Who is wrong IEA or EIA or both?

[Tomasz + 1,608]

So IEA informed us in December we are already oversupplied globally in oil.

Well I know its end of tax year in oil rafinery in USA but I see

-some record oil demand

-whole inventories with SPR declining by more thand 10 milion barrels last weak and let me point 20.3 milion barrels this week

Im interested more in NG than crude oil but whats going on?

Who is such inaccurate in forecasting

Some 20.3 total draw evend at end of tax year doesnt look like oversupplied market even globaly not only USA.

 

 

[Eric Gagen + 713]

The US authorized sales/draw on the SPR a few months ago and it’s happening now.  The prognosis of ‘oversupply’ counts oil withdrawn from the SPR, so both statements are correct:  there is an oversupply of oil, caused in part by withdrawals from the SPR.  These sales/withdrawals from the SPR are being done for domestic political reasons - not fundamental economic ones. Joe Biden wants to be seen ‘taking action’ on high fuel prices and this is the action he has chosen. 

[Tomasz + 1,608]

Well US implied oil demand on a 4-week basis just hit an all-time high for this time of the year in December according to EIA.

And the IEA is still assuming OECD demand to be well below 2019 for 2022.

Im not an oil expert but IEA reports is a joke. They are never correct.

I would say IEA always underestimate demand. 

It looks like that OPEC report is report from biggest producers.

IEA is always dowish on oil because this is a report of consumers.

Sorry to say but they are not producing high class reports as far as I remember.

[Eric Gagen + 713]

59 minutes ago, Tomasz said:

Well US implied oil demand on a 4-week basis just hit an all-time high for this time of the year in December according to EIA.

And the IEA is still assuming OECD demand to be well below 2019 for 2022.

Im not an oil expert but IEA reports is a joke. They are never correct.

I would say IEA always underestimate demand. 

It looks like that OPEC report is report from biggest producers.

IEA is always dowish on oil because this is a report of consumers.

Sorry to say but they are not producing high class reports as far as I remember.

EIA data is generally decent in my experience at least in the short term.  IEA is more ‘cheerleaderish’ attempting to move prices and influence markets.  Sometimes they have decent data but their ‘analysis’ is often suspect.

[nsdp + 449]

Tomaz you aren't familiar with property tax in the US.  Most of the last week of  December is committed to putting as much foreign crude into refinery storage where it is in a free  trade zone and therefore property tax free and pushing as much refined products to terminals and dealers so it is off the refinery's books. Property tax is assess on barrels in refinery storage that are not duty/tax free on Jan 1.  Refiners will run all taxable domestic crude they can the last 7 days of the year and empty crude tanks.  They refill with foreign crude stored at a terminal like GATX also in the duty tax free trade zone.  A refinery like say Marathon in Texas city is 430,000 barrels/d.  At  local ad valorim property tax of $2.50/barrel a days run of domestic rather than foreign crude saves them over $1million/day  for every day of foreign crude inventory on hand. What oil is where and how it is counted is almost impossible this time of the year.  Canadian crude crosses the US border in a taxable area so they don't get the free ride.

Edited December 30, 2021 by nsdp
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