Europeans and Americans are beginning to see the results of depending on renewables.

[Breck 0]

This is all our own making. It's like withdrawing the military before getting all your citizens and SIV holders out of Afghanistan first. It's like building a reservoir and flooding the basin when the dam is 25% finished. We should not have been killing off O&G until green energy was in a position to ACTUALLY replace it, which if you understand, would be never. When you place all your chips on unreliable energy sources at the expense of reliable energy sources, this is what you get, and nothing is ever going to change that. And yes you can make it more reliable with huge battery banks to back it up and build inventory, but that will only cover small scale daily spikes, not week to month long fluctuations like what Europe has seen in the unexpected loss of wind energy over the last year. And of course the ability to generate unlimited battery supply when needed is another fallacy in this house of cards.

I've been in energy for 30+ years, and the inventories around the world of natural gas, propane, distillates and even now crude oil and coal is some of the scariest charts I've ever seen for this time of year, ever!

[KeyboardWarrior + 527]

17 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

The 80% bonus depreciation allowance applies to just about everything, it has nothing specific to do with wind. You might also want to note that unless you started your wind project in 2019 there is no PTC for you.

It's typically 50%. But you're right, PTC goes away after 2021. Utilities are comfortable with returns smaller than 8% so all is good for them. 

 

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,187]

On 9/27/2021 at 12:11 PM, ronwagn said:

Sebastian, many thanks for mentioning what you call archaea. I just call it biomass because it covers all the earth and is in all bodies of water. Think peat bogs which are lakes that filled with peat moss etc. I have never seen an estimat about the amount of methane Mother Earth releases into the atmosphere. I imagine it is far greater than what mankind does. If you are a in a lake, just watch the water and the bubbles coming up contain some methane % and other gases such as oxygen from plants that breathe carbon dioxide. 

https://www.mensjournal.com/adventure/frozen-methane-bubbles-create-artistic-images/

Fun fact: Most methane from decomposing material is eaten in place by other bioorganisms less than 30cm from the ground who then release CO2.  Of course open swamps are a bit of a different story. 

[Starschy + 211]

The 1970 told us to have an Energy Mix not prefere one or two technologies. This happened now in UK. They went from Atom to Wind and 40% of their Power is Gas produced. Missing redundany in Power and Gas lead to the actual Situation.

Therefore larger Power Stations are needed. Nuclear, Coal or Gas. The transition period is fare more longer as all Parties expected.

Large Outage will cost thousands of Jobs. As Companies move to reliable Countries. Switzerland even Russia and China, because the know Infrastructure. Ask Mercedes in Moscow.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

5 hours ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Fun fact: Most methane from decomposing material is eaten in place by other bioorganisms less than 30cm from the ground who then release CO2.  Of course open swamps are a bit of a different story. 

Methane rises quickly into the air though, so I would have to see your reference. There is a complicated cycle of plants being eaten, insects and herbivores eating the plants, oxidation, sun rays aging dead material etc. I really don't think that anyone can prove what % of gases rise from the biosphere. The wind moves any gases away from their origin quickly also. 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

2 hours ago, Starschy said:

The 1970 told us to have an Energy Mix not prefere one or two technologies. This happened now in UK. They went from Atom to Wind and 40% of their Power is Gas produced. Missing redundany in Power and Gas lead to the actual Situation.

Therefore larger Power Stations are needed. Nuclear, Coal or Gas. The transition period is fare more longer as all Parties expected.

Large Outage will cost thousands of Jobs. As Companies move to reliable Countries. Switzerland even Russia and China, because the know Infrastructure. Ask Mercedes in Moscow.

China doesn't even have enough coal for themselves and have even had to shut down whole industries through the coming winter. They boycotted Australian coal and are now suffering the consequences. The world is biting them back. Russia is holding up their natural gas to Europe for maximum pricing. We told them not to rely on the bear. 

[Ecocharger + 1,446]

On 9/22/2021 at 10:01 PM, Jay McKinsey said:

What a pile of visual vomit. Your infographic says nothing. 

This reply says nothing, Jay.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

8 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

This reply says nothing, Jay.

If you read on in the thread you will see that I debunked Sebastian's big claim. Otherwise it is hard to say something about nothing. Although my favorite part of the infographic was it making a big deal about capital cost without  mentioning fuel cost. But that is of course your grade of economics. It continues to be visual vomit that  says nothing but innuendo of lies.

Edited September 30, 2021 by Jay McKinsey

[Ecocharger + 1,446]

8 hours ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Fun fact: Most methane from decomposing material is eaten in place by other bioorganisms less than 30cm from the ground who then release CO2.  Of course open swamps are a bit of a different story. 

So most CO2 is naturally produced.

[Ecocharger + 1,446]

5 hours ago, Starschy said:

The 1970 told us to have an Energy Mix not prefere one or two technologies. This happened now in UK. They went from Atom to Wind and 40% of their Power is Gas produced. Missing redundany in Power and Gas lead to the actual Situation.

Therefore larger Power Stations are needed. Nuclear, Coal or Gas. The transition period is fare more longer as all Parties expected.

Large Outage will cost thousands of Jobs. As Companies move to reliable Countries. Switzerland even Russia and China, because the know Infrastructure. Ask Mercedes in Moscow.

The transition period started some decades ago, is running flat out now, and will continue to run decade by decade by decade for the foreseeable future. In other words, do not hold your breath on getting there.

[Ecocharger + 1,446]

2 hours ago, ronwagn said:

China doesn't even have enough coal for themselves and have even had to shut down whole industries through the coming winter. They boycotted Australian coal and are now suffering the consequences. The world is biting them back. Russia is holding up their natural gas to Europe for maximum pricing. We told them not to rely on the bear. 

That sounds like an energy crisis to me...thanks to all those muddle-heads who sold the politicos on Green.

[Ecocharger + 1,446]

9 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

If you read on in the thread you will see that I debunked Sebastian's big claim. Otherwise it is hard to say something about nothing. Although my favorite part of the infographic was it making a big deal about capital cost without  mentioning fuel cost. But that is of course your grade of economics. It continues to be visual vomit that  says nothing but innuendo of lies.

Yes, Jay, it is hard to say something about nothing, but you manage to surpass that level and say nothing about something. Congratulations.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

1 minute ago, Ecocharger said:

That sounds like an energy crisis to me...thanks to all those muddle-heads who sold the politicos on Green.

But you've been telling us for months now how  China had no green policy and was leading the world forward with coal use.

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,187]

4 hours ago, ronwagn said:

Methane rises quickly into the air though, so I would have to see your reference. There is a complicated cycle of plants being eaten, insects and herbivores eating the plants, oxidation, sun rays aging dead material etc. I really don't think that anyone can prove what % of gases rise from the biosphere. The wind moves any gases away from their origin quickly also. 

Ok, this stuff came out ~15 years ago and I only remember first source.  What kicked it off was: Forgotten Methane Source: Plants Themselves Produce Methane And Emit It Directly Into The Atmosphere -- ScienceDaily

What it essentially says is that LIVING plants give off 10X -->1000X more Methane than dead plants, and that no, rice paddies, and swamps are not the major source of methane here on earth(initial findings say otherwise, but more info since then and I can't find link).  Obviously at that rate, we should see VAST quantities of CH4 in the atmosphere... We don't. 

2 things, #1, the plants not only MAKE the methane in large quantities which no one had ever seen before, but the microbes on their leaves eat it almost as fast as it is produced.  Especially true of Grasslands and where my from memory ~12" from ground level as Grasslands are often thick bushy and about on average ~1 ft thick.  #2, yes, CH4 rises, but close to the ground inversion layers exist, and other than tops of trees, down at forest level, wind does not exist for the most part, so the Methane while it rises, does not rise as fast as one would think. 

Now, SINCE, most of the world has STOPPED burning wood to heat their homes, and cleared forest for their horses to eat, amount of greenery across Eurasia/N. America has increased by over 30% via NASA images... One would think, 30% more CH4 is also being released.  This is been offset by a large clearing of the Tropical Rainforest where the majority of the Biomass is located and also why there is more METHANE seen via satellite over the Tropics than higher/lower latitudes.  The debate currently is: HOW MUCH of the increasing methane in the upper atmosphere is due to the usage of oil being burned instead of forests being cleared and horses eating grass which has allowed the forest to regrow over vast swathes of land, compared to CH4 methane leaks.  What we do know is that the predictions for AGW in upper Atmosphere for increases in CH4 are woefully low*** EDIT*** Woefully HIGH🙄.  In short,majority never gets into upper atmosphere and breaks down before then.  What its ACTUAL rate of decomposition is either has received no funding, I have never read the papers(most likely), or the results were found to be against AGW so the results were dust binned ASAP.  Most likely the later.  You note why down below...

Since the Great Barrier Reef now has more or equal coral coverage recorded in its ENTIRE HISTORY... So much for the dying GBR.  Northern section is ~5% below historic high, Central is 7% above and Southern is 2% low... Do a simple average and bingo, equal to all time high....  https://www.aims.gov.au/reef-monitoring/gbr-condition-summary-2020-2021 

You would think they would be screaming and dancing in joy...  Nope, completely hushed... So much for "follow the science"... but we all already knew this regarding coral as the temps in question can fluctuate wildly and just means a slightly different algae has to grow after said bleaching event.  

Edited September 30, 2021 by footeab@yahoo.com

[Wombat1 + 33]

25 minutes ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Ok, this stuff came out ~15 years ago and I only remember first source.  What kicked it off was: Forgotten Methane Source: Plants Themselves Produce Methane And Emit It Directly Into The Atmosphere -- ScienceDaily

What it essentially says is that LIVING plants give off 10X -->1000X more Methane than dead plants, and that no, rice paddies, and swamps are not the major source of methane here on earth(initial findings say otherwise, but more info since then and I can't find link).  Obviously at that rate, we should see VAST quantities of CH4 in the atmosphere... We don't. 

2 things, #1, the plants not only MAKE the methane in large quantities which no one had ever seen before, but the microbes on their leaves eat it almost as fast as it is produced.  Especially true of Grasslands and where my from memory ~12" from ground level as Grasslands are often thick bushy and about on average ~1 ft thick.  #2, yes, CH4 rises, but close to the ground inversion layers exist, and other than tops of trees, down at forest level, wind does not exist for the most part, so the Methane while it rises, does not rise as fast as one would think. 

Now, SINCE, most of the world has STOPPED burning wood to heat their homes, and cleared forest for their horses to eat, amount of greenery across Eurasia/N. America has increased by over 30% via NASA images... One would think, 30% more CH4 is also being released.  This is been offset by a large clearing of the Tropical Rainforest where the majority of the Biomass is located and also why there is more METHANE seen via satellite over the Tropics than higher/lower latitudes.  The debate currently is: HOW MUCH of the increasing methane in the upper atmosphere is due to the usage of oil being burned instead of forests being cleared and horses eating grass which has allowed the forest to regrow over vast swathes of land, compared to CH4 methane leaks.  What we do know is that the predictions for AGW in upper Atmosphere for increases in CH4 are woefully low*** EDIT*** Woefully HIGH🙄.  In short,majority never gets into upper atmosphere and breaks down before then.  What its ACTUAL rate of decomposition is either has received no funding, I have never read the papers(most likely), or the results were found to be against AGW so the results were dust binned ASAP.  Most likely the later.  You note why down below...

Since the Great Barrier Reef now has more or equal coral coverage recorded in its ENTIRE HISTORY... So much for the dying GBR.  Northern section is ~5% below historic high, Central is 7% above and Southern is 2% low... Do a simple average and bingo, equal to all time high....  https://www.aims.gov.au/reef-monitoring/gbr-condition-summary-2020-2021 

You would think they would be screaming and dancing in joy...  Nope, completely hushed... So much for "follow the science"... but we all already knew this regarding coral as the temps in question can fluctuate wildly and just means a slightly different algae has to grow after said bleaching event.  

I see you still suffer from "foot in mouth" disease? No point in trying to correct you, as you even admit that you don't read anything, and even if you did, you could never comprehend any of it anyway. So, this link is not for you, it is for others that can comprehend it and see what a load of toenail fungus comes from your mouth:

Methane levels are increasing – and scientists aren’t sure why | World Economic Forum (weforum.org)

 

[nsdp + 449]

On 9/28/2021 at 5:55 AM, RichieRich216 said:

This is what happens when a bunch of ill formed WOKE ASSHOLES join a cause with out fact checking and extensively reading up and digging into the issues . 
 

Then you have your ( WOKE CORPORATIONS ) adding there .02 cent’s  and a silly ass movement is underway. 
 

So now if people and business around the globe have to confront this issue by Re- Firing up Coal Power Plants and Nuclear Power Plants must restart or pushback there closing, I say FUCK YOU AND YOURS for pushing that the sky is falling , the sad part is the people that will most really be his are the poorest ! 
 

Corporations have no business to get involved in such stupid situations, they are there to manufacture and make a return on investment. I have lived my 41 years as an owner of business and purchasing badly run business and turning them around or just to invest into the corporation that will give me the return I’m looking for.

i base my life on the easiest and most fundamental form of a Corporation, 

CORPORATIONS RUN ON ASSETS AND LIABILITY, I am hopeful your thinking this correctly which is,

,ASSETS KEEP YOU IN MY GOOD GRACES , LIABILITIES , WELL LIABILITIES GET REMOVED, BE IT A PERSON, SUPPLIERS OR BAD WORKING PRACTICES !

People need to WAKE THE FUCK UP AND SEE IT FOR ALL IT IS AS SIMPLY AS IT IS AND THEY SHOULD PRACTICE IT IN THEIR PERSONAL LIFE AS WELL …….

What do you do when your competitor sells for 1/2 your cost before you buy fuel? Are you even 1/10 as astute as Warren Buffett? He wrote off and sold the preferred bonds in Energy Futures Holding two years before EHF filed bankruptcy. He had an ace in the hole; default guarantees Berkshire held from Goldman Sachs and Black Rock who had taken Texas Utilites private 4 years before.   Berkshire does own a utility old Pacificorp  and they make moneyhttps://www.pacificpower.net/about/newsroom/news-releases/wind-transmission-ev2020-completion.html. TXU using your model went bankrupt. 

Warren Buffet rule "never invest in a business you do not understand"  Come back when you have done as well as Warren forty years ago in 1981.

Vickers Speck304032018.pdf Vickers Speck304032018.pdf

[Wombat1 + 33]

6 minutes ago, Wombat1 said:

I see you still suffer from "foot in mouth" disease? No point in trying to correct you, as you even admit that you don't read anything, and even if you did, you could never comprehend any of it anyway. So, this link is not for you, it is for others that can comprehend it and see what a load of toenail fungus comes from your mouth:

Methane levels are increasing – and scientists aren’t sure why | World Economic Forum (weforum.org)

 

A Global View of Methane (nasa.gov)

Regardless of the high volatility in methane concentrations of the last few decades, the longer term increase since industrialisation should be clear even to you, footface.

 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

15 minutes ago, Wombat1 said:

A Global View of Methane (nasa.gov)

Regardless of the high volatility in methane concentrations of the last few decades, the longer term increase since industrialisation should be clear even to you, footface.

 

I see the most methane over the coal burning areas and the peat bogs. https://www.nationalgeographic.org/media/peat-forgotten-fuel/

 

 

 

Peat bogs cover much of the land mass of the earth. Mankind cannot have much influence over them. They are so much larger than we are. A small fraction of the peat bogs could absorb every living human.

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/europe-bog-bodies-reveal-secrets-180962770/

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 9/29/2021 at 8:51 PM, Ecocharger said:

That sounds like an energy crisis to me...thanks to all those muddle-heads who sold the politicos on Green.

There have only been energy crises due to politics, wars, monopolies, etc. The world is full of fossil fuels, brilliant chemists, engineers, oilmen, coal miners, wind turbines, solar plants, dam builders, etc. When people do not support energy production there are energy crises. I started studying this during the G.W. Bush "energy crisis" when he recommended using corn plant refuse and ethanol etc. I only knew the oil business back then, but decided that natural gas was much more abundant, often wasted, cleaner, and less costly. It can also be made from most waste products thus helping get rid of refuse and sewage. 

Edited October 5, 2021 by ronwagn

[RichieRich216 + 454]

Warren Buffet was mentioned in this thread , even though he is one of the richest people, What people forget is in the 2008 world wide crisis he called just about every Senator , Congress people and Treasure all the way up to the White House because his exposure without the United States taking such drastic interventions with the Banking Industry would have been such a blow to his portfolio that he lobbied for it to save his ass!!!!

Though he has given away a large amount of his money, I can’t help but believe his guilty Conscience was a factor in very hard lobbying to all mention above people for the government takeover of U.S. banking institutions, He realistically saw the writing on the wall that his position especially in Insurance was in jeopardy and his response to FREE MARKET CORRECTION  went right down the toilet, The worst part of all this was the very people that started this, not ONE WENT TO JAIL, but they took the 700 + Billion and made themselves richer and Main Street was basically told to FUCK OFF.

We now have these very same people and banks that have a position that about a dozen banks control the majority of money besides the Fed and they now HAVE BECOME TO BIG TO FAIL! So the United States “FREE MARKET SYSTEM” as it was known before the 08 crisis have substantially increased influence in the U. S. Government. In the last few days Jamie has been all over to any news outlet claiming the world will end if the debt ceiling is not raised by middle of October, of course it will be raised but if so important the Congress as well as the Senate should pass a clean  CR and quit FUCKING ABOUT to add TRILLION to National Debt. Yes the National Debt is AT THIS POINT -V- the U.S. GDP stills way less then the 2nd largest economy and many other Countries, That said to show my age I can remember a time the Congress would never have used the word “BILLIONS” let alone “TRILLIONS”.

Does any of this effect me personally, well no with well over 40 years as a self employed individual I have been fortunate enough to create  Generational Wealth and I always strictly looked at business investments as a corporation meaning I have only ASSETS OR LIABILITIES and you keep your assets and you kill your liabilities with EXTREME prejudice and then transform your reputation through charitable work……

[Sebastian Meana + 278]

On 9/27/2021 at 1:27 AM, nsdp said:

Sebastion , the accounting principles that apply to utility projects are something that s foreign to you. Your estimate of costs  at Kursk for new nuclear construction look lit a list of materials only. They clearly omit AFUDC and intangible overheads that are capitalized not expensed in the current year. These drive the cost per kw over $35,000/kw name plate. "Georgia Power's share of the total project capital cost forecast is now 27 BILLION Dollars.  for 2500mw.  That is only a few percentage points of the cost of Hinkley Point.

Plant Vogtle expansion cost tops $27B as more delays unveiled https://www.wrdw.com/2021/07/29/plant-vogtle-expansion-cost-ps-27b-more-delays-unveiled/  Then you will have about $1.6 billion per year in fuel replacement costs and interest  payment of$ 2 billion annually.

You could buy a new wind farm every year for nuke plant operating expense only while not repaying the bond holders anything.

 

That is in the USA, where there 1,500,000 pages of regulation in state, country, and federal levels, and there's also the interesest rates which compounds itself

Russia is different, because they discovered that if you reduce the middleman in the middle a tube of 304SS is still a 304SS tube whathever it has the nuclear label on it, or it doesnt.

Just because the US and europe doesnt know how to build a nuclear reactor for the cheap anymore, doesnt mean other countries governing elites are so mentally disabled

 

Edited September 30, 2021 by Sebastian Meana

[Sebastian Meana + 278]

On 9/27/2021 at 2:09 AM, nsdp said:

•  

Tuesday at 01:43 AM

•  

 

Rosatom got a revenue of around 20U$D/MWh
South Texas Project NPP is around 29U$D/MWh
TVA has a revenue of 70U$D/MWh, and most traditional electric utilities are around 100U$D/MWh
Avangrid has a revenue of 540U$D/MWh
Orsted has a revenue of 390U$D/MWh
¿Where you think that money is coming from?, is either taxes or subsidies

Sebastian STNP has taken two haircuts in bankruptcy. First was the HL&P/RRI/NRG portion for 45% in the Chapter 11 plan. The second CPSEnergy bought  660mw25% for $400 million in Central and Southwest Bankruptcy. $29 was the ERCOT 2019 price. $20/mwh in was for ERCOT 2020.

Didnt like various other utilities declared bankrupcy during the cold snap? like when, electricity prices hit 10USD/KWh? the electricity wholesale price doesnt mean that much if the price if distorted through complicated tax schemes



Thats why inflation adjusted the price of electricity is pretty much the same in the last, idk, 50, 60 years?

[Ecocharger + 1,446]

12 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

But you've been telling us for months now how  China had no green policy and was leading the world forward with coal use.

China will tell us one thing and do another, they are currently ramping up coal production and oil drilling in a big way. Do you always buy the public pronouncements of governments?

Edited September 30, 2021 by Ecocharger

[Starschy + 211]

On 9/14/2021 at 11:13 PM, ronwagn said:

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Protests-Break-Out-in-Europe-As-Electricity-Prices-Soar.html Europe is having problems with energy supply due to depending on Russian natural gas, and coal of their own to meet much of their need. Russia is going to ask a hefty price to come up with the money to pay for their new pipeline Nordstream 2. 

 

There is no problem with Europe energy supply. UK does not count as Europe. There is a price hike at Rotterdam. But European companies have large contracts with Gazprom as example they run from 5 to 20 years. Pricing is at least 30to 50% below the actual Spot Price.

Gazprom is delivering around 200 Billion m3 this year. No serious Gas supplier is using Spot price for their long term Gas deliveries. UK infrastructure is a disgrace and can not be compared to Central Europe.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

6 minutes ago, Starschy said:

There is no problem with Europe energy supply. UK does not count as Europe. There is a price hike at Rotterdam. But European companies have large contracts with Gazprom as example they run from 5 to 20 years. Pricing is at least 30to 50% below the actual Spot Price.

Gazprom is delivering around 200 Billion m3 this year. No serious Gas supplier is using Spot price for their long term Gas deliveries. UK infrastructure is a disgrace and can not be compared to Central Europe.

Please explain how UK infrastructure is a mess, if you don't mind, or maybe a reference.