Putin Wants Farmland in the East, Let Ports and sole control of Azov Sea. . . . . Biden "minor incursion alright"

[bobo88 + 58]

On 2/11/2022 at 11:16 AM, bobo88 said:

2014 Conflict

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[Tomasz + 1,608]

How much is Ukraine worth ?

Yes  put up a bit perverse question answer has to to be ambiguous .

First , it depends for who . For Ukrainian oligarchs is worth as much as you can from her pull out money .

For some residents this country states some undefined value emotional , and for her , called affectionately Ukrainians , ready there are even fight .

For Poles , not the fate of that " Ukraine" should wake similar emotions and to be rather indifferent , mostly with due on historical the past and unfriendly behavior her authorities and some organization respect Polish and Poles .

For us more essential it should to be that we , with occasion present confusion they suffered some damage . And to such it could come if we they gave myself drawn into a conflict military .

Someone , not necessarily but a real picture relationship Poles to this issues there are results research opinion . Such curious who _ it's necessary to comment was _ poll   European Affairs Council Foreign . Research covered seven EU countries : Poland , France , Italy , Germany , Finland , Sweden and Romania .

Data relating to Polish must wake anxiety . They show that _ _ majority residents our country believes that _ belongs somehow engage to defend myself Ukraine in the event aggression with pages Russia . He has yes be careful as many as 65% of respondents Poles , and it is the greatest percentage out of all countries where in any _ another this number is not exceeds 43 percent, and in Germany it has so careful 37 percent. subjects .

Yet bigger amazement awakens willingness to take a risk fate your country of its own community . According these research Important majority There is supposed to be Poles Yes determined to defend Ukraine is ready _ _ to sacrifice for this very a lot . Advantage mindless risk-takers above moderate is evident in all five _ segments showing what you can to risk something for help Ukraine in the event alleged Russian aggression . Listed in turn : economic refraction , higher prices energy , influx refugees from Ukraine , cyber attacks , threat military share Russia . Majority Polish respondents _ she had indicate that _ each of them consequences worth the risk for defense Ukraine .

is hard to believe so really was . Most likely , with this poll there was a misunderstanding , bad interpret , be maybe even purposeful manipulation having encourage Polish government to the irresponsible behavior in the case crisis on Ukraine . It's hard directly believe that , as this poll shows , 53 percent. Poles was ready to risk something Russian military answer for defense Ukraine . The opposite the sentence is supposed to be only 39 percent

On that really we have manipulation here , they point out _ results another , large one what poll _ carried out in Poland quite recently , on January 21 , by United Surveys for DGP and RMF FM. In it too as many as 66 percent of the respondents tells for some _ help Ukraine , but here , excellent the majority are against taking some kind risk clashes military with Russia .

Only 14.7 percent. would be for sending Polish soldiers on Ukraine , and this is after all action that _ it could soonest threaten such consequences .

Interestingly , among _ followers lot the ruling party, PiS, supporters sending soldiers , there are only 11 percent, while most this kind risk-takers and lovers Ukraine , because as much as 58 percent, is to be among followers Confederation . This is it more strange that _ politician Confederation is the MP who the most definitely he says myself against supporting Ukraine , i.e. Grzegorz Braun.

As for this values Ukraine for Polish , it's on space even the last times we had many different courts on the subject ; from these rejecters meaning Ukraine for maintenance independent countries Polish , up to some bizarre affirmations , of the kind slogan former the president Kwaśniewski : ' There is no free one Poland , without a free one Ukraine ".

It's necessary to also notice that _ formerly were calculated these value Ukraine in quite real money . Few he knows that in 1686 Polish people negotiators treaty peace with Russia they agreed myself waive Russia on Constant city Kiev for the amount of 140 thousand rubles . Today spends it is small _ _ amount , but then it was the equivalent of 1/10 of the year income treasure whole countries Moscow .

can see that our ancestors they were more practical , and though also , like Kwaśniewski , they used slogans and rhetoric , it's not they forgot that however, it is more important real gold and silver .

It is anyway no was then some exception , because then enough universal practice was that _ territories changed membership state in exchange for some amounts money . And yes , Tsar Peter the Great acquired from Swedes Livonia , Estonia and Karelia , na power the treaty of Nystad , for the sum of 2 million rubles what was then sum huge , equal year-round profitable tsarist treasure . if Russia , almost 150 years later , she sold it Alaska for the US it's nobody to this day no challenges , but at the same time little who acknowledges that _ _ _ Russia she paid sometime for an acquisition Estonia and most Latvia , i today nobody no considers this fact now _ had some meaning .

Anyway thread financial and currently occurs in the game around Ukraine . US President Joe Biden announced that if Russia will step in on Ukraine , then the Nord Stream 2 pipeline no will stay never running . It means that _ she stayed sort of Russia designated price for Ukraine . The construction of NS2 was costly Russia is 10 billion euros and this is the price . True , more so go maybe about possible future annual income from the use of NS2, but undoubtedly concrete , this is the EUR 10 billion . Putin, though designation Yes relatively low prices , no it takes but Ukraine , because can be seen no this is his intention .

And here we come to the next one paradox this situation . The media, also in Poland , are trying myself to convince Putin that he wants to grab Ukraine , or at least her big hello when _ meanwhile his works concern quite something another . Russia wants the authorities Ukraine have realized records agreements peaceful concluded in February 2015 in Minsk . _

Filling these the records are to take effect switching on rebellious parts circuits Donetsk and Lugansk as well restoration control Ukraine above border these oblasts with Russia . A condition this it is n't even introduction autonomy for these mastered by separatists lands , and only establishing the so- called " Special mode functioning local government territorial ".

It follows that Putin does not _ I want take over none Ukrainian territories , directly on the contrary , filling records contracts in Minsk it is supposed to lead to reintegration disconnected parts circuits Donetsk and Lugansk with Ukraine .

Some , Russophobic minded columnists _ they compare current situation to act Hitler to Czechoslovakia in 1938. Nothing more wrong ; Hitler seized territories Czechoslovakia , incorporating them into the Reich when Meanwhile , Putin did not ejects further claims respect Ukrainian territories . Even if conditions , on what you have take place filling contracts Minsk , there are not to the taste ruling in Kiev , however boundaries state -owned , they are this the most real fact , what on biggest and permanently much . They should therefore take what Putin today offers and relax wait on better boom , on change power in Moscow .

Yes would sensible politicians , but such on Ukraine there is and never I guess no was . No want myself here divorce above catastrophic mistakes there leaders , from Khmelnytsky starting out, but let me remind you only that their so - called Ukrainian Committee National , focusing melnykowce , banderowcy , queen , petlurowców and another autorament collaborators , he concluded with the Third Reich arrangement in March 1945, where Nazi Germany , already  then barely warm , felt them on representatives Ukraine , and they they started molding on _ SS Galizien base , army having fight for Germany . That in March 45 , on _ month before the end war , to wager on Germany needs it was to be fully deprived of whatever reason .

Many exciting myself today whether or not will be the war . It is difficult thing and explosion war is frequent aftermath dynamics the events that they can  sneak out myself bottom control . This is why it's hard such question rationalize and on seriously claim that _ war no will be there for some reason .

These causes anyway always you can turn over and show that _ in fact they don't affect whether or not war will , or no . For example I will judge one of the arguments friend from FB, Mr. Ronald Lasecki , which  claims to be for his cause war no will be . Well he believes on example that _ Russia no maybe to go on a war with the West because her the economy is too addicted from West : "46% today export Russian goes to the EU (4% of the EU goes to Russia ), 38% of imports Russian comes from the EU ”.

Let 's start with that given by Mr Lasecki numbers no they present today state connections commercial Russia with the EU. According data for the previous one year , given February 11 , 38 percent. Russian export goes to the EU and comes from there 32 percent. import . There are numbers significantly smaller from given by Lasecki , whom data concern situation before a few pretty years , not today like himself provides . in addition size Russian exports to the EU no influences significantly on Russian politics , because in 2014 as much as 52 percent. Russian export receipts _ it came from the EU, yet this situation is not she stopped Russia from activities Crimea and supporting separatists in Donbas .

We can see therefore , that the argument is that bindings commercial influenced on holding back Russia from implementation yours goals concerning security , is worth little . Above this also think about it myself they should all followers sanctions economic against Russia . Such actions Russia no they will stop , and those who introduce them just more myself they will hurt .

My modest think already _ greater influence for it maybe have , and probably does, personal approach the president Vladimir Putin , to some extent degree creates myself on the ruler similar to Tsar Alexander III, also known for taking care of increasing strength military Russia . Putin personally revealed his monument in Livadia on Crimea and the media often show it in situations that must remind person that one rulers Russian empire. Well , Alexander III, reigning about 140 years ago , he was known by the nickname Mirotworiec ( Миротворец - peacemaker , carrying room ). It took it is from that _ during his reign Russia no was rolling none wars with others countries though _ the situation in Europe was then tense , and conflict in Central Asia threatened directly explosion war between Russia and Great Great Britain .

Until the war but no happened and Alexander III deserved on your nickname . I think Putin , creating myself on Alexander III, also has na consider it to to be remembered as the one who war great no unleashed and the personal one aspect maybe to have bigger meaning than any other , apparently rational causes . _

 

[bobo88 + 58]

Simple: Putin just takes oblast directly on the border from Luhansk to Kherson . . . . 

1. They then own the Azov Sea 

2. They control the Port of Mariupol (BIG )

3. They control City of Kherson in oblast Kherson on the Dnieper River. A choke point.  

They control the 70% of Ukraine economy by controlling ports.  

4. Russia has control of any new natural gas or oil resources in Azov Sea or off coast of the Southern oblasts.

Could go for Odessa, but would be costly.

End Result : Russia controls Ukraine. Eventually , gets a Russian friendly govt and Ukraine is in Russian sphere of influence and talk of joining NATO is dead.

Of courß all those corporations that wanted to do business in Ukraine, oil companies and defense contractors that contributed to the Biden campaign lose.  Not the U.S. problem. 

Ukraine can put all their troops a defense on the Eastern front then Russia will walk into Ukraine from Belarus, Russia Kursk oblast and Odessa.

Separatist in Donetsk start to increase fight. Russia feels it "has to" help. Ukraine responses and finds itself in a three front war.

It is really quite simple.

Edited just now by bobo88