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Monday 9/13 - "High Natural Gas Prices Today Will Send U.S. Production Soaring Next Year" by Irina Slav

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Nord Stream 2 Operator Begins Filling Pipeline Amid Historic EU Energy Crisis

Tyler Durden's Photo
by Tyler Durden
Monday, Oct 04, 2021 - 02:14 PM
 

https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/nord-stream-2-operator-begins-filling-pipeline-amid-ratcheting-eu-energy-crisis

Russia and Germany are celebrating the historic moment Monday that Nord Stream 2 AG was partially brought online, for the first time filling the front section of the pipeline with gas, at a moment European Union countries have for weeks experienced shortages and soaring prices in many places, crucially which has entered crisis mode ahead of the coming winter. 

NS2 operators announced in a Monday press release that "the procedure for filling the first string of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline has begun" and further that "the string will now be filled with gas gradually in order to achieve the volume and pressure required for further technical testing."

The next major step before gas will actually transit from Russia into northeast Germany via the Baltic Sea from the St. Petersburg region will be the moment German regulators issue authorization to turn on the taps for the gas to start flowing - considered the final hurdle before it goes fully operational. 

The final section of construction in recent weeks and months took place in Denmark's waters, with Danish inspectors and officials giving their own greenlight as well on Monday.

Previously in the face of pushback from Washington and some allies, which charge that Europe will become too energy dependent on the Kremlin, the NS2 operator said, "Nord Stream 2 will contribute to meeting the long-term needs of the European energy market for gas imports, improving supply security and reliability, and providing gas under sensible economic conditions."

The independent Moscow Times has noted of the "controversial" pipeline that leaders in Kiev will continue to lobby hard against it:

The pipeline diverts supplies from an existing route through Ukraine and is expected to deprive Europe's ally of an estimated 1 billion euros ($1.2 billion) annually in transit fees from Russia.

Ukraine — in conflict with Russia since Moscow's 2014 annexation of Crimea — has warned Europe that Nord Stream 2 could be used by Moscow as a geopolitical pressure vice.

Last month Ukraine said it will pursue all revenues of action against NS2 "even after the gas is turned on" - yet it's been met with little more than a shrug in Europe, also amid recent US sanctions targeting companies involved in the construction. 

Meanwhile NATO's Atlantic Council is marking the occasion with the following blistering critique...
DEEP STATE PROPAGANDA FOLLOWS...

#Ukraine’s network sits empty while Europe cannot get enough gas…Weaponization of Nord Stream 2 is no longer a hypothetical scenario; it is an ongoing process.”

Europe is under attack from Putin’s energy weapon

WRITTEN BY Sergiy Makogon is CEO of Ukraine’s transmission system operator GTSOU.

 

.

 

 

A big recent turning point seen as critical to allowing the pipeline to proceed to completion was the Biden administration quickly agreeing to drop sanctions on the German side of the project soon after he took office. Republicans as well as Ukrainian officials blasted the move as tantamount to caving to Putin.

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Natural Gas Stocks To Watch As The Energy Crisis Goes Global

By Alex Kimani - Oct 04, 2021, 6:00 PM CDT

  • The natural gas sector has grabbed plenty of attention of late as shortages around the world sent prices soaring by more than 130% year-to-date
  • Oil companies that are also large gas producers can provide investors with exposure to both the natural gas boom and the recent oil price rally
  • Companies that are central to the natural gas supply chain, particularly LNG companies, can provide investors with great exposure to the current price rally

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Natural-Gas-Stocks-To-Watch-As-The-Energy-Crisis-Goes-Global.html

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Hedge Funds Scramble To Buy Crude Oil Futures As Market Tightens

By Irina Slav - Oct 05, 2021, 6:00 PM CDT

  • Hedge fund speculators are having a heyday in oil markets, betting big on even higher crude prices in the short-to-medium term. 
  • Demand for oil is set to continue rising in the months to come.
  • Supply, meanwhile, remains constrained, and it’s not just OPEC+’s fault

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Hedge-Funds-Scramble-To-Buy-Crude-Oil-Futures-As-Market-Tightens.html

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Coal Makes Comeback In Europe As Gas Prices Explode

By Gerald Jansen - Oct 05, 2021, 1:00 PM CDT

  • With coal demand increasing across the planet, the supply tightness has seen European coal prices follow the global appreciation trend
  • The recent allure of coal also showcases the deficiencies of the carbon pricing mechanism
  • The current coal demand surge should force the European Union to reconsider its position on coal

As European gas prices have continued their surge throughout the past couple of weeks, the role and importance of coal has sparked a new wave of discussion across the continent.

The ideological split will drive a wedge between the European Union, a long-time champion of a coal phaseout, and corporate interests as market conditions favour gas-to-coal switching. The switching ratio has slid in coal’s favour in the last weeks of June 2021 and judging by the current futures structure, it will stay in place until at least Q2-2022. ....

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Coal/Coal-Makes-Comeback-In-Europe-As-Gas-Prices-Explode.html

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Gas Prices In Europe Are Now The Equivalent Of $205 Oil

By Tsvetana Paraskova - Oct 05, 2021, 11:00 AM CDT

  • The gas price at the Dutch TTF hub, the benchmark gas price for Europe, soared on Tuesday to above 100 euro per MWh for the first time ever
  • The energy crisis continues to worsen, and there is no immediate relief in sight, analysts say

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Gas-Prices/Gas-Prices-In-Europe-Are-Now-The-Equivalent-Of-205-Oil.html

he benchmark European gas prices continue their rally this week, surging to new record highs on Tuesday to an equivalent of $205 a barrel oil, amid a wider energy commodity rally driven by supply concerns ahead of the winter.

The gas price at the Dutch TTF hub, the benchmark gas price for Europe, soared on Tuesday to above 100 euro per MWh for the first time ever, as gas and coal prices rally in Europe and Asia and as nuclear power generation in France fell due to a strike.

The energy crisis continues to worsen, and there is no immediate relief in sight, analysts say.

"Everything looks set for another week of price climbs, as the fiercely nervous sentiment on the market continues due to fears of reduced supply during the winter. The most traded contracts on the important Dutch TTF hub once again climbed to all-time highs, and could easily continue the uptrend today," Energi Danmark said in a note on Tuesday.

According to Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, the Dutch TTF gas benchmark traded in the morning in Europe up 12 percent on the day at €106.3/MWh, equivalent to $36/MMBtu or $205 per barrel of crude oil.

The market is concerned about energy supply this winter and shrugged off Monday's news from Nord Stream 2 AG, the operator of the controversial Russia-led gas pipeline, which started filling the first string of the pipeline with gas to get ready for the moment that German authorities grant it an operational license.

With an uncertain start of Nord Stream 2, gas prices in Europe continue to surge, also due to forecasts of cold weather in north Europe and lower production of electricity from nuclear generation in France, due to a strike.

"All energy prices - coal, oil, gas, power - are up. There doesn't seem to be any let up to the rallying," a gas trader told Reuters.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

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Hyperinflation Could Send Oil Prices Above $180

By Alex Kimani - Oct 05, 2021, 7:00 PM CDT

  • Government spending has soared since 2008, but spending during Covid and the upcoming infrastructure bill represents an entirely new level of spending
  • This government spending, alongside soaring oil prices and a supply chain crisis, are threatening to cause hyperinflation
  • Some analysts see this hyperinflation leading to a devaluation of the dollar that could see oil prices breaking $180 by 2022

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Hyperinflation-Could-Send-Oil-Prices-Above-180-137.html

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China Is Desperate To Secure Latin American Oil And Coal

By Matthew Smith - Oct 05, 2021, 3:00 PM CDT

https://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/International/China-Is-Desperate-To-Secure-Latin-American-Oil-And-Coal.html

  • China’s desperation to secure the resources it needs to fuel its growth has driven it to increase its influence in Latin America
  • Colombia, Ecuador, and Venezuela are all being targeted by China due to their oil and coal wealth, and the economic reward for these countries would be huge
  • The success of China in this region would be a geopolitical nightmare for the U.S., and one which Washington will need to act quickly to counter

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Cost Of Shipping Between China And U.S. Plunges... But For The Worst Possible Reason

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/cost-shipping-between-china-and-us-plunges-worst-possible-reason

Overnight, Japan's Nikkei picked up on this writing that indeed the cost of shipping between China and the U.S. plunged this week after hitting record highs in early September as the off-season approaches, a power crunch slows Chinese manufacturing and speculators rush to sell their hoarded shipping spots.

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Silicon Metal's 300% Price Surge Throws Another Wrench In Global Supply Chains

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/silicon-metals-300-price-surge-throws-another-wrench-global-supply-chain

Bloomberg data shows silicon metal prices have jumped more than 350% since the beginning of July. This comes as power supply disruptions have become more intense over the last couple of months as CCP curbs power to energy-intensive industries because lower than the expected output at power plants has strained the country's grid. 

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Corporate Insiders With Impeccable Trading Records Send Clear Signal "Stock Market Is Rigged" 

Tyler Durden's Photo
by Tyler Durden

here are now tracking services offered to institutional and retail investors that rank top US corporate insiders on their trading track records, according to Bloomberg

It comes as no surprise that insider activity may sometimes be a good indication of the future price movement of a particular stock mainly because those in the know are likely basing decisions off nonpublic information, which outlines what our readers have known all along: the stock market is not a level playing field. 

Mississippi College School of Law professor John Anderson said, "it's really easy to say that our markets should be a level playing field, but the reality is that they never have been." He said people "come to the market because they think they have better information, better understanding than their counterparties." ....

 

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"Running Out Of Space" - UK Farmers To Cull 120,000 Pigs Amid Labor Shortages At Slaughterhouses

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/running-out-space-uk-farmers-cull-120000-pigs-amid-labor-shortages-slaughterhouses

Britain may be entering a prolonged period of crisis now, one that may be on par or even exceeds the emergencies of the late 1970s. Brits face a gasoline shortage because of the lack of truck drivers, dwindling natural gas supplies, and soaring power bills. There's also been food shortages and panic buying of essential goods that have driven up prices and made the situation much worse. 

A more extended crisis is occurring within the country's food supply chain. The latest figures from the National Pig Association (NPA) warn 120,000 pigs will be culled because of labor shortage....

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The jet stream has started an unprecedented shift north, which could wreak havoc on weather in the US and Europe

https://www.yahoo.com/news/jet-stream-started-unprecedented-shift-113500873.html


 
Aylin Woodward
Sat, October 2,
 
  • The polar jet stream is a band of wind that separates cold Arctic air from warmer air to the south.

  • A new study suggests that as the Earth warms, this band is moving north and out of position.

  • That could cause more droughts and heat waves in southern Europe and the eastern US....

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The Electricity Crisis Was Not Caused By A ‘Perfect Storm’

By Leonard Hyman & William Tilles - Oct 06, 2021, 2:00 PM CDT

  • From hydropower failures in South America to natural gas shortages in Europe, and coal prices soaring in Asia, the global electricity crisis has clearly gone global
  • While plenty of observers are willing to blame this on a ‘perfect storm’ of events, the truth is electricity providers were simply not prepared when they should have been
  • As a result of this crisis, consumers are likely to disassociate themselves from unreliable and profit-chasing producers as they search for resilience 

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Electricity-Crisis-Was-Not-Caused-By-A-Perfect-Storm.html

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UK National Grid: Consumers Will See No Respite From High Gas Prices Soon

By Tsvetana Paraskova - Oct 06, 2021, 1:00 PM CDT

  • This winter, the margin between supply and demand could be the tightest in five years: UK National Grid CEO
  • UK businesses using a lot of energy have called on the government to help them keep running throughout the winter

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/UK-National-Grid-Consumers-Will-See-No-Respite-From-High-Gas-Prices-Soon.html

Electricity supply in the United Kingdom will be tighter this winter compared to previous years, the chief executive of the UK’s National Grid told a Financial Times conference on Wednesday, noting that consumers and businesses will see no respite from the record-high gas prices soon.

This winter, the margin between supply and demand could be the tightest in five years, National Grid CEO John Pettigrew said during the Financial Times’ Energy Transition Strategies Summit today.

When margins between supply and demand are tight, the cost of additional supply to balance the grid impacts electricity bills.

While the head of the National Grid was warning about tighter power supply in the next few months, the British day-ahead natural gas price surged again to a record high on Wednesday, along with the gas price at the Dutch TTF hub, the benchmark gas price for Europe.

On Tuesday, the benchmark European gas prices jumped to an equivalent of a $205 oil barrel amid a wider energy commodity rally driven by supply concerns ahead of the winter.

Expectations of low wind speeds and colder than usual temperatures in the UK also contributed to the surge in natural gas prices this week.

In just 24 hours, the UK wholesale gas prices rallied by 37 percent, as per estimates from the BBC.

Meanwhile, UK businesses using a lot of energy have called on the government to help them keep running throughout the winter.

Some industries, including British Steel, the second-largest steel producer in the UK, warned last month that electricity prices were “spiralling out of control,” and a 50-fold jump in quoted power rates makes production unprofitable at certain times in the UK.

On Wednesday, the Energy Intensive Users Group of the UK said, via chairman Richard Leese: “We have already seen the impact of the truly astronomical increases in energy costs on production in the fertiliser and steel sectors.”

“Nobody wants to see a repeat in other industries this winter, given that UK EIIs [energy intensive industries] produce so many essential domestic and industrial products and are intrinsically linked with many supply chains,” Leese said, as quoted by the BBC.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

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EIA Sees Solid Global Demand For Oil, Gas And Renewables To 2050

By Tsvetana Paraskova - Oct 06, 2021, 12:00 PM CDT

  • If current policy and technology trends continue, global energy consumption and energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will increase through 2050 as a result of population and economic growth
  • Production of oil and natural gas are also set to grow over the next three decades, mostly to meet rising energy consumption in developing Asian economies

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/EIA-Sees-Solid-Global-Demand-For-Oil-Gas-And-Renewables-To-2050.html

Global demand for renewables will rise the most through 2050, but demand for petroleum and other liquids and natural gas will also increase, albeit at a slower pace, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) finds in its International Energy Outlook 2021 out on Wednesday.

The 2021 outlook contains EIA’s long-term projections of energy supply and demand worldwide and by region and source.

If current policy and technology trends continue, global energy consumption and energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will increase through 2050 as a result of population and economic growth, the EIA says in its outlook.  

Sales of electric vehicles (EVs) will grow, leading to a peak of the internal combustion engine fleet in developed economies in 2023, and in 2038 globally, according to the U.S. administration.

Yet, despite the rise in EV sales, global energy consumption will continue to grow, leading to growth in global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions through 2050, according to the Reference case in EIA’s outlook.

New electricity generation worldwide will come predominantly from renewable energy sources, but natural gas, coal, and increasingly batteries will still be used to help meet load and support grid reliability, the EIA notes.

“Although new generation will largely be powered by renewables, dispatchable generation sources—such as natural gas- and coal-fired generating technologies as well as batteries—will remain important, especially for grid reliability,” according to the outlook.

Production of oil and natural gas are also set to grow over the next three decades, mostly to meet rising energy consumption in developing Asian economies. Consumption of liquid fuels in emerging Asian countries is expected to nearly double by 2050 compared to 2020 in EIA’s reference case.

Asia is also set to boost its crude and petroleum products imports, which will be primarily met by increased production in the Middle East, the U.S. administration said.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

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The EU Is Panicking Over Skyrocketing Energy Prices

By Tsvetana Paraskova - Oct 06, 2021, 11:00 AM CDT

  • The benchmark European gas prices continued their rally this week, surging to new record highs on Wednesday

  • Five European countries, which include Spain and France, issued a joint statement on Wednesday on the troublesome high energy prices
  • The statement calls for a probe into the gas market and for a reform of the wholesale electricity market

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/EU-Panics-Over-Skyrocketing-Energy-Prices.html

As Europe’s benchmark gas prices hit records highs every day amid tight supply, the European Union (EU) is looking at a single-market response to the surging energy prices as it scrambles to keep its green targets amid soaring power bills.

The benchmark European gas prices continued their rally this week, surging to new record highs on Tuesday to an equivalent of $205 a barrel oil, amid a wider energy commodity rally driven by supply concerns ahead of the winter. The gas price at the Dutch TTF hub, the benchmark gas price for Europe, even topped 160 euro per MWh on Wednesday, before falling back toward 100 euro per MWh.

Some countries, such as Spain, called on the European Commission last month to provide the 27 member states with options to tackle the surging energy prices which are already hitting consumers across the bloc.

As energy prices continued to set records day after day in October, European Energy Commissioner, Kadri Simson, told the European Parliament on Wednesday:

“The Commission will present next week a toolbox of measures Members States can take in line with EU law, both short and medium term.”

“In the Commission view, Europe must respond by delivering swift coordinated action at Member States level, by leveraging the strength of its single market and by increasing its preparedness for future crisis,” Simson said during the European Parliament plenary session on energy prices.

The current energy crisis is not the result of the EU’s climate policies, which aim at a net-zero bloc by 2050, the commissioner noted.

“The current price hike has little to do with our climate policies and much to do with our dependence on imported fossil fuels and their volatile prices,” Simson said.

“The Green Deal provides the only lasting solution to Europe’s energy challenge: more renewables and improved energy efficiency,” she noted.  

Five European countries, which include Spain and France, issued a joint statement on Wednesday on the troublesome high energy prices. Among other things, the statement calls for a probe into the gas market and for a reform of the wholesale electricity market. Other mentions are calls to achieve energy independence.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

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Dominos Fall As Germany’s Largest Ammonia Producer Slashes Output Amid Energy Crisis 

Wednesday, Oct 06, 2021 - 04:15 AM

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/dominos-fall-germanys-largest-ammonia-producer-slashes-output-amid-energy-crisis

Europe's Energy Crisis Presents A Real Danger

https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/europes-energy-crisis-presents-real-danger

Authored by Daniel Lacalle,

This week the wholesale price of electricity has exceeded the psychological barrier of 200 euros per megawatt hour in most countries of the European Union. Although the daily price currently only affects 15% of the energy sold, since the rest is locked for almost twelve months since last winter at much lower prices, it is a sign of future risk. Thousands of contracts are going to have to be revised with huge price increases in the next three months when the locked contracts expire.

The price of liquefied natural gas (LNG) has soared to $34/mmbtu delivered in December and January. In comparable energy terms it would be about $197 per barrel of oil equivalent, according to Morgan Stanley. Meanwhile, the price of natural gas (NBP) has risen more than 200% in 2021....

Natural-gas futures retreat as Putin says Russia will boost supplies to Europe

https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20211006383/natural-gas-futures-retreat-as-putin-says-russia-will-boost-supplies-to-europe

U.S. crude pulls back from 7-year high ahead of inventory data

An earlier version of this article incorrectly identified the previous high for U.S. natural-gas futures. They settled Tuesday at the highest since December 2008.

Natural-gas futures pulled back sharply Wednesday after Russian President Vladimir Putin said the country would boost supplies to Europe, which is bearing the brunt of a global energy crunch, and help stabilize the market.

Putin said gas sales to Europe could hit a record and that flows via Ukraine could exceed Gazprom's contract with Kyiv, Reuters reported. Critics have accused Russia of holding back supplies.

The remarks sent natural-gas futures in Europe tumbling. After spiking nearly 40% earlier Wednesday, U.K. natural-gas futures fell by more than 5%. U.S. natural-gas futures also retreated, down nearly 7%, after ending Tuesday at its highest since December 2008.

Limited supply from Russia has been cited as one factor that's contributed to a sharp jump in natural-gas prices in Europe. U.K. natural-gas futures have jumped more than 400% in the year to date, according to FactSet.

"Low gas inventories across the globe as winter approaches have been pushing up demand in the physical market whilst supplies have been slower to respond," said Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING, in a note.

"Unplanned outages at some French nuclear power plants due to a strike has also helped the rally in European power prices yesterday and supported gas demand in the spot market," he said.

Oil futures were also in retreat, with West Texas Intermediate crude for November delivery down $1.16, or 1.5%, to $77.77 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after ending Tuesday at the highest since 2014.

November Brent crude , the global benchmark, was down $1.23, or 1.5%, at $81.33 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe, after ending at a nearly three-year high on Tuesday.

Crude was weaker after the American Petroleum Institute reported late Tuesday that U.S. crude supplies rose by 951,000 barrels for the week ended Oct. 1, according to sources. The API also reportedly showed inventory increases of 3.7 million barrels for gasoline and 345,000 barrels for distillates. Crude stocks at the Cushing, Okla., storage hub, meanwhile, edged up by about 2 million barrels for the week, sources said.

Inventory data from the Energy Information Administration will be released Wednesday morning. On average, the EIA is expected to show crude inventories up by 200,000 barrels, according to a survey of analysts conducted by S&P Global Platts. The survey also called for supply declines of 700,000 barrels for gasoline and 1.7 million-barrel decline for distillates.

-William Watts

 

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With Europe In Chaos, Putin Says Russia Ready To Help Stabilize Gas Market

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/europe-chaos-putin-says-russia-ready-help-stabilize-gas-market

Bloomberg

Merkel Dismisses Russian Role in Europe’s Energy Price Crisis

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/merkel-dismisses-russian-role-europe-142928425.html

Reuters

U.S. natgas volatility jumps to a record as prices soar worldwide

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-natgas-volatility-jumps-record-143412988.html

 

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Natural Gas Prices Plunge As Putin Promises More Supply

By Julianne Geiger - Oct 06, 2021, 4:00 PM CDT

  • Front-month Henry Hub gas prices fell along with TTF benchmark prices on Wednesday after Russian President Putin promised that his country would send more natural gas to Europe
  • Putin: current energy market crisis is the result of ''unbalanced decisions''

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Gas-Prices/Natural-Gas-Prices-Plunge-As-Putin-Promises-More-Supply.html

Natural gas futures mercifully slipped 10% on Wednesday after Russian President Vladimir Putin promised that the gas-rich nation would send more natural gas to Europe.

Gas prices are still twice as high as they were last month.

On Tuesday, natural gas futures had settled at a high not seen in more than a decade.

But Putin said Russia could send more gas to Europe via Ukraine—even more than contracted—and are set to hit a record this year.

Russia's state-run gas giant, Gazprom, has come under fire in recent weeks for failing to send as much gas to Europe as analysts have alleged it could.

Russia has denied that this is the case.

Putin also took the opportunity to blame the high natural gas prices on Europe. What's more, Putin blamed Europe's energy market crisis on the green transition.

Putin used the phrases "unbalanced decisions" and "drastic steps" when referring to how the transition away from fossil fuels and toward renewable energy was being handled.

"Some people are speculating on climate change issues, some people are underestimating some things, some are starting to cut back on investments in the extractive industries. There needs to be a smooth transition," Putin said, according to Reuters.

"They have made mistakes," Putin said during a meeting with Russian energy officials.  Putin was quick to point out the danger of relying on the spot market in favor of long-term contracts.

Putin has long maintained that the world needs oil, gas, and coal, and that the world should be focused on responsible extraction and production.

And it is this very production that the world is now clamoring for, as winter blackouts and soaring energy prices loom, not just for Europe, but for Asia and the United States as well.

By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com

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