Europeans and Americans are beginning to see the results of depending on renewables.

[nrg6503 0]

To notsonice >The entire Gulf Of Mexico Produces less than 3% of US natural gas around 930 billion cubic feet versus 33.5 trillion cubic produced annually by the US. Hurricane IDA had an effect on oil not gas

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

3 hours ago, Tomasz said:

If you are interested I suggest reading this 2 open letters from 2020

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/08/05/open-letter-russia-policy-391434

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/09/25/russia-open-letters-rebuttal-421546

< horrible abuse of Latin alphabet >

The open letters are non-eventful, IMHO. Nothing is going to happen till US admits to charges against Russia that are obviously imaginary / fraudulent by now, like fixing their 2016 elections. Riding the high moral horse won't work anymore. The only rational point is the novel (for US) observation than replacing Putin with somebody more democratically elected ain't gonna change a thing. That's right, Putin is considered a moderate domestically.

Please remind us to switch you to Cyrillic when it is time for your next partition? Everything becomes half as long and actually understandable to a Russian speaker without a translation.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

1 hour ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

You have a typically limited roundeye view of Inter-Chinese relationships. Taiwan DOES NOT want to be free. The one thing the Chinese fascists (the KMT now running Taiwan) and the Commies running PRC have no disagreements about is that there is only one, indivisible China. The only issue is who runs it. Just calling Taiwan its own separate country could've been arranged long ago. But, the Republic of China claims to be the government-in-exile of the entire country, including the PRC-occupied aread. Ditto for the PRC, only in reverse.

South Korea is no longer dependent on US. In fact, they would very much prefer that you left. Only the Japanese cannot do without the American forces there, whether they like them or not.

There is no "South Vietnam" The Commie North won the war. Your relations with Vietnam are cordial these days, but you will not be able to have them as a trusty military ally, regardless how much they dislike China. Enemy of your enemy is not always your friend.

Russia has nothing to fear from China. The opposite is not true. America is already attacking Russia with everything its got, short of overt military action. From historical perspective, there never has been such a thing as a Chinese aggression. They are very insular / self-centered people. The few attacks that PRC did in the recent past were done for the benefit of their than-newfound American friends, to demonstrate that Commies, can, in fact, fight other Commies (as Kissinger had a hard time gaining traction with this concept domestically)

PPP-adjusted, is Russia's economy 5th or 6th in the world, competing with Germany. Don't look at the USD nominals, all that tells you is how undervalued the ruble is in relation to the buck. Which makes a lot of sense for a country running a major trade surplus with pretty much everybody else. Your "economic sanctions" have been quite helpful there, too. Thanks a bunch

Forest fires are natural. Away from a major body of water, there is no known way to extinguish them. All they can do is try to contain them by digging trenches and setting counter-fires. Other than this, Russia got some of the most effective firefighters out there. Even US buys our Beriev firefighting jets. Some of the most valuable timbers, like California redwood, can only grow after all the other trees have burned off. In effect, they dwell on forest fires. Most of Russian taiga is regular spruce, not particularly valuable.

Reminds me of the joke, where a young Rothschild says to elder Rothschild, "Dad, how come all the other children got normal countries and I got this ginormous thing that's got nothing interesting but spruce inside?"

-

Food for thought. 😊

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

1 minute ago, ronwagn said:

Food for thought. 😊

Forgot Indonesia. The Sukharto regime already genocided all the local Chinese once, with much Western help. Actually were they going after Commies, but they reckoned that be pretty much the same as Chinese and/or anybody left-wing, so they whacked all of those just to make sure. Upon which did it turn out that without the Chinese, is the economy completely broke. See, in the Far East, do the Chinese traditionally occupy the same niches that the Jews did in 20th century roles. So, your calls to "curb the Chinese influence" equate to about the same as "lets throw all the Jews into incinerator" Since everybody and their mom owes some money to some Chinese interests, you sure are going to find followers. The questions is, are you sure those are the followers you want?

If you want a 3rd take on specifically Chinese ethno-faschism, take a look at Singapore. Yes, they are Chinese Imperialists too. Like they say, twice may be a coincidence, but trice is a system

[ronwagn + 6,290]

13 minutes ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

Forgot Indonesia. The Sukharto regime already genocided all the local Chinese once, with much Western help. Actually were they going after Commies, but they reckoned that be pretty much the same as Chinese and/or anybody left-wing, so they whacked all of those just to make sure. Upon which did it turn out that without the Chinese, is the economy completely broke. See, in the Far East, do the Chinese traditionally occupy the same niches that the Jews did in 20th century roles. So, your calls to "curb the Chinese influence" equate to about the same as "lets throw all the Jews into incinerator" Since everybody and their mom owes some money to some Chinese interests, you sure are going to find followers. The questions is, are you sure those are the followers you want?

If you want a 3rd take on specifically Chinese ethno-faschism, take a look at Singapore. Yes, they are Chinese Imperialists too. Like they say, twice may be a coincidence, but trice is a system

China needs to collect a lot of debt from their Belt and Road programs. They have had some success in taking over their own works, but overall success is doubtful. Possibly making enemies? Of course we are the " Ugly Americans" still, I guess. 

Then there is this new info:

China’s Local Governments Have ‘Hidden’ Debt Estimated at $8 Trillion or Nearly Half of the Country’s GDP

By Joe Hoft
Published October 5, 2021 at 1:30pm
394 Comments

Edited October 6, 2021 by ronwagn
reference

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

49 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

China’s Local Governments Have ‘Hidden’ Debt Estimated at $8 Trillion or Nearly Half of the Country’s GDP

 

 

The Chinese had a great teacher at debt-financing excess

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

1 hour ago, ronwagn said:

Chinese hidden debt is relatively peanuts

Got just the right movie tip for you

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/55_Days_at_Peking

In which, am American officer leads a joint force of American Marines and Russian sailors on a mission to protect the Bejing's Embassy Quarter during the Boxer Rebellion. The Russians bring their ammo, but lose the guns, forcing them to go fetch the guns from the attacking Chinese, only to find out that Chinese guns are crap and don't work.

[NickW + 2,714]

On 9/14/2021 at 10:13 PM, ronwagn said:

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Protests-Break-Out-in-Europe-As-Electricity-Prices-Soar.html Europe is having problems with energy supply due to depending on Russian natural gas, and coal of their own to meet much of their need. Russia is going to ask a hefty price to come up with the money to pay for their new pipeline Nordstream 2. 

Many people are wondering how to cope with inflation and energy prices in America. Taxes are also going up in America and the corporate taxes always filter down to the average consumer. The left has many ideas on spending money, that we cannot afford, on building charging stations for EV's that will be built in the future, and will be sold with $7,500 rebates for those who might want them. EV's will require more electricity from whatever source and more power lines to deliver it. It will be the Greatest Show on Earth and have a HUGE price tag. 

On the contrary.

The massive uplift in gas prices, demonstrating the industries inability to flex to demand has highlighted the need to get away from gas import dependency. More nukes, renewables, energy efficiency, perhaps some more local exploration, and a bit more pragmatism around coal as a winter back up and to diversify energy sources is needed. 

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

10 hours ago, ronwagn said:

Please tell me specifically what you would do. I am in favor of the same thing Trump was. We need Fair Trade with our trading partners. If we cannot have that we should minimize trade with those who do not deal fairly with us and our other trade partners. That is exactly what I have said all along.  

China has alienated most of the world with its COVID strategy and its trade practices. It has created a warlike situation in the South Sea by claiming to own most of it. It has broken agreements over Hong Kong. It has misused all of its minorities and religious groups. It is threatening to invade Taiwan. 

Biden's weakness does not bode well for us defending them. He needs to set a firm stance on protecting them and making them strong. I believe that our military is in favor of that. Biden is suspect because of his families dealings with China. 

I do not think that making the Chinese people freeze all winter is a way to gain hearts and minds. It is the Chinese that are boycotting Australian coal. Not the reverse. 

It is very important to show love for the Chinese people and try to divide the Chinese Communist Party hardliners in attempt to diminish their power in China. The Military may not be too happy with how Xi has angered the rest of the world. Xi wants to be a new Mao and total Dictator. Things are not going well for him however IMHO.

Australia, Japan, South Korea, and India have taken a strong stance for Taiwan and we should also.  

Its not up to me to decide US foreign policy but you cannot on one hand advocate reducing trade and them jump in and ramp up coal supply when Australia are making a stand against the very foe you are saying the rest of the world should stand together on. Its pulling the rug from under Australia's feet and profiteering from their stance.

I agree the Chinese people shouldn't freeze but that is the CCP's decision to do so or they are forced to go back to Australia cap in hand and concede which would be a big win for those QUAD nations you speak of. It is not America's decision if the Chinese people freeze or not and the hearts and minds of the Chinese people perhaps would look at the CCP for what they really are!!! Sometimes harsh realities are needed to change a nations opinion.

[NickW + 2,714]

On 9/30/2021 at 6:52 PM, ronwagn said:

Please explain how UK infrastructure is a mess, if you don't mind, or maybe a reference.

In regard to the energy sector. Over reliance on gas CCGT and too little non gas baseload. 

The UK should have continued building an additional PWR every 2-3 years after the commissioning of Sizewell B. We would now have about 10-12GW of reliable PWR baseload plus some older geriatric AGR nuclear stations. 

Given where nuclear baseload has got to it would have been prudent to build a couple of coal super critical stations about a decade ago to underpin the grid and diversify supply of fuels - coal is also easy to store for seasonal use. 

On the plus side we have just commissioned another interconnector with Norway (which is also not in the EUSSR) the idea being we can access their hydro resources and in return they can buy up surplus wind energy. 

Although i disagree with their tactics, Insulate Britain are actually on the ball here. Probably the quickest and easiest way of getting UK gas consumption down is a mass insulation program targeting the most poorly insulated properties. 

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

1 hour ago, NickW said:

In regard to the energy sector. Over reliance on gas CCGT and too little non gas baseload. 

The UK should have continued building an additional PWR every 2-3 years after the commissioning of Sizewell B. We would now have about 10-12GW of reliable PWR baseload plus some older geriatric AGR nuclear stations. 

Given where nuclear baseload has got to it would have been prudent to build a couple of coal super critical stations about a decade ago to underpin the grid and diversify supply of fuels - coal is also easy to store for seasonal use. 

On the plus side we have just commissioned another interconnector with Norway (which is also not in the EUSSR) the idea being we can access their hydro resources and in return they can buy up surplus wind energy. 

Although i disagree with their tactics, Insulate Britain are actually on the ball here. Probably the quickest and easiest way of getting UK gas consumption down is a mass insulation program targeting the most poorly insulated properties. 

Hinkley C is under construction and I believe Sizewell C has been given the green light and Chinese funding has been removed from Sizewell (which has pissed the Chinese off) that being said all of this is too little too late IMO.

You are correct the UK's nuclear fleet are very old and many are set to close. My company does a lot in nuclear decommissioning and that market is very busy which tells its own story. I just wonder if these existing sites could be converted into Thorium reactors and use the current infrastructure??? I must admit I don't know much about thorium reactors and their viability, would be happy for others to educate me on this.

Too much reliance has been put into wind as the holy grail IMO and the energy supply mix is not as it should be.

Piss poor planning from government!

Hopefully Rolls Royce SMR's will be developed and help in the short to medium term.

Its good that we have new interconnectors to foreign power supplies, however this comes at a price!! As a country we need to become energy self sufficient and that is going to take a lot of money and time.

[JoMack + 549]

19 hours ago, turbguy said:

Put the storage at the plant site.

The wind farms are in West Texas and connected to high voltage transmission lines running across the state of Texas. A very large state I might add, and, you know, the wind don't blow, the wind don't show - in other words, generate nothing, stores nothing, if and unless batteries (that I believe you are suggesting?) would cover large swaths of West Texas to store the energy near some plant sites, would solve the problem.  But in the case of Texas, and I believe in many states, it's not happening.  So when Mother Nature decides to have a full on lull on the wind side and she decides to roll in on the clouds on the solar side, renewables fail, which is another word for -- blackouts.  In Texas ERCOT the Godzilla that buys electricity and passes it around to the generation companies at its discretion, has been developing its usage in the state by using subsidies for wind and solar instead of using brains for reliability.  As subsidies grow and investment in the reliable, consistent energy sector withers, here in Texas and soon coming to a town near you, get your wood, candles and generators primed, cause what happened in Texas, was a just a warning before the real catastrophes begin to arrive.

[NickW + 2,714]

1 hour ago, Rob Plant said:

Hinkley C is under construction and I believe Sizewell C has been given the green light and Chinese funding has been removed from Sizewell (which has pissed the Chinese off) that being said all of this is too little too late IMO.

You are correct the UK's nuclear fleet are very old and many are set to close. My company does a lot in nuclear decommissioning and that market is very busy which tells its own story. I just wonder if these existing sites could be converted into Thorium reactors and use the current infrastructure??? I must admit I don't know much about thorium reactors and their viability, would be happy for others to educate me on this.

Too much reliance has been put into wind as the holy grail IMO and the energy supply mix is not as it should be.

Piss poor planning from government!

Hopefully Rolls Royce SMR's will be developed and help in the short to medium term.

Its good that we have new interconnectors to foreign power supplies, however this comes at a price!! As a country we need to become energy self sufficient and that is going to take a lot of money and time.

I like wind ( i have a small yacht) but it has its limitations and the Governments aim of 40GW is complete overload unless you have the storage capacity and unfettered access to offload onto Europes grid. 

The connection with Norway is good as it links in with their huge Blasjo pump storage complex but we would need more than that 1400W connection to soak up 40GW if that is produced outside of peak demand hours. 

Total interconnections now are:

France 3GW

Belgium 1GW

Netherlands 1GW

Ireland 1GW

Norway 1.4GW

Denmark (2022) 1.4GW

 

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

39 minutes ago, NickW said:

I like wind ( i have a small yacht) but it has its limitations and the Governments aim of 40GW is complete overload unless you have the storage capacity and unfettered access to offload onto Europes grid. 

The connection with Norway is good as it links in with their huge Blasjo pump storage complex but we would need more than that 1400W connection to soak up 40GW if that is produced outside of peak demand hours. 

Total interconnections now are:

France 3GW

Belgium 1GW

Netherlands 1GW

Ireland 1GW

Norway 1.4GW

Denmark (2022) 1.4GW

 

Maybe the new connection to Norway will work both ways. When the wind is strong in Dogger bank we will sell them cheaper electricity and when there is no wind we will have their excess pumped storage

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,190]

20 hours ago, Tomasz said:

Generally, let's start with the fact that no normal sane country buys spot gas according to the stock exchange quotes because with today's market full of fucked up speculators, we simply ask for big trouble at our own request. 

In Europe, except from Poland and Ukraine, nobody has been so fucked up so far.

As far as I know Gazprom announces that the price was to be 210 in January, then  in June about 270 and now supposedly 300 for the whole year.

I admit it becomes rather quite  expensive, but its really still not 1200.

 

Two let us distinguish objectively anti-Russian activities from mad ones.

IMHO it was very rational for us  to go against Russia with the powerful Napoleon, when were under partitions and we had nothing to loose. One may even seriously wonder whether it would  be more rational, after all, to invade the USSR with Hitler like Hungary or Romania than our policy in 1939. I dont agree with such point of view but you can think about it.

But I would like to point out right away that although I am not really superstitious, but what should I think if it has been now scientifically proven that winter 1812/1813 and 1941/1942 were simply the coldest winters in Russia in the 19th century and in the 20th century, respectively.

I read about such a thick brick from 1500 pages monography  about the war of 1812.

Apart from the anomaly in July which made it impossible to crash the Russian army in Belarus and win the war in one month so it was probably tuning point. In general, it seems that Napoleon would have defeated the Russian army with the same maneuver as, for example, the Prussian army in 1806. But there have been 3 decisive days in Belarus. From the historical descriptions of the sunny weather, there were 3 days with a temperatures of about 5 degrees during the day in the middle of summer and torrential weather. Part of the Napoleonic army could not do this classic maneuver too much because their horses simply  refused to cooperate in such cold weather and a lot of these horses from France Spain and Italy jus died in great numbers, which made the life of the Napoleonic army difficult. Three days later the weather returned to summer normal but the armies of Bagration and de Tolly left the critical region and Napoleon's classic maneuver backfired.

On November 5 1812 , normally rather no harsh winter yet. Lithuania around Vilnius, not some kind of Siberia there.

So on that day, a Napoleonic young officer found the temperature for the remnants of Napoleonic troops around minus 65 degrees Celsius early in the morning. I would like to mention near Vilnius and on November 5.

Field Marshal Montgomery did the trick and give some advice for brittish parliament in 1945 or 1946 - First of all, don't march east and I would stick to it.

When it comes to war, there are no good options.  Choose:

1. Bad
2. Worse

Poland is between giants and has never had GOOD options.  The ONLY time Poland had any "good options" was when they Conquered everything and ruled the area for several hundred years. 

[NickW + 2,714]

5 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

Maybe the new connection to Norway will work both ways. When the wind is strong in Dogger bank we will sell them cheaper electricity and when there is no wind we will have their excess pumped storage

Thats the idea but for now its all one way as they test the system at progressively higher loads. . They will gradually lift the power to 1400MW over 3 months. Good timing really. 

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,190]

2 minutes ago, NickW said:

Thats the idea but for now its all one way as they test the system at progressively higher loads. . They will gradually lift the power to 1400MW over 3 months. Good timing really. 

When the UK/EU start funding the building of gargantuan dams on top of mountains in Norway/Alps for pumped hydro storage, only then will we know they are getting serious about building interconnects, and wind  turbines.  Until then, this is nothing but semantics as the Utopians dream of a magic battery which does not exist. 

[NickW + 2,714]

1 minute ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

When the UK/EU start funding the building of gargantuan dams on top of mountains in Norway/Alps for pumped hydro storage, only then will we know they are getting serious about building interconnects, and wind  turbines.  Until then, this is nothing but semantics as the Utopians dream of a magic battery which does not exist. 

Fun fact update:

The interconnector was a UK - Norway venture (both countries outside the EUSSR)

The interconnector directly links the UK with Norways Blasjo Hydro complex which is 2GW, 700MW of which is pump storage

To the south of that interconnector will be several GW of offshore wind that is being built over the next 5 years on top of whats already there. 

The intention is that the UK sells surplus wind to the Norwegians and in return we access there Hdro. Norway gets the premium rates of course but this works well for both parties. 

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,190]

26 minutes ago, NickW said:

Fun fact update:

The interconnector was a UK - Norway venture (both countries outside the EUSSR)

The interconnector directly links the UK with Norways Blasjo Hydro complex which is 2GW, 700MW of which is pump storage

To the south of that interconnector will be several GW of offshore wind that is being built over the next 5 years on top of whats already there. 

The intention is that the UK sells surplus wind to the Norwegians and in return we access there Hdro. Norway gets the premium rates of course but this works well for both parties. 

Let the world know when they put 40-->100GW interconnect + pumped hydro storage dam capacity good for ~2wks -->4wks in writing and make it a plan.  Until then we are talking semantics. 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

11 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

Its not up to me to decide US foreign policy but you cannot on one hand advocate reducing trade and them jump in and ramp up coal supply when Australia are making a stand against the very foe you are saying the rest of the world should stand together on. Its pulling the rug from under Australia's feet and profiteering from their stance.

I agree the Chinese people shouldn't freeze but that is the CCP's decision to do so or they are forced to go back to Australia cap in hand and concede which would be a big win for those QUAD nations you speak of. It is not America's decision if the Chinese people freeze or not and the hearts and minds of the Chinese people perhaps would look at the CCP for what they really are!!! Sometimes harsh realities are needed to change a nations opinion.

The Chinese actually just did CAVE to the Aussies! China agreed to buy Australian coal. Apparently XI is not ready to take on the opposing nations that surround it. At least not right now. Taiwan is still threatened and its friends are building their miltiary strength for common defense. 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

1 hour ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

When the UK/EU start funding the building of gargantuan dams on top of mountains in Norway/Alps for pumped hydro storage, only then will we know they are getting serious about building interconnects, and wind  turbines.  Until then, this is nothing but semantics as the Utopians dream of a magic battery which does not exist. 

I think batteries will eventually work out. Does anyone know what the energy LOSS is on pumped hydro? I would guess that it is more than high tech batteries. 

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,190]

2 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

I think batteries will eventually work out. Does anyone know what the energy LOSS is on pumped hydro? I would guess that it is more than high tech batteries. 

Depends on head pressure.  The higher the head pressure, the higher the efficiency for PH. 

Batteries have to go from HV AC(generally) to convert to Medium/LOW Voltage DC to be stored and then back CONVERTED to HV AC.  Then lose power over time just sitting waiting to be used. 

The best efficiencies of PH and batteries are about the same for round trip.  Technically if someone manages to make a DC Wind turbine work, then one could dump that directly to DC.  Obviously Solar already works at DC so Solar Battery storage is an easier proposition and also is a better KNOWN source of consistent power.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

11 hours ago, NickW said:

On the contrary.

The massive uplift in gas prices, demonstrating the industries inability to flex to demand has highlighted the need to get away from gas import dependency. More nukes, renewables, energy efficiency, perhaps some more local exploration, and a bit more pragmatism around coal as a winter back up and to diversify energy sources is needed. 

Europe doesn't have ten years to try to build any new nuclear plants. The last French one was a disaster as I have already explained. The cost overruns were incredible as the United States has learned also. Natural gas is superabundant all over the world. It is the best way to go. Coal is the dirtiest with the most real pollution. Natural gas is flared throughout Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. it could easily be directed to Europe. 

Europe has failed miserably by not developing their own natural gas and not diversifying their suppliers. They can now depend on dirty coal, the Russian Bear, LNG, and wind turbines etc. 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

17 minutes ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Depends on head pressure.  The higher the head pressure, the higher the efficiency for PH. 

Batteries have to go from HV AC(generally) to convert to Medium/LOW Voltage DC to be stored and then back CONVERTED to HV AC.  Then lose power over time just sitting waiting to be used. 

The best efficiencies of PH and batteries are about the same for round trip.  Technically if someone manages to make a DC Wind turbine work, then one could dump that directly to DC.  Obviously Solar already works at DC so Solar Battery storage is an easier proposition and also is a better KNOWN source of consistent power.

Thanks for a great answer. The question has been in the back of my brain for awhile. 

 

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

24 minutes ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Depends on head pressure.  The higher the head pressure, the higher the efficiency for PH. 

Batteries have to go from HV AC(generally) to convert to Medium/LOW Voltage DC to be stored and then back CONVERTED to HV AC.  Then lose power over time just sitting waiting to be used. 

The best efficiencies of PH and batteries are about the same for round trip.  Technically if someone manages to make a DC Wind turbine work, then one could dump that directly to DC.  Obviously Solar already works at DC so Solar Battery storage is an easier proposition and also is a better KNOWN source of consistent power.

Most of the wind turbines are actually DC already, or at least wind turbine parks are.