JPM : Oil to $120 if Ukraine situation escalates. Really ?

[bobo88 + 58]

May well happen. However, if you go long oil keep your finger on the sell trigger.  It doesn't warrent those prices. It will turn on you very quickly.

JPM will proably be selling into the rise for their clients all the way up.

When/If Putin goes in it looks like it will only be 5 to 7 oblasts along the eastern/southern border.  These are very Pro  Russian friendly territory.

All the hyperbola may run up prices but reality will settle in after the Russian advance is over in days not months .  .  .  .  with no disruption to oil.

Plus , Putin has already sent two aircraft carriers to the Black Sea with another 4 carriers or battleships to follow. No stoppage or slowdown of Russian Oil.

I expect Putin will act after the Olympics end at the earliest and before the end of March at the latest.

 

 

Edited February 14, 2022 by bobo88

[Eric Gagen + 713]

On 2/9/2022 at 8:29 PM, bobo88 said:

May well happen. However, if you go long oil keep your finger on the sell trigger.  It doesn't warrent those prices. It will turn on you very quickly.

JPM will proably be selling into the rise for their clients all the way up.

When/If Putin goes in it looks like it will only be 4 or 5 provences along the eastern border.  These are very Pro  Russian friendly territory.

All the hyperbola may run up prices but reality will settle in after the Russian advance is over in days not months .  .  .  .  with no disruption to oil.

Plus , Putin has already sent two aircraft carriers to the Black Sea with another 4 carriers or battleships to follow. No stoppage or slowdown of Russian Oil.

I expect Putin will act after the Olympics end at the earliest and before the end of March at the latest.

 

 

If Putin takes ANY military action, the results aren't up to him - they are up to other people. Putin may be ready to 'get back to business' after such an action, but the rest of the world, and especially not most of Europe afterwards will be very wary of doing so.  As soon as practical,  you can expect Russian exports of anything to be pulled off the market through a combination of sanctions, ending and lapsed contracts, etc.  This includes oil and gas for sale, which will cause prices to go up, because it is effectively removed from the market.  

[Boat + 1,325]

In other Russian news perhaps the most talented skater in the history of ice skating is a young 15 yr old Russian girl being sanctioned for doping.

The US has a 16 yr old girl who is perhaps the best singer in the history of the world who has not been caught doping. She just released a ticktock, singing about a house where they did dope. That was full disclosure. 
 

https://youtu.be/wPMjaGzpIKo

[bobo88 + 58]

4 hours ago, Eric Gagen said:

If Putin takes ANY military action, the results aren't up to him - they are up to other people. Putin may be ready to 'get back to business' after such an action, but the rest of the world, and especially not most of Europe afterwards will be very wary of doing so.  As soon as practical,  you can expect Russian exports of anything to be pulled off the market through a combination of sanctions, ending and lapsed contracts, etc.  This includes oil and gas for sale, which will cause prices to go up, because it is effectively removed from the market.  

The only Europe that Putin cares about is Germany. It's not just oil and gas.  Germany sells a lot of machinery and chemicals to Russia.  That's not going to change. It will grow.

As for the rest of Europe I serious don't think they will want to pay $15 mmbtu for natural gas.

What are Russia's exports? Oil, gas, agriculture (wheat, barley, corn, seed oils, ect) 

China will buy all the oil, gas and agriculture Russia produces.  

China and Egypt are Russia's biggest Agri buyers.  Not going to stop.

Brandon will throw some sanctions at Russia including banking sanctions. Putin will live with it.

Russia sells 1.5 million bbls/day of diesel to U.S.  They actually sell it to the oil companies that sell it to the Northeast.  It's the triangle trade.  It allows oil companies to avoid paying income tax on the sale. 

Bet you the diesel continues flowing to U.S. from Russia. 

I'm not routing for Putin. He is a despot. I wish he would leave the corrupt Ukraine's alone. But I don't know why the U.S. has to act like they care and waste time and billions on this place.Europe doesn't care why should U.S. ?

There is a world war going on for economic growth and security.  China, Germany and even Russia are engaged.

The Woke U.S is losing this war.

Biden's Party is still fighting the Soviet Union and enriching themselves in China. 

Somebody please have Jill Biden to tell Joe.

 

 

Edited February 15, 2022 by bobo88

[Eric Gagen + 713]

11 minutes ago, bobo88 said:

The only Europe cares about is Germany. It's not just oil and gas.  Germany sells a lot of machinery and chemicals to Russia.  That's not going to change.

As for the rest of Europe I serious don't think they will want to pay $15 mmbtu.

 

None of it will change immediately, which is why I said as soon as it is practical.  It takes a while to freeze out a rouge state (which Russia would become) but it's extremely effective.  The future of Russia if it makes serious moves on any part of Ukraine is like that of present day Venezuela or Libya - exceedingly poor and unpleasant.  

 

Edited February 14, 2022 by Eric Gagen

[bobo88 + 58]

1 hour ago, Eric Gagen said:

None of it will change immediately, which is why I said as soon as it is practical.  It takes a while to freeze out a rouge state (which Russia would become) but it's extremely effective.  The future of Russia if it makes serious moves on any part of Ukraine is like that of present day Venezuela or Libya - exceedingly poor and unpleasant.  

 

Respectfully disagree for reasons I stated.

Especially when that rouge state supplies your oil, natural gas and food exports.

Venezuela and Libya problems are internal . It's there own making. 

Edited February 15, 2022 by bobo88

[surrept33 + 609]

2 hours ago, bobo88 said:

Germany sells a lot of machinery and chemicals to Russia.  That's not going to change. It will grow.

 

Depending on the scope of any sanctions, the US can and has issued extraterritorial limitations on foreign-manufactured items, the so called "foreign-produced direct product rule":

https://www.akingump.com/en/news-insights/international-trade-alert-ukraine-russia-crisis-assessing-possible-new-sanctions-and-export-controls-on-russia.html

It was used against, for example Huawei to limit its access to semiconductors from Taiwan. And that's not to say that Germany and the EU will issue their own sanctions jointly with the US.

I mean, Chancellor Scholz literally made it a point last week to reiterate that when he was in Washington:

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/02/07/remarks-by-president-biden-and-chancellor-scholz-of-the-federal-republic-of-germany-at-press-conference/

Quote

CHANCELLOR SCHOLZ:  (As interpreted.)  Thank you very much for your question.  I want to be absolutely clear: We have intensively prepared everything to be ready with the necessary sanctions if there is a military aggression against Ukraine. 

And this is necessary.  It is necessary that we do this in advance so that Russia can clearly understand that these are far-reaching, severe measures. 

It is part of this process that we do not spell out everything in public because Russia could understand that there might be even more to come.  And, at the same time, it is very clear we are well prepared with far-reaching measures.  We will take these measures together with our Allies, with our partners, with the U.S., and we will take all necessary steps.  You can be sure that there won’t be any measures in which we have a differing approach.  We will act together jointly.

(Speaks in English.) And possibly this is a good idea to say to our American friends: We will be united, we will act together, and we will take all the necessary steps.  And all the necessary steps will be done by all of us together. 

 

[bobo88 + 58]

32 minutes ago, surrept33 said:

Depending on the scope of any sanctions, the US can and has issued extraterritorial limitations on foreign-manufactured items, the so called "foreign-produced direct product rule":

https://www.akingump.com/en/news-insights/international-trade-alert-ukraine-russia-crisis-assessing-possible-new-sanctions-and-export-controls-on-russia.html

It was used against, for example Huawei to limit its access to semiconductors from Taiwan. And that's not to say that Germany and the EU will issue their own sanctions jointly with the US.

I mean, Chancellor Scholz literally made it a point last week to reiterate that when he was in Washington:

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/02/07/remarks-by-president-biden-and-chancellor-scholz-of-the-federal-republic-of-germany-at-press-conference/

 

Let me get this correct.

You are saying Germany , EU and Biden are going to stop Germany from selling German mfg goods/machinery to Russia ? ? ? 

This gets funnier every day .

 

 

 

Edited February 15, 2022 by bobo88

[Eric Gagen + 713]

25 minutes ago, bobo88 said:

Let me get this correct.

You are saying Germany , EU and Biden are going to stop Germany from selling German mfg goods/machinery to Russia ? ? ? 

This gets funnier every day .

 

 

 

It’s been done before, with apartheid South Africa (and Germany was the country at issue then too) It could happen again.  

[Eric Gagen + 713]

2 hours ago, bobo88 said:

Respectfully disagree for reasons I stated.

Especially when that rouge state supplies your oil, natural gas and food exports.

Venezuela and Libya problems are internal . It's there own making. 

Libya’s problems were caused directly by NATO intervention.  As the exporter of 4 million bbls a day of oil Venezuela thought the world would have to do business with it too.  They were wrong.   

[bobo88 + 58]

20 hours ago, Eric Gagen said:

It’s been done before, with apartheid South Africa (and Germany was the country at issue then too) It could happen again.  

Not if Germany wants an economy.

Without Russia natural gas they have none. 

Germany will go thru the motions but Russia knows where there heart is. . . in love with Natural gas.

Nordstream 2 is not operational yet . Biden will stop something that isn't even running yet. ! ! ! ! ! 

 

 

Edited February 15, 2022 by bobo88

[bobo88 + 58]

7 hours ago, Eric Gagen said:

Libya’s problems were caused directly by NATO intervention.  As the exporter of 4 million bbls a day of oil Venezuela thought the world would have to do business with it too.  They were wrong.   

Libya's problem was Hillary had to kill Khadafi even though he had an agreement with Regan and gave up their nuke program.

Khadafi was dropping the oil contracts with Britain and France and negotiating with China and Russia.  Hillary whipped up a false narrative and had the UN sanction a war.  Then Hillary cackled on tv " we went , we saw, we killed him" .  Funny one Hillary.

Khadafi was a bastard but he held the country of 28 desparate tribes together .

They haven't stopped the internal fighting since.

 

 

 

 

Edited February 15, 2022 by bobo88

[surrept33 + 609]

5 hours ago, bobo88 said:

Not of Germany wants an economy.

Without Russia natural gas they have none. 

You can say the same thing about Russia. There are still bottlenecks on how quickly they could export to Asia. In the end, in terms of energy, Russia and parts of the EU are still reliant on each other. 

Keep in mind the current German government, elected in last year's elections is not exactly like Angela Merkel, and is most definitely not like  Gerhard Schroder. It's a coalition government now, and the Greens are the primary junior partner. They ran on a platform that included killing Nord Stream 2 and greatly accelerating Germany's energy transition even faster than the current EU Green Plan. It seems likely that Germany, much more so in their past, is willing to accept short term pain to be more resilient in the long term for multiple reasons. 

[bobo88 + 58]

1 hour ago, surrept33 said:

You can say the same thing about Russia. There are still bottlenecks on how quickly they could export to Asia. In the end, in terms of energy, Russia and parts of the EU are still reliant on each other. 

Keep in mind the current German government, elected in last year's elections is not exactly like Angela Merkel, and is most definitely not like  Gerhard Schroder. It's a coalition government now, and the Greens are the primary junior partner. They ran on a platform that included killing Nord Stream 2 and greatly accelerating Germany's energy transition even faster than the current EU Green Plan. It seems likely that Germany, much more so in their past, is willing to accept short term pain to be more resilient in the long term for multiple reasons. 

Sorry, but I don't have time to read these long stream of consciousness.  

Some good points but stand by my posts.

Edited February 15, 2022 by bobo88

[ronwagn + 6,290]

10 hours ago, bobo88 said:

Not of Germany wants an economy.

Without Russia natural gas they have none. 

Japan is doing fine and has a much larger economy than Russia. It uses mostly LNG. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_Japan This graph does not include fuels used for most trucks, automobiles, etc. 

[bobo88 + 58]

2 hours ago, ronwagn said:

Japan is doing fine and has a much larger economy than Russia. It uses mostly LNG. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_Japan This graph does not include fuels used for most trucks, automobiles, etc. 

 

They use LNG because they live on an island. Pipeline is not an option for Japan.   Are they going to build a under water pipeline from Houston to Japan ?  I'm being sarcastic but energy costs will go up substantially in Germany.  I'll bet the farm Germany will be using Russian energy now and in the future. 

Edited February 15, 2022 by bobo88

[Boat + 1,325]

On 2/14/2022 at 4:46 PM, bobo88 said:

The only Europe that Putin cares about is Germany. It's not just oil and gas.  Germany sells a lot of machinery and chemicals to Russia.  That's not going to change. It will grow.

As for the rest of Europe I serious don't think they will want to pay $15 mmbtu for natural gas.

What are Russia's exports? Oil, gas, agriculture (wheat, barley, corn, seed oils, ect) 

China will buy all the oil, gas and agriculture Russia produces.  

China and Egypt are Russia's biggest Agri buyers.  Not going to stop.

Brandon will throw some sanctions at Russia including banking sanctions. Putin will live with it.

Russia sells 1.5 million bbls/day of diesel to U.S.  They actually sell it to the oil companies that sell it to the Northeast.  It's the triangle trade.  It allows oil companies to avoid paying income tax on the sale. 

Bet you the diesel continues flowing to U.S. from Russia. 

I'm not routing for Putin. He is a despot. I wish he would leave the corrupt Ukraine's alone. But I don't know why the U.S. has to act like they care and waste time and billions on this place.Europe doesn't care why should U.S. ?

There is a world war going on for economic growth and security.  China, Germany and even Russia are engaged.

The Woke U.S is losing this war.

Biden's Party is still fighting the Soviet Union and enriching themselves in China. 

Somebody please have Jill Biden to tell Joe.

 

 

30% of the refining capacity in the US is owned by foreign countries. So who are those imports going to? Venezuela not only has refineries but a huge network of gas stations. The Saudi has the largest refinery in the US and of course imports oil to export out in this part of the world. Your pulling idiot political bs rhetoric. Hell it’s the oil business and the automotive business that is the financial cornerstone of the Republican Party who’s oligarchs worked out all these foreign deals while the redneck rank and file remain ignorant of energy policy and who controls it. This bobo has no clue it’s who is in charge of the typical lies coming from the international oil patch. At this moment the world is scraping together FF energy to take Putins market. How long will it take Putin to lose that 1/2 trillion per year?

[ronwagn + 6,290]

28 minutes ago, bobo88 said:

 

They use LNG because they live on an island. Pipeline is not an option for Japan.   Are they going to build a under water pipeline from Houston to Japan ?  I'm being sarcastic but energy costs will go up substantially in Germany.  I'll bet the farm Germany will be using Russian energy now and in the future. 

They need to learn to mine methane hydrates, and have been working on it. They can certainly invest in energy also. If Putin leaves Ukraine alone and makes friends then he is sitting on a lot of money. I only hope it benefits his own Russian people and not just his cronies. 

Xi needs to leave Taiwan alone and make friends instead of enemies also. He has to meet the needs of the Chinese and other peoples within greater China. That is a huge job. 

Edited February 15, 2022 by ronwagn

[Boat + 1,325]

https://www.eia.gov/opendata/embed.php?type=chart&series_id=PET.WRPNTUS2.4
 

You guys need to look at this chart. Learn what it says. Net petroleum exports from the US. This is not imports. This is what I have been saying for years. If the US wanted to we could kill 1/3 of our refining capacity/foreign shyt, kill most of all foreign imports. The US produces enough FF for our own consumption. That’s not a Republican talking point but it’s the truth. 

Edited February 15, 2022 by Boat

[bobo88 + 58]

9 minutes ago, Boat said:

30% of the refining capacity in the US is owned by foreign countries. So who are those imports going to? Venezuela not only has refineries but a huge network of gas stations. The Saudi has the largest refinery in the US and of course imports oil to export out in this part of the world. Your pulling idiot political bs rhetoric. Hell it’s the oil business and the automotive business that is the financial cornerstone of the Republican Party who’s oligarchs worked out all these foreign deals while the redneck rank and file remain ignorant of energy policy and who controls it. This bobo has no clue it’s who is in charge of the typical lies coming from the international oil patch. At this moment the world is scraping together FF energy to take Putins market. How long will it take Putin to lose that 1/2 trillion per year?

Boat 

Serious question.

What are you arguing about ?

What's your point ? 

Thanks in advance.

Hillary 2024 (that's if Federal Prosecutor Durham doesn't send her to Jail)

 

[bobo88 + 58]

18 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

They need to learn to mine methane hydrates, and have been working on it. They can certainly invest in energy also. If Putin leaves Ukraine alone and makes friends then he is sitting on a lot of money. I only hope it benefits his own Russian people and not just his cronies. 

Xi needs to leave Taiwan alone and make friends instead of enemies also. He has to meet the needs of the Chinese and other peoples within greater China. That is a huge job. 

Japan gets reasonably priced LNG from the Ausies . 

Agree Putin should leave Ukraine alone but he won't.  Oil, gas and Agri exports could help build an economy.  They need to cut down on the vodka. Drinking is a problem. 

Xi should leave Taiwan alone.  I think he will for now. He's doing a decent job with the economy it's a big job. Between 8 hundred million and 9 hundred million Chinese living as low income . Plus U.S. politicians that are on the Chinese payroll like Biden's family, McConnell's family and Pelosi's family need to be called out, to mention just a few. 

Remember Joe during the campaign, "Come on folks, China is not competition for the United States"

Edited February 15, 2022 by bobo88

[Boat + 1,325]

3 minutes ago, bobo88 said:

Japan gets reasonably priced LNG from the Ausies . 

Agree Putin should leave Ukraine alone but he won't.  Oil, gas and Agri exports could help build an economy.  They need to cut down on the vodka. Drinking is a problem. 

Xi should leave Taiwan alone.  I think he will for now. He's doing a decent job with the economy it's a big job. Between 8 hundred million and 9 hundred million Chinese living as low income .

It’s mostly Russians and Muslims guilty of manipulating the oil/ gas price and disrupting the poor. 

[bobo88 + 58]

3 minutes ago, Boat said:

It’s mostly Russians and Muslims guilty of manipulating the oil/ gas price and disrupting the poor. 

You're giving Russia much much more credit than they deserve.

 

I have to go guys . Be back tomorrow.

Does Putin go into Ukraine tomorrow ?

Edited February 16, 2022 by bobo88

[surrept33 + 609]

15 hours ago, bobo88 said:

Libya's problem was Hillary had to kill Khadafi even though he had an agreement with Regan and gave up their nuke program.

Khadafi was dropping the oil contracts with Britain and France and negotiating with China and Russia.  Hillary whipped up a false narrative and had the UN sanction a war.  Then Hillary cackled on tv " we went , we saw, we killed him" .  Funny one Hillary.

Khadafi was a bastard but he held the country of 28 desparate tribes together .

They haven't stopped the internal fighting since.

I don't think the US or NATO intervening in Libya was good, but it happened AFTER there was already civil war in the country. It was Libyans themselves who rose against Khadafi after being fed up after almost 4 decades under him. No guarantee which side would have won - it was the arab spring and Libya was not the only government toppled.

Libya only formally gave up their nuclear weapons program in 2006 btw because the state of industry in the country was in a sorry state despite all of the oil wealth.

[bobo88 + 58]

11 hours ago, surrept33 said:

I don't think the US or NATO intervening in Libya was good, but it happened AFTER there was already civil war in the country. It was Libyans themselves who rose against Khadafi after being fed up after almost 4 decades under him. No guarantee which side would have won - it was the arab spring and Libya was not the only government toppled.

Libya only formally gave up their nuclear weapons program in 2006 btw because the state of industry in the country was in a sorry state despite all of the oil wealth.

Trying to get France to help with a mission was a first.  France wouldn't let U.S. planes fly over their country after Libya took down Pan Am plane. (even though France was a NATO member)

Then years later France didn't even wait for the UN security council vote to be finalized to send war planes toward Libya. This was France a member of NATO.  

Like I've said before NATO IS WORTHLESS. THEY JUST WANT TO SUCK OFF BIDEN'S TEAT.

Regan dropped a couple of minute man missiles on him. He  rethought his commitment to the nuke program.  Unfortunately one of his son's was killed by one. 

As for Libya. Most of the countries in the region seem to have Autocratic Strong-Man leaders.  It's about their culture I guess.  I don't know. 

 

Edited February 16, 2022 by bobo88