Is China Rising or Falling? Has it Enraged the World and Lost its Way? How is their Economy Doing?

[Boat + 1,323]

On a personal selfish note I hope China gets its shyt together. I love my TCL TV. I blame few of Chinas problems on the people themselves. Just like most political systems the politicians don’t serve their people well including the US. Seems stirring the turmoil is more important to staying in power is more important.

[surrept33 + 609]

On 10/13/2021 at 3:26 PM, Chuko said:

That's an interesting viewpoint. From where I'm sitting it looks like USA has been losing in economic and technological competition and so decided to overturn the table by starting an information war and trying to build a coalition for a war against China.

They sent Kamala Harris to Vietnam on an "America is back" visit and to talk near a memorial to the downing of an American war plane about the heroism of McCain. After finally meeting a Vietnamese official she goes on to slam China in a way that forced Vietnam foreign ministry to call China and explain that her words have nothing to do with the Vietnamese official position (Diplo talk for calling Harris a crazy person). After extremely vague and noncommittal end to her visit Vietnam and China organise a high level meeting to tell the world that they seek peace and trade with each other, commit to not plot with any third party against each other and talk about values the two communist countries share. Vietnam has definitely been pissed off, but I don't think it was the Chinese doing.

Similar story happened with India. US convinced India to sign the Quad statement. When agreeing to sign it India insisted on watering down all passages that could be seen as criticism of China and on adding lines about ensuring that the region remains inclusive and open. Having signed the statement India analysed who helped farmers protests against Modi's government, what happened to American allies in Afghanistan and how France was treated by the AUKUS deal. Next thing you know Modi is visiting SCO and BRICS meetings and making deals with Russia on increases in buying military and nuclear energy equipment as well as on joint military exercises.

Really only Australia, Taiwan, Japan and UK are truly supporting USA in their antagonism to China. Even New Zealand, Canada and S.Korea despite their dependence on US try to avoid taking a clear position. With the last two administrations being as they are, it'd be a miracle if other countries wanted to join American cause.

It is only because the Chinese government is paranoid and very sensitive about "anti-China" attacks.

Domestically, within both Vietnam and India, China is both not well loved because of a lot of historic and current issues, but China is also an important trading partner so it is a means to an end. Money talks.

 

[notsonice + 1,255]

this is worth the read , especially noting the drop in property sales by Chinas 100 largest developers  36% Y over Year

iron ore has already been creamed. My bet is Steel demand in China will take a hard hit and China will stop importing steel and start exporting it en masse (see the graph below it is already happening (world wide glut in the making?)

 

My bet is that A glut in cement around the world is soon to follow , sailors take warning, if China starts exporting cement good luck

Mike “Mish” Shedlock's
Sitka Pacific Capital Management,Llc  Follow

 

A $5 trillion property bust in China has huge implications for commodities

ANALYSIS | 10/12/2021 3:02:08 AM GMT

• Developers are defaulting, Beijing is imposing borrowing curbs and buyers are balking at high prices. The global implications look ominous.

  Please consider Beyond Evergrande, China’s Property Market Faces a $5 Trillion Reckoning.

  As China enters what many economists say is the final stage of one of the largest real-estate booms in history, it is confronting a staggering bill: More than $5 trillion in debt that developers took on when times were good, according to economists at Nomura Holdings Inc.

  That debt is nearly double what it was at the end of 2016 and is more than the entire economic output of Japan, the world’s third-largest economy, last year.

  Asia’s junk-bond markets suffered a wave of selling last week. On Friday, bonds from 24 of the 59 Chinese development companies in an ICE BofA index of Asian corporate dollar bonds were trading at yields of above 20%, levels that indicate high risk of default.

•  

  Total sales among China’s 100 largest developers were down by 36% in September from a year earlier, according to data from CRIC, a research unit of property services firm e-House (China) Enterprise Holdings Ltd. It showed that the 10 biggest developers, including China Evergrande, Country Garden Holdings Co. and China Vanke Co. , saw sales down 44% from a year ago.

  “There is no return to the previous growth model for China’s real-estate market,” said Houze Song, a research fellow at the Paulson Institute, a Chicago think tank focused on U.S.-China relations. He said China is likely to keep in place a set of limits on corporate borrowing it imposed last year, known as the “three red lines,” which helped trigger the recent distress at some developers, though he said China might ease some other curbs.

  Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts recently estimated Evergrande had the equivalent of $156 billion of off-balance-sheet debt and contingent liabilities, including mortgage guarantees to help home buyers get loans.

  What About Commodities? Australia?

  Think of the implications a property bust of this magnitude will have on steel, copper, concrete, and Chinese GDP targets.

  China had largely been dependent on Australia for raw commodities,

  That tidal wave of Chinese Debt is About to Sink Australia’s Economic Recovery.

  Australia’s economic growth continued year after year, with no sign of a recession, and money sloshed around all sectors of the economy until the pandemic hit and almost everything slowed to a crawl. I say almost everything because iron kept being dug up at a rapid pace, along with copper ore and coal, to meet strong demand from the Chinese property sector and railway expansion, which also drove a strong upward trend in prices. In 2020, iron ore alone made up 41 per cent of all exports from Australia by value, at about A$149 billion.

  Unfortunately, 2021 has proved to be the year that the merry-go-round stopped and Australia’s mining industry, and indeed its economy, reached a turning point. The era in which China could be trusted to buy an abundance of Australian dirt, and pay good money for it too, has come to an end – and probably for good. Three things have happened recently that dashed hopes that mining would drive the economic recovery.

  China’s demand for iron, coal and copper ore and concentrates are now in a very sharp decline as a pending tidal wave of debt threatens to destroy three property developers – Evergrande, Sinic and Fantasia – and signal the end of China’s building boom. China’s infamous ghost cities are now starting to be demolished, releasing large quantities of scrap iron and copper. The Financial Times estimates there is an abundance of idle property that could house 90 million people, though most likely it never will. This inventory of steel and copper will be recycled, as recycling is cheaper and more energy efficient than smelting from ores. This reduces the need for imported Australian coal.

   China is in no great rush to buy iron ore. Or copper, aluminium, or lead. And if it was, it would rather not pay hard currency for it. Restocking of new steel supplies is not likely to happen this year, and I have no faith in analyst predictions that iron ore prices will jump again by the end of the year. By the time the scrap is used up, abundant supplies will be available from Central and West Africa.

  In 2012, China imported about 70 per cent of all the world’s iron ore transported by sea, or about 680 million metric tons, in addition to its domestic production of about 280 million metric tons. About 60 per cent of the imported ore came from Australia. These days, the estimated total output from fully developed mines in West Africa’s Guinea and the Central African republics of Congo and Cameroon is between 400 million and 600 million tons annually – or almost the entire amount China was importing by sea in 2012.

  Given that Cameroon and Congo see 70 percent of their financing requirements covered by the Chinese, new alliances were forged, and the Australians saw their licences revoked and stripped from them. It’s now all over, except for the shouting. Large lawsuits are incoming, seeking damages through international arbitration against the African governments for several Australian and British interests totalling some US$40 billion.

  This suggests that the Australian government is going to have to think long and hard about what it can do domestically to replace the significant revenue streams that are disappearing as exports falter. 

   

[surrept33 + 609]

On 10/7/2021 at 8:49 PM, ronwagn said:

You have to read Associated Press, the L.A. Times etc to find out what most people are exposed to. I do know, by now, what to expect them to say and could write it for them. They all copy the A.P. line and they are the ones that tell them what words or terms are acceptable. For example not illegal alien, or alien, just immigrant, or refugee etc. Please see Subversion of Language https://knox.villagesoup.com/2015/09/17/subverting-the-language-1410925/#:~:text=2%3A to pervert or corrupt,the word "liberal" itself.

Subverting language? Yeah, old news:

https://www.businessinsider.com/death-tax-or-estate-tax-2017-10

[Strangelovesurfing + 737]

3 hours ago, notsonice said:

this is worth the read , especially noting the drop in property sales by Chinas 100 largest developers  36% Y over Year

iron ore has already been creamed. My bet is Steel demand in China will take a hard hit and China will stop importing steel and start exporting it en masse (see the graph below it is already happening (world wide glut in the making?)

The real estate issues in China are far bigger than this. The quality of the buildings, Evergrande included, is so bad, they start falling apart in a few years. Tier 3 cities have ~700 sf units selling for ~$1.2 million USD with a per capita income of ~$15K USD. A Tier 3 equivalent city in the US would be Spokane WA or Sacramento.

If you made $15K per year would you do everything you can to buy a $1.2 mil. soon to be rotting apartment in Spokane? It's pure madness.

I really like watching these guys. These two lived in China for years, they ride around on bikes taking videos all over and explain what's really going on. Their analysis is more spot on than any 'expert' I hear from.

Ghost city ride - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UPwtUTrwKRI

Evergrande building quality and issues with Chinese real estate - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lKbLB_T-IjY

Drug use in China, wait till you see them translate the graffiti on walls - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vbno8uHLxok

Edited October 15, 2021 by Strangelovesurfing

[Strangelovesurfing + 737]

2 hours ago, notsonice said:

This suggests that the Australian government is going to have to think long and hard about what it can do domestically to replace the significant revenue streams that are disappearing as exports falter. 

Australia is doing just fine, everyone already had a high standard of living before the China trade. They still will without it.

Edited October 15, 2021 by Strangelovesurfing

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 10/11/2021 at 3:57 AM, Andrew Neopalimy said:

«China marches on towards Fourth Industrial Revolution»

Pundit predictions of China's demise are the latest self-consoling illusions of a lazy elite who can't see the AI writing on the wall

By DAVID P. GOLDMAN

- China is serious, focused and disciplined in its campaign to lead the Fourth Industrial Revolution. The US at best gives lip service to the concept, and at worst ignores the problem, the better to focus on “diversity” and “equity.”

https://menafn.com/1102902778/Green-bubbles-threaten-to-pop-stock-markets 

 

Some truth in that since Biden is sold out to China, but the military and deep state are not. 

Other countries and corporations worldwide are standing up to China. Covid has woken many people up. 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 10/15/2021 at 2:25 PM, Strangelovesurfing said:

Australia is doing just fine, everyone already had a high standard of living before the China trade. They still will without it.

China has resumed coal imports from Australia out of necessity.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

https://www.theepochtimes.com/europes-hardening-viewpoint-toward-china_4051863.html

Europe is stepping up their resistance to China. 

[Boat + 1,323]

It seems like there are several countries that don’t like China threats and many global corporations don’t like the risk China represents. Why it’s so difficult to cooperate and present common goals with behavior timelines is baffling. The key is to make it public so the world knows what is allowed and what will cost trade opportunities for China. Even an alpha dog needs a pack when confronting the dragon.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

This is a video but is well worth your time IMHO.

As the crisis at Evergrande continues, 3 more real estate developers have defaulted on their debt obligations in China. But, that is just the tip of the iceberg. Local governments in China could be hiding a $4 trillion "debt bomb". Palki Sharma tells you more.

https://www.wionews.com/videos/gravitas-chinas-hidden-4-trillion-debt-bomb-422152

 

Edited October 20, 2021 by ronwagn
add

[surrept33 + 609]

https://www.ft.com/content/ca7c2567-2c64-436d-b123-dfa7d1dfe340

You know things are bad when a company resorts to fire sales but even rock bottom prices do not attract buyers. Evergrande, the world’s most-indebted property developer, is running out of time. The grace period on its first batch of unpaid offshore bonds ends this week. A formal default would hurt the property sector and help some others.

The Chinese property developer has been trying to sell a majority stake in its property management division. The expected proceeds of $2.6bn are badly needed. Missed debt payments are piling up.

But the sale of shares in Evergrande Property Services has fallen through. Government officials brokering the deal were unable to calm buyer nerves. Evergrande is also reported to have failed to find a purchaser for its Hong Kong headquarters.

If one is declared and liquidation would bring more value to creditors than a turnround attempt, the biggest impact would be on property prices in places where Evergrande is active. The group has a large portfolio of properties spanning more than 560m square metres. This includes over 1m unfinished homes. Potentially these would all be put up for sale at once.

Chinese output is strong. But growth in the property and construction industries turned negative in the third quarter, according to official statistics. Property sales by floor area fell 16 per cent in September. New construction starts fell 14 per cent in September. A deeper property slowdown could help margins of other sectors hit by surging raw material prices. Demand for iron ore, steel and cement should fall. This would be a boon to manufacturers of cars, domestic appliances and any business burdened with high construction costs. The risk to them of financial contagion from real estate meltdown remains low.

 

[notsonice + 1,255]

sailors take warning ....red skies this morning

 

CONTAGION RISK

 

Statements from Evergrande peers on Thursday exacerbated investor concerns of contagion in the $5 trillion Chinese property sector that accounts for a quarter of the country's economy by some metrics.

 

Since the government started clamping down on corporate debt in 2017, many real estate developers turned to off-balance-sheet vehicles to borrow money and skirt regulatory scrutiny, analysts and lawyers said. read more

Oceanwide Holdings International Development, a unit of developer Oceanwide Holdings (000046.SZ), said on Thursday its notes due Oct. 31 , worth $134 million, had defaulted.

Modern Land China Co Ltd (1107.HK) said it had ceased seeking consent from investors to extend the maturity date of a dollar bond due on Oct. 25 , and that it planned to engage an adviser to solve its liquidity issues.

 

The company's Hong Kong-listed shares were suspended from trading on Thursday, while its bonds slumped. Its 11.95% March 2024 bond traded down nearly 20% at below 21 cents, according to data provider Duration Finance.

Modern Land's decision weighed on investors' mood, said Clarence Tam, fixed income portfolio manager at Avenue Asset Management in Hong Kong. "The market is worried all single-B companies will choose not to pay," he said, referring to a credit rating level.

Investor concerns were not confined to offshore markets.

A September 2023 bond from developer Aoyuan Group Co was the biggest faller among corporate bonds on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, according to exchange data, dropping 10% to 88.65 yuan.

 

Ratings agency Fitch downgraded Central China Real Estate (0832.HK) to "B+" from "BB-" with a negative outlook on Thursday, following a similar action by Moody's.

Fitch said China's attempts to keep tighter risk controls for the property sector without magnifying a growth slowdown illustrated the difficult trade-offs policymakers are facing.

If policy easing is too cautious, stress could spread to other parts of the economy and the financial system, while a substantial credit loosening could set back efforts to control financial risks, it added.

DEAL FAILURE

 

Trading in the Hong Kong-listed shares of Evergrande and Evergrande Property Services Group Ltd (6666.HK) resumed on Thursday after a more than two-week suspension pending the announcement of the now-failed stake sale.

Evergrande closed down 12.5% and the services unit dropped 8%, while Evergrande's electric vehicle arm (0708.HK) eased 2%.

Shares in Hopson Development Holdings Ltd (0754.HK), which was in talks to buy the services unit stake, rose 7.6%.

Both sides traded blame for the deal failure, with Hopson saying Evergrande had asked it to make "substantial changes" to agreed terms. Evergrande said on Wednesday it had reason to believe Hopson had not met the "prerequisite to make a general offer," without elaborating.

 

The deal is Evergrande's second to collapse amid a scramble to raise cash. Sources told Reuters last week the $1.7 billion sale of the developer's Hong Kong headquarters had failed. read more

Evergrande also said on Wednesday that, barring its sale of a stake worth $1.5 billion in Chinese lender Shengjing Bank Co (2066.HK), it had made no material progress in selling other assets.

Reporting by Clare Jim in HONG KONG and Andrew Galbraith in SHANGHAI, additional reporting by Anshuman Daga in SINGAPORE and Marc Jones in LONDON; Writing by Anne Marie Roantree and Sumeet Chatterjee; Editing by Lincoln Feast, Himani Sarkar and Mark Potter