Eyes Wide Open + 3,555 March 2, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, Andrei Moutchkine said: Old Europe revealed itself as tentacles of the same criminal syndicate. Neither US nor Russian military believes in MAD. It is rational to hold weapons capable of destroying the other guy and getting away with it. Putin Declares a Nuclear Alert, and Biden Seeks De-escalation When the Russian leader ordered his nuclear forces into “special combat readiness,” the U.S. could have gone on high alert. Instead, the administration tried not to inflame him. What has been done and cannot be undone. "Neither US nor Russian military believes in MAD. It is rational to hold weapons capable of destroying the other guy and getting away with it." We are In agreement, it would seem Putin is not paying attention. Are you? It will be most interesting to see how Putin is dealt with..... Another upstart that made a mess of things....internationally. Jeffrey Epstein Dead in Suicide at Jail, Spurring Inquiries A new Europe' united against Russia — even neutral Switzerland Germany, Switzerland and Sweden set aside historic nonaggression policies to join a united European front against Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Edited March 2, 2022 by Eyes Wide Open Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
surrept33 + 612 st March 3, 2022 It feels like despite there not being an oil embargo, there is already an oil embargo de facto, at least from Europe against Russia. It'll be interesting to see how prices change. Quote Michael Tran, analyst at RBC Capital Markets, said traders were running into difficulty obtaining letters of credit — bank documents used on behalf of a buyer that act as a guarantee of payment to a seller — to purchase Russian oil. “This will probably remain the case as potential buyers struggle to secure guarantees from banks,” he said. “Tanker rates are \[soaring\] as consuming countries scramble to secure physical barrels from elsewhere. ”One big energy trader added that “banks are taking a very hard line . . . they don’t want to finance the purchase of Russian crude”. “The market’s critically depleted inventories and thinning spare capacity levels in the face of a record long unresolved deficit ultimately leaves one lever to rebalance oil markets — demand destruction.” https://www.ft.com/content/dc93a656-5305-4642-9bc5-6922e33faa06 1 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Boat + 1,325 RG March 3, 2022 Why GDP matters in time if war? A javelin tank killer is $175,000. You can kill a tank from 1/2-.75 mile away weighing around 50 lb. So reasonable portable. I say get the rocket scientist Musk involved. I bet he can improve all the metrics and do it for much less. A poor man’s war can kill anything on the ground with Precision. Let’s get er done American. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Andrei Moutchkine + 828 March 3, 2022 (edited) 16 hours ago, Strangelovesurfing said: I'm bracing for the US/Canadian petrochemical industry to maximize production in quick order. They will do mighty fine with all the new customers wanting secure, reliable suppliers. Watch the drill rig numbers sky-rocket the next few months, $100 oil = frackathon. Cost of production lower (and falling) than your beloved motherland with fracking technology constantly improving, Canada has all the heavy oil anybody ever needs. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZqlNPakK8BY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=greGtmEBL3o This will also accelerate the shift to electric vehicles, I can see the new campaigns now, "Uncle Sam says It's your patriotic duty to buy an electric truck and starve Putin of his war chest". Two million Ford electrics per year by 2026, add in Tesla, GM and the rest, you'll have decreasing oil consumption YoY, meaning more oil for export. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/02/ford-plans-to-produce-2-million-evs-generate-10percent-operating-profit-by-2026.html?&qsearchterm=ford ev The world has options now, Russia needs to sell all it can while it can. So much for Russia's eternal embrace with China, they're back-peddling so fast they might fall over. Once again Mackinder has been proven wrong, all hail Mahan. Highly doubt the lower price of oil. Oil companies were as profitable as they are under IMF "budget rule" capping the profits at something like $42/brl. Incidentally, this is the source of the FX reserve you claimed to have appropriated. Should this be so, it looks pretty bad for the IMF. Also note that in the recent 3-way Mexican standoff between US fracking, Saudis and Russia, Russia came out on top. Canada has bitumen, not oil. Worst EROI in the world. Will your electric cars still use plastic switchgear, or environmentally friendly cardboard? Plastics = petrochemicals = heavy crude again. Sorry, I saw Zeihan and stopped watching. Is he supposed to be a petrochemical expert now, too? The other good options you got are Venezuela and Iran. Maybe Saudis, but only if heavy sells at a premium to light, which is barely ever the case. What kind of options you got for diesel, to operate heavy machinery, say dozerrs? What about aviation kerosene? (also, Pentagon's all-time favorite fuel) You need heavy crude for that, again. Your own premium light and sweet is best for gasoline, but nothing else. Real world oil is not a commodity play. Edited March 3, 2022 by Andrei Moutchkine 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Andrei Moutchkine + 828 March 3, 2022 8 minutes ago, Boat said: Why GDP matters in time if war? A javelin tank killer is $175,000. You can kill a tank from 1/2-.75 mile away weighing around 50 lb. So reasonable portable. I say get the rocket scientist Musk involved. I bet he can improve all the metrics and do it for much less. A poor man’s war can kill anything on the ground with Precision. Let’s get er done American. New Javelins are over twice as expensive, I think. Not really twice as good. You CANNOT kill a tank 75 miles away with anything hand-held. You won't even see one. The visual horizon from a person's height is about 6km away on a flat plane. Beyond that, and you are some kind of man-portable AWACS. Musk is not a "rocket scientist", if there ever was such a thing. Rocket entrepreneur? You need to improve just one metric - the price. For much less, if you want. Can Musk improve the price for less? Other than this, not that much to improve. I think ever better Javelins might be subject to the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hedonic_index A significant contribution to US GDP being larger than anybody else's in peacetime already. AFAIK, no other nation uses these in calculations of its GDP. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Strangelovesurfing + 737 JD March 3, 2022 14 minutes ago, Andrei Moutchkine said: Incidentally, this is the source of the FX reserve you claimed to have appropriated. I haven't appropriated any funds, various governments have. If you notice I don't write down "You're attacking Ukraine" I write "Your KGB buddies just started a civil war in the Soviet Union". Maybe I'm ASSuming here but is it safe to say you didn't actually personally attack any Ukrainians? 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Andrei Moutchkine + 828 March 3, 2022 39 minutes ago, surrept33 said: It feels like despite there not being an oil embargo, there is already an oil embargo de facto, at least from Europe against Russia. It'll be interesting to see how prices change. https://www.ft.com/content/dc93a656-5305-4642-9bc5-6922e33faa06 Very honest plot where y-axis zero is specifically at -$20. How are they calculating the brl price? Most Urals isn't sold on the spot market, but via long term contracts and distributed via https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Druzhba_pipeline It is much cheaper (and quicker) than shipping, hence the discount. Gazprom's pipelines for gas are relative chump change in comparison. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Andrei Moutchkine + 828 March 3, 2022 4 minutes ago, Strangelovesurfing said: I haven't appropriated any funds, various governments have. If you notice I don't write down "You're attacking Ukraine" I write "Your KGB buddies just started a civil war in the Soviet Union". Maybe I'm ASSuming here but is it safe to say you didn't actually personally attack any Ukrainians? There is no legal basis for expropriating assets of a central bank anywhere in international law. Those are supposed to be immune even against their own government. It is not my KGB buddies, but your CIA ones. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jay McKinsey + 1,491 March 3, 2022 3 minutes ago, Andrei Moutchkine said: There is no legal basis for expropriating assets of a central bank anywhere in international law. Those are supposed to be immune even against their own government. It is not my KGB buddies, but your CIA ones. Another of your pathetic claims. Provide a citation to where freezing central bank assets is prohibited in international law. 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Strangelovesurfing + 737 JD March 3, 2022 (edited) 4 hours ago, Andrei Moutchkine said: Canada has bitumen, not oil. Worst EROI in the world. Will your electric cars still use plastic switchgear, or environmentally friendly cardboard? Plastics = petrochemicals = heavy crude again. Sorry, I saw Zeihan and stopped watching. Is he supposed to be a petrochemical expert now, too? Yes, plastic uses 8-10% of oil production, which equals about ~10-12% of daily production. Many single use plastics will end up being made with mushrooms soon anyway. It won't be cheaper but it will degrade. https://daily.jstor.org/company-uses-mushrooms-grows-plastic-alternatives/ Plastic won't save Russia. The only real money maker for Russia is oil and gas, which happens to be the exact thing people want to move away from. This will accelerate the adoption of electric transportation. Whenever people go to a dealership many will now pay more due to the images of Ukrainians being blown apart searing their memory. Russia can carpet bomb the cities and turn them into Stalingrad 1943 but what do you end up winning? Zeihan compiles facts/statistics/opinion and puts it in an easily to understand construct. You don't like it because he lays out the reality of Russia. Russia's rivers are useless for commerce and it's geography is disadvantageous, and that's being kind. Edited March 3, 2022 by Strangelovesurfing 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Strangelovesurfing + 737 JD March 3, 2022 (edited) 24 minutes ago, Andrei Moutchkine said: There is no legal basis for expropriating assets of a central bank anywhere in international law. Those are supposed to be immune even against their own government. It is not my KGB buddies, but your CIA ones. My CIA buddies caused Russia to invade Ukraine? Seems awfully easy to manipulate Russia's current leadership into making catastrophic self-inflicted wounds. Are you sure you don't want to loose such easily duped individuals? Isn't Russia a surpassingly powerful country? Putin has no agency, so he's America's puppet? For the record I don't know anyone in the CIA or any government entity other than run-of-the-mill bureaucrats for building permitting etc. Edited March 3, 2022 by Strangelovesurfing Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Boat + 1,325 RG March 3, 2022 1 hour ago, Andrei Moutchkine said: New Javelins are over twice as expensive, I think. Not really twice as good. You CANNOT kill a tank 75 miles away with anything hand-held. You won't even see one. The visual horizon from a person's height is about 6km away on a flat plane. Beyond that, and you are some kind of man-portable AWACS. Musk is not a "rocket scientist", if there ever was such a thing. Rocket entrepreneur? You need to improve just one metric - the price. For much less, if you want. Can Musk improve the price for less? Other than this, not that much to improve. I think ever better Javelins might be subject to the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hedonic_index A significant contribution to US GDP being larger than anybody else's in peacetime already. AFAIK, no other nation uses these in calculations of its GDP. Musk blasts off almost weekly while the impotent Russians are lucky to get it up once a year. Lol And he does it much cheaper. I said the javelin has a tank range of 3/4 of a mile. You tell me a anti tank hand can’t kill from 75 miles. Obviously the infrastructure in your brain is loose. Don’t you have a set screw to tighten? Check yourself out. Borrow some tools. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
notsonice + 1,266 DM March 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, Boat said: Musk blasts off almost weekly while the impotent Russians are lucky to get it up once a year. Lol And he does it much cheaper. I said the javelin has a tank range of 3/4 of a mile. You tell me a anti tank hand can’t kill from 75 miles. Obviously the infrastructure in your brain is loose. Don’t you have a set screw to tighten? Check yourself out. Borrow some tools. Javelins in the field are good for 2 miles ......just the manufactures states they are good to 2500 meters which is 1.5 miles. The guys in the tank??? will never see where it came from. 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
notsonice + 1,266 DM March 3, 2022 1 hour ago, Andrei Moutchkine said: Very honest plot where y-axis zero is specifically at -$20. How are they calculating the brl price? Most Urals isn't sold on the spot market, but via long term contracts and distributed via https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Druzhba_pipeline It is much cheaper (and quicker) than shipping, hence the discount. Gazprom's pipelines for gas are relative chump change in comparison. no one is buying Russian oil today....no one ....Traders have stopped trading it. Tanker companies will not transport it... and longshoremen around the world will not unload it . Putin screwed himself and all Russians. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Boat + 1,325 RG March 3, 2022 4 minutes ago, notsonice said: Javelins in the field are good for 2 miles ......just the manufactures states they are good to 2500 meters which is 1.5 miles. The guys in the tank??? will never see where it came from. Those javelins are $175,000. The below Carl Gustov are like $20,000/$3000 per round. But you have to get much closer. Every adult could be on a 2 person team at that price. Crank up the factories. This is what we do. This is what we’re good at. If you have a fighter, equip them with much better weapons. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Boat + 1,325 RG March 3, 2022 Your best soldiers get the javelins. Sorry, that’s how it needs to work. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Boat + 1,325 RG March 3, 2022 10 minutes ago, notsonice said: no one is buying Russian oil today....no one ....Traders have stopped trading it. Tanker companies will not transport it... and longshoremen around the world will not unload it . Putin screwed himself and all Russians. I hope your right. Got any fresh data? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
notsonice + 1,266 DM March 3, 2022 3 minutes ago, Boat said: I hope your right. Got any fresh data? March 1, 20223:48 PM MSTLast Updated a day ago Energy U.S. has not sanctioned Russian oil but traders avoiding it By Jarrett Renshaw and Laura Sanicola WASHINGTON, March 1 (Reuters) - U.S. traders in the nation’s largest oil hubs have cautiously put imports from Russian companies on hold, even though the White House has said oil sales are not the target of sanctions. The response from traders means sanctions have disrupted energy markets more than expected following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Crude futures have soared above $100 a barrel even though the United States and its NATO allies have not yet blocked Russian oil sales, worried it could feed inflation. President Joe Biden's administration has stated it could block Russian oil if Russia continues its aggression against Ukraine. Some lawmakers from both major U.S. political parties are pressing for an outright ban on Russian imports, but cutting off that supply could cause U.S. gasoline prices to surge - while Russia keeps selling oil to China or other nations. Company executives and individual traders at hubs in New York and the U.S. Gulf say they are worried Washington could authorize additional moves, and also do not want to be seen as funding the invas "People are not touching Russian barrels. You may see some on the water right now, but they were bought prior to the invasion. There won’t be much after that," said one New York Harbor trader. "No one wants to be seen buying Russian products and funding a war against the Ukrainian people," he added. Russia is one of the world's largest petroleum exporters, sending 4 to 5 million barrels per day of oil and 2 to 3 million bpd of refined products to other markets. The country invaded Ukraine last week, drawing international sanctions and worldwide condemnation. Moscow calls the action a "special operation." read more Senator Ed Markey, a Democrat from Massachusetts, said U.S. purchases of Russian oil in 2021 would have delivered an estimated $17.4 billion to that nation. "We cannot criticize Europe for its reliance on Russian energy, as we pour dirty oil money into Russia," he said in a Tuesday statement. BUYERS WAVER Since the United States and its allies blocked certain Russian banks' access to the SWIFT payment system that helps international trade flow smoothly, Russian companies have struggled to find bidders for their oil and tankers to transport it. read more Washington and allies have yet to release a list of which banks will be impacted by the SWIFT block, an uncertainty that has pushed possible buyers from the market. The United States on average bought about 76,000 barrels of crude a day from Russia in 2020, according to U.S. Energy Department data, less than what it bought from several countries including Canada and Mexico. The United States is a leading importer of Russian fuel oil and vacuum gas oil , according to data from traders and Refinitiv Eikon vessel tracking systems. Sarah Emerson, president at ESAI Energy, said it was not surprising that trading houses and refiners are shunning Russian oil, given lack of clarity around sanctions on banking and other measures that make it harder to enact transactions. About 10% of Russia's oil exports have been hit, initial ESAI estimates show. But Russia’s large footprint in the global market makes it unlikely that it could be frozen out entirely. "The big players can be out of the market, but there’s not enough oil out there for everyone to get out,” Emerson said. Aversion to Russian oil has left millions of barrels of Russian crude in limbo. Trading merchants have struggled to sell Urals crude cargoes for loading in mid-March from Russia's Baltic ports as prices dropped to their lowest level in the post-Soviet period. One Russian oil tanker, the NS Concord, is currently docked off the U.S. Gulf Coast and has not been fixed to any oil company or trading house, according to shipbrokers. Asian oil traders Reuters spoke to say they are still waiting for more clarity from banks and their respective governments on whether they can buy Russian oil cargoes. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
notsonice + 1,266 DM March 3, 2022 Shipping Companies Suspend Deliveries To Russia; Britain, Canada Close Ports To Russian Ships The Danish firm Maersk is one of three shipping companies that is suspending deliveries to and from Russia with the exception of essential supplies. (file photo) Three of the world’s largest container shipping companies say they are suspending nonessential deliveries to Russia, adding to a litany of economic punishments aimed at Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine. The shipping companies Maersk, MSC, and CMA CGM announced their move on March 1. The largest of the three, the Danish company Maersk, said all new bookings to and from Russia “will be temporarily suspended, with exception of foodstuffs, medical and humanitarian supplies.” Britain and Canada also closed ports to Russian ships on March 1. Britain banned any ship with Russian connections from entering its ports, while Ottawa said its ban also applied to fishing boats in its internal waters. British Transport Secretary Grant Shapps encouraged other countries to prohibit ships tied to Russia from using their ports. “We’ve just become the first nation to pass a law involving a total ban of all ships with any Russian connection whatsoever from entering British ports,” Shapps said on Twitter. Canadian Transport Minister Omar Alghabra said the ban would have “a significant economic impact on Russian boats or ships that are either owned or flagged by Russia." Alghabra told reporters in Ottawa that other countries are considering doing the same. Alghabra acknowledged that not many Russian vessels travel directly to Canada's ports, but said ships owned or flagged by Russia transport goods from other countries to Canada's Atlantic shores. The moves deepen Russia's isolation as its invasion of Ukraine sparks an exodus of international companies. To stem the stampede, Moscow said it would temporarily curb foreign investors from selling Russian assets. But energy firms BP and Shell have already decided to abandon their Russian businesses, while leading banks, airlines, automakers, and more have cut shipments and ended partnerships. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jay McKinsey + 1,491 March 3, 2022 2 hours ago, notsonice said: President Joe Biden's administration has stated it could block Russian oil if Russia continues its aggression against Ukraine. That is the critical part. With that uncertainty traders are afraid of buying a tanker load one day and not being able to deliver it the next. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jay McKinsey + 1,491 March 3, 2022 Italy has halted its share of the financing for the Arctic LNG 2 project, as Western companies and countries continue to sell their stakes in Russian energy projects, even absent of energy-related sanctions. Tankers carrying Russian LNG to Europe have changed course, oil majors such as Shell, BP, and Exxon have pulled out of Russian oil projects at great expense, and now, Italy has suspended its financing for the Arctic LNG 2 project, owned by Russian gas producer Novatek. The project, estimated at $21 billion, is just one of the many projects that is losing foreign backing, even though Russia’s energy exports have thus far been exempt from sanctions. Italy, fearing more sanctions, is now rethinking its loan to the project, which some estimate at $560 million. Italy had only recently decided to help finance the project. The loan for the project had not yet been dispersed. The agreement to finance part of the project, however, remains intact. The latest move highlights just how much of a pariah Russia has become on the world stage after its invasion of Ukraine, and could put a damper on some of Russia’s energy projects. Arctic LNG 2 was destined to be up and running by 2023, reaching full capacity by 2026. Arctic LNG 2 is expected to produce 20 million tonnes of LNG annually. https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Italy-Halts-Funding-For-21-Billion-Arctic-LNG-2-Project.html Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jay McKinsey + 1,491 March 3, 2022 Shell abandons Russian oil and replaces it with Australian wind 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Rob Plant + 2,756 RP March 3, 2022 14 hours ago, surrept33 said: https://www.axios.com/united-nations-ukraine-russia-141-55872481-a143-4423-9d3d-80450f01c754.html Surprised serbia voted yes. Yep sort of disagrees with Andrei's opinion "the rest of the world is with Russia, get your head from out your ass" I would suggest he removes his own head from his own ass. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Rob Plant + 2,756 RP March 3, 2022 13 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said: Another of your pathetic claims: 141 countries vote to condemn Russia at UN 141 countries voted in favor of a UN General Assembly resolution "deploring" Russia's aggression against Ukraine and demanding the immediate and complete withdrawal of all Russian forces from Ukrainian territory. Four countries joined Russia in voting against the resolution — Belarus, North Korea, Eritrea and Syria — while 35 abstained. The most telling statistic here is China sat on the fence and abstained, clever move! China's unwillingness to back Russia and Putin is a big deal, China will watch all of this play out and then befriend whoever comes out on top. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Rob Plant + 2,756 RP March 3, 2022 11 hours ago, Andrei Moutchkine said: Old Europe revealed itself as tentacles of the same criminal syndicate. All except 4 countries of the world disagree with you! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
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