"Biden Targets Another US Pipeline For Shutdown After 'Begging' Saudis For More Oil" - Zero Hedge Monday Nov 8th

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

EXCERPT - Line 5 is part of a network of oil pipes which move approximately 540,000 barrels per day from western Canada to Escanaba, Michigan.

https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/biden-targets-another-us-pipeline-shutdown-after-begging-saudis-more-oil

SHORT TWITTER VIDEOS in article

Biden Targets Another US Pipeline For Shutdown After 'Begging' Saudis For More Oil

by Tyler Durden

Monday, Nov 08, 2021 - 12:10 PM

Despite approval ratings in the toilet, President Biden and his administration are reportedly exploring the closure of yet another pipeline in a bid to shift the US away from fossil fuels and appease environmental activists.

The move - shutting down the Line 5 pipeline which links Superior, WI to Sarnia, Ontario, would cost tens of thousands of US jobs, billions of dollars in economic activity, and further exacerbate energy shortages and price increases hitting lower-income Americans the hardest, according to a Thursday letter from 13 House Republicans led by Rep. Bob Latta

According to the letter, the closure would affect workers across "Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, and the region," and would place the environment at greater risk "due to additional trucks operating on roadways carrying hazardous materials."

Line 5 is part of a network of oil pipes which move approximately 540,000 barrels per day from western Canada to Escanaba, Michigan.

"Furthermore, as we enter the winter months and temperatures drop across the Midwest, the termination of Line 5 will undoubtedly further exacerbate shortages and price increases in home heating fuels like natural gas and propane at a time when Americans are already facing rapidly rising energy prices, steep home heating costs, global supply shortages, and skyrocketing gas prices."

This comes less than two weeks after the White House begged OPEC to increase oil production amid 'supply issues' and soaring energy prices.

It also comes after a weekend which started out with US Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm scoffing at the notion of increasing domestic oil production...

...and ended on Sunday with her warning that Americans should expect to pay higher costs to heat their homes this winter - telling CNN's "State of the Union":

"This is going to happen. It will be -- it will be more expensive this year than last year," adding "We are in a slightly beneficial position, well certainly relative to Europe, because their choke hold of natural gas is very significant. ... But we have the same problem in fuels that the supply chains have, which is that the oil and gas companies are not flipping the switch as quickly as the demand requires."

According to Jason Hayes, director of environmental policy at the Mackinac Center for Public Policy, Biden's energy policies and potentially shutting down Line 5, is "just one more example of being divorced from reality."

"They're planning to power an industrial nation like the United States on solar panels and wind turbines," Hayes told Fox News.

"I hope it doesn't end like this, but where I see it going is unfortunately the same thing that happened in February in Texas: People freezing in their homes," he continued. "Most of the time when it's extremely cold or there's a real bad polar vortex situation, typically it's pretty cloudy and there's not a lot of wind."

Environmental groups and Native Amerian tribes, meanwhile, claim that a potential oil spill from the 70-year-old pipeline could devastate the Great Lakes and Michigan's coastal economies.

"Given the strength and oscillation of the currents, over 700 miles of Lake Michigan and Huron shoreline would face serious contamination" in the event of a spill, wrote a group of 12 tribal nations in a Nov. 4 letter to Biden. "In contrast to Canada’s vocal support of [pipeline owner] Enbridge, and despite what we understand to be the Governor’s requests for help, your Administration has thus far been silent regarding Line 5."

As Politico notes:

All this means that Biden, who promised at the COP26 climate talks that the United States would be “hopefully leading by the power of our example,” is facing the sort of cold, hard political decision that such grand climate ambitions can force on a country that is the world's top oil and gas producer, said Kevin Book, managing director at energy consulting firm ClearView Energy: Either keep the pipeline in place and disappoint progressives, or revoke its permit and hand Republicans fresh ammunition just after they shellacked Democrats in Virginia and other state elections.

"When fuel prices are high, it may not matter what project gets stopped so much as the White House is seen stopping it," said Bock. "Politically speaking, anything that could get in the way of the propane supply ahead of winter could play badly in Midwestern swing states."

Do they even care at this point?

 

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Biden-Threatens-OPEC-With-Undisclosed-Tools.html

Biden Threatens OPEC+ With Undisclosed "Tools"

By Irina Slav - Nov 08, 2021, 10:00 AM CST

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"There are other tools in the arsenal that we have to deal with other countries at an appropriate time," President Biden said this weekend, referring to OPEC+ and its refusal to boost crude oil supply in response to repeated calls from Washington to that tune.

The mentioning of "tools in the arsenal" came in response to a question about whether Washington was considering the release of some crude from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve as a means of reining in retail fuel prices.

"I'm not anticipating that OPEC would respond, that Russia and/or Saudi Arabia would respond," President Biden said, as quoted by Reuters. "They are going to pump some more oil. Whether they pump enough oil is a different thing."

"We can get more energy in the pipeline figuratively and literally speaking," the president added.

The U.S. administration has been urging OPEC and its partners in OPEC+ to add more barrels to their combined output since July as recovering demand for oil products pushed prices at the pump to politically uncomfortable highs.

Most recently, the calls have turned into demands and accusations of OPEC+ threatening the global economic recovery by withholding barrels from the market.

"Opec+ seems unwilling to use the capacity and power it has now at this critical moment of global recovery for countries around the world," a spokesperson for President Biden's National Security Council said last week, as quoted by the Financial Times. "Our view is that the global recovery should not be imperilled by a mismatch between supply and demand."

The option of releasing crude from the SPR has been mentioned a few times, including by Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm, but for now, the administration appears to be reluctant to tap the strategic reserve. As to what the other tools are that Washington plans to use to convince OPEC+ to pump more oil, details on those have yet to be shared publicly.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Saudi-Arabia-Aggressively-Hikes-Oil-Prices-As-Market-Tightens.html

Saudi Arabia Aggressively Hikes Oil Prices As Market Tightens

By Tsvetana Paraskova - Nov 08, 2021, 9:00 AM CST

• Saudi Arabia raised on Saturday the official selling prices (OSPs) for its crude in December to all customers
• The $1.40-per-barrel price hike for the world's most important oil-importing market was much higher than analysts and refiners had expected
• Saudi Arabia generally sets the pricing trend for Middle Eastern crude from other major exporters such as Kuwait and Iraq

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Saudi Arabia raised on Saturday the official selling prices (OSPs) for its crude in December to all customers by much more than traders and refiners had expected, suggesting that the world's largest oil exporter believes the market will continue to tighten.   

Saudi Aramco hiked the price of its flagship Arab Light crude grade to Asia for December by $1.40 per barrel to a premium of $2.70 a barrel over the Oman/Dubai average, the benchmark off which Middle East's crude exports to Asia are being priced.

The $1.40-per-barrel price hike for the world's most important oil-importing market was much higher than analysts and refiners had expected.

A Reuters survey showed at the end of October that traders expected the Saudis to raise the price of Arab Light for Asia in December by between $0.30 and $0.90 a barrel over the $1.30 per barrel premium to the Oman/Dubai average for November.

According to Bloomberg estimates, the Saudi price hike for December was the second-highest monthly increase in OSP for Arab Light to Asia in 20 years, excluding the March-early April 2020 price war with Russia.

"The price increments are much higher than market expectations and give a bullish signal on supply tightness," ING strategists Warren Patterson and Wenyu Yao said on Monday.

"OPEC's steady approach on the output increments at 400Mbbls/d per month and stronger oil demand in global markets appears to have contributed to the increase in prices," the strategists added. Related: Iraq Cuts Its Once-Popular Basrah Light Crude Oil Blend

Saudi Arabia also raised the prices for all its crude grades to all regions, including the heavy crudes to Asia, despite weaker fuel oil margins there.

"It just tells you that Saudi is very bullish and they also think that the market is very tight and that's why they dare to hike prices so much," a trader based in Singapore told Reuters.

Saudi Arabia generally sets the pricing trend for Middle Eastern crude from other major exporters such as Kuwait and Iraq.

The large increase in prices from the Saudis came two days after the OPEC+ alliance defied calls from the U.S. Administration to boost supply more and decided to continue easing the collective oil production cuts by just 400,000 barrels per day next month.  

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Occidental-Petroleum-Stops-Hedging-Oil-In-2022.html

Occidental Petroleum Stops Hedging Oil In 2022

By Irina Slav - Nov 08, 2021, 10:30 AM CST

Occidental Petroleum plans to stop hedging its oil output next year as prices remain elevated with substantial upside potential.

"Our current oil and gas hedges will expire by the end of this year, and we have not added any new hedges for future periods," said chief financial officer Rob Peterson during a call with analysts, as quoted d by Bloomberg.

Last week, Pioneer Natural Resources also said it would significantly reduce hedging amid the higher oil prices. Chief executive Scott Sheffield said he expected prices in 2022 to be between $80 and $100 per barrel.

Pioneer suffered substantial losses from its hedging bets this year, at some $2 billion, as it hedged its future production at prices much lower than where they are now.

"I do think that we're getting in a very, very tighter market over the next several years. Unused capacity in OPEC+ is going to be used up in the next two years," Sheffield said as quoted by Reuters.

Pioneer was by far not the only one to suffer losses stemming from its hedging decisions. Early this year, as West Texas Intermediate reached $70 per barrel, IHS Markit calculated that prematurely hedging producers lost billions because they hedged their output at $55 per barrel.

For the first half of 2021, IHS Markit said in July, losses reached $7.5 billion, but if oil prices remained around $75 per barrel, this could add another $12 billion during the second half of the year as demand continues to improve. 

Prices are still on the rise after a quick dip following last week's OPEC+ meeting. On Friday, Saudi Aramco raised its official selling price for oil, which added fuel to the price rally as it supported expectations that oil demand will remain strong in the coming months. That's despite a slump in China oil imports resulting from the higher prices.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Chinese-Crude-Oil-Imports-Drop-To-Three-Year-Low-In-October.html

Chinese Crude Oil Imports Drop To Three-Year Low In October

By Tsvetana Paraskova - Nov 08, 2021, 11:00 AM CST

• China imported 8.9 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude last month, down from 9.99 million bpd in September 2021
• Higher international oil prices and a crackdown on illicit import quota led to lower imports

Higher international oil prices and China’s crackdown on illicit import quota trade led to the lowest Chinese crude oil imports in three years in October.

China imported 8.9 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude last month, down from 9.99 million bpd in September 2021 and from 10 million in October last year, official customs data cited by Reuters showed this weekend.

The rally in crude oil prices, the limited import quotas for independent refiners, the so-called teapots, and the government crackdown on the illegal trade of crude import quotas dragged October 2021 crude imports to the lowest level since September 2018, according to Reuters estimates based on data from the Chinese General Administration of Customs.

China’s crude oil imports averaged 10.21 million bpd between January and October 2021, down by 7.2 percent compared to the same period of last year, when oil prices were significantly lower than $80 a barrel.

Last month, China was said to have cut once again the crude oil import quotas for independent refiners for the rest of the year in the latest move to curb their growing oil market clout.

Apart from rallying crude oil prices, Beijing’s crackdown on the private refining industry was another reason behind the import decline so far this year, as the government tackled excessive fuel supply, much of which came from teapots. Allegations of environmental law violations and tax evasion were also leveled against some independent refiners. Additionally, Beijing has ordered state-owned refiners to stop trading their import quotas with private peers.

Going forward, Chinese crude oil imports in November could be higher because refiners have been asked to help with the diesel shortage in the country. Officials at the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), China’s planning body, reportedly asked refiners in a meeting last month whether they would be able to import more diesel, produce more fuel, or purchase crude oil at reasonable prices.  

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

[Starschy + 211]

The undisclosed tools are long ago known. Nopec Act is since about 2008 known.

The problem for the US no more Oil from Opec and Countries like Saudi Arabia would withdraw Billions of USD.

Such a Law would send a huge Price Spike across the US.

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/UAE-OPEC-Capable-Of-Raising-Oil-Production-If-Theres-Demand.html

UAE: OPEC+ Capable Of Raising Oil Production If There's Demand

By Tsvetana Paraskova - Nov 08, 2021, 2:30 PM CST

The OPEC+ group has the capability to increase its crude oil supply to the market if there is demand, according to one of the key members of the coalition, the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

The UAE has the capacity to boost its own crude oil supply to the market in case the market needs it and the OPEC+ alliance endorses it, Suhail al-Mazrouei, the UAE's Energy Minister, told Dubai-based Asharq TV channel as carried by Reuters.

Despite the UAE's reassurance that market demand will be met, the OPEC+ group ignored calls from the U.S. Administration and other major oil importers such as India and Japan to increase December supply more than initially planned.

OPEC+ decided last week to continue easing the collective oil production cuts by just 400,000 barrels per day next month, ignoring calls from major oil-consuming nations to open the taps and tame the price rally. The rationale for keeping a cautious approach seems to be assessments from OPEC+ experts that Q4 would see a smaller market deficit than expected earlier and that the balance would tip into surplus next year.

Days before that, U.S. President Joe Biden had said at the G20 meeting in Rome that the refusal of OPEC+ in recent weeks to increase crude oil production is affecting America's working class.

OPEC+ not only ignored the calls for extra crude oil supply, but it also told the market, via Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, that "oil is not the problem" in the global energy crisis.

The OPEC+ decision was taken "to ensure a stable and a balanced oil market, the efficient and secure supply to consumers and to provide clarity to the market at times when other parts of the energy complex outside the boundaries of oil markets are experiencing extreme volatility and instability, and to continue to adopt a proactive and transparent approach which has provided stability to oil markets," OPEC said after the meeting.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Saudi-Arabias-Economy-Booms-As-Oil-Prices-Rise.html

Saudi Arabia's Economy Booms As Oil Prices Rise

By Irina Slav - Nov 09, 2021, 11:00 AM CST

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Saudi Arabia reported economic growth of 6.8 percent on the year for the third quarter on the back of higher oil prices. This is the highest quarterly growth for the Kingdom since 2012, Reuters noted in a report.

“This positive growth was due to the high increase in oil activities by 9.0% as a result of rising world demand for crude oil and the increase of Saudi production in 2021,” the Saudi General Authority for Statistics said.

The seasonally adjusted gross domestic product rose by 5.8 percent on a quarterly basis thanks to a 12.9-percent expansion in oil activities, the authority added.

Oil prices have risen substantially since the start of the year thanks to growing demand and tight supply, including oil in storage globally. As a result, oil producers have seen a windfall, with Aramco booking a net profit of $30.4 billion for the third quarter of the year, up by 158 percent from the third quarter of 2020.

Chief executive, Amin Nasser, attributed the strong quarterly result to the rebound in economic activity globally, which caused a surge in energy demand. Nasser noted Saudi Aramco’s position as a low-cost producer as a contributing factor for its third-quarter performance as well.

“Some headwinds still exist for the global economy, partly due to supply chain bottlenecks, but we are optimistic that energy demand will remain healthy for the foreseeable future,” Amin Nasser also said.

Taking full advantage of the state of oil’s fundamentals, last week, the Kingdom raised its official selling price for Arab Light—its flagship grade—for Asian buyers by more than $1 per barrel. As a result, Asian refiners and traders would be paying $2.70 above the Oman/Dubai average for Saudi light crude for December delivery.

The country is also keeping a lid on production, although it is working towards boosting its oil production capacity to 13 million bpd.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

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[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Democrats-Call-On-Biden-To-Ban-Oil-Exports.html

Democrats Call On Biden To Ban Oil Exports

By Irina Slav - Nov 09, 2021, 10:00 AM CST

• A group of Democratic Senators has called on President Joe Biden to reimpose a ban on crude oil exports
• The same group blamed higher gasoline prices on OPEC
• Democratic Senators: high gasoline prices have placed an undue burden on families and small businesses

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A group of Democratic Senators has called on President Joe Biden to reimpose a ban on crude oil exports as the administration struggles to contain retail fuel prices.

"In light of these pressing concerns, we ask that you consider all tools available at your disposal to lower US gasoline prices. This includes a release from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and a ban on crude oil exports," the legislators, led by Sen. Elizabeth Warren, Sen. Sherrod Brown, and Sen. Jack Reed, among others, said in a letter, as cited by CNN.

Even so, the senators blamed the higher gas prices at OPEC's door, saying the organization "purposefully manipulate[d] gas prices" by curbing supply. President Biden has repeatedly called on OPEC+ to increase the supply of crude oil to international markets in order for U.S. retail fuel prices to go down.  He has stopped short of accusing the cartel of deliberately manipulating the latter prices by withholding supply.

"As the United States work[s] to boost the development of clean and renewable energy over the long-term, we must ensure that Americans are able to afford to fill up their cars at the pump in the meantime," the Democratic senators wrote in the letter, as cited by The Epoch Times.

"In our home states," the signatories also wrote, "high gasoline prices have placed an undue burden on families and small businesses trying to make ends meet, and have proven especially burdensome as our constituents continue to recover from the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic."

The administration has said that various options for addressing rising gas prices were on the table, including drawing from the strategic petroleum reserve to add supply to the market. The success of such a move is questionable, according to experts—the oil in SPR is mostly sour crude, which is not refiners' favorite. What's more, the draw would need to be quite significant to make a difference in price trends.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

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• Chinese Crude Oil Imports Drop To Three-Year Low In October
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[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Saudi-Arabia-Warns-Of-Shrinking-Spare-Oil-Production-Capacity.html

Saudi Arabia Warns Of Shrinking Spare Oil Production Capacity

By Tsvetana Paraskova - Nov 09, 2021, 9:00 AM CST

• Aramco CEO: The world will see its level of spare oil production capacity dwindle next year
• An expected rise in jet fuel demand will eliminate all spare production capacity

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The world will see its level of spare oil production capacity dwindle next year as jet fuel demand returns to pre- or near-pre-crisis levels, Amin Nasser, the chief executive of Saudi Aramco, said on Tuesday.

"The industry's spare capacity, currently at 3-4 million barrels per day (bpd) is providing some comfort to the market, however, my concern is that the buffer ... might diminish, especially next year when demand is expected to pick up further," Nasser said at the Nikkei Global Management Forum, as carried by Reuters.

An expected rise in jet fuel demand, which continues to lag the demand recovery in other fuels, will eliminate all spare capacity, according to the CEO of the world's largest oil exporter.

Little spare capacity amid continued underinvestment in oil and gas should be "a huge concern" for the market, Nasser said.

"Expanding capacity in our industry takes around 5-7 years, and there is not enough investment in the world to increase capacity, this is a huge concern," Nasser said.

Aramco's top executive affirmed the company's plan to raise its oil production capacity to 13 million bpd by 2027 from 12 million bpd now, reiterating that oil and gas demand will remain healthy for decades to come.

"Renewable energy can't yet meet the world's energy needs," Nasser said at the forum, carried by Bloomberg.

Aramco's CEO also reiterated the company's view that global oil demand would exceed 100 million bpd as early as next year.

At the end of last month, Nasser said that crude oil production capacity was dwindling globally, and more investments in new production are needed urgently.

"It's a huge concern," Nasser told Bloomberg, adding that "If there's aviation pick up next year, that spare capacity will be depleted. It's now getting to a situation where there's limited supply -- whatever is left that's spare is declining rapidly."

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

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[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

https://community.oilprice.com/topic/24462-monday-913-high-natural-gas-prices-today-will-send-us-production-soaring-next-year-by-irina-slav/

 

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Why-US-Shale-Wont-Go-To-War-With-OPEC.html

Why U.S. Shale Won’t Go To War With OPEC+

By David Messler - Nov 08, 2021, 8:00 PM CST

• OPEC+ will be very happy with where oil prices currently are and is unlikely to change its course anytime soon
• The U.S. does have the ability to increase production, but U.S. shale does not have support from either the government or shareholders to boost production significantly
• The two bearish variables that could drag prices down in the near term are a strong dollar and the continuation of inventory builds

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/High-Fuel-Prices-May-Force-Biden-To-Change-Stance-On-Crucial-Pipeline.html

High Fuel Prices May Force Biden To Change Stance On Crucial Pipeline

By Charles Kennedy - Nov 09, 2021, 9:30 AM CST

The White House is studying the replacement of Line 5—a contentious piece of infrastructure that carries crude oil and fuels from Canada to the United States through the Great Lakes region—which the governor of Michigan wants to shut down for good.

The Biden administration is considering the impact of the pipeline's replacement, a spokeswoman for the White House confirmed, as quoted by the Detroit News. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is studying the environmental impact of the replacement project to "help inform any additional action or position the U.S. will be taking on the replacement of Line 5."

The news comes after media reports that the administration was actually planning to kill the Line 5 pipeline—a move that sparked an outcry among Republicans who said shutting down the pipeline will send propane sky high for Michigan residents, who are the biggest consumers of the fuel, according to Politico.

"As we enter the winter months and temperatures drop across the Midwest, the termination of Line 5 will undoubtedly further exacerbate shortages and price increases in home heating fuels like natural gas and propane at a time when Americans are already facing rapidly rising energy prices, steep home heating costs, global supply shortages, and skyrocketing gas prices," Politico quoted Rep. Bob Lata, a Republican from Ohio, as saying in a letter a group of House representatives sent to the White House earlier this month.

The twin pipelines have been in operation for 65 years, which prompted the Canadian pipeline operator to propose a replacement of a section of the pipes with new ones a few years ago. The Michigan Legislature approved it in late 2018.

However, the replacement project sparked the outrage of environmentalists and Native American communities in the area. The opponents argued that a proposed tunnel in the Straits of Mackinac to house the pipeline would increase the risk of oil spills in a basin that provides drinking water to some 40 million people.

By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/UAE-Oil-Price-Would-Be-Double-Without-OPEC.html

UAE: Oil Price Would Be Double Without OPEC+

By Julianne Geiger - Nov 09, 2021, 7:30 AM CST

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Russia-Considers-Lifting-Its-Aluminum-Export-Tax.html

Russia Considers Lifting Its Aluminum Export Tax

By Ag Metal Miner - Nov 09, 2021, 10:30 AM CST

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Will-A-Strategic-Petroleum-Release-Bring-Down-US-Gasoline-Prices.html

Will A Strategic Petroleum Release Bring Down U.S. Gasoline Prices?

By Tsvetana Paraskova - Nov 09, 2021, 5:00 PM CST

• The Biden Administration is considering tapping the Strategic Petroleum Reserve as a potential tool to bring down the gasoline prices
• Selling millions of barrels from the SPR may do precious little to impact the price of gasoline directly
• If the Administration were to opt for an SPR sale to increase the availability of crude, it could likely release up to 60 million barrels of crude oil

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The Biden Administration is considering tapping the Strategic Petroleum Reserve as a potential tool to bring down the gasoline prices in America that have hit a seven-year high this year. 

However, selling millions of barrels from the SPR may do precious little to impact the price of gasoline directly, traders and analysts say.  

A sale from the SPR could be one of “tools in the arsenal”—as U.S. President Joe Biden said this weekend – which the Administration could use to relieve the burden on households who have been paying in recent months the highest prices at the pump since 2014.  

Yet, the U.S. may be able to release up to a tenth of the current stockpile in the SPR, traders have told Bloomberg. That wouldn’t be enough to bring down gasoline prices as much as the Administration possibly hopes, they warn. 

Moreover, most of a potential sale could consist of sour crude grades, which currently are not the favorite of refiners because they need more natural gas—whose prices are much higher now—to process those sour grades into fuels. 

SPR Release On The Table After OPEC+ Snub

“The SPR is certainly on the table as an option. The president will have more to say about that,” U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said on Friday when asked what America can do now to reduce gasoline prices. 

President Biden is considering a release from the SPR as a possible move to reduce gasoline prices in the United States, after OPEC+ ignored on Thursday calls for putting extra barrels on the market, Secretary Granholm told Bloomberg on Friday.

The President could announce measures to address high gasoline prices as soon as this week, Granholm told MSNBC in an interview on Monday.

“Hopefully there will be an announcement or so this week,” Granholm told MSNBC, referring to the President’s possible moves. 

“He’s certainly looking at what options he has in the limited range of tools a president might have to address the cost of gasoline at the pump, because it is a global market,” the energy secretary added.

Gasoline Prices Highest Since September 2014

Meanwhile, U.S. gasoline prices continued to climb despite the end of driving season two months ago.

In the week to November 8, “The price at the pump continued its slow climb, rising two cents on the week, with the national average for a gallon of gas hitting $3.42,” AAA said on Monday. That’s the highest since September 2014.

“The latest decision by OPEC and its oil-producing allies to maintain their planned gradual increase in output will not help lessen supply constraints, so any relief will most likely have to come from the demand side,” according to AAA.  

Shorter days with the end of the daylight saving time could decrease demand for gasoline in coming weeks, AAA spokesperson Andrew Gross said. 

SPR Sale Will Likely Be Up To Three Days Of U.S. Petroleum Consumption

If the Administration were to opt for an SPR sale to increase the availability of crude, it could likely release up to 60 million barrels of crude oil, after accounting for mandatory sales pre-approved by Congress and the minimum volumes needed at the storage sites, a source at one of the world’s top oil trading houses told Bloomberg on condition of anonymity.  Related: The U.S. Is Using Saudi Arabia To Expand Its Influence In Iraq

As of November 5, the SPR held 609.4 million barrels of crude oil, of which 252.5 million sweet crude and 356.9 million sour crude. 

A release of up to 60 million barrels in theory would cover around three days worth of total U.S. petroleum consumption, which was 20.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in the pre-pandemic 2019, per EIA data. 

According to analysts, an SPR sale wouldn’t do much to reduce prices at the pump and relieve the burden on households amid inflationary pressure for all other goods. 

“Other Tools In The Arsenal”

President Biden hinted during the weekend of “other tools in the arsenal” to tame rallying gasoline prices.

“There are other tools in the arsenal that we have to deal — and I’m dealing with other countries; at an appropriate time, I will talk about it — that we can get more energy in the — in the pipeline, figuratively and literally speaking,” President Biden said, referring to the oil market after OPEC+ snubbed the U.S. Administration’s call for extra supply. 

On Monday, eleven Democratic Senators wrote a letter to President Biden “to express our support for your efforts to help families and businesses across the nation who are struggling to cope with soaring gasoline prices.”

“Continued U.S. exports and overseas supply collusion could be devastating to many in our states, contributing to higher bills for American families and businesses,” the Senators, including Elizabeth Warren, said. 

“In light of these pressing concerns, we ask that you consider all tools available at your disposal to lower U.S. gasoline prices. This includes a release from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and a ban on crude oil exports. We hope you will consider these tools and others to make gasoline more affordable for all Americans,” the Senators wrote. 

Faced with the highest gasoline prices in seven years and one of the worst fears of every American president—high prices at the pump, the U.S. Administration with the long-term clean energy agenda is now scrambling to provide immediate relief to people’s gasoline and energy bills. 

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

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[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

Biden’s Infrastructure Bill Will Boost Oil Demand

By Haley Zaremba - Nov 09, 2021, 3:00 PM CST

• Biden’s Infrastructure Bill is often painted as being anti-fossil fuels, but the truth is that the bill will provide a major boost to the oil and gas industry 
• With plenty of the climate change provisions being removed from the bill or significantly weakened, it is primarily a bill that will spark an economic recovery and boost energy demand
• While environmentalists may be upset with how the bill has turned out, it is certainly still a step in the right direction for a country that claims to be determined to transition away from fossil fuels in the future

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Bidens-Infrastructure-Bill-Will-Boost-Oil-Demand.html

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Pressure-Mounts-On-Biden-To-Tap-US-Oil-Reserves.html

Pressure Mounts On Biden To Tap U.S. Oil Reserves

By Tom Kool - Nov 09, 2021, 2:00 PM CST

Join Our Community

With OPEC+ refusing to pump more oil and Saudi Arabia increasing its official selling prices, pressure is increasing on President Biden to consider tapping the Strategic Petroleum Reserves

Chart of the Week

- Netting a third straight month of declines, Chinese crude oil imports dropped to 8.94 million b/d in October, the lowest level since July 2018.  

- The regional electricity mandates contributed to a fall in utilization rates to 81%, a five-month low, despite robust demand for transportation fuels. 

- Independent refiners were limited in their refining as the Chinese government only issued its last batches of import quotas in early October, luckily China still has some 830 MMbbls of crude inventories, down 80 MMbbls on the year. 

Market Movers

- The US conglomerate GE (NYSE:GE) will be split into three public companies focusing on energy, healthcare, and aviation, sending its stock up 7% on the day. 

- In a rare move for a Western major, US oil firm ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) announced it took an FID on a $10 billion petchem project in China’s Guangdong province that would specialize in performance polymers. 

- Spain’s oil firm CEPSA is considering the sale of its chemicals business valued at $3.5 billion as it seeks to garner funds for its transition towards renewable energy, with Citibank chosen to identify possible bidders. 

Tuesday, November 09, 2021

The US’ standoff with OPEC has become the main talking point of this week - not only did Saudi Arabia rebuff Washington’s calls for more output, but it also hiked its December official selling prices way beyond market expectations. Whilst US crude inventories have reportedly risen for the third straight week, the pressure is now on the Biden Administration to consider further SPR releases. Meanwhile, jet cracks have bounced back to prominence on the back of travel restrictions being lifted globally (despite both Europe and Asia seeing case spikes), adding some unseasonal strength to middle distillates.

US House of Representatives Approves $1 Trillion Infrastructure Bill. The Biden Administration finally managed to ram through the bipartisan 1 trillion bill that would increase baseline funding on infrastructure by 550 billion and more than 100 billion on clean energy projects. 

Gazprom Starts Filling up European Storage. Despite some concerns that Russia’sGazprom (MCX:GAZP) did not book any additional capacity via Ukraine and kept Yamal-Europe deliveries into Germany at zero on Monday, the Russian firm stated today it started to send gas towards its European storage. 

Aramco Sees Spare Oil Capacity Shrinking. The Saudi national oil company Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL:2222) said it expects the current 3-4 million b/d global spare production capacity to diminish significantly next year once jet demand returns in full. 

Canada’s Oil Sands on Track for All-Time High. Despite the ongoing COP26 hype, Canada’s oil sands producers are on track to reach an all-time high production rate of 3.5 million b/d by December amidst a nationwide move to focus on tight budget discipline and higher dividends. 

Qatar Wants More LNG Tankers. In addition to its currently operating fleet of 45 Q-Flex and Q-Max carriers, Qatar has placed another order for six new LNG vessels with South Korean shipyards as it moves to bring its total LNG fleet tally to 100 by the end of 2027. 

China’s Coal Production Reaches Multi-Year Peak. Chinese authorities reported that daily average national coal output reached 11.93 million tons over the first week of November, setting the scene for further price declines as Beijing is doing its utmost to alleviate the risks of a prolonged energy crunch.  Related: Oil Rally Reverses On Signs Of Cooling Demand

Venezuela Uses Sanctions Calm to Increase Output. Out of the public eye for several months, Venezuela’s national oil company PDVSA raised overall production to more than 600,000 b/d last month as it received Iranian condensate to dilute the extra-heavy crude from the Orinoco Belt. 

Saudi Arabia Wants to Pay Back Debts with Windfall Profits. According to media reports, Saudi Arabia is looking to amend the terms of a 16 billion loan due in 2023 and reduce the size of the credit facility, as Riyadh seeks to improve its credit ratings on the back of high oil prices. 

Alliance Refinery Set to Become Export Terminal. Unable to sell the 255,000 b/d Alliance Refinery which suffered the most damage from Hurricane Ida, US major Phillips 66 decided to convert the refinery into an oil export terminal, to be finalized by 2022. 

UK Funds Rolls Royce to Develop Nuclear. The UK government provided a $550 million backing to Rolls Royce (LON:RR) to develop the country’s first small modular nuclear reactor as London seeks non-intermittent energy sources to complement its vast wind capacity. 

Italy’s ENI Quits South Africa Block. The Italian oil major ENI (NYSE:E) withdrew from an offshore block in South Africa, a few months after its six-well drilling programs elicited a strong response from local environmentalists as the drilling would be near sites considered ecologically fragile. 

Morocco Looks Towards LNG After Algeria Feud. Having been cut off from Algerian pipeline gas exports on the back of a political spat, Morocco is now considering deploying an FSRU unit to start importing LNG as soon as possible. 

Gambia Re-Offers Block Relinquished by BP. Less than a year after BP (NYSE:BP)exited Gambia’s offshore block A1 citing its pivot towards low-carbon projects, the African nation’s government is offering the block in a new bidding round.

By Tom Kool for Oilprice.com

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Tom Kool

Tom majored in International Business at Amsterdam’s Higher School of Economics, he is Oilprice.com's Head of Operations

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[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/how-effective-would-spr-release-be

How Effective Would An SPR Release Be?

by Tyler Durden

Tuesday, Nov 09, 2021 - 02:47 PM

By John Kemp, Reuters energy commentator and reporter

The White House is reviewing its policy options to reduce the price of gasoline at the pump and expects to make an announcement in the next few days, the secretary of energy said in a television interview on Monday. Senior administration officials have repeatedly blamed OPEC+ for the rise in oil prices, which they say is boosting inflation and threatening the global economic recovery after last year’s pandemic. 

Speculation is growing the administration could order the release of crude from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to lower oil prices after OPEC+ last week rejected calls to accelerate its output increases.

In political terms, releasing oil from the SPR would demonstrate the administration’s concern about rising oil prices and the impact on the cost of living for households and businesses. But in practical terms, it is unclear whether a release would have much impact on prices beyond the very short term because the volume of extra oil that could be made available would be too small (see "SPR Sale Would Release Only 60MM Barrels; Will Bring Even Higher Oil Prices: Goldman").

Reserve History

The SPR was created to hold up to 1 billion barrels of petroleum by the Energy Policy and Conservation Act of 1975 (Public Law 94-163) in response to the Arab oil embargo of 1973/74.

“Congress finds that the storage of substantial quantities of petroleum products will diminish the vulnerability of the United States to the effects of a severe energy supply interruption, and provide limited protection from the short-term, consequences of interruptions in supplies of petroleum products”, according to section 151 of the act.

The SPR is part of a network of emergency reserves maintained by International Energy Agency (IEA) member countries, under the Agreement on an International Energy Program of 1974.

IEA members agreed to maintain emergency stocks equivalent to at least 90 days of net imports as part of their response to the first oil shock, but the practice of holding emergency reserves dates back much further.

Britain’s oil companies agreed to raise stocks to the equivalent of 3 months peace-time consumption in 1936 as part of planning for the Second World War (“Oil: a study in wartime policy and administration”, Payton-Smith, 1971).

Emergency Conditions

In the United States, the president is only permitted to order a drawdown from the reserve if he has determined it is required by “a severe energy supply interruption” or by international obligations under the IEA system. 

The president must determine that an emergency situation exists and there is a significant reduction in supply which is of significant scope and duration (U.S. Code Title 42 Section 6241(d)(2)(A)).

The president must also determine that a severe increase in the price of petroleum products has resulted from such emergency situation (42 USC 6241(d)(2)(B)) and that such price increase is likely to cause a major adverse impact on the national economy (42 USC 6241(d)(2)(C)).

In the circumstances which do not reach threshold of a severe energy supply interruption, the president may order a more limited release of up to 30 million barrels spread over no more than 60 days.

The president must determine a situation exists that “constitutes, or is likely to become, a domestic or international energy supply shortage of significant scope or duration” (42 USC 6241(h)(1)(A)).

He must also determine that “action taken under this subsection would assist directly and significantly in preventing or reducing the adverse impact of such shortage” (42 USC 6241(h)(1)(B)).

At international level, the IEA’s emergency reserves and programmes for reducing demand can be activated “whenever the group as a whole or any participating country sustains or can reasonably be expected to sustain a reduction in its oil supplies” (Agreement on an International Energy Program, Article 12).

The purpose is to develop “common effective measures to meet oil supply emergencies by developing an emergency self-sufficiency in oil supplies, restraining demand and allocating available oil among their countries on an equitable basis,” according to the agreement’s preamble.

Severe Energy Shortage

The legislative language establishing both the SPR and the IEA emergency reserves system makes clear the intent was to tackle physical energy shortages rather than simply a rise in prices.

Rising prices may be one of the harmful consequences of an energy shortage, with an adverse impact on the economy, but they were not the purpose for establishing emergency reserves.

Releasing SPR and IEA reserves makes sense when dealing with disruptions to supply as a result of extreme weather events (e.g. hurricanes); major oilfield or pipeline accidents; disruptions to major sea lanes of communication (e.g. the straits of Hormuz and Malacca and the Suez Canal); and embargoes (such as the Arab oil embargo).

Releasing reserves is also appropriate for maintaining adequate fuel supplies for both military and civilian users during extended military operations (e.g. conflict in the Persian Gulf or between the United States and China).

Finally, releasing reserves can provide mutual assistance to other countries which are themselves affected by extreme weather events, accidents, disruptions and embargoes.

In all these circumstances, the purpose of the stock release is to buy time for damaged infrastructure to be repaired or for diplomatic and military action to resolve embargoes, blockades and other political supply disruptions.

But stock releases were never envisaged and are not likely to be effective in countering OPEC+ production policies in the medium or long-term (https://tmsnrt.rs/31Egjfj).

Stocks versus Flows

The SPR and IEA emergency reserves are stocks while OPEC+ production policy affects a flow. Using stocks to try to counter flows is unlikely to be sustained or effective in anything other than the short term.

The SPR holds 613 million barrels of crude while other IEA members hold emergency reserves of about another 900 million barrels. OPEC+ countries account for more than 40 million barrels per day (bpd) of output.

If the U.S. president directed the release of 30 million barrels from the SPR under his more limited authority, it would be equivalent to increasing global supply by 82,000 bpd on a full-year basis, which is not significant.

If the United States was able to prevail on other IEA members to take part in a coordinated release, which is far from certain, the total volume might increase to 60 million barrels or 164,000 bpd on a full-year basis.

These stock release volumes would be very small compared with the increases of 400,000 bpd each month that OPEC+ has already announced, so the price impact would probably be limited.

The United States and other IEA members would have to release very large volumes of crude and products from stocks to have an enduring impact on the level of prices.

But the legal authority for large increases in excess of 30 million barrels by the United States and the same again by other IEA members is unclear and there may not be much enthusiasm across the membership as a whole.

Shock and Awe?

SPR and other emergency releases may be able to alter both spot prices and calendar spreads in the short term, but the impact is likely to be maximised if the release is unusually large and/or unexpected.

The White House has lost the element of surprise by repeatedly floating the idea of an SPR release several weeks in advance, which means it might need to go for a larger increase to create the necessary “shock and awe”.

More generally, an SPR release, unless very large and coordinated with other IEA members, is unlikely to have much sustained impact on its own on the production-consumption balance, level of inventories, prices or spreads.

To have a significant and lasting impact, the administration would need to combine the release with domestic policy measures to increase U.S. oil output, as well as diplomatic measures to persuade or coerce OPEC+ members to raise their own production faster.

Related materials:

The Strategic Petroleum Reserve: Background, Authorities, and Considerations (Congressional Research Service, 2020)

Related columns:  

•  Depleted U.S. oil inventories leave market vulnerable to shocks (Reuters, Nov. 4) 
•  Rising oil prices are fuelling expected inflation (Reuters, Nov. 3)
•  Rally in U.S. oil futures fuelled by Cushing stock draws (Reuters, Oct. 28) 
•  OPEC+ comfortable with rising price trend (Reuters, Oct. 26)

 

[nsdp + 449]

8 hours ago, Tom Nolan said:

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/High-Fuel-Prices-May-Force-Biden-To-Change-Stance-On-Crucial-Pipeline.html

High Fuel Prices May Force Biden To Change Stance On Crucial Pipeline

By Charles Kennedy - Nov 09, 2021, 9:30 AM CST

The White House is studying the replacement of Line 5—a contentious piece of infrastructure that carries crude oil and fuels from Canada to the United States through the Great Lakes region—which the governor of Michigan wants to shut down for good.

The Biden administration is considering the impact of the pipeline's replacement, a spokeswoman for the White House confirmed, as quoted by the Detroit News. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is studying the environmental impact of the replacement project to "help inform any additional action or position the U.S. will be taking on the replacement of Line 5."

The news comes after media reports that the administration was actually planning to kill the Line 5 pipeline—a move that sparked an outcry among Republicans who said shutting down the pipeline will send propane sky high for Michigan residents, who are the biggest consumers of the fuel, according to Politico.

"As we enter the winter months and temperatures drop across the Midwest, the termination of Line 5 will undoubtedly further exacerbate shortages and price increases in home heating fuels like natural gas and propane at a time when Americans are already facing rapidly rising energy prices, steep home heating costs, global supply shortages, and skyrocketing gas prices," Politico quoted Rep. Bob Lata, a Republican from Ohio, as saying in a letter a group of House representatives sent to the White House earlier this month.

The twin pipelines have been in operation for 65 years, which prompted the Canadian pipeline operator to propose a replacement of a section of the pipes with new ones a few years ago. The Michigan Legislature approved it in late 2018.

However, the replacement project sparked the outrage of environmentalists and Native American communities in the area. The opponents argued that a proposed tunnel in the Straits of Mackinac to house the pipeline would increase the risk of oil spills in a basin that provides drinking water to some 40 million people.

By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.coma

Tom , the story is filled with crass stupidity.  First the Treaty  that governs  this specifically excludes this line from the terms of the treaty. The line quality and installation was substandard when built so it is excluded from treaty coverage. . The Great Lakes  Clean Water Agreement which is an adjunct to the treaty specifically bars new underwater petroleum pipelines in the Great Lakes estuary. I have been around long enough to have been doing pipeline safety for over fifty years and started with the company whose carelessness triggered the Pipeline Safety Act of 1968.   The pipeline safety act amendments requires use of  a  bridge over the strait instead of a new tunnel.  Chump and his friends could not permit this if they wanted. Under the same statute, Dakota Access should not have been given an UNDERWATER river crossing permit on the Sioux reservation.  The Comics of Engineers should have required an overhead crossing of the Missouri River.  The treaty also protects the treaty rights  of the local tribes. As Justice Gorsuch explained to the State of Oklahoma  this last summer, actions of the Oklahoma Legislature don't mean squat when native American rights are involved.  The Michigan Legislature is meaning less without tribal approval.  Biden doesn't have the legal authority  to keep the line open.

Lastly the Line 5 capacity (including propane) has been replaced by the Line 3 upgrade in Minnesota and North Dakota.  Net  Impact will be 0 since Line 3 has been closed for over a year due to corrosion. https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/enbridge-completes-line-3-oil-pipeline-replacement-project-starts-linefill-2021-09-29

"CALGARY, Alberta, Sept. 29 (Reuters) - Enbridge Inc ENB.TO said on Wednesday it is starting to fill its expanded Line 3 pipeline with oil, marking the completion of a long-delayed replacement project that will increase the capacity of crude deliveries from Canada to U.S. refineries.

The Canadian pipeline operator said the in-service date of the pipeline is Oct. 1."

My question to you Tom is how could you be so stupid as to buy into Mr. Kennedy's QANON crap?

asmtxhcicoinstaller.dll

Edited November 10, 2021 by nsdp
line 3 story linkdid not paste

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil

WTI crude futures eased below $84 a barrel on Wednesday, snapping a 3-day rally amid loosening inventory levels and a stronger greenback. EIA data showed domestic crude stockpiles added 1 million barrels last week, the third straight week of increases, meaning inventory levels have now reached a 3-month high. On the other hand, American Petroleum Institute data pointed to an unexpected drop in nationwide holdings, although there was a buildup at the key Cushing, Oklahoma storage hub. Meanwhile, the White House said it would not announce a release of stocks from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve after the EIA projected in its Short Term Energy Outlook that the global oil market will become oversupplied and prices will fall by early next year.

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

Irina Slav

Irina is a writer for Oilprice.com with over a decade of experience writing on the oil and gas industry.

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[Boat + 1,323]

Tom lies, but he’s just part of the deep state. Everybody knows the US imports and exports far above their consumption. The US has gas and oil by the wazoo. The US is net FF independent from the rest of the world. So yea, reversing a policy that allows exports would instantly drop consumers price for fuel in the US. We receive millions of barrels of oil per day from the Canadians that we don’t need. The EIA has the complete list by country including the Saudi, Russia, Venezuela, Iraq etc. Kinda like the election, Capital riots and Texas killer policy energy. The far right is full of it.

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

16 hours ago, Boat said:

Tom lies, but he’s just part of the deep state. Everybody knows the US imports and exports far above their consumption. The US has gas and oil by the wazoo. The US is net FF independent from the rest of the world. So yea, reversing a policy that allows exports would instantly drop consumers price for fuel in the US. We receive millions of barrels of oil per day from the Canadians that we don’t need. The EIA has the complete list by country including the Saudi, Russia, Venezuela, Iraq etc. Kinda like the election, Capital riots and Texas killer policy energy. The far right is full of it.

Boat, You really act like a jerk sometimes.  And you know that I don't vote...I'm neither left nor right...I'm a Voluntaryist and as such I hold individual liberty sacred.  Boat, Enjoy those booster shots the rest of your life as the Spike protein proliferates in your body.

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

https://community.oilprice.com/topic/24765-metals-will-be-the-oil-of-the-future-by-alex-kimani/