Europe gas market -how it started how its going

[NickW + 2,714]

8 hours ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

My Russian sources say you might commission something now, because you kicked out the French and hired the Chinese.

?????

EDF are building Hinkley C (3.2GW dual reactor) 

I hope we don't commission anything Chinese. I hope the RR modular reactor proposals get off the ground. 

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

44 minutes ago, NickW said:

?????

EDF are building Hinkley C (3.2GW dual reactor) 

I hope we don't commission anything Chinese. I hope the RR modular reactor proposals get off the ground. 

But you did

https://www.newcivilengineer.com/latest/hinkley-point-c-could-be-delayed-by-chinese-nuclear-plant-fault-02-12-2021/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hinkley_Point_C_nuclear_power_station#History

It's got a sister reactor at Taishan in China, which could only be finished due to Chinese GCN involvement. EDF simply does not have the expertise anymore. If that makes it any easier, the only American/Japanese Westinghouse reactors that got finished are also by Chinese themselves and are in China. The only people actually shipping Gen III+ reactors are Russians, Chinese and Koreans. On time and on budget. The collective West has left the building.

The Chinese are getting remunerated by some amount of equity in your project, which I believe to be something like 7%. (It is hard to tell with your government trying to weasel out of it due to GCN being a US-sanctioned entity)

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

1 hour ago, NickW said:

?????

EDF are building Hinkley C (3.2GW dual reactor) 

I hope we don't commission anything Chinese. I hope the RR modular reactor proposals get off the ground. 

This

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/02/business/great-britain-china-nuclear-power.html

says at least 20% Chinese. (Actually, the managed to simultaneously credit 1/5 and 1/3 in the same article somehow)

Edited December 31, 2021 by Andrei Moutchkine

[NickW + 2,714]

31 minutes ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

But you did

https://www.newcivilengineer.com/latest/hinkley-point-c-could-be-delayed-by-chinese-nuclear-plant-fault-02-12-2021/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hinkley_Point_C_nuclear_power_station#History

It's got a sister reactor at Taishan in China, which could only be finished due to Chinese GCN involvement. EDF simply does not have the expertise anymore. If that makes it any easier, the only American/Japanese Westinghouse reactors that got finished are also by Chinese themselves and are in China. The only people actually shipping Gen III+ reactors are Russians, Chinese and Koreans. On time and on budget. The collective West has left the building.

The Chinese are getting remunerated by some amount of equity in your project, which I believe to be something like 7%. (It is hard to tell with your government trying to weasel out of it due to GCN being a US-sanctioned entity)

Thats the tragedy of the hiatus in new build across Europe. We simply lost the skills set. 

In the 70's and 80's the Uk was commissioning a new AGR every few years. THE CEGB had a big team of nuclear new build project managers. 

Thats why I have more hope in the Rolls Royce proposal because they are the only industrial body that have consistent skills set in building PWR's for the UKs sub fleet. 

[NickW + 2,714]

23 minutes ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

This

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/02/business/great-britain-china-nuclear-power.html

says at least 20% Chinese. (Actually, the managed to simultaneously credit 1/5 and 1/3 in the same article somehow)

The plant is being built by EDF. The Chinese have a financial stake and will thus take a % of the profits. 

At the time the strike price was viewed as financial madness at £92.50 / Mwh however if high electricity prices are here to stay that quite low!

 

[NickW + 2,714]

10 hours ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

The requirement for heat tends to be much higher than for electricity.

You also need gas as a chemical feedstock, for example for all the nitro fertilizers.

True. That's another reason I keep two 85 AH batteries off my boat at home over winter. I have an inverter and if we got an extended power cut I can run our boiler and solar water heating (if the conditions are right) for several hours. In a really long power cut I could use the solar (PV) to recharge the batteries. I have a DC charge controller lying about. 

For cooking I have a spirit stove and several litres of alcohol

For lighting several LED lanterns which last 8-10 hours. 

 

[NickW + 2,714]

12 hours ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

Due to 30 gas tankers dropping all at once? Unscheduled.

 

 

Yes deduct that from the equation and solar and wind becomes even more competitive against natural gas on a kwh basis. 

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

2 hours ago, NickW said:

Thats the tragedy of the hiatus in new build across Europe. We simply lost the skills set. 

In the 70's and 80's the Uk was commissioning a new AGR every few years. THE CEGB had a big team of nuclear new build project managers. 

Thats why I have more hope in the Rolls Royce proposal because they are the only industrial body that have consistent skills set in building PWR's for the UKs sub fleet. 

It is worse that this. The reactors you were commissioning in the 70-80ies were Gen 2. The current state of the art is Gen III+ and approaching Gen IV (fully closed nuclear cycle) So, you missed out on a lot. Gen III is post-Fukushima safe, BTW (must survive a scale 10 tsunami, too) This proved to be more difficult than the Western companies thought (Both Areva and Westinghouse went bankrupt trying)

I am not much familiar with RR's submarine propulsion. If they are using highly enriched fuel like American military nukes do, there is very little there which translates to civilian reactors. (Instead of melting down, those things will actually go bomb)

[NickW + 2,714]

10 minutes ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

It is worse that this. The reactors you were commissioning in the 70-80ies were Gen 2. The current state of the art is Gen III+ and approaching Gen IV (fully closed nuclear cycle) So, you missed out on a lot. Gen III is post-Fukushima safe, BTW (must survive a scale 10 tsunami, too) This proved to be more difficult than the Western companies thought (Both Areva and Westinghouse went bankrupt trying)

I am not much familiar with RR's submarine propulsion. If they are using highly enriched fuel like American military nukes do, there is very little there which translates to civilian reactors. (Instead of melting down, those things will actually go bomb)

I'm sure RR have considered the transfer to the civilian power market. In anycase I don't believe there has ever been a significant issue with RR PWRS on Uk subs which have been fitted since the 1960's. 

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

2 hours ago, NickW said:

The plant is being built by EDF. The Chinese have a financial stake and will thus take a % of the profits. 

At the time the strike price was viewed as financial madness at £92.50 / Mwh however if high electricity prices are here to stay that quite low!

 

This is likely what they tell you. The Chinese "investor" happens to be a company that actually builds nukes (The Chinese have whole 3 of them), not operate them.The EDF can't really build. They used to be the designated OPERATOR of the French nukes. The builder was Areva. Who is bankrupt. EDF got what is left of it on the liquidation sale, but I am not sure it is of any help. Relax, the Chinese are the ones who actually do know how to fix your project. So my Russian sources.

[NickW + 2,714]

1 minute ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

This is likely what they tell you. The Chinese "investor" happens to be a company that actually builds nukes (The Chinese have whole 3 of them), not operate them.The EDF can't really build. They used to be the designated OPERATOR of the French nukes. The builder was Areva. Who is bankrupt. EDF got what is left of it on the liquidation sale, but I am not sure it is of any help. Relax, the Chinese are the ones who actually do know how to fix your project. So my Russian sources.

Which is why I'm more comfortable with RR

British company with superlative global reputation

Been building nukes since the 1960's. Sheffield forgemasters cast the reactors - another superlative engineering company in its field. 

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

8 minutes ago, NickW said:

I'm sure RR have considered the transfer to the civilian power market. In anycase I don't believe there has ever been a significant issue with RR PWRS on Uk subs which have been fitted since the 1960's. 

OK. I checked

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rolls-Royce_PWR

93% - 97% enrichment. This has no relevance for civilian market whatsoever. If I have to name one reason, it would violate every conceivable nuclear non-proliferation treaty imaginable. More

https://media.nti.org/pdfs/Replacing_HEU_in_Naval_Reactors_Report_FINAL.pdf

Russia's got a naval reactor that's down to record low 14%, for comparison

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/KLT-40_reactor

Used in this thing

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Akademik_Lomonosov

Won major accolades from IAEA and "floating Chernobyl" label from your propaganda press.

 

 

 

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

9 minutes ago, NickW said:

Which is why I'm more comfortable with RR

British company with superlative global reputation

Been building nukes since the 1960's. Sheffield forgemasters cast the reactors - another superlative engineering company in its field. 

The superlative global reputation is probably that of luxury car manufacturer and/or turbine builder. Neither of which are British anymore. As far as their nuclear products are concerned, all of their details are classified. So, they can't really have a reputation.

Are you sure there are still forges in Sheffield? Appears to still be very much the center of British industrial decline. I have a rule of thumb for this sort of thing. Is the local university and hockey/soccer team raising through the ranks? If yes, we've got our "Full Monty" (remember that movie?) Compare to, say, Ostrava in the Czech Republic (which is no longer in industrial decline, hence does no longer have a meteorically rising soccer team and university. Used to though, in the early 2000s)

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

2 hours ago, NickW said:

True. That's another reason I keep two 85 AH batteries off my boat at home over winter. I have an inverter and if we got an extended power cut I can run our boiler and solar water heating (if the conditions are right) for several hours. In a really long power cut I could use the solar (PV) to recharge the batteries. I have a DC charge controller lying about. 

For cooking I have a spirit stove and several litres of alcohol

For lighting several LED lanterns which last 8-10 hours. 

 

The miracle of for-profit electricity grid. Unimaginable in Soviet Union (and, by extension, even today's Russia) Never a blackout as large as a city block in my living memory, everything is 3x-4x redundant.

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

2 hours ago, NickW said:

Yes deduct that from the equation and solar and wind becomes even more competitive against natural gas on a kwh basis. 

Not a plug-in replacement, because not schedulable, regardless of what your KWh costs say. Did you count in the intermediate storage / other grid fortification measures?

[NickW + 2,714]

17 minutes ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

The superlative global reputation is probably that of luxury car manufacturer and/or turbine builder. Neither of which are British anymore. As far as their nuclear products are concerned, all of their details are classified. So, they can't really have a reputation.

Are you sure there are still forges in Sheffield? Appears to still be very much the center of British industrial decline. I have a rule of thumb for this sort of thing. Is the local university and hockey/soccer team raising through the ranks? If yes, we've got our "Full Monty" (remember that movie?) Compare to, say, Ostrava in the Czech Republic (which is no longer in industrial decline, hence does no longer have a meteorically rising soccer team and university. Used to though, in the early 2000s)

Rolls Royce holdings have nothing to do with RR car manufacturing. The Marque is owned by BMW. 

Sheffield Forgemasters, irrespective of how sh1t Sheffield is are globally renowned. 

[NickW + 2,714]

11 minutes ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

Not a plug-in replacement, because not schedulable, regardless of what your KWh costs say. Did you count in the intermediate storage / other grid fortification measures?

Which is why I said on a kwh basis. Wind is less than half the price of gas origin electricity. 

At least on windy days electricity is cheap. On calm days we need to pay a premium for gas (or other dispatchable source) to make up the shortfall

[NickW + 2,714]

18 minutes ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

The miracle of for-profit electricity grid. Unimaginable in Soviet Union (and, by extension, even today's Russia) Never a blackout as large as a city block in my living memory, everything is 3x-4x redundant.

I have those resources anyway for the yacht. It just makes sense to keep them at home for a number of reasons  (security, charging the batteries etc) over winter. 

Given the tightness of European electricity supply makes sense to have back ups. Even better if you can utilise resources you own anyway for other purposes.

Edited December 31, 2021 by NickW

[NickW + 2,714]

32 minutes ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

OK. I checked

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rolls-Royce_PWR

93% - 97% enrichment. This has no relevance for civilian market whatsoever. If I have to name one reason, it would violate every conceivable nuclear non-proliferation treaty imaginable. Moreh

Again. I didn't say using that PWR in the civillian market. The point was that RR have near on 60 years experience of building reactors, albeit military ones. 

 

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

1 hour ago, NickW said:

Again. I didn't say using that PWR in the civillian market. The point was that RR have near on 60 years experience of building reactors, albeit military ones. 

 

And I said that there is no relevant experience in building reactors using bomb-grade material. Those are entirely sealed units. For the entire lifetime of the ship they come with lately! Never supposed to be maintained or refueled.

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

1 hour ago, NickW said:

I have those resources anyway for the yacht. It just makes sense to keep them at home for a number of reasons  (security, charging the batteries etc) over winter. 

Given the tightness of European electricity supply makes sense to have back ups. Even better if you can utilise resources you own anyway for other purposes.

Do you have any of these?

https://www.force4.co.uk/department/safety/signalling-visibility/flares

These might be OTC items in UK only, where they exist for the strangest official reason of having to save whales. You know why that is?

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

1 hour ago, NickW said:

Rolls Royce holdings have nothing to do with RR car manufacturing. The Marque is owned by BMW. 

Sheffield Forgemasters, irrespective of how sh1t Sheffield is are globally renowned. 

Yes, BMW. The aircraft turbines are vaguely MTU.

OK, looked up

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sheffield_Forgemasters

Been nationalized by your MoD now. Say can make the largest single casting in Europe, weighting 570 tons. However.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9063617/Worlds-largest-crane-hoists-575-TON-steel-cylinder-place-Hinkley-Point.html

So, the 5 ton difference is likely in the same part for Sizewell B (credited to the Sheffield Forgemasters) and Sizewell C (is not) You tell me.

a) Somebody in Europe can cast a larger part, after all?

b) The part is not from Europe?

In all honesty, it does not look like a single cast to me, but it got to be the same part. Too many coincidences.

Seems like they are counting the weight of all the steel poured, not the final part weight

https://www.themanufacturer.com/articles/sheffield-forgemasters-announces-record-breaking-pour/

The actual parts come out about half as large

https://www.foundrymag.com/melt-pour/article/21928451/pouring-begins-for-forgemasters-supersized-castings

So, I reckon they were opportunistically bidding to cast the part in one piece, which was not really necessary and lost the bid.

Alternate explanations?

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

2 hours ago, NickW said:

Which is why I said on a kwh basis. Wind is less than half the price of gas origin electricity. 

At least on windy days electricity is cheap. On calm days we need to pay a premium for gas (or other dispatchable source) to make up the shortfall

How do you pay for the grid buildup? It is known to break at about 30% non-dispatchable sources at the latest, if you leave everything as-is. Which you really can't, because the offshore wind farms are on HVDC, making at least the static inverters necessary.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tragedy_of_the_commons

perhaps?

The reason I am asking is because the dear EU is trying to imitate a whole bunch of British BS, which is really Thatcherite. That is, privatize everything in sight and make every trade exchange-based. It is known to never work as well as advertised

[Piotr Berman + 82]

On 12/29/2021 at 6:46 PM, Starschy said:

In general all Commodity from Russia will be much  more competitive.

Gas is one thing. Titan is another one, 50% for Boeing and Airbus without Western Airlines would have big issues. The Russian and Chinese Airline producers will compete.

Once I read that an American congressman wanted protection for American titanium producers, as it is a strategic material.  That made me curious and I did some checking.  Titanium is relatively plentiful and mined in many places, a big proportion is used to make paints.  However, while the raw material is not expensive, making the metal is somewhat difficult.  What is difficult, and is being done in Russia, is making high purity titanium necessary for airplane parts.  Because of the pandemic, the production of airplanes is down, and the factory is not making profit, however it is indeed strategic so the conglomerate that owns it keeps it alive.  To me it was interesting, because it shows how the global economy depends on a myriad of technologies, and breaking it into two hostile blocks, like in the original Cold War, would have plenty of losers.  

[Piotr Berman + 82]

 

Andrei Moutchkine

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   7 hours ago,  NickW said: 

True. That's another reason I keep two 85 AH batteries off my boat at home over winter. I have an inverter and if we got an extended power cut I can run our boiler and solar water heating (if the conditions are right) for several hours. In a really long power cut I could use the solar (PV) to recharge the batteries. I have a DC charge controller lying about. 

For cooking I have a spirit stove and several litres of alcohol

For lighting several LED lanterns which last 8-10 hours. 

 

Expand  

The miracle of for-profit electricity grid. Unimaginable in Soviet Union (and, by extension, even today's Russia) Never a blackout as large as a city block in my living memory, everything is 3x-4x redundant.

----

I experienced a blackout once, on a vacation trip with my wife.  We were driving from Pennsylvania to New Hampshire, and we stopped right after NY state line, and the people at gas stations were putting cones preventing entering the stations as they could not operate.  Once we reached Hudson River and tried to by gasoline there, with almost empty tank, we learned that we are in the middle of a blackout zone, and with no electricity, the gasoline pumps do not work.  Luckily, with a tent and everything necessary for camping including food, water and cooking gear, we have spent the night comfortably.