deliveries to Europe and Turkey last year and would come not a moment too soon as Europe continues to struggle to fill up its reserves ahead of winter.

However, the Russian president’s statement is also likely to spark anger in Europe since it confirms suspicions that Russia wants to withhold additional supplies for Europe until Nord Stream 2 is approved. Moscow officials have said that Gazprom was prioritizing domestic energy security, and the company itself has repeatedly stated that it had fulfilled its delivery obligations under long-term contracts with European buyers.

Earlier this week, sources from Moscow also hinted that there would be more gas for Europe if Nord Stream 2 is approved, Bloomberg reported. But, separately, speaking to Bloomberg, a Russian MP said, “We cannot ride to the rescue just to compensate for mistakes that we didn’t commit.”

Meanwhile, top Russian officials, including Deputy Prime Minister and former Energy Minister Alexander Novak, have argued that Europe’s gas crisis was not the result of insufficient supply but a consequence of lower than usual inventories and bad decisions on the part of politicians.

At the same time, some in Brussels are accusing Gazprom of market manipulation to make prices rise. More than 40 members of the European Parliament from all political groups have reportedly urged the European Commission to launch an investigation into Gazprom over alleged market manipulation that could have contributed to the record-high natural gas prices in Europe. 

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

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https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-oil-stocks-at-the-cushing-okla-wti-delivery-point-appear-to-be-basically-empty-11634932692?siteid=yhoof2

Why oil traders say this key crude delivery point looks ‘basically empty’

Published: Oct. 22, 2021 at 3:58 p.m. ET

Backwardation in the futures contracts for U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude oil implies a shortage of supplies at the Cushing, Okla. delivery hub for the contracts, an analyst told MarketWatch on Friday.

The price spread between the front-month December WTI contract CLZ21, +1.79% CL.1, +1.79% versus the WTI contract for December 2022 CLZ22, +0.17% has reached levels that haven’t been seen for years, said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at The Price Futures Group. Prices for December crude of this year are going higher, while prices for contracts further out are “lagging.”

That’s a condition known as backwardation — the front-month contracts are trading higher than prices for later months.

On Friday, front-month December WTI crude futures rose $1.26, or 1.5%, to settle at $83.76 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The December WTI contract for 2022, meanwhile, settled at just $72.06 a barrel.

Read: U.S. oil futures score the longest weekly winning streak on record

Backwardation in WTI oil futures indicates that oil supplies at the all-important Cushing, Okla. delivery point are “basically empty.’

— Phil Flynn, The Price Futures Group

That backwardation tells us that oil supplies at the all-important Cushing, Okla. delivery point for the WTI futures contract are “basically empty” because people are buying as much crude in the front end of the curve as they can get their hands on,” Flynn said. Meanwhile, the back end of the curve is under pressure given the assumption that “by next year, those supplies might refill the empty caverns.”im-422330?width=700&height=241

Source: Energy Information Administration

“This is the exact opposite of what was happening during the depths of the COVID demand crush, when WTI oil prices fell below zero” in April 2020, said Flynn.

For the week ended Oct. 15, Cushing, Okla. ending stocks, excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, was at 31.2 million barrels — the lowest since October 2018, according to the Energy Information Administration.

An EIA report from late September said Cushing oil inventories were down more than 40% from the beginning of this year.

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October 21st – The Washington Post
Inaction on climate change imperils millions of lives, doctors say
Top medical journal warns that rising temperatures will worsen heat and respiratory illness and spread infectious disease
https://archive.md/C2RaG
Climate change is set to become the “defining narrative of human health,” a top medical journal warned Wednesday — triggering food shortages, deadly disasters and disease outbreaks that would dwarf the toll of the coronavirus. But aggressive efforts to curb greenhouse gas emissions from human activities could avert millions of unnecessary deaths, according to the analysis from more than 100 doctors and health experts.

In its annual “Countdown on health and climate change,” the Lancet provides a sobering assessment of the dangers posed by a warming planet….
[BE AFRAID ! ]

Oct 22 – Reuters Video (transcript at Yahoo)
Climate change leaves youth fearing for the future
https://www.yahoo.com/news/climate-change-leaves-youth-fearing-165752642.html
~~WWW reuters.com/video/watch/climate-change-leaves-youth-fearing-for-id737187917?chan=8gwsyvzx
…Research into climate anxiety has stacked up to measure its prevalence ahead of the COP26 climate summit in Glasgow.
A study funded by Avaaz, an online campaign network, surveyed 10,000 young people aged 16-25 in ten different countries.
Around three quarters of those surveyed said they considered the future frightening….

Oct 21 – OilPrice.com
Doc Leak Reveals Countries Lobby For Milder Climate Commitments
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Doc-Leak-Reveals-Countries-Lobby-For-Milder-Climate-Commitments.html
A massive document leak has revealed efforts by Saudi Arabia, Japan, and Australia, among others, were lobbying the United Nations to downplay the urgency of the energy transition as presented in the latest report by the International Panel on Climate Change.
The BBC reports [LINK] that the leak also reveals an unwillingness of wealthy nations to shoulder part of the burden that the energy transition would put on poorer nations….

Oct 21 – Yahoo News
Biden administration report foresees ‘tens of millions’ of climate change refugees in the coming decades
https://archive.md/6lpML

Thursday Oct 21 – Zero Hedge
JPM: “We Could Be Just Weeks Away From Cushing Effectively Running Out Of Crude”
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/jpm-we-could-be-just-weeks-away-cushing-being-out-crude
…Cushing crude storage fell to 31.2 mb last week as noted in the chart above. And because operational tank bottoms are likely 20-25% of capacity- or about 20 mb – JPM predicts that “we could be just weeks away from Cushing being effectively out of crude” and adds that “if nothing were to change in the Cushing balance over the next two months, we might expect front WTI spreads to spike to record highs—a “super backwardation” scenario.”….

 

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Oct 21, 2021 – Children’s Health Defense – The Defender
Personal Carbon Allowances: Who Determines ‘Good’ and ‘Bad’ Consumption, and Who Regulates the Regulators?
The desire to preserve the environment and protect future generations is largely universal, but are Personal Carbon Allowances and a system of surveillance capitalism, with tremendous controls over human behavior, the way to accomplish this objective?
https://childrenshealthdefense.org/defender/personal-carbon-allowances-surveillance-capitalism/

EXCERPTS
…The impetus for the “no hamburger for you” scenario stems from proposals, increasingly popular in scientific and policymaking circles, for the implementation of “personal carbon allowances” (PCAs).

The PCA concept itself is not new. In 2008, for example, the UK government examined a proposal for PCAs as a means of reducing emissions.

However, the COVID pandemic, and the extraordinary measures implemented in response to it, may have helped lay the groundwork for public acceptance of the PCA scheme.

An August 2021 article in Nature, “Personal Carbon Allowances Revisited,” made precisely this point. The article directly connected the measures imposed during the pandemic with the argument in favor of PCAs.

The authors emphasized the “need for a low-carbon recovery from the COVID-19 crisis” via the use of PCAs, noting that during the pandemic, “restrictions on individuals for the sake of public health, and forms of individual accountability and responsibility that were unthinkable only one year before, have been adopted by millions of people.”

According to the article, “people may be more prepared to accept the tracking and limitations related to PCAs to achieve a safer climate and the many other benefits … associated with addressing the climate crisis.”

The authors also argued that “other lessons that could be drawn [from the pandemic] relate to the public acceptance in some countries of additional surveillance and control in exchange for greater safety.”…

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https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Peak-Oil-Demand-Forecasts-Turn-Sour-As-Demand-Keeps-Growing.html

Peak Oil Demand Forecasts Turn Sour As Demand Keeps Growing

By Irina Slav - Oct 23, 2021, 6:00 PM CDT

  • Predicting oil—or, apparently, gas—prices is a notoriously uncertain business
  • Over the longer term, predicting oil prices becomes even more challenging
  • But besides crazy bets on high oil prices in the near future, there are other signs that the demise of fossil fuels has been greatly exaggerated

In the mind of many a news consumer, oil is on its way out. So is coal. So is gas, although that one might stick around for a little longer. We are, after all, moving into a new era of clean energy, and while it will take us some time to get there, it’s our only option for a future. And fossil fuels have no place in that future.

The latest oil, gas, and coal price rally, therefore, must have come as a shock to that hypothetical news consumer. It turns out, this rally said, that news does not always reflect reality. Neither do oil and gas price forecasts. Remember when there was a gas glut, as recently as last year? Everyone said it would persist, keeping prices low. But it didn’t. The glut ended quite suddenly this year.

Predicting oil—or, apparently, gas—prices is a notoriously uncertain business. This, however, is not stopping hundreds if not thousands of people from doing it on a daily basis, with varying degrees of success. Right now, most forecasters seem to expect prices to continue rising because there are simply too many factors working to support them.

Over the longer term, predicting oil prices becomes even more challenging. Right now, it is especially challenging because few forecasters appear to have anticipated the current rally, and now a flurry of revisions are being made, according to a New York Times report. The revisions are not about average oil prices this year and next, however. They concern peak oil demand: one of the few necessary conditions for every net-zero scenario.

The dominant narrative is that the renewable energy rush will kill off oil demand growth in a few years, a decade at most. Yet this narrative never foresaw the current rally for some reason. It never factored in the possibility of a surge in the demand for coal, not just in the usual place—emerging economies—but in countries such as the United States, where coal consumption is on track to rise for the first time since 2014. The energy crunch this year disrupted a lot of narratives.

The short-term price outlook is quite fascinating. Crude oil inventories are being drawn down across the world, and OPEC+ is sticking to its original decision to add just 400,000 bpd to combined monthly output. It is, however, not doing even that because some of its members are struggling to fill their production quotas due to underinvestment that has been plaguing them for years.

Demand, meanwhile, is rising, with the energy crunch seen adding anywhere between 500,000 bpd and 750,000 bpd to the global daily average. This, combined with reports that U.S. crude oil inventories are some 6 percent below the five-year average for this time of the year, and that OECD inventories are 162 million barrels below the pre-COVID five-year average, has been very effective in keeping prices above $80 per barrel and spurring forecasts for three-digit prices.

This is what usually happens when prices are rising, but this time the rise was not exactly the usual one, part of the cycle of commodity prices. This time, prices were pushed up by a severe shortage of energy sources—fossil fuel energy sources. This fact could have spurred a much-needed discussion about governments’ approach to the renewable energy shift, but it hasn’t, not publicly. Yet it has spurred doubts that the shift would work exactly as governments plan it. And price forecasts reflect these doubts.

Some are already talking about $200 Brent and not only talking but betting on it. These may be crazy bets, but they do reflect a heightened uncertainty about the prospects of oil demand, much more heightened than usual. In reality, Brent rising to $200 a barrel could only happen in case of a severe reduction in production, and that is unlikely to happen as soon as next year, if ever.

But besides the crazy bets, there are also other signs that the demise of fossil fuels has been greatly exaggerated. Fund managers are returning to oil and gas stocks, Reuters reported this week. Despite the push into ESG investing over the past few years, funds are now eager to boost their exposure to oil and gas, thanks to this year’s stock price rally. Energy stocks have outperformed the S&P 500 substantially: they’ve booked a 53.8-percent increase over the past month, versus 20.2 percent for the broader index.

Now, the biggest question is about the longevity of the rally. No oil price rally lasts forever but, according to the NYT, this time there are two quite different explanations that would determine the longer-term outlook for oil price movements. One is for a short-term price boost from pandemic-related factors. The other is a disparity between emissions ambitions and the capabilities to fulfill these ambitions.

Some would like to bet on the first explanation: that the current oil price rally is little more than a fossil fuel version of the dead cat bounce and fossil fuels are truly on their way out under the advance of wind, solar, and hydrogen. Yet, the second explanation rings truer in the context of investment decisions.

A recent UNEP report warned that oil and gas production plans by the 15 biggest producers are at great odds with the Paris Agreement emission targets. In other words, these 15 biggest producers continue to bet on oil and gas, despite emission ambitions, including their own stated net-zero targets. Oil may not reach $200 next year or ever, but it might end up being around and in wide use for longer than many might have hoped and believed.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

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Irina Slav

Irina is a writer for Oilprice.com with over a decade of experience writing on the oil and gas industry.

Latest articles from Irina

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Oilfield Service Companies Can’t Catch A Break

By Haley Zaremba - Oct 23, 2021, 4:00 PM CDT

  • Though the global energy crunch is not impacting the United States as much as its European and Asian counterparts, it will have an impact on Permian producers.
  • Permian Basin production costs are expected to rise by 10 to 15 percent in the coming year. 
  • Rising energy costs could have a devastating impact on global economies.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Oilfield-Service-Companies-Cant-Catch-A-Break.html

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Will The Energy Sector Continue To Outperform The Market?

By Robert Rapier - Oct 23, 2021, 12:00 PM CDT

  • September was a particularly bad month for overall markets.
  • The energy sector outperformed, returning 14% over the course of the month.
  • Major refiners struggled to keep up with integrated oil supermajors.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Will-The-Energy-Sector-Continue-To-Outperform-The-Market.html

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Boat    + 1,323

RG

On 10/22/2021 at 12:33 PM, Tom Nolan said:

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/US-Oil-Rig-Count-Slips-For-The-First-Time-In-Six-Weeks.html

U.S. Oil Rig Count Slips For The First Time In Six Weeks

By Julianne Geiger - Oct 22, 2021, 12:16 PM CDT

  • The number of oil and gas rigs in the United States fell by 1 this week
  • The total rig count is now at 542, up 255 from this time last year

Demand dropped because of COVID. Demand and production are returning. The US will grow production until OPEC freaks and floods production once again starting yet another cycle. Be patient. 

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Tom Nolan    + 2,443

TN

Deleted UK Government Report Celebrates How Public Loves To "Conform"

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/deleted-uk-government-report-celebrates-how-public-loves-conform

https://summit.news/2021/10/22/deleted-government-report-celebrates-how-public-loves-to-conform/

A deleted government report exploring how to make the public alter its behavior to accept the new ‘green economy’ reveals how COVID-19 restrictions have created a population with a “deep set reverence” for authority and a “powerful tendency to conform.”

211021public1.jpg?itok=Ibl1eXTa

 

The report was inadvertently published by the British government before being hastily pulled down, but numerous journalists were able to retrieve its contents.

The document explored how to weaponize behavioral psychology to ‘nudge’ the public into supporting measures and adopting behavior without them explicitly knowing they’re being manipulated.

The investigation found that the same techniques the government used to force people into accepting lockdown could be used to make them change their lifestyles in the name of preventing climate change.

Under the heading “principles for successful behaviour,” the paper noted;

“Government statements, actions and laws powerfully shape perceptions of normative and acceptable behaviour. For instance, even with public criticism being high, many still perceived government approval as the yardstick for safe behaviour during COVID-19 ‘we’re allowed to do this now [so must be safe]…’. This reveals, for many, a deep set reverence for legitimate government authority, regardless of one’s personal political views.”

While PR stunts such as having officials vaccinated live on television worked to convince people of the narrative, elite hypocrisy (public officials violating lockdown rules) was found to cause significant damage to public trust.

“Perceived hypocrisy can do a lot to undermine efforts to build public engagement and support. This was observed during the COVID-19 pandemic when prominent authority figures broke guidelines, leading to measurable reductions in public compliance as well as shifting attitudes.”

“Green politics has similar deep-seated reputational issues with elite hypocrisy,” notes Breitbart.

“A common feature of climate change summits has been high-profile attendees arriving by private or government jet, a disconnect between word and deed that seems unlikely to vanish in the near term.”

The paper concluded that people can be rather easily “nudged” into changing their behavior in response to government announcements and “have a powerful tendency to conform.”

The investigation also found that even if enforced changes to lifestyle are not wanted by the public, most tend to fall in line with the new status quo rather quickly anyway.

The report was prepared by the Behavioural Insights Team (BIT), a quasi-government body that was part of the effort to use “totalitarian” and “unethical” methods of instilling fear into the population as a means of scaring them into complying with lockdown rules.

A related group, the Scientific Pandemic Insights Group on Behaviours team, warned at the start of the first lockdown that a “substantial number of people still do not feel sufficiently personally threatened [by Covid-19].”

“The perceived level of personal threat needs to be increased among those who are complacent, using hard-hitting emotional messaging,” the group added, leading to numerous lurid propaganda campaigns that exaggerated the threat of COVID to bully the public into total submission.

In summary, the public is largely unthinking, compliant and docile and can be made to go along with just about anything so long as they’re bombarded with the right propaganda.

Wonderful.

  • Haha 1

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