Europe gas market -how it started how its going

[ronwagn + 6,290]

4 minutes ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Just wondering... Do you get paid to write these multiple treatises everyday?   You must.  No sane person has this much time on their hands. 

Andrei is fairly consistent though and not nasty about it. He says he likes a little meth so is hard to keep up with as far as my time goes. I cover a lot of other subjects too. 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

1 minute ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Why would I blame Demonrats?  They are doing what they SAY they are going to do.  Steal and destroy.  Rhinos on the other hand SAY they are going to do something and instead do the opposite, lining their pockets. 

As for the rest... that is a religious issue.  Politics flows from religion.  Demonrats are just following their Atheist religion morals.  You want things to change?  Change peoples religion and hunt down and lambast all the openly perverted hypocrites.  Otherwise, stop wasting your time.  Its religion that is the problem, not politics.

Well, religion is my most important concern. I am a perpetual optimist and rely on the Holy Spirit. I know that all things will work out well in the end and according to God's purpose. Still, I think that people need good, clean, abundant energy, fuel, electricity etc. to power their inventions and provide everyone with a decent standard of living. 

What I see, worldwide is fascism taking power in virtually every nation. It is the same as what the communists call communism or socialism. It is afraid of religion, aside from the Muslims who are often only adherents in name, not in reality. Religion is subjugated to the state and constitutions are ignored. I see America as at great risk of becoming just another failed state if we do not work as hard as we can to save her. 

My definition of fascism is crony capitalism plus statism. The state is preeminent but to varying degrees.

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

47 minutes ago, Tomasz said:

America liquefies the last New LNG projects are ending in the US

In February, against the background of rising world gas prices, the United States will launch two new large LNG projects - the sixth line of Sabine Pass and part of the capacity of Calcasieu Pass, which, according to the plan, should reach its design capacity later this year. As a result, about 15 million tons of LNG per year will enter the market, but the vast majority of these volumes have already been contracted. The next LNG project in the US will not be launched until 2024, which limits the country's ability to influence global prices in the short term.

In February, the first new LNG capacity since March 2021 will start operating in the United States. So, on February 7, Cherniere announced the completion of commissioning at the sixth line of the Sabine Pa plant with a capacity of 5.7 million tons per year. Simultaneously, on Feb. 4, Venture Global, which is building a Calcasieu Pass plant in Louisiana, asked the regulator for approval for the first shipment, which, according to Platts, could take place on Feb. 9. Initially, only four of the planned 18 lines of 0.6 million tons each will be put into operation.

These plants are the latest of the so-called second wave of US LNG projects (the first wave was in 2016-2018). Thus, at the moment, seven plants will operate in the United States: in addition to Sabine Pass (total capacity of 34.6 million tons) and Calcasieu Pass (12 million tons), these are Cove Point (5.75 million tons), Elba (2.7 million tons), Corpus Christi (18.2), Cameron (15) and Freeport LNG (16.2).

Although there are more than a dozen more projects in the advanced stages of development in the United States, only one is under construction - Golden Pass with a capacity of 18 million tons, which is owned by Exxon and Qatar Petroleum JV. Its launch date is 2024–2025.

Thus, in the next three years, the US will not offer the world market new volumes of gas.

This is a significant circumstance given the current high gas prices, which are about $1,000 per 1,000 cubic meters for LNG spot shipments both in Europe and Asia. It also limits the ability of Europe, where European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on February 7 called the lack of additional supplies from Gazprom "a strange way of doing business" to replace Russian gas.

New American plants have a fairly significant capacity, but since the commissioning of new assets was expected by the market, they will not lead to a significant reduction in quotations over the next few months, says Ivan Timonin, a consultant at Vygon Consulting. “Most likely, growth in demand for LNG, especially in Asia, will completely absorb these volumes,” agrees Dmitry Marinchenko from Fitch. However, Sergey Kapitonov from the Skolkovo Moscow School of Energy Energy Center reminds that the increase in demand in Asia this year may not be as significant, and the European gas market is likely to shrink due to high prices and competition from coal. “Therefore, the new LNG supply could put downward pressure on prices starting in the second half of 2022,” he said.

LNG imports to Europe hit a historical record

Ivan Timonin notes that the capacities of Calcasieu Pass are almost completely contracted, Venture Global has contracts for 9.5 million tons per year, including five contracts for a total of 7 million tons per year, which have been in force since this year, the rest - from 2023. The sixth line of Sabine Pass, according to him, is contracted at the level of 70-90%, “however, in the current conditions of high demand, incomplete contracting will not become an obstacle to the work of the new stage of the plant, and all remaining production capacities will probably be used by Cheniere for deliveries on the terms spot".

In the coming year, the United States will bring almost 15 million tons of new LNG capacities to the market - this is the vast majority of the new supply, Sergey Kapitonov states. As early as 2022, projects such as Eni's floating plant in Mozambique and the third phase of BP's Tangguh plant in Indonesia could deliver new volumes to the market.

https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5205610?from=top_main_8

Arctic LNG 2 is coming up 2023, 2024 and 2025

https://totalenergies.com/news/arctic-lng-2-ambitious-gas-project-russia

only 60% of the product is Russian-owned.

The longer term plan is to have the capacity of some 140 Mtpa by 2035

https://warsawinstitute.org/russia-reveals-ambitious-plans-lng-sector/

on expectations of global demand for LNG going from 360 Mtpa to 700 Mtpa by 2040.

Qatar is doing something similar. Expected to up the capacity to 110 Mtpa by 2026 already, up from 77 now.

US is probably relatively disinterested because they could just as well use the extra gas domestically.

The Russian and Qatari new projects are supposed to be competitors for lowest breakeven price ever, according to the Polish article.

Since I don't really see a space for 140 on Yamal, there is this elephant in the room in form of Vostok Oil (by Rosneft) This project is supposedly a go, now that Russia came out a tentative winner in a 3-way price war between US shale, Russia and Saudis. (Have demontrated an ability to run indefinitely at a price levels of $35-$40/brl without making losses.

Overview

https://arctic-russia.ru/en/project/world-class-cluster/

Now, let's look at the lesser known natgas component of the project.

This in the spirit of Taimir being the new Yamal. As you can, it happens to actually be about equidistant from Western Europe and East Asia (in fact, does the actual bijection of the Eurasian continent in equally long parts run through the river Yenisey in Krasnoyarsk krai)

Also note, that gasification of Krasnoyarsk region by itself is a high priority national project earmarked for 2022-2023 completion. Which is normally understood as a redirection of West Siberian and Yamal fields now supplying Europe towards PofS 2 (aka "the Mongolian route")

Now, this Chinese article from 2019

https://www.spglobal.com/platts/ko/market-insights/latest-news/natural-gas/120219-russia-starts-gas-deliveries-to-china-via-power-of-siberia

Which shows the patch to Krasnoyarsk already in construction.as of then. Now, all we have to do is to correlate map1 showing a pipeline in construction terminating in Norilsk and map3 terminating in whole two points labeled Krasnoyarsk. (The left one appears to be the town of Achinsk, best known for a major aluminum smelter)

See how the Krasnoyarsk appears to be almost on the coast? Nope. (1501 km to Norilsk only, or 1462 from Achinsk) Without officially leaving the Krasnoyarsk 'burbs. Darn, what an odd place Motherland really is! On the positive note - this is less than half the distance of some 3968 km cited for Power of Siberia 2 China to Yamal.

Should Rosneft be so inclined to get into gas pipeline business. (De jure, they may do so within Russia, Gazprom monopoly only applies to export) Were the EU's "unbundling" requirements in good faith, this could be a potential way to satisfy them. (They aren't, of course)

Now, there is a potentially exotic option. Tuns out this Achinsk place is pretty much on the major and navigable river Ob, which does drain at Yamal, after all. See

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chulym_(Ob)

This got me thinking. Wouldn't it be faster, if they thought of dumping the pipe into the river? The original NS2 built speed (while there were still professionals doing it) was 3+ km a day. Which seems kinda snappy. Faster than on land? Found this source

https://pipeline-threats.com/plthreats/qr-2-1/

Which explains how onshore pipelines are build by "spreads" of about 300 workers, forming an assembly line of repeating steps and moving 1-3 km a day. Unfortunately, they don't say how much faster I can get by making a longer assembly line. You are welcome to enlighten me on that?

Well, can I get a sea-sized pipelaying crane ship into the river Ob? Yes, I can! It is known to be navigable by nuclear icebreakers Taymir and Vaygach, which have a "reduced draft"  mode of 7.5m (down from 9 full) The pipelaying cranes, regardless of size, seem to be oscillating between about 6 and 9m draft, depending on how large a cache of pipe segments they have onboard. Hypothetically, should go even faster in a river, because it is even shallower and less stormy than even the Baltic (which is quite a poodle)

Decided to check the bridge situation. There turns out to be a plenty, but largely in one place, Novosibirsk. What? 3rd or 4th largest city in Russia, very high value target.

OK, now I find this.

https://www.gem.wiki/Novosibirsk-Barnaul_Gas_Pipeline and

https://www.gem.wiki/Barnaul-Biysk-Gorno-Altaysk_Gas_Pipeline

what the hell? This is the old (pre-Mongolian PofS2 route, aka the "Altai Pipeline") These have relatively small listed capacity, but maybe this is just how much they move to supply two relatively minor towns. A stone throw from the Chinese border. Already operating since 2006!

Now, note that there is a connection to the

https://www.gazprom.com/projects/kovyktinskoye/

Field somehow scheduled for 2022. This is officially part of original PofS1 works! So,

Gentlemen, the unofficial date of delivery for the interconnect of Gazprom European network with PofS1, PofS2 and PofS3 seems to be 2022!!!

OK, what about Taimir developments of Rosneftes? Urengoy is certainly connected all the way to Europe already. Let's check

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vankor_Field

Bingo! Paydirt! Apparently, Putin visited the place in 2009 and  made a then-mysterious proclamation of it getting connected to the Baltic and China at once. There is a Transneft oil  pipeline, however the natural gas there belongs to Lukoil, all of a sudden, according to this deal.

https://web.archive.org/web/20160303212246/http://www.oilvoice.com/n/Lukoil_and_Rosneft_Sign_Longterm_Cooperation_Deal/c542d64b1.aspx

(Also note the beautiful "unbundling" scheme of the KNK pipeline, which is how you get any oil out of Kazakhstan. I think it is the only oil pipeline through Russia which is not operated by Transneft monopoly. So, this could also be done for gas, if really needed be)

However, we have thus established that Rosneft is not that interested in gas pipelining inside Russia, but actually in LNG. Informed Polish, again

https://warsawinstitute.org/rosneft-plans-oil-production-taymyr-peninsula/

And finally, some really informed people with a breakdown of how they intend to get to 140 Mtpa

https://hsfnotes.com/energy/2021/05/21/russia-announces-its-global-lng-ambitions/

Now, adding all of those up, I get 205-220 Mtpa, not 140. What if we throw out ridiculously sized projects (30-50 Mpta, with all of Russia being about 30 total now) that are also scheduled for far, future like 2030-2035? We get 110 Mtpa by 2027! Same as Qataris, but a year later. Seems like the usual Burger King business plan (when in doubt, do what McDonald's does on the other side of the street)

The 30-50 Mtpa projects are thus of the, knock yourself out, Sechin. (Rosneft CEO. His usual gospel is price is nothing, market share is everything, fuck the OPEC+. Basically, Amazon)

The constraining factors on this seems to be the capability to procure enough ship. Rosneft already owns the largest new shipbuilding plant in Russia, Zvezda in the Far East. Just serving the Arctic LNG 2 requires 21 additional Arc7 (ice breaking) tankers. And it turns out that Yamal LNG is not actually Arctic 1. There are separate Arctic 1 and Arctic 2 identical to Arctic 2 which are likely waiting for the ships. (That's 9 trains, not 3) There are even more icebreaking crude carriers they have to build for oil (they are Aframex, not the largest kind)

Now, what is that supposed to mean. US is going to have 150 Mtpa liquefaction capacity by 2025?

https://www.offshore-technology.com/comment/us-lng-capacity-2025/

Is there is actually gas for all this. Suppose there is, but it is getting flared. Who is collecting? Are there new pipelines? Finally, are there enough tankers? Which means that  "liquefaction capacity" does nothing much on its own. My take is that the viable ones are those with strangely Qatari investors. Who notably got their own ships, the largest in the business. The scheme works something like this. A Qatari LNG tanker brings a cargo of LNG to US state of New England (which got no interstate pipelines), unloads. Goes loads local LNG in Texas, takes it to Japan, unloads. Goes to Indonesia, picks up their LNG to bring to India. And so on, circumnavigating the world to minimize empty trips. This is arbitration, free money made from US politicians being stupid and/or corrupt. So, USA goes and adds the money paid for the export leg to its GDP, so they get to brag about the largest GDP in the world. The net amount of gas does not actually change (Texas exported about as much as New England imported first) 2x the actual money US added up to its GDP end up in Qatari pockets. (for both the import leg and export leg if they own a liquefaction train on American soil. Wait a minute, wouldn't the most logical thing to do be loading the LNG in Texas for exporting to New England, without involving any hypothetical Qatari investors? Indeed, it would be. Anywhere, but in US. Because of

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Merchant_Marine_Act_of_1920

(aka, the Jones Act) which stipulates that one US state may only send something to another US state if it is done by a ship built in the USA and crewed by US crew. Since nobody in the US has the slightest clue how an LNG carrier is built anymore, and American merchant mariners are a dying breed, the point of the exercise seems to be kinda moot? Are there vested interests, meanwhile. I mean, the US legislative generally has much easier time forcing new BS laws rather than repealing old crud.

This, in essence, seems to be the most profitable kind of business with US LNG. No gas gets exported, if you look at the net sum. The profits go elsewhere (here, nominal Qatar) US government gets bragging rights in reporting much economic growth.

Last, but not least, lets address another invisible elephant in the room. Namely, Republic of Korea. To recap. Turns out, the allegedly "proposed"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Altai_gas_pipeline

(Power of Siberia 2, old route) has actually been built since 2006, but stopped just short of crossing into Xinjiang? Where there is already a willing hookup, in form of single longest pipeline in the world, at 8,707 km, connecting Xinjiang all the way to Shanghai. I mean, the Chinese must have some serious inceneration needs after genociding millions of inncoent Uigurs every day?

https://www.offshore-technology.com/features/worlds-longest-pipelines/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/West–East_Gas_Pipeline

Overall, looks something like this. As you can see, does not really get any closer to Russia any further East.

Now, Putin goes to China and suddently signs a deal with Xi to quickly connect the seemingly useful orphant segment, as some kind of makeshift PofS3 ahead of PofS2.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sakhalin–Khabarovsk–Vladivostok_pipeline

What is up with that? I mean, it does not seem to have that much gas? Or does it? Here is a wild story. Apparently, all the new production from now on uses automated submercible facilities placed on the seabed. Like robots crawling on on the bottom of the ocean. Could there be some US sanctioned entities among them? Could some of them be Exxon's? Who could tell. Sure thing is what the Sen. Ted Cruz does not know, does not hurt him.

https://www.gazprom.com/projects/sakhalin3/

Officially, Exxon excused themselves from Power of Siberia pipelining activities. They are building a single train LNG plant for their share of Sakhalin-1 gas, which is 6.2 Mtpa.

Oddly, there appears to be a very elaborate advanced fee fraud related to Sachalin oil and gas works that has been operating for years! (Get some gullibles to front them money for great discout on Russian fuels and never deliver)

https://www.aovolnovka.ru/

https://www.aovolnovka.ru/sakhalin-3.html

Probably friends of Ted Cruz' So, what is that they are doing? I thing some kind of reversible gas loop around Tibet? With at least one missing link. And an elephant in the room. In the shape of South Korea. Which is kinda in a way between Vladivostok and the terminus of Chinese pipeline trunk in Shanghai. This is only 667 km, much shorter than North Stream. Currently imports 45 Mtpa LNG ~= 63 bcm, which is just right sized.

How long are the Japanese going to hold out? It is even shorter to them. If they are not buying Russian gas, they could be buying Korean, perhaps? (in the finest tradition of Ukraine) Otherwise, it is only 42 !!! km over the La Pérouse/Sōya Strait from Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk (where there is some kind of pipeline and a smallish LNG plant already) The Japs are the largest LNG importer of all, 74 Mtpa ~= 103 bcm. Slightly over half the entire EU.'s worth. Probably looking for a way to do this in a bushido-conformant way. Because, Chinese, Koreans and Japanese are competitors in exports. Can't really allow one to have much better energy prices.

Some background

1) South Korea (and Israel) were the only American satellites who never joined any "sectoral sanctions" on Russian shipbuilding and oil&gas exploration. Since they are actually the ones who's doing the actual shipbuilding, the whole thing turned into a dud.

2) The story is quite old. They were always plans to patch SK via NK, but Kim has been very difficult for everybody involved. I suspect, he's a bad communist. This is how Russian-Korean border looks like. (it only got a rail link, but no pedestrian crossing or road for cars) Kim tends to visit on an armored train, anyway.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China–North_Korea–Russia_tripoint

To make long story short, I strongly recommed anybody American familiarize themselves with British lore like the Hearland theory

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Geographical_Pivot_of_History#Strategic_importance_of_Eastern_Europe

Ought to explain a thing or two about why whatever power projection and economic sanctions you may be planning, are inevitably going to backfire. Somehow, you overlooked the implications of 11 continuous time zones compressing into a singular point, yet again. (Enjoy, but consider the theories' age. As we know now, there is not really that much of a significe to Eastern Europe. Ultimately, is all of the EU just a peninsula attached to the continent of Eurasia, good for an extra timezone. Russia is most of the rest. If you don't like Russian expansion, we do contraction, too

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rodinia

(a previously unknown supercontinent)

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

17 hours ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Just wondering... Do you get paid to write these multiple treatises everyday?   You must.  No sane person has this much time on their hands. 

Are you interested in pitching in? Ron sez their rubles are no good!

[Tomasz + 1,608]

Let me explain.

Its not like Gazprom is not producing NG nowadays in record numbers.

Actually January marked the second month in a row of record gas production in Russia, even as Gazprom reported a 41% Y/Y drop in overall exports.

January output of 2,239 Mcm/d is up a smidge Y/Y, according to official figures.

Production of 2,090 Mcm/d in 2021 was also an annual record

Simply Europe doesnt get this record production. Thats all.

 

[Tomasz + 1,608]

These are the facts now.

Poland uses 20 billion m3 of gas annually.

It produces around 4 billion. The gas terminal may get a maximum of 5 billion - I emphasize the maximum, and no gas terminal in Europe is and has never been 100% loaded.

Officially, Poland draws 8-10 billion in the Yamal contract (8 billion in the take or pay forrmule, an option of 2 billion)

 And here comes the problem of mathematics from primary school: 20 minus 5 minus 4 is 11.

The average load on the gas terminal is at the level of 3 billion a year.

This is where the additional several billion meters of NG come from - from the virtual reverse in Jamale pipeline on the Polish-German border.

In fact, Poland imports 75% of imported gas from Russia.

The closure of Yamal meant that it is no longer a virtual import, but a real import from Germany.

Anyway, it was always Russian gas.

So much official government narrative and reality.

At the statistical level, it is gas imported from the European Union. Means options - Norway, the Netherlands, Romania or Great Britain. In fact, Russian gas has been returning backwards so far
According to calculations by Waldemar Pawlak polish former prime minister polish  PGNiG has overpaid about PLN 16 billion zlotys (4 bilion dolars) from June 1, 2020 as a result of a new formula in the Stockholm arbitration.

Just to point out that the costs of Polish energy policy are beginning to have a real impact on the economy.

Well, what exactly is the present great problem of Putin and Gazprom to manifest in.

Both record profit and record production in 2021 for at least 13 years.
So let me remind you that in 2020, some on the Polish net and analysts, for the hundred and fifty time, foretold Gazprom's bankruptcy.
So many people consider their wishes to be reality. The wishful thinking attitude is absolutely typical of the Polish community

.
And by the way, by the way, the most expensive gas in Europe is currently in the antirussian Poland and Ukraine and thats probably not Gazprom's problem
Germany in general, they  have contracts that are traditionally based on oil to a much greater extent.

From the point of view of Russians, it is good to wait several years at such prices as for TTF, currently until 2025, and finally Poland and Ukraine themselves will become the biggest supporters of a greater share of Russian gas in Europe
Let me remind you once more of Waldemar Pawel's calculations - a year and seven months of fighting against Gazprom, an overpayment of PLN 16 billion (4 bilion dollars)
Considering that this year's record price are from the very beginning of January, it will be at least another 10 billion in costs of such a policy.

I do not understand why Gazprom should be a victim of this situation. Rather,Poland and Ukraine are trapped by record-high gas and oil prices for almost $ 100, not really Gazprom Putin or Igor Siechin.

 

Edited February 9, 2022 by Tomasz

[Boat + 1,323]

That is why this life and death struggle over going green is so ridiculous. By 2035 the projection is a 35% gain in world BTU. 50% or double the use of btu by 2050. Even if electric transportation happens and all air conditioning is run off of renewables and batteries the market is so huge and growing there is no way all this bs about stopping FF is going to happen. 
The worlds population has at least 2 billion to go. The only enemy to FF demand is Mother Nature herself. For you climate deniers it’s clear sailing. The rest of us see our children and our childrens children getting killed by the billion.

[Tomasz + 1,608]

Putin's goal is to bankrupt Ukraine.

Ukrainians pay from 2015 the spot price of gas plus additional  huge margin for traders.

How do you think Putin will smash the Ukrainian economy faster with such very high prices of oil NG or coal or by depriving them only of a just one billion dollars from gas transit of pure profit (remember a billion $ is the cost of maintaining infrastructure)?

The tool is not really important when it hurts.

[Boat + 1,323]

Tomas. That’s kinda old news. Europe put themselves in harms way by trusting Putin. They should have focused on energy independence before going green. Putin is just making some of those countries pay for leaving the USSR. Those countries knew Putin might retaliate. He is a bum like Trump so I expect the worst. But whatever happens happens. Maybe millions will freeze and he will be the new Stalin or Pol Pot. Now that he has bared his teeth you cannot give in to the little fellow. He won’t get nicer. I say cut trade with Russia from every Allie East and west. Those who disagree can be cut from trade also. It would be very painful but better than earths destruction. 
 

[Tomasz + 1,608]

2 minutes ago, Boat said:

Tomas. That’s kinda old news. Europe put themselves in harms way by trusting Putin. They should have focused on energy independence before going green. Putin is just making some of those countries pay for leaving the USSR. Those countries knew Putin might retaliate. He is a bum like Trump so I expect the worst. But whatever happens happens. Maybe millions will freeze and he will be the new Stalin or Pol Pot. Now that he has bared his teeth you cannot give in to the little fellow. He won’t get nicer. I say cut trade with Russia from every Allie East and west. Those who disagree can be cut from trade also. It would be very painful but better than earths destruction. 
 

One simple question.

You live in USA or in Europe?

If you live in USA you dont have a right to force us to pay over 1.000 $ per m3 to realize you global policy.

Huge mess started by Maidan 2014

Watch this says it all

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4&t=1s

[Boat + 1,323]

When the USSR collapsed why did all those countries leave. It doesn't seem they were happy with management. 

[Boat + 1,323]

2 minutes ago, Tomasz said:

One simple question.

You live in USA or in Europe?

If you live in USA you dont have a right to force us to pay over 1.000 $ per m3 to realize you global policy.

Huge mess started by Maidan 2014

Watch this says it all

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4&t=1s

Sorry, no time for hr long videos. We’re 30 trillion in debt mainly on military spending. From the Muslims to the Russians and on to the Chinese. Much of that debt is our own fault but I don’t remember getting money from any country. Maybe Kuwait helped with the cost of their war. 

[Tomasz + 1,608]

I personally do not see any point in attacking Ukraine by armed forces.

What is this nativity scene for?

To put it brutally.

First-  Putin is now quite sure that after such an armed demonstration no normal investor will dare to invest in Ukraine any serious money for at least a few years if there may be a military bust.

Second the Ukrainian oligarchs themselves see this and Im waiting for the data on how many cash they have removed in the first quarter of 2022 from ukrainian economy. It will be huge number.

To put it brutally, Ukraine will die economically at such very high oil prices, coal gas price before Russia loos much weight in economic means.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/national-security-daily/2022/02/08/why-scholz-wont-say-hed-kill-ns2-00006847

Why Scholz won’t say he’d kill NS2

Scholz is in a weak coalition including the Greens. It could easily fall apart. RCW

 

By ALEXANDER WARD, ANDREW DESIDERIO and QUINT FORGEY 

 

02/08/2022 04:09 PM EST

Edited February 9, 2022 by ronwagn
add

[ronwagn + 6,290]

2 hours ago, Tomasz said:

I personally do not see any point in attacking Ukraine by armed forces.

What is this nativity scene for?

To put it brutally.

First-  Putin is now quite sure that after such an armed demonstration no normal investor will dare to invest in Ukraine any serious money for at least a few years if there may be a military bust.

Second the Ukrainian oligarchs themselves see this and Im waiting for the data on how many cash they have removed in the first quarter of 2022 from ukrainian economy. It will be huge number.

To put it brutally, Ukraine will die economically at such very high oil prices, coal gas price before Russia loos much weight in economic means.

Russia has already lost many billions of dollars since their first invasion of Ukraine. The ruble has never recovered. 

[Eric Gagen + 713]

4 hours ago, Boat said:

That is why this life and death struggle over going green is so ridiculous. By 2035 the projection is a 35% gain in world BTU. 50% or double the use of btu by 2050. Even if electric transportation happens and all air conditioning is run off of renewables and batteries the market is so huge and growing there is no way all this bs about stopping FF is going to happen. 
The worlds population has at least 2 billion to go. The only enemy to FF demand is Mother Nature herself. For you climate deniers it’s clear sailing. The rest of us see our children and our childrens children getting killed by the billion.

Which is why even though I am buying a Ford lightning and we will set up our next house with solar and batteries I still make my living in oil and gas.  The increase in living standards for billions of people (mostly in Africa and the Indian subcontinent) will drive massive demand increases in the next few decades. Both ends of the market are growing simultaneously.

Edited February 9, 2022 by Eric Gagen

[Tomasz + 1,608]

According to the Federal Customs Service (FCS), Gazprom's revenues from pipeline gas exports more than doubled in 2021 to $ 55.507 billion, with an annual average price of $ 272.8.

In December, the price of exported gas increased by 15.8% compared to November, to USD 517.8 per thousand cubic meters.

The physical volume of gas exports in 2021 increased by 0.5% compared to 2020, to 203.5 billion cubic meters.

At the same time, the export volume in December increased by 12.4% m / m -

The company's revenues from gas exports increased by 15.8% monthly - to USD 8.34 billion, and in annual terms - almost 2.2 times.

The price in December was $ 517.8, up from $ 156.6 in December 2020. The average price for the year was $ 272.8.

[Boat + 1,323]

On 2/8/2022 at 8:25 PM, Tomasz said:

I personally do not see any point in attacking Ukraine by armed forces.

What is this nativity scene for?

To put it brutally.

First-  Putin is now quite sure that after such an armed demonstration no normal investor will dare to invest in Ukraine any serious money for at least a few years if there may be a military bust.

Second the Ukrainian oligarchs themselves see this and Im waiting for the data on how many cash they have removed in the first quarter of 2022 from ukrainian economy. It will be huge number.

To put it brutally, Ukraine will die economically at such very high oil prices, coal gas price before Russia loos much weight in economic means.

I may be wrong but Putin loses his aggression but wins the pipeline in exchange. The Ukraine has a lot of nat gas if my memory serves me. Nat gas produced by anyone will be a popular investment. Remember how bleak it looked for the world after WWII? Humans are resourceful. The Ukraine will be fine. 

The entire world has a tough battle on its hands. Mother Nature costs trillions and growing. Throwing in the two billion more people will benefit the smart and tech nimble but billions will find it tough financially. 
 

[Boat + 1,323]

I just wanted to post that going green and to an electric society is inevitable and the right thing to do. Doing it through forced mandates is a plan not thought through. As tech improves going green will happen if it’s cheaper. Electric cars will sell much faster as they get better and cheaper. Batteries will get cheaper and solar will become more efficient while nat gas may never go back to that $2.50 price we enjoyed for years. But I don’t like the idea of not investing in competition with an eye on national security. 
Much of the world is at the political influence mercy of OPEC+ for their energy. This is one thing China, Japan, Europe, India, S Korea etc can agree on. That’s a lot of brain power to put on greener solutions. At the end of the day it’s brains and tech that can limit FF in areas over time. But as each BTU is replaced let cost and efficiency be the reason. Not some ideology that drives up cost.

[Tomasz + 1,608]

The output of Russian gas was at its highest level in the last five years, while oil production was at a four-year low, CDU TEK reported at the start of February.

Russia’s gas output was up 1.1% year on year in January at 69.4 bcm, after output grew at almost all the main gas producing companies.

Gazprom increased production 1% y/y to 47.4 bcm. Novatek’s standalone production slightly decreased 0.7% y/y. Yamal LNG’s gas production grew 8.1% y/y, Terneftegas’s 5.9% y/y and Arcticgas’s 0.2% y/y, while Nortgas showed a decline of 11.9% y/y. Novatek’s consolidated production was down 2.3% y/y. Rosneft’s gas production increased 7.1% y/y. At Surgutneftegas, production fell 2.8% y/y, while at Lukoil it was down 4.0% y/y, according to CDU TEK’s figures.

“In January, OPEC+ production grew an additional 400,000 barrels per day monthly, while Russia’s quota increased [by] 100,000 bpd monthly. The data on the production of gas condensate in January in the country is not available yet. If we assume it at 111,500 tonnes per day (December’s level), then the production of oil in January could have been some 10.1mn bpd, which would be in line with Russia’s OPEC+ quota of 10.1mn bpd,” VTB Capital (VTBC) said in a note. “However, we suppose that Russian oil companies are unlikely to be able to reach their quotas in accordance with the increasing OPEC+ schedule and deliver production of 10.4mn bpd of crude oil by May in the framework of their earlier articulated capex plans.”

VTBC estimates that crude production will only recover to the OPEC+ target by the end of the year (10.2mn bpd in 2022F on average, up 6% y/y), but that will have little effect on the companies’ valuations.

Gazprom was producing at 1.57bn cubic metres per day in January, which analysts say is close to its maximum capacity, as the state-owned gas giant struggles to meet both domestic demand and also fulfil its export obligations. As bne IntelliNews has reported, the V-shaped market of the last two years has pushed Russia’s ability to produce gas close to the maximum and without tapping the new fields in Yamal Russia’s ability to export more gas is limited. However, there is significant unused production and export potential from the Yamal fields, but without the new Nord Stream 2 pipeline in operation that gas cannot be exported and there only few interconnectors linking the Nord Stream 2’s northern route to the central route that runs to western customers via Ukraine’s pipeline network.

Gazprom cited the increased gas demand for gas in Russia as driving up production, which was the key driver for the growth. In export, Gazprom delivered about 10.5 bcm to Europe, down 43% y/y (but still slightly higher than the historical record low of January 2009), according to VTBC.

“The company continued to fulfil its contract obligations to European customers, and is likely to increase deliveries later this year as the majority of contracts are take-or-pay and have limited flexibility in terms of gas delivery fluctuations over certain time periods (e.g. a quarter), as we have already seen from the growing gas exports in the first two days of February,” VTBC said.

CDU TEK also published Russia’s oil and gas production statistics for January 2022. Russian liquids production was up 0.9% month on month to 46.5mn tonnes in absolute terms. In daily terms, it also increased 0.9% m/m to 10.96mn bpd.

Among integrated oil companies, Bashneft showed the highest m/m growth in liquids daily output of 8.7%, followed by Surgutneftegas, with 2%. Rosneft increased daily production 0.5% m/m. Tatneft’s daily output was flat m/m. Lukoil’s and Gazprom Neft’s daily production figures were down a slight 0.1% m/m and 0.3% m/m respectively. Non-integrated companies increased liquids production 1.1% m/m in daily terms to 3.03mn bpd.

On February 2, the participants of the OPEC+ ministerial conference approved an increase in oil production in March by the planned 400,000 bpd, according to the OPEC website.  

As a result, Russian producers would increase oil production 100,000 bpd in March 2022, according to Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak. However, by the end of January, OPEC+ participants were unable to produce oil in line with their new quotas, as some countries have been experiencing problems with increasing production, reports VTBC.  

“This is in line with the existing schedule for raising OPEC+ production. We note that the baseline agreement envisages Russian crude oil production growing 100,000 bpd every month until April 2022. However, in our view, Russian oil companies are unlikely to be able to reach their quotas in accordance with the increasing OPEC+ schedule and deliver production of 10.4mn bpd of crude oil by May under the guided capex plans. We estimate that crude production will only recover to the OPEC+ target by the end of the year (10.2mn bpd in 2022F on average, up 6% y/y),” VTBC said in a note.  

 

 

[Tomasz + 1,608]

According to the data of the Federal Customs Service (FTS) of the Russian Federation, trade between Russia and the EU in 2021 increased by 46.6% year-on-year and amounted to USD 282.047 billion.
Together with exports from Russia to the EU, it increased by 65.4% to USD 188.115 billion, imports to Russia from the EU increased by 19.4% to USD 93.933 billion.
The EU's share of total foreign trade turnover of the Russian Federation increased to 35.9% from 33.8% a year earlier

[NickW + 2,714]

I see France is now planning to build 17 new reactors. Won't resolve any short or medium term issues but at least Macron has put some long term planning in place that will diversify Europes power supply away from gas. 

Its classic EUSSR nonsense politics. 

Anti nuclear Italy and Germany heavily reliant on imports on French nuclear electricity😄

[Starschy + 211]

On 2/9/2022 at 6:08 AM, ronwagn said:

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/national-security-daily/2022/02/08/why-scholz-wont-say-hed-kill-ns2-00006847

Why Scholz won’t say he’d kill NS2

Scholz is in a weak coalition including the Greens. It could easily fall apart. RCW

 

By ALEXANDER WARD, ANDREW DESIDERIO and QUINT FORGEY 

 

02/08/2022 04:09 PM EST

Politico iswrong even the coalition fails Scholz would then have conservativer one with the CDU

like Merkel for years and German Companies need those NS II. It could give a large Crash to Nato. If the German freeze the support.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 2/11/2022 at 4:41 PM, Starschy said:

Politico iswrong even the coalition fails Scholz would then have conservativer one with the CDU

like Merkel for years and German Companies need those NS II. It could give a large Crash to Nato. If the German freeze the support.

That is a very short sighted view, Germany has many options to avoid being dependent on Russian blackmail. 

[notsonice + 1,255]

On 2/8/2022 at 7:02 PM, Tomasz said:

One simple question.

You live in USA or in Europe?

If you live in USA you dont have a right to force us to pay over 1.000 $ per m3 to realize you global policy.

Huge mess started by Maidan 2014

Watch this says it all

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4&t=1s

 you dont have a right to force us to pay over 1.000 $ per m3??? and you are a stockholder in Putins Gazprom.....Why are you not bitching at Putin for all his maneuvering to raise the price of oil and gas by his actions on the Ukrainian border....No one is forcing you to buy US gas........You can go without or switch to producing your own if you do not like the world price...In other words you are dependent on  importing gas and you are upset when the price goes up?? Crazy..........how do you think it was in the US in 1973?????? with the Arab oil embargo????