Oil Price: does the security vacuum in the Middle East spook investors?

[hemanthaa@mail.com + 64]

The abrupt withdrawal of the US air defence system, along with the Patriotic batteries, undoubtedly has left a security vacuum in the Middle East, as far as two major oil producers in the region are concerned – the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

Although both sides in the dispute, the US and its allies, initially shrugged it off as something that borders on triviality, a few unprecedented developments in the immediate aftermath of the move by the US, say otherwise.

On one hand, the Crown Prince of the UAE, start visiting two major European capitals, London and Paris, enhancing the security cooperation, while promising substantial investments in the countries in question.

On the other hand, a photo, released by a source closer to the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, is doing rounds involving the Emir of Qatar, Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia and the National Security Advisor to the Crown Prince of the UAE, depicting a casual, relaxed appearance – in a stark contrast to how they are normally seen.

Since the photograph has not widely featured in the local media of the three countries, political analysts believe that it was really not meant for the local audiences to give them a sense of liberalism.  

The apparent disbelief felt in certain quarters got amplified because of the fact that Qatar and Saudi Arabia – the UAE too - were at loggerheads for three years, by cutting off diplomatic relations and even imposing no-fly zone for Qatari flights in 2017, up until they were pacified by the intervention of Jared Kushner, President Trump’s son-in-law.

Since finding a viable substitute for the US military might is next to nothing, the UAE and Saudi Arabia seem to be scrambling over uneven diplomatic pitches in order to address the looming security priorities. It may not be easy, though. The Houthis are hell bent on leaving the Kingdom at the receiving end of never-ending hostility; there was an attack on  a Saudi oil filed last week too, despite it being intercepted – and destroyed - in the last minute.

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Edited September 20, 2021 by hemanthaa@mail.com
Keywords added

[Strangelovesurfing + 737]

Saudi Arabia has other options to pursue while still staying within the greater US 'alliance' system. I view this as a pressure play from the US, pushing Israel and S. Arabia together in what amounts to a de-facto military alliance.

https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/israel-should-provide-saudi-arabia-with-iron-dome-batteries-662715

https://www.trtworld.com/magazine/us-will-protect-the-gulf-by-iron-dome-missile-system-43563

https://breakingdefense.com/2021/09/saudi-arabia-considering-israeli-made-missile-defense-systems/

From a US perspective, Israel and S. Arabia having well functioning military relations is the best result you could ask for. The US gets its missile defense assets back, can focus on the Indo-Pacific and both Israel and S. Arabia can work on missile defenses which better fit their needs.  Cards are being shuffled, but they are staying in the same deck. 

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,192]

If you believe the Sauds and Israel will ever have a military alliance, I have some prime swamp land to sell you. 

Sell things to the Sauds, yes, military alliance, no. 

[Strangelovesurfing + 737]

1 hour ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

If you believe the Sauds and Israel will ever have a military alliance, I have some prime swamp land to sell you. 

Sell things to the Sauds, yes, military alliance, no. 

They don't need to call it an alliance, they just need to support each other quietly. From what I've been reading this has been going on between Israel/UAE/SA behind the scenes for years now.

It's an open secret in the middle east, the articles may just be trial balloons to judge pubic opinion. The Saudi general population appears more interested in protection from Houthis attacks than 'screw the Jews' these days.

The stars seem to be aligning. US would support it, Israel is in, there doesn't seem to be any popular Saudi backlash so far. Why not inch a bit further along?

Edited September 22, 2021 by Strangelovesurfing

[Cynerenika 0]

Saudi Arabia is considering acquiring Iron Dome missile defense (BMD) systems produced by the Israeli company Rafael and Barak ER manufactured by Israel Aerospace Industries. A person close to the Israeli military said that "Saudi Arabia's interest in Israeli systems has reached a practical phase. The oil country does not have enough Digital Oil and Gas Solutions. According to Breaking Defense, the Israeli Defense Ministry will close the deal with the Saudis only after approval by the United States. At the same time, the same sources said that Riyadh in the Saudi capital city, is also considering options to buy air defense equipment from Russia and China.

Edited September 30, 2021 by Cynerenika

[0R0 + 6,251]

Is the reported purchase of missile systems from Russia a point of concern re US and Israeli standing in the gulf? Is Russia going to unify the gulf with both Iran and Saudi as client states?

I keep looking to see if Zeihan's prognostication that the US (and Russia) have no interest in supporting peace in the Gulf oil patch since they are competitors to domestic oil producers. While at the moment the Biden occupation administration is attempting to shut down US oil and gas, that will not hold for long and that attitude will be lost once the Jo Bi Deng crowd is safely in jail. So we should keep in mind that change of circumstance. Oddly, EU is not doing anything about Gulf security. Their recent experiences with power outages should have disabused them of the notion that they can have an oil free economy, not to speak of oil and nuke free. They should have noted what Trump said explicitly, that the free ride for protection of their resources and trade routes is over. It wasn't exactly reading tea leaves. 

 

[Sebastian Meana + 278]

On 9/20/2021 at 10:24 AM, hemanthaa@mail.com said:

The abrupt withdrawal of the US air defence system, along with the Patriotic batteries, undoubtedly has left a security vacuum in the Middle East, as far as two major oil producers in the region are concerned – the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

Although both sides in the dispute, the US and its allies, initially shrugged it off as something that borders on triviality, a few unprecedented developments in the immediate aftermath of the move by the US, say otherwise.

On one hand, the Crown Prince of the UAE, start visiting two major European capitals, London and Paris, enhancing the security cooperation, while promising substantial investments in the countries in question.

On the other hand, a photo, released by a source closer to the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, is doing rounds involving the Emir of Qatar, Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia and the National Security Advisor to the Crown Prince of the UAE, depicting a casual, relaxed appearance – in a stark contrast to how they are normally seen.

Since the photograph has not widely featured in the local media of the three countries, political analysts believe that it was really not meant for the local audiences to give them a sense of liberalism.  

The apparent disbelief felt in certain quarters got amplified because of the fact that Qatar and Saudi Arabia – the UAE too - were at loggerheads for three years, by cutting off diplomatic relations and even imposing no-fly zone for Qatari flights in 2017, up until they were pacified by the intervention of Jared Kushner, President Trump’s son-in-law.

Since finding a viable substitute for the US military might is next to nothing, the UAE and Saudi Arabia seem to be scrambling over uneven diplomatic pitches in order to address the looming security priorities. It may not be easy, though. The Houthis are hell bent on leaving the Kingdom at the receiving end of never-ending hostility; there was an attack on  a Saudi oil filed last week too, despite it being intercepted – and destroyed - in the last minute.

Please click here for more:

 

 

 

 

Quite the opposite i guess, sure it is a problem if you put your assets on the middle east, but if you have to put money in oil production anywhere else, wether is Algeria, Libya, which will have to be split between Egypt and Algeria, or Russia, or other countries is great

If Iran or Russia destroy or atack saudi facilities or iranian facilities get punched, incluiding iraqi ones, the price of crude gets higher.

Iraq is going to be eventaully annexed by Turkey at some point in this decade, and with the excepcion of qatar that might remain neutron all the arabian peninsula is going to go into the same side as the Saudis

Edited September 29, 2021 by Sebastian Meana