Peak oil - demand vs production

[topola Fearex 0]

Hi guys,

I write this post to get your opinion on whether you think peak oil will come from the demand side or the production side.

From my point of view, it is quite obvious that this will come from the production side as oil field discovers are more and more rare. Also, I think this will lead to skyrocketing prices in few years (I wrote blog post about it - in French sorry).

But this is not an opinion shared by everyone, as some think that for example that massive use of EV will reduce demand for oil. 

What do you think ?

[turbguy + 1,545]

It seems that "peak oil" from production has never been a problem.  This is not to say it's getting easier/cheaper to produce.  It's just history.

Petroleum used for combustion fuels for ground and even sea transportation will probably decline over the next decade or three.  

Aviation does face a particular problem with a fuel's energy density.  It's hard to beat petroleum on a btu/lb basis.  Nuclear fuel is considerably denser, but let's not let aviation go there just yet. Past efforts did not pan out well.  The massive shielding required was a huge drawback...

Since petroleum is a organic based material, I suspect that genetic engineering breakthroughs may surprise all of us.

[topola Fearex 0]

I wouldn't be so positive in saying that peak oil has never been a problem from an historic perspective. When the US production started declining in the 70's because conventional production has peaked, we had two oil crises (73 and 79). And, in some way, 2008 was another one that has been solved with US shale oil - which also come in limited quantity.

Concerning declining combustion fuel, I agree on a long term perspective but 10 years or 30 years make a big difference if you admit that oil production will peak in less than 10 years. I would say that the core problem.

[Eric Gagen + 713]

Demand side for certain.  Field discoveries is no longer a relevent metric now that shale oil and gas is profitably extracted.  These resources are in large amounts all over the place.  They only have large production figures in the US and Canada thanks to favorable ownership and regulatory structrues, but if the demand were there, it's success in this arena could be repeated in the middle east, in Russia, in South America and probably some other places that aren't as well researched.  

apart from a few high potential deepwater sites, nobody is looking for new fields any longer because it's not worth the trouble.  There is too much readily extractable oil from known fields (especially shale regions) to make it worth the effort.  

[turbguy + 1,545]

6 hours ago, topola Fearex said:

I wouldn't be so positive in saying that peak oil has never been a problem from an historic perspective. When the US production started declining in the 70's because conventional production has peaked, we had two oil crises (73 and 79). And, in some way, 2008 was another one that has been solved with US shale oil - which also come in limited quantity.

Concerning declining combustion fuel, I agree on a long term perspective but 10 years or 30 years make a big difference if you admit that oil production will peak in less than 10 years. I would say that the core problem.

It's gonna be hard to determine when peak oil production will ever be reached, but so far, the supply-demand has being satisfied for years.

 

Edited November 19, 2021 by turbguy

[topola Fearex 0]

Hi guys, thank you for sharing your opinion.

@turbguy do you have a source for your chart by any chance ?