Monday 9/13 - "High Natural Gas Prices Today Will Send U.S. Production Soaring Next Year" by Irina Slav

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 10/22/2021 at 11:56 AM, Tom Nolan said:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/asian-european-motorists-face-record-150622734.html

Asian, European motorists face record petrol prices as winter sets in

And record electricity prices, so electric car fuel will be expensive and probably less available. 

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Refiners-Suffer-From-Record-High-Natural-Gas-Prices.html

Refiners Suffer From Record High Natural Gas Prices

By Tsvetana Paraskova - Oct 24, 2021, 6:00 PM CDT

• Record natural gas prices in Europe and Asia are eroding oil refiner margins
• U.S. refiners have an advantage over Asian and European competitors in this situation due to the much lower natural gas prices in America
• Despite the higher demand for oil products this winter, some refiners in Europe and Asia may not be able to ramp up crude throughput because of the surge in natural gas prices

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Surging natural gas prices in Europe and Asia have boosted global demand for oil products, benefiting oil refiners globally. Yet, it is these record natural gas prices that have started to weigh on the refining industry, which has just rebounded from several consecutive weak quarters due to the pandemic-driven slump in fuel consumption. 

Apart from slowing down steel, chemicals, and fertilizer production in Europe, the record natural gas prices are significantly raising operating expenditures for refiners because natural gas is being used for hydrogen production at the hydrocracker and hydrotreater units that remove sulfur from higher-sulfur crude.   

U.S. refiners have an advantage over Asian and European competitors in this situation due to the much lower natural gas prices in America. Although the U.S. Henry Hub benchmark price has more than doubled since the beginning of the year, American natural gas prices are around $5 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) compared to $25-$35/mmBtu in equivalent prices in Europe and Asia. 

In recent weeks, costs for oil refiners to produce hydrogen per barrel of processed crude have jumped tenfold compared to the hydrogen input costs back in 2019, according to estimates in the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) latest monthly oil report cited by Argus. Hydrogen costs are now around $6 per barrel of processed crude, compared to just $0.60 per barrel in 2019.

Yet, due to low inventories of refined products globally, refining margins recovered strongly in the third quarter despite the rallying crude oil prices. 

Recovering fuel demand and additional demand for oil products amid record-high coal and natural gas prices have pushed up global oil refining margins to their pre-pandemic levels.  

“Implied 3Q21 refined product balances show the largest draw in eight years, which explains the strong increase in refinery margins in September despite significantly higher crude prices,” the IEA said in its latest monthly report last week.

Despite the higher demand for oil products this winter, some refiners in Europe and Asia may not be able to ramp up crude throughput because of the surge in natural gas prices. Refiners in Europe have started to recalibrate their refined product slates to limit exposure to the high costs of natural gas, which is essential for making hydrogen for treating the higher-sulfur crude grades. 

“We are impacted by the current high energy prices just like any other consumer of natural gas and electric power,” a spokeswoman for northwest European refiner Varo Energy—whose shareholders include commodity trading giant Vitol—told Reuters this week.

“To ensure we can continue to supply our customers, we have adjusted our operations to minimize our natural gas consumption whilst preserving our ability to supply products,” the spokeswoman added. 

“If you’re in Europe or Asia it’s very, very expensive so it’s bound to have an impact,” Callum Macpherson, head of commodities at Investec Plc, told Bloomberg, commenting on natural gas costs.  

For U.S. refiners, the costs are also up, but not so much as in Europe and Asia. 

For example, Valero Energy, which reported on Thursday a net income for Q3 compared to a loss for the same quarter last year, said that its refining cash operating expenses were $0.27 per barrel higher than the third quarter of 2020 primarily due to higher natural gas prices. 

“When you look at places around the world that are paying $30 a million Btu for natural gas, it pressures that refining capacity and kind of raises the incremental crack spreads needed for them to run, which also pushes margins higher,” Gary Simmons, Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer at Valero, said on the earnings call.  

Thanks to lower natural gas prices in the U.S. compared to Europe and Asia, refiners in America will not be as constrained in processing higher-sulfur crudes as their peers in other regions. The higher-sulfur grades have recently seen widening discounts to sweeter crudes, which additionally benefits refining margins for those capable of processing high-sulfur grades due to lower-cost input crude. 

In light of these developments, additional volumes of sweeter and lighter crudes could be available for exports from America to Asia and Europe, U.S. traders told Bloomberg. 

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

 

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/canada-boosts-u-natgas-exports-050000065.html

Canada boosts U.S. natgas exports, drills more as global prices surge

By Nia Williams and Scott DiSavino

CALGARY, Alberta/NEW YORK, Oct 25 (Reuters) - Demand has jumped for relatively cheap Canadian natural gas, driving exports to the United States to three-year highs and prompting producers in Canada to boost capital spending and drilling activity.

Global natural gas prices have hit multi-year highs as world economies recover from last year's slowdown during the pandemic. Now, natural gas stockpiles in Europe are dangerously low and demand in Asia has been insatiable, so utilities around the world are competing for liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports.

Canada's gas is remote, and prices at the AECO hub in Alberta are among the cheapest in North America, with production far from major U.S. demand centers and LNG export terminals in the U.S. Gulf Coast, some 2,500 miles (4,023 km) away. Canada has no LNG export terminals.

Still, at around C$5 ($4.12) per million British thermal units (mmBtu), AECO prices are well above their 2021 year-to-date average of C$3.38 ($2.73), and some of Canada's largest gas producers including Tourmaline Oil Corp are seeking to capitalize.

"A number of producers are accelerating capital into Q4 (fourth quarter) to add production volumes into the higher-priced winter market," said Matt Murphy, an analyst at Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co (TPH) in Calgary.

Gas receipts into TC Energy's NGTL pipeline system hit an all-time high of 12.75 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in mid-October, according to TPH records dating from 2013. The NGTL system is the main artery shipping western Canadian gas to market, and can be used as a proxy for output from the region.

TPH is forecasting further gas receipt growth to 12.9 bcfd in December, with new highs in 2022.

Data provider Refinitiv said Canadian exports to the United States averaged 8.3 bcfd year-to-date, the highest over that time period since 2018. In 2020, Canadian exports hit their lowest level since 1993 because of the pandemic, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration data.

The increase in drilling activity in Canada contrasts with a more cautious approach among U.S. gas producers, who are still being careful with their capital after the pandemic decimated demand in 2020 and left the industry on its knees.

The Canadian gas rig count is currently 70, up 75% from this time last year, while U.S. gas rigs are up about 32% to 98 over the same period, according to energy services firm Baker Hughes Co.

Tourmaline, Canada's largest gas producer, is accelerating drilling in the second half and bringing capital spending originally earmarked for 2022 into this year, according to a company presentation in September.

"The company will monitor natural gas supply/demand balances and schedule new production startups appropriately through the course of winter and the balance of 2022," Tourmaline said.

The company expects to produce on average 500,000-510,000 barrels of oil equivalent next year, up from 440,000-445,000 in 2021.

Other major Canadian gas producers increasing activity include Canadian Natural Resources Ltd and ARC Resources, industry analysts said. ARC declined to comment and CNRL did not respond to a request for comment.

However, a shortage of skilled crews to operate drilling rigs in Canada could limit how much gas output climbs, and some producers remain cautious that increased supply may rein in prices.

"How do we do more even if we wanted to do more? We're at a limit on the people that we have," said Darren Gee, Chief Executive of Peyto Exploration and Development Corp. ($1 = 1.2363 Canadian dollars) (Additional reporting by Rod Nickel in Winnipeg; Editing by David Gregorio)

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

EU NATGAS - https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas

US NATGAS - https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas

Monday October 25, 2021 - An hour after open, US Natgas is up more than 9%. to  5.76

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/locational-spreads-change-sets-the-context-for-2021-european-gas-market-792176

Locational Spreads Change Sets the Context for 2021 European Gas Market

By:Yakov Grabar

Published: Oct 25, 2021, 08:54 CDT•2min read

‘No Country for Old Men’, regarded as one of the greatest Coen brothers’ movies, contains a scene that might look ordinary on the surface but actually it is filled with deep meaning.

 

Towards the end of the film, Sheriff Ed Tom Bell, portrayed by Tommy Lee Jones, feels distracted by all the violence he has come across and visits another old lawman (Barry Corbin) to ask for advice. Sheriff’s friend finishes their conversation, saying: ‘You can’t stop what’s coming. It ain’t all waiting on you’.

Though seemingly a simple phrase, it perfectly explains that the world tends to change over time, which in turn requires everyone to adjust to the new environment. When it comes to European gas, it is the shift in locational spread patterns that, among other things, have set the context for 2021 market.

This year, it has become common to see TTF traded at a premium to other market areas. Take, for example, the front-month spread between VTP Austria and the Dutch hub, which has stood on average at minus €0.2/MWh between 1 January and 22 October 2021 as compared to last year’s €0.5/MWh. Of course, this is partly the result of special circumstances that has prevailed in the market over the course of 2021.

Among them are unstable LNG supplies to the Gate terminal and slow injections into the Europe’s largest Bergermeer storage facility, while Central Europe has at hand the Ukrainian UGSs filled with large amount of gas by non-resident trading companies during the last winter. However, even after all those factors cease to exist, prices on the Dutch hub should not return to previous levels, with the TTF premium over other hubs being key to drawing volumes away from neighbouring markets as the Groningen field is expected to stop production in mid-2022.

Meanwhile, Italy’s PSV and Hungary’s MGP products have now been assessed much lower than in previous years, when compared to the equivalent contracts in the market areas these two countries were importing large volumes from. Following the start-up of new supply routes, demand for gas flowing from NWE and Austria has significantly decreased among players within the Italian and Hungarian markets respectively.

With the TAP pipeline being put in service early in 2021, this year’s imports to Italy via the Passo Gries entry point were restricted to periods in which additional flows from alternative sources were unavailable or when domestic consumption soared. After the completion of Kireevo/Zaychar and Horgos/Kiskundorozsma 2 interconnection points, Serbia and Hungary one after another joined the TurkStream corridor, making trades on VTPA less appealing for local buyers.

From the above, one may realize that a new landscape of price spreads between European gas hubs is taking shape in 2021. Market has gone through another stage of development right before our eyes.

The opinions expressed in this blog are mine only and do not reflect the views of my employer.

 

 

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/la-nina-threatens-worsen-energy-220010325.html

Oct 24th

La Nina Threatens to Worsen Energy Crisis With Colder Winter

 

Sun, October 24, 2021, 5:00 PM·4 min read

 

 

1 / 2

La Nina Threatens to Worsen Energy Crisis With Colder Winter

(Bloomberg) -- A weather phenomenon that typically delivers harsher winters is on the way and expected to add to Asia’s energy crisis.

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The La Nina pattern, which forms when equatorial trade winds strengthen to bring colder, deep water up from the bottom of the sea, has emerged in the Pacific. That typically spells below-normal temperatures in the northern hemisphere and has prompted regional weather agencies to issue warnings about a frigid winter.

Read more: La Nina Arrives, Threatening to Stoke Droughts and Roil Markets

Several nations and particularly China, the top energy consumer, are grappling with surging fuel prices and for some, power shortages or curbs on supply to heavy industry. Coal and gas prices are already elevated and a bitter winter will add heating demand that’ll likely spur further gains.

“We are expecting temperatures to be colder than normal this winter across northeastern Asia,” said Renny Vandewege, a vice president of weather operations at data provider DTN. “Weather forecast data is a critical component of predicting how much energy load will be required.”

Here’s the outlook for some key nations:

China

Temperatures plunged early last week across most of eastern China, and are already colder than usual in some northern areas, according to the country’s National Climate Center. Provinces including Heilongjiang, Shaanxi and Shanxi began the winter heating season between four and 13 days earlier than in previous years. Local government-controlled systems -- typically powered by coal or gas -- are fired up to warm residents’ homes in many areas.Extreme weather conditions could happen more regularly as a result of global warming, according to Zhi Xiefei, atmospheric science professor at Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology. “Cold waves could lead to greater temperature drops, but unusual warm events could also appear,” Zhi said.

The climate center expects the country to enter La Nina conditions this month, the official Xinhua News Agency said on Saturday.

Japan

Japan will likely see lower than normal temperatures next month, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency, which had earlier forecast a 60% chance of a La Nina over the autumn-winter period. The nation, which has been relatively insulated from the energy crisis, is staying vigilant after last year’s deep freeze that saw wholesale power prices spike.

Utilities were caught without enough fuel as demand surged last winter, forcing them to buy costly spot liquefied natural gas shipments. The trade ministry has already been meeting with major power, gas and oil firms to prepare for the winter months, and LNG stockpiles held by Japan’s major electricity providers are currently about 24% above the four-year average.

South Korea

South Korea will see colder weather in the first half of winter, and is also likely to be impacted by the effects of La Nina, according to the country’s meteorological administration. The country saw its first snow of the season 15 days earlier than last year amid an unusually cold October.

The nation’s government is already taking steps to bolster fuel supply and mitigate the impact of higher prices. Fuel taxes and LNG import tariffs will be temporarily lowered, Vice Finance Minister Lee Eog-weon said Friday.

India

Temperatures in India are expected to fall to as low as 3 degrees Celsius (37 Fahrenheit) in some northern areas in January and February before recovering. Unlike in other nations, cooler weather typically leads to lower energy consumption as demand for air conditioning wanes.

Most importantly, the nation is anticipating a drier period after the end of the monsoon season. Key coal mining regions suffered flooding in recent months that triggered a squeeze on supply of the fuel used to produce about 70% of the nation’s electricity.

Aside from La Nina events, there are other factors that can impact the region’s winter weather, according to Todd Crawford, director of meteorology at Atmospheric G2. Climate change has led to a lack of sea ice in the Arctic’s Kara Sea, which may be contributing to high pressure ridging in that area. This leads to downstream colder conditions across northeast Asia, “like what happened last winter,” he said.

There are also indications the polar vortex – a girdle of winds that bottle up cold at the pole – could be weaker than normal at the start of winter, which would allow frigid air to spill south, Crawford said.

“Putting all that together, we think the best window for big cold in northeast Asia this winter is in the late November to mid-January window,” he said. “That is where we think the greatest risk lies.”

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

https://www.zerohedge.com/weather/temporarily-relief-mild-november-weather-could-alleviate-eu-gas-crisis

Temporary Relief? Mild November Weather Could Alleviate EU Gas Crisis  

by Tyler Durden

Saturday, Oct 23, 2021 - 07:35 AM

Even as Europe faces a devastatingly cold winter as natural gas inventories are well below seasonal averages and unelected bureaucrats still refuse to accept the reality that Putin's Nord Stream 2 pipeline will be the savior for the continent's energy crisis, there's a sign of relief as new weather models forecast mild temperatures for the next few weeks. 

According to Vontobel Asset Management AG, mild weather from now through the first half of November could prevent additional strain on natgas inventories on the continent, already below seasonal trends. This could allow inventories to build while the demand for gas subsides.

"The main driver that will decide if storage levels will be depleted by during or even before peak winter season, and if there will be further price spikes, is the weather," Michel Salden, head of commodities at Vontobel said....

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

On 10/24/2021 at 2:05 PM, Tom Nolan said:

Deleted UK Government Report Celebrates How Public Loves To "Conform"

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/deleted-uk-government-report-celebrates-how-public-loves-conform

https://summit.news/2021/10/22/deleted-government-report-celebrates-how-public-loves-to-conform/

A deleted government report exploring how to make the public alter its behavior to accept the new ‘green economy’ reveals how COVID-19 restrictions have created a population with a “deep set reverence” for authority and a “powerful tendency to conform.”

 

The report was inadvertently published by the British government before being hastily pulled down, but numerous journalists were able to retrieve its contents.

The document explored how to weaponize behavioral psychology to ‘nudge’ the public into supporting measures and adopting behavior without them explicitly knowing they’re being manipulated.

The investigation found that the same techniques the government used to force people into accepting lockdown could be used to make them change their lifestyles in the name of preventing climate change.

Under the heading “principles for successful behaviour,” the paper noted;

“Government statements, actions and laws powerfully shape perceptions of normative and acceptable behaviour. For instance, even with public criticism being high, many still perceived government approval as the yardstick for safe behaviour during COVID-19 ‘we’re allowed to do this now [so must be safe]…’. This reveals, for many, a deep set reverence for legitimate government authority, regardless of one’s personal political views.”

While PR stunts such as having officials vaccinated live on television worked to convince people of the narrative, elite hypocrisy (public officials violating lockdown rules) was found to cause significant damage to public trust.

“Perceived hypocrisy can do a lot to undermine efforts to build public engagement and support. This was observed during the COVID-19 pandemic when prominent authority figures broke guidelines, leading to measurable reductions in public compliance as well as shifting attitudes.”

“Green politics has similar deep-seated reputational issues with elite hypocrisy,” notes Breitbart.

“A common feature of climate change summits has been high-profile attendees arriving by private or government jet, a disconnect between word and deed that seems unlikely to vanish in the near term.”

The paper concluded that people can be rather easily “nudged” into changing their behavior in response to government announcements and “have a powerful tendency to conform.”

The investigation also found that even if enforced changes to lifestyle are not wanted by the public, most tend to fall in line with the new status quo rather quickly anyway.

The report was prepared by the Behavioural Insights Team (BIT), a quasi-government body that was part of the effort to use “totalitarian” and “unethical” methods of instilling fear into the population as a means of scaring them into complying with lockdown rules.

A related group, the Scientific Pandemic Insights Group on Behaviours team, warned at the start of the first lockdown that a “substantial number of people still do not feel sufficiently personally threatened [by Covid-19].”

“The perceived level of personal threat needs to be increased among those who are complacent, using hard-hitting emotional messaging,” the group added, leading to numerous lurid propaganda campaigns that exaggerated the threat of COVID to bully the public into total submission.

In summary, the public is largely unthinking, compliant and docile and can be made to go along with just about anything so long as they’re bombarded with the right propaganda.

Wonderful.

Ahh yes the Great British Sheeple!

The lazy and slow love to have critical thinking done for them

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

Natural Gas Surges as U.S. Forecasts Stoke Winter Supply Jitters

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/natural-gas-surges-u-forecasts-161649512.html

(Bloomberg) -- U.S. natural gas prices soared the most in more than a year, erasing much of a recent decline, as end-of-month trading boosted volatility and forecasts for chillier weather revived concerns about tight supplies.

Henry Hub gas for November delivery gained 11.7%, the biggest gain since September 2020, to $5.898 per million British thermal units. Prices are bouncing back from recent declines, though they’re still shy of 12-year settlement high reached earlier this month. Traders were closing out bearish positions before November options expire on Tuesday.

While mild October weather allowed producers to inject more gas into storage than usual, forecasts for a cooler early November in the Midwest and East are a reminder that supplies of the heating and power-generation fuel are still below normal. Meanwhile, the U.S. is expected to export every molecule it can to help ease shortages of gas in Europe and Asia.

“There is terrific concern about sufficiency of supply”, said John Kilduff, founding partner at Again Capital, adding that the market remains sensitive to any cold forecasts.

One sign of growing supply fears: The so-called widowmaker spread between March and April futures, essentially a bet on how tight inventories will be at the end of winter, widened to $1.468, the highest since Oct. 6.

Globally, natural gas prices have surged to records amid escalating tension about tight supplies as winter approaches in the Northern Hemisphere. While the U.S. is relatively insulated from the energy crisis engulfing China and Europe -- where gas prices are now five times higher than Henry Hub prices -- booming demand for the nation’s liquefied natural gas overseas is adding to concern about domestic inventories.

Flows to liquefied natural gas terminals are seen at 11.3 billion cubic feet on Monday, up by more than 10% since Friday and the highest since May, according to BloombergNEF. Estimated volumes at Freeport LNG in Texas have rebounded after the terminal, one of the U.S.’s largest, faced issues with a wax buildup in its pipelines last week.

Monday’s rally has pushed prices outside the top end of what Gary Cunningham, director of market research at Tradition Energy, sees as the fair-value range for the commodity.

“We really think this is sort of overdone on the market right now,” Cunningham said, adding that the gain is not fully supported by the weather forecasts. “We do see it driven more by speculation than anything else.”

Hedge funds had slashed wagers on higher gas prices to the lowest since June as of Oct. 19, according to data released Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and compiled by Bloomberg. Gas for November delivery rose above the moving average for the past 20 and 30 days, a technically bullish signal that typically triggers additional buying.

Shares of U.S. gas producers also jumped. EQT Corp. gained 4.9% as of 2:26 p.m., with Antero Resources Corp. up 4.3%.

 

 

 

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Gas-Prices/US-Residential-Natural-Gas-Bills-To-Jump-30-This-Winter.html

WATCH VIDEO

U.S. Residential Natural Gas Bills To Jump 30% This Winter

By Tsvetana Paraskova - Oct 25, 2021, 4:00 PM CDT

• Higher retail natural gas prices will be the primary driver for the expected increase in natural gas heating expenditures this winter
• U.S. households that primarily use natural gas for space heating will spend an average of $746 on heating between October and March

Join Our Community

A total of 48 percent of U.S. homes will pay 30 percent higher bills for heating this winter, as 48 percent is the share of U.S. households that use gas as the primary fuel for space heating, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Monday.

Higher retail natural gas prices will be the primary driver for the expected increase in natural gas heating expenditures this winter.

Retail prices have jumped because of the steady rise in the spot natural gas prices since last year’s winter, the EIA said. The U.S. benchmark price Henry Hub has more than doubled since the beginning of 2021, due to relatively flat U.S. dry natural gas production and surging liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports amid high demand and record LNG prices in Asia.

This winter, retail natural gas prices in the United States are expected to rise on average to $12.93 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf) from $10.17/Mcf last winter. This would be the highest price since the 2005–06 winter average, as per EIA data.

The largest increase in retail natural gas prices is set to occur in the Midwest, where prices would rise to $11.28/Mcf, up by 45 percent from last winter.

So, U.S. households that primarily use natural gas for space heating will spend an average of $746 on heating between October and March, which would be $172, or 30 percent, higher compared to last year, the EIA said.

The administration also projects higher energy bills for households using propane, heating oil, and electricity.

Compared with last winter’s heating costs, EIA expects U.S. households will spend 54 percent more for propane, 43 percent more for heating oil, 30 percent more for natural gas, and 6 percent more for electric heating. If winter temperatures are colder than expected, U.S. households will spend even more on heating bills.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

 

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

Tsvetana Paraskova

Tsvetana is a writer for Oilprice.com with over a decade of experience writing for news outlets such as iNVEZZ and SeeNews. 

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[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

https://oilprice.com/The-Environment/Global-Warming/What-To-Expect-From-The-COP26-Climate-Summit.html

What To Expect From The COP26 Climate Summit

By Irina Slav - Oct 25, 2021, 2:00 PM CDT

• The COP26 climate summit has been touted as one of the most important international events for the past few years.
  The summit will attempt to create a plan of action to tackle climate change and reduce global emissions. 
• This discrepancy between what the UN believes needs to be done to rein in climate change and what countries are prepared to do is the biggest challenge that COP26 attendees would need to tackle.

Join Our Community

The COP26 climate summit is set to begin next Sunday in Glasgow. The summit has been touted as one of the most important international events for the past few years—an event where world leaders will attempt to come up with a concerted effort to reduce emissions. But there are multiple factors working against the summit's success.

As many as 25,000 delegates are expected to attend the summit that will last for two weeks as world leaders try to agree on a range of issues covering what needs to be done to bring emissions under control and how we are going to pay for it. The principal aim of the meeting is to tailor a mechanism for implementing the goals of the Paris Agreement with a view to containing global temperature rises to an average of 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial times.

Climate change has been identified by a number of international agencies, multinational businesses, and environmental organizations as the biggest threat to humankind at the moment, so urgent action is needed. The point of COP26 is to define the steps of this action and how it will be taken. However, it may well fall short of expectations.

Just days before the summit begins, the BBC uncovered documents that showed some nations have lobbied for changes in the latest report of the International Panel on Climate Change that made some alarming conclusions about the state of the planet's climate as a result of human activity and called for urgent changes to our way of life to contain the adverse changes.

According to the report, which cited leaked submissions on the report from various nations, some of these insisted on the IPCC downplaying the urgency of climate action. Nations that made such remarks included Saudi Arabia, Japan, and Australia, the BBC said. 

One Australian official, for example, rejected the IPCC's call for the shutdown of all coal-fired power generation capacity globally. As the world's biggest coal exporter, Australia's position is quite understandable. India, one of the world's largest consumers of the fossil fuel, is also against the elimination of coal generation capacity, too, by the way. So is China, although it has not stated it explicitly but rather through action: last year alone, China started the construction of more coal-fired power plants than the rest of the world retired.

Related: What ADNOC’s IPO Successes Mean For Middle East Oil

China is a good example of why, for all the good intentions and strong ambition, COP26 may fail to deliver. The country's government has repeatedly said it is committed to a lower-emission future, even announcing a 2060 deadline to become a net-zero economy. Yet recently, Beijing has changed its tune amid the energy crunch that had it ordering utilities to do whatever it takes to secure energy for the winter.

Yesterday, the Chinese cabinet announced measures aimed at tacking emissions and achieving net-zero status by 2060 but added a significant stipulation: that the government "manage the relationship between pollution reduction and carbon reduction and energy security, industrial supply chain security, food security and normal life of the people," as quoted by Reuters.

In this context, it is probably significant that China's President, Xi Jinping, will not be attending the COP26 summit, as reported earlier this month. This may yet change, but the announcement certainly made a splash. Then Moscow said President Vladimir Putin won't be attending the Glasgow event, either. 

Another big polluter, India, has demands about the distribution of energy transition financing, arguing that the wealthy developed countries—themselves not insignificant polluters—must help poorer developing nations such as India on their way to net-zero.  The wealthy countries themselves are not so eager to fund the transition of other nations, which sets the scene for a challenging two weeks in Glasgow.

Related: Renewables And Roller Coasters: How To Recycle An Oil Well

Even the most passionate proponents of the energy transition seem to have tempered their expectations, according to a Times magazine report. The report cited U.S. climate envoy John Kerry as saying "there will be a gap" between the commitments attendees are expected to make at the summit and actual commitments necessary to make the 1.5-degree scenario happen.

Even British PM Boris Johnson who immortalized himself earlier this month by telling the UN General Assembly that "it's easy to be green" now says the talks will be "extremely tough", after last month estimating the chance of wealthy countries fulfilling their climate aid promises at "six in 10".

This discrepancy between what the UN believes needs to be done to rein in climate change and what countries are prepared to do is, by all means, the biggest challenge that COP26 attendees would need to tackle. Yet another problem has also emerged recently: not all countries will be represented at the summit because of the high costs. According to Time, critics of the event have noted that many developing countries and non-profits simply cannot afford the cost of attending the summit, which apparently involves building and manning pavilions like an expo.

That the Paris Agreement sets ambitious targets has been clear for a long time. Yet with every new report on climate change, these targets sound increasingly urgent and vital. Hitting them, however, will be far from easy as it would require a lot of dramatic adjustments to the global economy. It is because of the nature of these adjustments and the fact that most countries' national interests are at odds with these adjustments that COP26 may fail to live up to the great expectations placed on it.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com 

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

Irina Slav

Irina is a writer for Oilprice.com with over a decade of experience writing on the oil and gas industry.

Latest articles from Irina

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[Boat + 1,323]

Don’t worry, US frackers will grow and pump till the bubble pops. Then begins the hair pulling and teeth knashing.

It only takes a couple million barrels to much or not enough for financial markets to spin wildly out of control. This helps drive renewables that typically sell on long term contracts. Cheer while you can.

Edited October 25, 2021 by Boat

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Money-Managers-Are-Throwing-Their-Weight-Behind-The-Oil-Price-Rally.html

Money Managers Are Throwing Their Weight Behind The Oil Price Rally

By Irina Slav - Oct 26, 2021, 12:00 PM CDT

• Hedge funds increased their bullish positions on oil by 11 million barrels last week
• New bearish positions only came in at about 1 million barrels
• The colder the winter in the northern hemisphere, the higher all fossil fuel prices will go

Join Our Community

The prospect of Brent crude reaching $90 per barrel is becoming increasingly realistic, and West Texas Intermediate yesterday touched the highest since 2014. This is fueling a strong bullish sentiment on the oil market.

Hedge funds bought more oil and oil product futures than they sold over seven of the last eight weeks, Reuters' John Kemp reported in his weekly fund-buying column. The data Kemp cited shows that hedge funds, which are big buyers of oil futures, serving as a weathervane for market sentiment at any given point, bought the equivalent of 188 million barrels over the period.

What's perhaps even more telling is that hedge funds increased their bullish positions on oil by 11 million barrels, while new bearish positions only came in at about 1 million barrels, Kemp also said. This means the majority of market players of the fund variety, like investment banks, expect still higher prices.

"The global energy supply crunch continues to show its teeth, as oil prices extend their upward march this week, a result of traders pricing in the ongoing rise in fuel demand – which amid limited supply response is depleting global stockpiles," Reuters quoted Rystad Energy senior oil markets analyst Louise Dickson as saying in another report.

"We're in a really weather-sensitive situation here where we could see natural gas prices really, even, double from here if we get some really cold weather and we could see crude oil prices break through US$100,"  BMO Capital Markets oil and gas equity research director Randy Ollenberg told Bloomberg this week in an interview.

"There could be some pretty significant increases in pricing here if we do get some really cold weather early – so, in December," Ollenberg also said. "We're talking about cold weather in Europe and Asia, that's really where it's critical."

Goldman Sachs, meanwhile, said oil prices could exceed its end-of-year forecast of $90 per barrel of Brent crude. The bank expects crude oil demand to rebound to pre-pandemic levels of around 100 million bpd soon, as economic activity in Asia continues to rebound. What's more, demand could be additionally boosted by the switch from gas to oil at power plants, Goldman analysts said, estimating this boost at around 1 million bpd.

Interestingly enough, this is not what Saudi energy minister Abdulaziz bin Salman sees in the power generation sector. Earlier this week, he told Bloomberg in an interview that the switch from gas to oil is happening at negligible rates, which motivates continued discipline among OPEC+ members with the return of more oil barrels to markets.

This insistence on a disciplined approach helped to push oil prices higher this week as bin Salman clearly indicated that OPEC+ had no plans to respond to calls for bringing more output to the market to rein in prices.

"We don't take things for granted," the official said at an industry event. "We still have Covid, there are still lockdowns," and jet fuel supply remains constricted. "So, we're not yet out of the box and we're not out of the realm of Covid."

With OPEC+ keeping a lid on additional output—in some cases forced by circumstances—and demand seen continuing to increase, Goldman's forecast seems quite realistic, and funds will likely continue buying oil. However, the price rally would add to other inflationary pressures that will sooner or later begin to affect consumer spending.

Just how much sooner or later this would happen remains unclear. One thing that is clear, however, is that the colder the winter in the northern hemisphere, the higher all fossil fuel prices will go. If the winter happens to be milder than feared, then we might see a retreat in the prices of oil, gas, and coal pretty soon.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fossil-fuel-divestment-supported-investors-040110484.html

EU’s Biggest Pension Fund to Dump $17 Billion in Fossil Fuels

Bloomberg - Europe’s biggest pension fund, ABP of the Netherlands, has joined a growing number of investment managers blacklisting fossil fuels as the finance industry gives in to pressure from activists and customers alarmed at the prospect of a climate catastrophe caused by carbon emissions. ABP said Tuesday it will divest 15 billion euros ($17.4 billion) worth of fossil-fuel assets by early 2023. The fund said it doesn’t expect the decision to hurt long-term returns and added that the move will allow it to unveil a more ambitious CO2 reduction goal next year. The announcement underpins the speed with which the investment industry is turning its back on oil, gas and coal, with 1,500 asset managers overseeing a combined $39.2 trillion now committed to offloading such holdings, DivestInvest said in a separate release.The development marks a huge shift over the past seven years. Back in 2014, when DivestInvest first tallied such commitments, funds turning their backs on fossil fuels represented just $52 billion. So far in 2021, the $16 billion Ford Foundation, started by the son of Henry Ford and now ranked among the world’s largest private foundations, said it will cease to invest in fossil fuels. Harvard University’s $42 billion endowment made a similar pledge and Maine became the first U.S. state to order its public pension fund to sell off fossil-fuel holdings.

New York City’s pension funds have announced plans to divest about $4 billion worth of fossil fuel-related investments and Canada’s second-largest pension manager, Caisse de Depot et Placement du Quebec, has said it will sell billions of dollars worth of oil assets, including large equity stakes in Canada’s top crude producers, as part of a new strategy that aims to dramatically cut the emissions from its investments. Fidelity International unveiled plans Tuesday to halve the carbon footprint of its investment portfolio by 2030.

“The fossil-fuel divestment movement is growing at an accelerated clip, because the world has realized where the money flows determines our success in slowing climate change,” said Richard Brooks, climate finance director at environmental nonprofit Stand.earth. “More money simply needs to get out of financially risky coal, oil and gas companies, and switched over to companies driving climate solutions, including renewables.”

Dumping fossil fuels is a quick win for funds wishing to decarbonize portfolios, yet whether it also produces a positive outcome for the climate is fiercely debated. Simply selling fossil-fuel stocks doesn’t change the demand or use of fossil fuels, and in fact can lead to carbon-intensive companies being held predominantly in portfolios of investors that are less motivated to push for lower emissions.

Still, authors of the DivestInvest report said the movement can now “offer solid proof that divestment is a sound financial strategy” and that “fossil fuels are a bad bet financially.” Early adopters of divestment strategies are reporting positive financial results and more institutions “cite the financial reality that climate change will make fossil fuels obsolete and a renewable energy future inevitable,” according to the report.That chimes with the findings of a BlackRock Inc. report commissioned by New York City that said “no investors found significant negative performance from divestment, but rather have reported neutral to positive results.”

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Investors-With-392-Trillion-In-Assets-Pledge-To-Divest-From-Fossil-Fuels.html

Investors With $39.2 Trillion In Assets Pledge To Divest From Fossil Fuels

By Tsvetana Paraskova - Oct 26, 2021, 11:00 AM CDT

• As many as 1,485 institutional investors, representing a massive $39.2 trillion of assets under management, have so far committed to at least some form of divestment from fossil fuels
• Back in 2014, investors with just $52 billion assets under management had the same pledge to shift investments away from fossil fuels

Join Our Community

As many as 1,485 institutional investors, representing a massive $39.2 trillion of assets under management, have so far committed to at least some form of divestment from fossil fuels, DivestInvest, a global network of individuals and organizations, said in a new report on Tuesday.

Since the divestment movement started in the early 2010s, it “has grown to become a major global influence on energy policy,” DivestInvest said.

Back in 2014, investors with just $52 billion assets under management had the same pledge to shift investments away from fossil fuels.

In recent years, the growth rate of divestment pledges has accelerated, DivestInvest said, noting that the first three years of the campaign netted 181 public commitments, while the most recent three years have seen 485 new commitments.

“These numbers reflect only known, public commitments to divestment. More institutions, to say nothing of individual investors, are almost certainly divesting in numbers beyond this, as the fossil fuel sector’s dominance of the stock market has shrunk considerably,” said DivestInvest’s report.

Among the notable divestment pledges stands out the Rockefeller Foundation, set up by John D. Rockefeller in 1913. In December 2020, the Rockefeller Foundation decided to divest from fossil fuels and not make any new investment in the industry. Funds for the creation of the $5-billion foundation initially came from the oil money of Rockefeller and the company Standard Oil he founded at the end of the 19th century.

Also in December 2020, the $226-billion New York State Common Retirement Fund said it was undertaking a review of all energy companies it is invested in, to assess their readiness for the energy transition and dump those considered riskiest in climate-related investment.

“One of the most important victories for the movement has been the financial elite’s gradual acceptance of the movement’s core financial arguments. Fossil fuels are a bad bet financially,” the authors of DivestInvest’s report wrote.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/A-Cold-Winter-Could-Double-Natural-Gas-Prices-And-Send-Oil-To-100.html

A Cold Winter Could Double Natural Gas Prices And Send Oil To $100

By Irina Slav - Oct 26, 2021, 9:00 AM CDT

• BMO Capital Markets: Crude oil could hit $100 per barrel if the winter turns out cold
• natural gas prices could double from current levels

Join Our Community

Crude oil could hit $100 per barrel if the winter turns out cold, one analyst has warned, adding that natural gas prices could double from current levels.

BMO Capital Markets oil and gas research managing director Randy Ollenberg told Bloomberg that "We're in a really weather-sensitive situation here where we could see natural gas prices really, even, double from here if we get some really cold weather and we could see crude oil prices break through US$100."

"There could be some pretty significant increases in pricing here if we do get some really cold weather early – so, in December," Ollenberg said. "We're talking about cold weather in Europe and Asia, that's really where it's critical."

However, if the weather turns out to be mild during the winter, prices will correct during the first quarter of next year, the analyst also said.

Ollenberg is not alone in this bullish outlook. In a separate interview with Bloomberg, Ira Epstein from asset manager Linn and Associates said he expected West Texas Intermediate to hit $90 by the end of the year on strong demand for oil coupled with not enough new supply.

The sentiment was echoed by Goldman Sachs, too. The investment bank, which earlier this month revised up its price forecast for Brent to $90 per barrel by year-end, now says it could top $90 per barrel. The bank cited utilities' switch from gas to oil as a factor for this revision as it could potentially add 1 million bpd to global demand for oil.

"While not our base-case, such persistence would pose upside risk to our $90/bbl year-end Brent price forecast," Goldman analysts said, adding there was further space for oil to grow, too.

"We would need prices to rise to $110 /bbl to stifle demand enough to balance the market deficit we currently see in 1Q22 given our expectation that OPEC+ continues on the current path of +0.4 mb/d per month increases in quotas."

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Norway-Is-A-Big-Winner-In-Europes-Gas-Crisis.html

Norway Is A Big Winner In Europe’s Gas Crisis

By Tsvetana Paraskova - Oct 26, 2021, 12:30 PM CDT

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Colder-Weather-Forecasts-Jolt-Gas-Prices-In-Europe.html

Colder Weather Forecasts Jolt Gas Prices In Europe

By Tsvetana Paraskova - Oct 26, 2021, 11:30 AM CDT

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Norway-PM-End-Of-Oil-Production-Could-Jeopardize-Energy-Transition.html

Norway PM: End Of Oil Production Could Jeopardize Energy Transition

By Irina Slav - Oct 26, 2021, 10:30 AM CDT

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/global-oil-shortage-inevitable

A Global Oil Shortage Is Inevitable

by Tyler Durden

Wednesday, Oct 27, 2021 - 04:50 PM

Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,190]

On 10/26/2021 at 11:35 AM, Tom Nolan said:

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Investors-With-392-Trillion-In-Assets-Pledge-To-Divest-From-Fossil-Fuels.html

Investors With $39.2 Trillion In Assets Pledge To Divest From Fossil Fuels

By Tsvetana Paraskova - Oct 26, 2021, 11:00 AM CDT

• As many as 1,485 institutional investors, representing a massive $39.2 trillion of assets under management, have so far committed to at least some form of divestment from fossil fuels
• Back in 2014, investors with just $52 billion assets under management had the same pledge to shift investments away from fossil fuels

Join Our Community

As many as 1,485 institutional investors, representing a massive $39.2 trillion of assets under management, have so far committed to at least some form of divestment from fossil fuels, DivestInvest, a global network of individuals and organizations, said in a new report on Tuesday.

Since the divestment movement started in the early 2010s, it “has grown to become a major global influence on energy policy,” DivestInvest said.

Back in 2014, investors with just $52 billion assets under management had the same pledge to shift investments away from fossil fuels.

In recent years, the growth rate of divestment pledges has accelerated, DivestInvest said, noting that the first three years of the campaign netted 181 public commitments, while the most recent three years have seen 485 new commitments.

“These numbers reflect only known, public commitments to divestment. More institutions, to say nothing of individual investors, are almost certainly divesting in numbers beyond this, as the fossil fuel sector’s dominance of the stock market has shrunk considerably,” said DivestInvest’s report.

Among the notable divestment pledges stands out the Rockefeller Foundation, set up by John D. Rockefeller in 1913. In December 2020, the Rockefeller Foundation decided to divest from fossil fuels and not make any new investment in the industry. Funds for the creation of the $5-billion foundation initially came from the oil money of Rockefeller and the company Standard Oil he founded at the end of the 19th century.

Also in December 2020, the $226-billion New York State Common Retirement Fund said it was undertaking a review of all energy companies it is invested in, to assess their readiness for the energy transition and dump those considered riskiest in climate-related investment.

“One of the most important victories for the movement has been the financial elite’s gradual acceptance of the movement’s core financial arguments. Fossil fuels are a bad bet financially,” the authors of DivestInvest’s report wrote.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

Stupid is as stupid does...  Does mean better opportunities for every sane person to make lots of money.  Just desserts. 

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

Irina Slav

Irina is a writer for Oilprice.com with over a decade of experience writing on the oil and gas industry.

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• Norway PM: End Of Oil Production Could Jeopardize Energy Transition

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• A Cold Winter Could Double Natural Gas Prices And Send Oil To $100

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[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

Tsvetana Paraskova

Tsvetana is a writer for Oilprice.com with over a decade of experience writing for news outlets such as iNVEZZ and SeeNews. 

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• What Happens With Oil Prices If Cushing Inventories Fall To Zero?

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• Supply Chains Need $100 Trillion To Become Net-Zero By 2050

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• IEA: Global Recovery Spending On Clean Energy Rises By 20%

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• Oil Retreats On Rising U.S. Crude Stockpiles, Iranian Nuclear Talks

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• Saudi Arabia Targets Battery Metals Mining With “Huge” Investment

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