Russia oil production live month after month starting from November 2021 - official stats from Rosstat agency

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Lets start with November 2021 according to Rosstat

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Crude oil production in Russia, excluding gas condensate, was 10.03 million barrels per day in November, and the OPEC + deal was approximately 90% finalized, according to Rosstat data.
"Oil without gas condensate produced 41.6 million tons, which is 9.6% more than in November 2020, but 2.8% less than in October 2021." - reported the service.
Converting this ratio into barrels with the factor 7.23, the average daily oil production in the reporting month was 10.03 million barrels. At the same time, the production target for the Russian Federation in October was 9.913 million barrels per day. Thus, an OPEC + transaction could be completed by around 90%, the data shows.
"Oil production, including gas condensate, in November increased by 9.3% compared to November 2020 and amounted to 44.8 million tonnes. Compared to October 2021, production decreased by 2.7%. During the eleven months of 2021, 478 million tonnes of oil were produced, including gas condensate, which is 1.7% more than in the period January-November 2020, the ministry also notes.

 

Edited December 23, 2021 by Tomasz

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The increase in crude oil resources of the Russian Federation in 2020 has become a record over the last decade due to the increase in the volume of geological exploration, according to the state report "On the state and use of mineral resources of the Russian Federation in 2020" prepared by the Ministry of Natural Resources.
"In 2020, the surplus of the increase in crude oil resources of the A + B1 + C1 category due to exploration and revaluation over the volume of production (production supplementation) amounted to almost 70%; this is due to a sharp drop in production and a significant increase due to exploration. the increase over extraction was 14%. The minimal increase in reserves over the last decade was recorded in 2017, when it only compensated for their decrease by 3%, "the document reads.
The main increase in oil reserves in 2020 in Russia was due to the discovery of the unique resource Zapadno-Irkinskoe (Krasnoyarsk Territory), as well as additional exploration of previously discovered fields in the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug. Yugra, Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, Krasnoyarsk Territory, Orenburg Region and other topics.
"Overall, taking into account all the causes (exploration, revaluation, production and production losses), in 2020 recoverable crude oil resources of the A + B1 + C1 category increased by 324 million tonnes, and the category B2 + C2 - by 288.9 million tone; In 2019, the increase in stocks in categories A + B1 + C1 and B2 + C2 amounted to 74.4 million tonnes and 883.8 million tonnes, respectively, ”the report emphasizes.
In 2019 and 2020, for the first time in the last decade, condensate production was not offset by gains from exploration and revaluation. In total, in 2020, the resources of recoverable condensate, according to preliminary data, decreased: categories A + B1 + C1 - by 89.1 million tons, categories B2 + C2 - by 37.8 million tons. In 2019, the reserves of category A + B1 increased + C1 by 39 million tonnes, categories B2 + C2 - by 41 million tonnes.
The potential to rebuild Russia's liquid hydrocarbon reserves is considerable, emphasizes the Ministry of Natural Resources. The potential resources of crude oil of the D0 category are estimated at 14.45 billion tons, and of condensate at 1.97 billion tons. As a rule, a quarter of them are transferred to industrial categories based on the results of geological surveys. Even more significant are the anticipated resources of crude oil and condensate of the D1 + D2 category, the confirmation of which is much lower, estimated at 41.4 billion tons and 11.2 billion tons, respectively.
About 40% of the promising and almost half of the projected oil resources are concentrated in the West Siberian Oil and Gas Province (OGP), mainly in the Khanty-Mansiysk-Yugra Autonomous Okrug and Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug. Two-thirds of the condensate resources are located here, more than half of which is located in the gas condensate fields of the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous District.
New oil and condensate discoveries are likely in the Leno-Tunguska OGP - in the Krasnoyarsk Territory, the Republic of Sacha (Yakutia) and Irkutsk Oblast, in the OGP Timan-Pechora - in the territory of the Komi Republic and the Nenets Autonomous Okrug. The potential of the continental shelf is significant. The waters of the Caspian, Kara, Black, Barents, Pechora, Chukotka, East Siberian and Laptiev seas are rich in liquid hydrocarbons. According to preliminary estimates, by 2030 the extraction of oil from unconventional sources in Russia may reach 10-20% of the total production in the country, according to the government report "On the state and use of Russian mineral resources in 2020" prepared by the Ministry of Natural Resources.
The Department notes that the role of unconventional sources of hydrocarbon raw materials (HCS) increases year by year, which include deposits with difficult-to-extract resources (TRIZ), characterized by anomalous physicochemical properties (high viscosity, heavy oils and bitumens, oil sands) and accumulations of hydrocarbons with low filtration properties, located in rocks with low permeability and porosity.
“The involvement of unconventional hydrocarbon accumulations in resource development is of particular importance in view of the outlined depletion of more accessible oil reserves. The greatest practical interest is the accumulation of hydrocarbons in high-carbon shale deposits of various compositions, the so-called "Shale" oil fields. Fundamentally different solutions are required for their development. It was in the development of shale deposits that a technological breakthrough was made in the last decade, mainly in the United States - emphasizes the report.
According to the Energy Information Administration of the International Energy Agency (IEA), technically recoverable shale oil reserves in the world amount to 345 billion barrels. Russia ranks first (75 billion barrels) on the list of countries with the largest reserves, followed by the United States (58 billion barrels) and China (32 billion barrels).In Russia, high-carbon shale deposits have been identified in the West Siberian Oil and Gas Province (OGP) (Bazhenov and Abalak Formations), OGP Volga-Ural and Timan-Pechora (Domanik Formation), Ciscaucasion Valley (Suite Kumskaja and NGP Eastern Horizon) ( Kuonamskaya and Inikanskaya formations).
“All major Russian oil companies show interest in the development of domestic shale deposits. In Western Siberia, work is underway to study the geological structure of deposits, and research is being conducted on the development of technologies for extracting oil from such deposits. It is estimated that by 2030 oil extraction from unconventional sources may reach 10-20% of (total) Russia, ”the report emphasizes.

Edited December 23, 2021 by Tomasz

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Prey defines consciousness

Dmitry Kozlov on the specifics of the development of Russian oilmen

In 2022, Russian oil workers are preparing to restore production to pre-dock levels and capitalize on rising prices that may return to 2012 levels. Horror stories about the energy transition, which significantly influenced the policy of Western majors and turned them away from new investments in Russia, according to the observations of the business department observer Dmitry Kozlov, did not affect the strategies of domestic players in any way.

The oil industry lived very calmly in 2021, smoothly recovering production and profits following the increase in OPEC + quotas and the rise in oil prices. The latter, however, did not even increase as much as one would expect - by only 50%, while the prices of coal and gas soared significantly. The fact that OPEC + still has more than 3 million barrels per day of idle capacity, which should be launched during 2022, is holding back the growth of quotations.

The main question for Russian oilmen is now the same as for the global industry: what happens when the OPEC + deal, which seemed to be eternal, is completed.

A year ago it seemed that the surplus of supply on the oil market would persist for many years. Now oil producers are making more and more arguments as to why its price should rise, pointing to the underinvestment in the industry over the past five years, which will not meet the growing demand.

Even Russian companies with their relatively low production costs in 2022 will have to make extraordinary efforts to reach the production level of 2019: free production capacity has been exhausted. In mid-November, the vice-president of Rosneft, Otabek Karimov, allowed the price to rise to $ 120 per barrel, and large Western investment banks have similar scenarios.

The last time the prices were like this was exactly ten years ago, in 2012. It was then that Russian oilmen thought about the development of the Arctic shelf in detail, and Rosneft agreed to purchase TNK-BP. Now the growth of production in the Russian Federation is possible only on the basis of our own resources.

The energy transition has already made the industry toxic to large Western investors even more so than the 2014 sanctions.

In 2021, the first alarm bells sounded when a court in The Hague ordered Shell, a key foreign partner of Gazprom Neft, to cut carbon emissions by 45% by 2030. This may not only restrict the development of new projects in the Russian Federation, but in theory also entail a withdrawal from existing assets. Another example concerns Rosneft's partner, the American ExxonMobil: its minority shareholder, Engine No.1 hedge fund, which is actively promoting the ESG agenda, appointed several people to the board of directors, which forced the company to announce a policy to reduce CO2 emissions. The Spanish Repsol, which announced the same goals, recently decided to withdraw from its assets in the Russian Federation.

The virtual impossibility of finding major foreign partners makes Russian players try to cooperate with each other. Gazprom Neft and LUKOIL have already set up a parity joint venture to develop the Tazovskoye field in Yamal. Indeed, unlike European majors, Russian oil companies are not going to abandon their previous plans to increase oil production. The strategy adjustments announced this year are only nuanced.

LUKOIL expects acceleration of inflation due to energy transition

Thus, Gazprom Neft plans to increase the share of gas in its production, which has a smaller carbon footprint. LUKOIL, which has a large oil refining business in Europe, intends to invest in renewable energy generation there. However, this does not prevent the company from acquiring oil and gas assets in other regions - for example, in Azerbaijan, where LUKOIL has increased its stake in the Shah Deniz project.

The skeptical attitude of Russian oil workers to the energy transition is understandable and, at least in the foreseeable future, looks justified: in the coming years the world will face a shortage rather than a surplus of oil. However, the environmental agenda will not disappear so easily, and companies will have to gradually adapt to it, especially if the EU carbon tax initiative leads to more or less universal charging for CO2 emissions. So far, the methods proposed to solve the problem - hydrogen production and CO2 injection into the reservoir - look technologically and economically ambiguous.

Moreover, in contrast to European colleagues, the Russian oil and gas business in this respect would be naive to expect substantial assistance from the state. The latter has its own problems associated with the energy transition - Finance Minister Anton Siluanov has already called for an increase in reserves in the NWF to 10% of GDP under the pretext that tax revenues from oil and gas will begin to decline in the early 2030s. If oil prices rise significantly in 2022, it cannot be ruled out that the authorities will undertake a new preemptive attack on oil revenues - recently, the logic of tax exemptions has little to do with the immediate needs of the budget.

 

Dmitry Kozlov, observer of the business department of Kommersant

https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5152769

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In December, oil production in Russia increased by 8.4%

In December 2021, the production of oil with gas condensate in Russia amounted to 46.11 million tons, which is 8.4% more than in December 2020. This is reported by "Interfax" with reference to the operational summary of the Central Dispatch Office of the Fuel and Energy Complex.

In 2021, the production of oil with gas condensate in the country amounted to 524.05 million tons (+ 2.2% to the previous one, adjusted for a leap year).

Exports of crude oil to non-CIS countries last year decreased by 2.2%. It amounted to 214.4 million tons.

Gas production in December amounted to 69.03 billion cubic meters. m (+ 3.3%), in 2021 - increased by 10%, to 762.3 billion cubic meters. m.

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When the troubles in Kasachstan prolong we will have more spikes with Oil prices and especially Uran. Kasachstan delivers 40% worldwide.

Most European Countries split Gas and Oil. Oil from Kasachstan and Gas from Russia.

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The average daily production of oil with condensate in Russia in the first nine days of January 2022 amounted to 1,500.8 thousand tons, which is 13.3 thousand tons more than in the same period in the previous month (0.9% higher ), according to the statistics that Interfax got acquainted with.

Meanwhile, under the terms of the OPEC + deal, the Russian Federation from January can increase production by 100 thousand b / d (approximately 1%) of oil (condensate is not taken into account in the transaction) - up to 10 million 122 thousand b / d

.In November, according to available data, the daily production of condensate in Russia amounted to 111 thousand tons.

Statistics for January and December are not yet available. 

Thus, even if we assume that in January the Russian Federation retained its condensate production, the average daily production of oil alone amounted to 1,390.8 thousand tons, which, with a bbl factor of 7.22 (varies depending on the types of oil in the basket), is 10 million barrels per day. s, that is, the deal is overfulfilled by about 10%.

In total, Russian oil companies in January increased the average daily production of oil with condensate by 0.7% - up to 1,181.4 thousand tons.

http://www.finmarket.ru/news/5623659

[Andrew Neopalimy + 14]

On 07.01.2022 at 22:51, Starschy said:

Когда проблемы в Казахстане затянутся, у нас будет больше скачков цен на нефть и особенно на Уран. Казахстан поставляет 40% по всему миру.

Большинство европейских стран разделяют газ и нефть. Нефть из Казахстана и газ из России.

Kazakhstan has uranium ore, but there is no uranium enrichment in uranium - it is up to 95% Russia (Rosatom. UEKhK)))).
But everything will be calm in Kazakhstan - one of the points of the CIA-Mi-6-Mossad plan (terrorist attack of dikhadists) consisted in the seizure, accident at the joint Kazakh-Chinese enterprise Ulba-TVS LLP (Kazakhstan) - CGNPC-URC ( China). To which on November 16, 2021, the Ural Electrochemical Plant (UEKhK, Russia) officially shipped a batch of highly enriched uranium for Chinese nuclear power plants (or maybe not, or maybe not high- but low-enriched))), the sintering period of fuel pellets is 40-50 days .. ...
REFERENCE
The Ulba-TVS plant and the city of Ust-Kamenogorsk (Kazakhstan) in the fall were secretly taken under the control and protection of special forces units of the RF Armed Forces. At the end of December 2021, there was an increase ... today there is a "fortified orion" with a complex of protection and defense ...)))

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Novak predicted the level of oil production in Russia

Novak: Russian oil production in January will be 10.1 million barrels per day

MOSCOW, Jan 14 - PRIME.  Oil production in Russia in January will amount to 10.1 million barrels per day, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said.

When asked how much daily oil production is expected in Russia in January, Novak said: "10.1 (million barrels per day - ed.), January."

He also explained that the strain of the coronavirus "omicron" less than previous strains affects the demand for oil in the world, which determines the decisions of the OPEC + alliance on production volumes.

“In my opinion, today we see that any new wave of the pandemic is, let’s say, more gently regulated by the government. And this does not particularly affect demand, although it could be even higher, but, nevertheless, those the growth rates that we see are quite so smooth and therefore OPEC + makes monthly decisions to increase production," the Deputy Prime Minister added.

The OPEC+ alliance has reduced its production by 9.7 million barrels per day since May last year due to a drop in oil demand caused by the coronavirus pandemic. As the situation stabilized, the deal was adjusted. And since August 2021, the alliance has been increasing production by 400 thousand barrels per day every month, hoping to gradually withdraw from its obligations by the end of September 2022. In February, OPEC + decided to increase production by another 400,000 barrels per day.

Novak, commenting on the earlier decision of the alliance, noted that OPEC + does not see any danger in the "omicron", however, there is uncertainty associated with the further spread of the strain.

MARKET SITUATION

The Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation considers the situation on the Russian fuel market to be stable.

"We assess the situation as stable, the headquarters with the participation of companies under the leadership of the Ministry of Energy and with the participation of the Federal Antimonopoly Service is constantly working," Novak told reporters, answering a question about the situation on the fuel market.

According to him, in winter there is a need to strictly monitor the production and volume of diesel fuel stocks, and in summer - motor gasoline, and the government is constantly doing this.

The price of winter diesel fuel on the St. Petersburg International Commodity Exchange (SPIMEX) reached a record high of 65,771 rubles on Tuesday. Then it declined for two trading sessions in a row, and on Friday rose by 0.9% and stopped at around 65,169 rubles. The cost of AI-92 gasoline on the stock exchange increased on the last day of the week by 1.3% - up to 52,541 rubles, and AI-95 - by 1%, up to 55,304 rubles.

The Russian Ministry of Energy explained the rise in prices by the fact that market participants increased fuel purchases due to the past period of the New Year holidays, as well as the last week of December, when the exchange did not work. To stabilize prices on Thursday, the ministry and the Federal Antimonopoly Service published a draft joint order to increase the standard for sales of gasoline on the exchange from 11% to 12%, and diesel fuel from 7.5% to 8.5% of total production.

https://1prime.ru/energy/20220114/835781187.html

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Russia's GDP growth in 2021, according to preliminary estimates, could be about 4.4-4.5%, Economic Development Minister Maxim Reshetnikov told reporters on the sidelines of the Gaidar Forum.

 

According to him, for January-November 2021, growth was estimated higher - at the level of 4.7% compared to the same period in 2020, but then Rosstat revised the data for 2020 (thus slightly raising the base), when the economic decline was 2.7% , and not 3.0%, as originally thought.

 

The growth forecast for 2022, as Reshetnikov said, the Ministry of Economic Development now maintains at the level of 3.0%. Such growth, according to the minister, will also be facilitated by the completion of the OPEC+ deal this year, which could add up to 0.8 percentage points. in economic growth.

 

"Rosstat recalculated the base for 2020 (the decline in Russia's GDP was 2.7% instead of 3.0% according to the previous estimate), while not recalculating the monthly data. Therefore, it is obvious that the annual estimate for 2021 will be lower than 4.7% ( the ministry's estimate of GDP growth for January-November 2021 compared to January-November 2020. A very preliminary estimate of GDP growth for 2021 based on this is 4.4-4.5%," the minister said.

 

"Forecast for this year on growth is now retaining 3%. The schedule will be specified in April," he added.

 

"This year there is a certain reserve associated with OPEC + (completion of this deal and an increase in production), which can give an additional up to 0.8 percentage points in growth (of the economy) this year compared to 2021," he explained Reshetnikov is confident that the economy will grow by 3% this year.

 

In November 2021, the Russian GDP, according to the Ministry of Economic Development, grew by 5.2% in annual terms after increasing by 4.8% in October. In general, for January-November 2021, the ministry estimated the growth of the RF GDP at 4.7% compared to the same period in 2020.

 

The official forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development for the growth of the Russian GDP in 2021 was 4.2%. Reshetnikov predicted in mid-December the growth of Russia's GDP in 2021 at a rate of at least 4.3%.

 

In 2022-2024, the ministry expects the growth of the Russian economy at the level of 3.0% per year.

 

The Central Bank predicted the growth of Russia's GDP "about 4.5%" in 2021, growth in the range of 2.0-3.0% per year in 2022-2024.

 

The consensus forecast of analysts polled by Interfax at the end of December is 4.4% for GDP growth in 2021, and 2.4% for 2022.

 

According to Rosstat, Russia's GDP in the 3rd quarter of 2021 grew by 4.3% compared to July-September 2020. Relative to the 3rd quarter of "pre-Covid" 2019, GDP in July-September of this year grew by 0.6%. GDP in January-September 2021 increased by 4.6% compared to the same period in 2020.

 

Russian President Vladimir Putin at the annual press conference held on December 23 said that Russia's GDP growth in 2021 is expected at 4.5%. Putin noted that the Russian economy in 2021 recovered from the recession in 2020 "much faster than other countries."

 

The head of the Russian government, Mikhail Mishustin, in a video greeting to the participants of the Gaidar Forum "Russia and the World: Priorities" said on Thursday that the period of adaptation of the Russian economy to the challenges of the pandemic is over. The next task is to grow the economy at an average rate of at least 3% per year to achieve national development goals, he stressed.

 

"The Russian economy recovered faster than expected. Already in the 2nd quarter, our gross domestic product reached pre-pandemic levels. In general, for the year we reached fairly high values in key GDP parameters, industrial production, and cargo transportation. Employment recovered relatively quickly, and a stable domestic demand. A favorable picture has emerged for traditional Russian exports," the prime minister said.

http://www.finmarket.ru/main/article/5627590

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Oilmen will get rich with the rise in oil prices and the weak ruble

Oil quotes rose to their highest since 2014, and investment bank Goldman Sachs predicted a rise in oil prices to almost $100 within a year. At the same time, the growth in oil prices could not support the ruble exchange rate, which is weakening due to geopolitical factors. Against this background, Russian oil companies will find themselves in a winning situation: if Goldman Sachs' forecast comes true, Rosneft, LUKOIL and Gazprom Neft can increase revenue and EBITDA in rubles by more than a third. However, other analysts adhere to more conservative forecasts.

Oil prices topped $87 a barrel for the first time since October 2014, supported by rising geopolitical tensions. The day before, Yemeni Houthi militants launched drone strikes on targets in the UAE, including the infrastructure of the local oil company ADNOC. It was at this moment that analysts at Goldman Sachs, whose estimates of the oil market are among the most respected among investment banks, announced a sharp increase in their forecast for the average oil price in 2022 - from $80 per barrel to $96 per barrel. The new assessment is based on a possible shortage of supply in the market, since the impact of the Omicron strain on consumption turned out to be much weaker than expected, and OPEC +, despite the formal increase in production quotas by 400,000 b/d per month, is not able to increase production in practice in accordance with this plan.

If this forecast turns out to be correct, Russia's largest oil companies could achieve record-breaking financial results, thanks in part to the ruble's depreciation in recent months. So, for example, at an oil price of $96 per barrel, LUKOIL's revenue could reach 12.5 trillion rubles in 2022. (+38% year-on-year), EBITDA - 1.8 trillion (+33%), estimates Dmitry Marinchenko from Fitch. The performance of other Russian oil companies would improve in similar proportions, which would be an absolute maximum and would allow to pay record high dividends, the analyst believes.

Rosneft, LUKOIL and Gazprom Neft have not yet reported financial results for 2021. Analysts at SberCIB Investment Research expect Rosneft's revenue to grow to $122.63 billion (9.1 trillion rubles at the exchange rate at the end of the year), EBITDA to $32.57 (2.4 trillion rubles). LUKOIL is expected to increase its revenue to $125.7 billion (9.3 trillion rubles), EBITDA to $18.77 billion (1.4 trillion rubles). As for Gazprom Neft, its revenue for the year is expected to be $40.6 billion (3 trillion rubles), EBITDA - $10.6 billion (787 billion rubles).

However, many analysts are more reserved about oil price forecasts for this year than Goldman Sachs. Thus, Fitch expects that the average price this year will be at the level of last year - about $70 per barrel. SberCIB Investment Research analysts assume an average oil price of $73 per barrel (+5% by 2021) in 2022. Such a price increase will increase Rosneft's revenue, EBITDA and net income by 10%, 7% and 18%, respectively. For Gazprom Neft, the growth will be 16%, 13% and 16%, for LUKOIL - 7%, 7% and 13%, respectively.

Among oil companies, Rosneft called a radical forecast for an increase in the price of oil at the end of 2021. As Otabek Karimov, vice president of the company, stated at the international forum of the Moscow Exchange, the price could reach $120 per barrel by the end of the first half of 2022. In mid-December, LUKOIL predicted the price of oil in 2022 at about $60-80 per barrel. “I expect that oil prices will be in the range that is comfortable for both consumers and producers. Short-term jumps are possible, but in general, this figure will be maintained in the coming year, ”said Leonid Fedun, vice president of the company.

https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5172274

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In 2022, we expect the average increase in crude oil and condensate production in the RUSSIAN federation by 8% ... (11.4 million barrels of oil equivalent at the end of 2022)" - reads the expert's presentation presented at the online conference "The three unknown equation: Russia's economic growth in 2022 and its dependence on oil, sanctions, and world war inflation."

The analyst explained that in 2021, the increase in production for the Russian oil and gas industry was limited by the OPEC + agreement. The main increase is expected in 2022. "We believe that the increase in production in Russia will continue around August, after which the volume of production will be 11.4 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, which is around pre-crisis levels, but not a record level" - said Bulansky.

According to the analyst, the probability of reaching a historic high in the range in the second half is quite high, though not a scenario.
Burgansky added that this level could rise in the long run. This is related to the putting into operation of new deposits, first of all, the "Rosneft" and "East Oil" projects. However, this field will only be able to provide a significant contribution to the total production volume from 2025-2026 years, and until then there will be a balance between reducing production in existing oil fields and introducing new ones.

"This means that between the period of significant growth expected this year and 2025-2026, the production volume in Russia will most likely remain stable" - said the expert.

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The average price of Urals crude oil, the main Russian export commodity, rose 1.6 times in January 2022 compared to the same period last year, reaching $ 85.64 a barrel, according to data from the Ministry of Finance of the RUSSIAN Federation.
"The average price of Urals crude oil in January 2022 was USD 85.64 per barrel, that at 1.6 is higher than in January 2021 (USD 54.41 per barrel)" - reads the materials on the Ministry's website .
Based on the results for 2021, the average price of Urals was $ 69 per barrel, which turned out to be 1.7 times the 2020 level, the Ministry of Finance said.
World oil prices in 2021 were mainly rising. At the beginning of 2022, Brent crude oil was traded at long-term highs and already exceeds USD 90 per barrel.

As reported by RIA novosti in the international price agency Argus, the price of Urals in January exceeds $ 90 per barrel, bargaining on the maximum values from October 2014.

[Tomasz + 1,608]

Sport OPEC cutter + delayed increase in output
Top oil producers this week will discuss a new quota boost. In practice, however, most OPEC + members are no longer able to perform them. In particular, Russia is gradually lagging behind Saudi Arabia in terms of the pace of increasing production, and it will hardly be able to regain the surplus production level by summer, as is the OPEC + transaction itself. Experts expect RUSSIA to be able to achieve this only by the end of the year.
On February 2, the OPEC + countries will discuss the course of the transaction to limit production, under which, from August 2021, every month, they must increase the offer to 400,000. barrels per day (b / z). Since then, the settings have not been changed, although most of the participants in the agreement can no longer increase production with specific rates: probably only Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Iraq choose their quotas. In December, during the formal increase in the total amount of OPEC + to 400 thousand. b / from production increased only to 260 thousand. b / c. As a result of the supply shortage, oil prices in January exceeded $ 90 per barrel.
Russia is among the countries that have problems with increasing production.
Already in December, the country is not fully selecting its allocation (an increase by 100,000 b / month), and in January it could fall behind by 11%, according to the calculations of "Interfax". The quota of the RUSSIAN federation in January is 10.12 million b / s.
At the end of December, the managers of the Russian oil companies spoke about the current terms of the transaction. "At the moment there is no reason to change these solutions, which have already been taken" - said the head of "Gazprom oil" Alexander Dukov. "The price is stable, it is not rising, so this is the amount that allows us to meet the needs," said the head of Lukoil Vagit Alekperov last month.
The Russian oil companies of 2020 against the background of the pandemic to limit drilling investments due to the fall in oil prices, as well as the need to participate in the OPEC + transaction, of which they had to stop and already existing wells. Now, the gradual exit from the deal and the increase in oil prices should stimulate oil workers to increase drilling, however, it takes time to increase production (see "B" from November 25, 2021). In the secretariat of Deputy Prime Minister Aleksander Nowak do not comment on the topic.
Russia may actually be a bit behind the schedule of increasing production: there is almost no spare capacity at Russian companies, and drilling must be intensified in order for it to appear, believes Dmitry Marinchenko from Fitch.
In his opinion, based on the results of the year, production may be slightly less than in the year 2019, when it was around 10.5 million b / s.
Analysts of "VTB Capital" in their January review state that it will be difficult for the Russian nephews to reach their quotas in line with the growing OPEC + schedule and to go into production once at 10.4 million b / s after the end of the transaction in the summer. According to their estimates, production will reach this level only by the end of the year, and the average annual figure amounts to 10.2 million barrels per year, which is an increase of 6% year on year.
Crude oil production in Russia in January increased compared to December, which allowed RUSSIA to execute the OPEC + recovery plan in January (+100 thousand b / z for Russia), believes that Marina Мосоян of Vygon Consulting. But she points out that in December, oil production in Russia did not increase compared to the previous month, and even fell a little, which explains the delay in the increase in the amount.
In her opinion, as oil demand recovers, production will also increase, but at a slower pace, and production backlogs during the easing of OPEC + restrictions may last at least until the middle of the year.
Among the factors that affect the pace of production growth, the expert named the temporary costs of drilling and the introduction of new wells, the risk of economic losses in the event of a drop in demand, and the high price of the raw material, which is "for oil companies". The implementation of OPEC + recovery plans in the middle of the year to a sub-pandemic level in the case of Russia is unlikely, says Mossoyan.
It is estimated that Vygon Consulting, Russian oil companies will be able to achieve overhead oil production rates of 10.5 million b / s only by the end of 2022. At this rate of recovery, total crude oil production at the end of the year could amount to 514 million tonnes, or approximately 550 million tonnes, including gas condensate.

Edited February 1, 2022 by Tomasz

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The volume of oil and gas condensate production in Russia in January 2022 increased by 7.9% compared to the same period in 2021 and amounted to 46.53 million tons, according to the operational report of the CDU TEK. Average daily production is fixed at 11 million barrels.

 

Since the beginning of the year, Rosneft has produced 14.31 million tons, LUKOIL - 6.82 million tons, Surgutneftegaz - 5.17 million tons, Gazprom Neft - 3.28 million tons, Tatneft - 2 .44 million tons, Bashneft - 1.63 million tons, Slavneft - 990.1 thousand tons, NOVATEK - 660.18 thousand tons, RussNeft - 587.86 thousand tons.

 

The CDU TEK still takes into account the production of Bashneft separately, despite the fact that since 2016 the company has been part of PJSC NK Rosneft.

 

Other subsoil users, including Gazprom and joint ventures with foreign investments, produced 7.83 million tons of oil and gas condensate in the first month of this year.

 

PSA operators produced 1.4 million tons of crude oil during the specified period.

 

Oil export

 

The export of Russian oil to non-CIS countries in January 2022 amounted to 19.76 million tons, which is 13.3% higher than the same indicator in 2021, according to the operational report of the CDU TEK. Average daily exports are fixed at 4.67 million barrels.

 

In the first month of this year, a total of 17.4 million tons of crude oil was exported to non-CIS countries through the oil pipeline system of Transneft (of which 16.17 million tons are Russian resources), bypassing Transneft - 3.59 million tons.

 

In January, 19.76 million tons of Russian crude oil were exported to non-CIS countries. Average daily exports amounted to 4.67 million barrels.

 

Since the beginning of the year, 3.69 million tons of Russian crude oil have been shipped through the port of Primorsk through the Transneft system, MNT Kozmino - 3.14 million tons, SMP Ust-Luga - 1.9 million tons, Novorossiysk - 677.86 thousand tons.

 

In January 2022, Rosneft exported 8.5 million tons to non-CIS countries via the Transneft system, Surgutneftegaz - 2.71 million tons, LUKOIL - 1.9 million tons, Gazprom Neft - 932 .28 thousand tons, Tatneft - 230 thousand tons.

 

In the first month of this year, enterprises that are not part of vertically integrated oil companies shipped 1.77 million tons of oil to non-CIS countries via the Transneft system.

 

The transit of Kazakhstan in January 2022 amounted to 1.07 million tons, Azerbaijan - 79.9 thousand tons, Turkmenistan - 79.89 thousand tons.

 

Russian oil companies in January 2022 reduced oil supplies to neighboring countries by 64.1% to 461.44 thousand tons.

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Crude oil production in Russia, excluding gas condensate, amounted to 10.03 million barrels per day in December, the OPEC + deal was finalized by around 99%, according to Rosstat data.
"Oil without gas condensate was produced 43 million tons, which is 9.2% more than in December 2020 and 3.5% more than in November 2021." - reported the service.
Converting this ratio into barrels with the factor 7.23, the average daily oil production in the reporting month was 10.03 million barrels. At the same time, the production target for the Russian Federation in December was 10.018 million barrels per day. Thus, the OPEC + transaction could be completed by around 99%, the data shows.
“Crude oil production, including gas condensate, in December increased by 8.6% compared to December 2020 and amounted to 46.2 million tonnes. Compared to November 2021, production increased by 3.6%. Gas condensate, i.e. 2.1% more than in 2020, the ministry also notes.
It follows that the average daily production of oil and gas condensate in the Russian Federation in December was about 10.92 million barrels per day (converted into 7.33 for liquid hydrocarbons), and for the whole year - 10.52 million barrels per day.
OPEC + cut production by 9.7 million barrels a day in May 2020 due to a decline in oil demand caused by the coronavirus pandemic. Now the alliance is increasing production by 400,000. barrels per day every month, counting on a gradual withdrawal from the obligation to limit production by the end of September 2022.
The deal is oil only, no condensate. The Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation has repeatedly emphasized that the methodology for calculating OPEC + indicators for the countries of the agreement is based on a wide range of data, and the ministry itself uses different conversion factors for various areas.