China Declared Its Russia Friendship Had ‘No Limits.’ It’s Having Second Thoughts.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-russia-xi-putin-ukraine-war-11646279098

 

China Declared Its Russia Friendship Had ‘No Limits.’ It’s Having Second Thoughts.

Xi Jinping wanted Vladimir Putin to join in a united front against the U.S., and he got it Feb. 4. Now the Ukraine war threatens to undo Beijing’s yearslong effort to become a world leader.

Now Russia has limited its customer base so will have to bargain for a lower price. RCW

[Meredith Poor + 895]

If China has economic and financial interests 'everywhere', any disturbance in the geopolitical fabric threatens those interests. It doesn't matter whether this is in the Middle East, Central Asia, Africa, or South America.

Every labor-hour and every ruble/RMB/dollar spent on military operations in the Ukraine is a currency unit not spent raising wheat, pumping oil, shipping commercial goods, and flying commercial aircraft. If China has agricultural and industrial interests in the Ukraine, and these aren't functional because people are 'doing other things', they don't help China. If Chinese citizens are stuck in the crossfire, China risks seeing them flown home in body bags (on global video feeds).

The first lesson from this is figuring out who can be trusted. Putin is scoring zero on this metric. However, China's relationships with the rest of the world don't score much better. CCP senior people aren't particularly known for introspection. There is a point at which it might be a good idea to veg out somewhere and think about how things work.

[nsdp + 449]

On 3/4/2022 at 10:26 AM, Meredith Poor said:

If China has economic and financial interests 'everywhere', any disturbance in the geopolitical fabric threatens those interests. It doesn't matter whether this is in the Middle East, Central Asia, Africa, or South America.

Every labor-hour and every ruble/RMB/dollar spent on military operations in the Ukraine is a currency unit not spent raising wheat, pumping oil, shipping commercial goods, and flying commercial aircraft. If China has agricultural and industrial interests in the Ukraine, and these aren't functional because people are 'doing other things', they don't help China. If Chinese citizens are stuck in the crossfire, China risks seeing them flown home in body bags (on global video feeds).

The first lesson from this is figuring out who can be trusted. Putin is scoring zero on this metric. However, China's relationships with the rest of the world don't score much better. CCP senior people aren't particularly known for introspection. There is a point at which it might be a good idea to veg out somewhere and think about how things work.

This is an excellent message to the PRC about Taiwan and the Japanese islands between Okinawa and Taiwan. Also put and end to their sand .bar islands in the South China Sea  Xi needs to remember what happened to the PLA when they invaded North Vietnam in a border dispute in 1979.

[Tomasz + 1,608]

The West especially USA will sooner or later have to come to an agreement with Russia.

My plan is as follows - we retire Putin with immunity like Khrushchev. Navalny comes to power and we open up a new chapter.

Russia as such is economically weak, but it is very dangerous to the West as a vassal of China.

It has two things that the Chinese do not have - immeasurable number of natural resources needed by the Chinese economy and modern military technologies, such as engines for Chinese combat aircraft.

The West and Russia are doomed to get along unless the West wants Russia to become China's vassal because the West's rival is not Russia but China, and Russia, as a vassal, strongly strengthens China's position.

[Tomasz + 1,608]

The West (including Poland) has been cut off by the Russian-language media and internet portals for its citizens, and uniform propaganda reigns everywhere.

I do not have - due to this exclusion - access to Rusnet and the Russian media, but I guess it is the same.

This means that the world is divided into two hating and conflicting blocks, also in information terms, also divided by trade barriers (in the form of mutual boycotts).

Western countries (USA and Western Europe) will trade with themselves, having a separate media and information system from the Eurasian bloc (Russia-China).

Russia, in turn, will trade with China.

Some people will not even visit the other tourists.

The only element connecting the two blocks will therefore remain the war: military, commercial, civilization and information war.

The unity of mankind - informational, intellectual, civilizational, and perhaps even biological - has been questioned, and "the other man" has ceased to be a political opponent, becoming "the enemy of humanity".

The period of two blocks fighting for hegemony over the world begins, how similar to the struggle of communism against capitalism in 1945-1989.

In this sense, we have a death of #globalization and #globalism, which will be only half-globalization and half-globalism.

One world will be ruled by #KlausSchwab buddies and #Xi Jinping in the other

And you know what is the most tragic of all of this? In this new war, #Poland, my homeland, will be a front-line state, the "eastern flank of NATO".

Instead of using our location as a highway for trade from east to west, we will be a "crumple zone", a battelfield for other armies.

In B. Prusa's "Lalka", at a meeting of Polish entrepreneurs, Wokulski said to his contractors that due to such a specific location, Poland and Warsaw should be a commercial port between Moscow and Berlin.

Edited March 11, 2022 by Tomasz

[Tomasz + 1,608]

[Tomasz + 1,608]

And we have a war. Pretty weird. In Ukraine, Russian troops are carrying out a "special operation", and gas flows from Russia to Europe through Ukraine as if nothing had happened. And it is a much wider stream. Just before the invasion, 35 million m3 reached Slovakia, only to increase to 60 million m3 on the first day of the conflict, and then stable over 80 million m3.
However, gas, oil and coal are an exception in relations between Europe and Russia. In addition, there is a process of "great tearing apart". It is painful for both sides and violates the existing model of cooperation, which was very suitable for Europe: cheap Russian raw materials in exchange for European goods and technologies. This nature of the exchange perpetuated Russia's underdevelopment and brought good profits for Western industry. He was preferred from the beginning of this century, signing various agreements with a weakened Russia under the then pro-Western President Putin.
But even this kind of union did not suit America. It is worth remembering that America and Europe are military allies (NATO), but at the same time economic and, in part, political competitors. That is why every conflict fired in eastern Europe, including armed ones, dismantled these delicate structures between Europe and Russia. And so: the Orange Revolution of 2004, the Georgian War of 2008, Maidan 2014, and finally the war in Ukraine in 2022 and many smaller ones, were used to destroy these ties. Europe, playing the role of an observer and a fire-fighting fighter in them, tried to strain them as little as possible.
It was the same now, the pressure from overseas was tremendous. However, in the three months of preparations for the war, while Washington and Brussels were negotiating how deeply Europe would cut off from Russia, America failed to force the cut of the strongest link in the chain - gas, oil or coal supplies. This would take so much out of the European economic and energy bloodstream that the patient might not survive. The assurances that the gas would come from the allies did not help, because they were not real.
That is why we have energetic "business as usual". Europe cannot freeze or stop industry. However, the remaining economic ties are destroyed with precision and premeditation.
A huge number of Western companies gave up their business in Russia. First and foremost, global corporations who, if they have interests in the United States, must comply or they may regret it bitterly. That is why such energy giants as Exxon, BP and Shell have announced the sale of Russian assets. It is unreasonable from the business point of view, as their income from Russian deposits was a pearl in the crown of profits from oil and gas extraction.
Even the most powerful energy companies, which after the Ukrainian crisis in 2014 decided to undertake a joint venture with Gazprom and build the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, after several days hesitation, withdrew from this project. And the imposition of US sanctions on a Swiss company - the owner of the pipeline - resulted in 130 job losses and rumors of bankruptcy.
On the other hand, Russia was cut off from purchasing energy technologies in an attempt to block its economic growth and development.
Finance plays a huge role in building a new iron curtain. This is a huge advantage for the West, so the first battle was cutting off Russia's access to this resource. The ban on financing the Russian state debt and closing the access to the dollar to Russian banks (the two largest ones) cuts them off from world trade. What has been marked by the Kremlin as a red line, with which there is only war, i.e. the cut-off of Russia from the SWIFT financial system, has not been implemented. Guaranteeing the possibility of implementing energy transactions is a window in favor of the West, securing its resource interests.
Because in the other direction, even if Russia receives its dues, the West cannot buy anything for them. This is because everything that was the domain of Russian imports - machines, devices, IT products or technologies - was banned from export, as well as controlled and allowed.
Therefore, the new shape of economic exchange is extremely unfavorable for Russia. She sells real raw materials (though certainly not cheap), but in return she cannot buy anything that interests her. This heralds the next stage of the conflict, unless… Similar decisions after 2014, albeit on a much smaller scale, have not achieved their goals. About why this happened in the next column.

Andrzej Szczęśniak

Myśl Polska, no 11-12 (March 13-20, 2022)

https://myslpolska.info/2022/03/11/szczesniak-wielkie-rozrywanie/

 

[Boat + 1,324]

4 hours ago, Tomasz said:

The West especially USA will sooner or later have to come to an agreement with Russia.

My plan is as follows - we retire Putin with immunity like Khrushchev. Navalny comes to power and we open up a new chapter.

Russia as such is economically weak, but it is very dangerous to the West as a vassal of China.

It has two things that the Chinese do not have - immeasurable number of natural resources needed by the Chinese economy and modern military technologies, such as engines for Chinese combat aircraft.

The West and Russia are doomed to get along unless the West wants Russia to become China's vassal because the West's rival is not Russia but China, and Russia, as a vassal, strongly strengthens China's position.

Did you just get 15 years in Russian prison for that?

[Boat + 1,324]

4 hours ago, Tomasz said:

The West (including Poland) has been cut off by the Russian-language media and internet portals for its citizens, and uniform propaganda reigns everywhere.

I do not have - due to this exclusion - access to Rusnet and the Russian media, but I guess it is the same.

This means that the world is divided into two hating and conflicting blocks, also in information terms, also divided by trade barriers (in the form of mutual boycotts).

Western countries (USA and Western Europe) will trade with themselves, having a separate media and information system from the Eurasian bloc (Russia-China).

Russia, in turn, will trade with China.

Some people will not even visit the other tourists.

The only element connecting the two blocks will therefore remain the war: military, commercial, civilization and information war.

The unity of mankind - informational, intellectual, civilizational, and perhaps even biological - has been questioned, and "the other man" has ceased to be a political opponent, becoming "the enemy of humanity".

The period of two blocks fighting for hegemony over the world begins, how similar to the struggle of communism against capitalism in 1945-1989.

In this sense, we have a death of #globalization and #globalism, which will be only half-globalization and half-globalism.

One world will be ruled by #KlausSchwab buddies and #Xi Jinping in the other

And you know what is the most tragic of all of this? In this new war, #Poland, my homeland, will be a front-line state, the "eastern flank of NATO".

Instead of using our location as a highway for trade from east to west, we will be a "crumple zone", a battelfield for other armies.

In B. Prusa's "Lalka", at a meeting of Polish entrepreneurs, Wokulski said to his contractors that due to such a specific location, Poland and Warsaw should be a commercial port between Moscow and Berlin.

Just move to Russia and thrive. Did you forget Japan, India and several other powers. You need to expand your world view. Russia is just a tiny blip on the economic radar screen.

[surrept33 + 609]

Meanwhile in Taiwan:

https://www.ibtimes.com/ukraine-energizes-taiwanese-70-people-now-willing-take-arms-3444380

Ukraine Energizes Taiwanese; 70% Of People Now Willing To Take Up Arms

Arecent poll conducted in Taiwan against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine has revealed that over 70% of the island's population is willing to take up arms to fight China in case of an invasion. 

The survey by the International Strategic Study Society revealed that those willing to fight the Chinese rose to 70% from 40.3% last December, hinting that Ukrainian resistance has energized Taiwan's people. 

The invasion has also made more people in favor of bringing in changes to reservist training and extending mandatory military service, reported South China Morning Post. The poll was carried out among 1,076 people, of which only 20.8% said they were not willing to fight against China. 

The director of the International Strategic Study Society, Wang Kung-yi, said there has been a sharp change in public perspective and it is related to Ukraine.

"Although most Taiwanese people do not agree that Ukraine today will become Taiwan tomorrow, they sympathize with the stress and suffering of the Ukrainian people in the face of Russia's invasion," Wang told the South China Morning Post. 

He added that the situation has influenced people to change their perspectives about the new reservist training program introduced by the government to improve combat readiness. 

Under the new program, the reservists will undergo two weeks of training rather than the current five-seven days and will spend more time on combat training, such as shooting pistols, rifles and machine guns to maintain basic combat skills. Over 70.4% of respondents supported the training program, while 19.1% of them were against it. 

Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen's suggestion to extend military service from four months to at least one year for men aged between 18 and 38 also found support in the poll. While close to 70% said they were in favor of the extension, 21% were against the idea.

Another significant detail revealed by the poll is how fewer Taiwanese people now believe that the U.S. would come to their aid. While over 55% of people believed in the U.S. support six months ago, the number plummeted to 42.7% in the recent poll. "This was due to the U.S. decision to not send forces to help Ukraine," Wang said. 

The survey also found that only 77.3% of Taiwanese people now support the idea of the two sides maintaining peaceful exchanges, as compared to 81.4% two years ago. However, only 16.1% supported the Tsai government's policy of "countering China to protect Taiwan."

 

[TailingsPond + 1,008]

On 3/11/2022 at 4:39 PM, Tomasz said:

 

My plan is as follows - we retire Putin with immunity like Khrushchev. Navalny comes to power and we open up a new chapter.

 

Good luck with that.

Edited March 22, 2022 by TailingsPond

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

On 3/11/2022 at 11:39 PM, Tomasz said:

My plan is as follows - we retire Putin with immunity like Khrushchev.

That will only happen if Putin is retired into a grave somewhere.

[Boat + 1,324]

Around the world people associate freedom with having a gun. Guns are worthless. You need a over the shoulder plane and tank killer for every able bodied adult and a drone for every family. Children and grandparents store and carry the ammo. No little red wagon, a missile on a mini scissor lift. 

[Boat + 1,324]

Even before this war I complained US weapon systems were outdated. Modern wars would be fought with drones and missiles. Thus making tanks, ships, helicopters, basically anything slow obsolete. I had assumed air superiority would not matter if large numbers of these missile related weapon systems were deployed. Ukraine is smoking the Russians without air superiority. Smaller numbers of drones and hand held missile launchers have proved to be very effective. If your weapon systems can operate a mile away or more your survivability chances soar. One aircraft carrier loaded with aircraft is 15 billion plus. Give Musk that 15 billion and let his engineers design a much cheaper set of product lines. He is Mr factory, the best in the history of the world. 
 

[Boat + 1,324]

The latest US weapon heading to Ukraine: a 2-foot long, 5-pound drone designed for one-way missions

Switchblade 600 

• It weighs up to 50 lbs 
• It can fly continuously for 40 minutes with a range above 25 miles
• It can cruise at a speed between 70mph to 115mpah.
• It is called a “loitering missile” as it can target armored vehicles.
  So if you can kill a tank for $6,000 a tank runs 2 million - 4 million. 

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

42 minutes ago, Boat said:

Even before this war I complained US weapon systems were outdated. Modern wars would be fought with drones and missiles. Thus making tanks, ships, helicopters, basically anything slow obsolete. I had assumed air superiority would not matter if large numbers of these missile related weapon systems were deployed. Ukraine is smoking the Russians without air superiority. Smaller numbers of drones and hand held missile launchers have proved to be very effective. If your weapon systems can operate a mile away or more your survivability chances soar. One aircraft carrier loaded with aircraft is 15 billion plus. Give Musk that 15 billion and let his engineers design a much cheaper set of product lines. He is Mr factory, the best in the history of the world. 
 

You still need nuclear subs with nuclear missiles though and they arent cheap

[Boat + 1,324]

So if 20 of these can get within 25 miles of say any Navy boat. Can they be stopped. How about 50. How about 100. This is why most of our current weapon systems are obsolete and we’re wasting billions. Yes, this means Biden and Trump are idiots. Congress……idiots. Iraq made this clear, yet most of the world…..idiots. Me…woke. Not an idiot. 700 billion deep state idiot money. We’ll some of our stuff is cutting edge and great. I could provide that military umbrella for our Allies and N America for 300 billion and no ground troops. Drones and missiles along with subs and stealth aircraft. We don’t need all those bases and human cannon fodder. This make ourselves into a target and then kill the offender with tech is so stupid and does not honor human life. Sorry, one of my rants.

[Boat + 1,324]

3 minutes ago, Rob Plant said:

You still need nuclear subs with nuclear missiles though and they arent cheap

I wish I knew about subs. I will assume without knowledge that they are stealthy and basically safe as a nuclear deterrent/ mutually assured destruction. Same with stealth tech avoiding any kind of missile. I don’t know, but will assume so for now. 

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

1 minute ago, Boat said:

I wish I knew about subs. I will assume without knowledge that they are stealthy and basically safe as a nuclear deterrent/ mutually assured destruction. Same with stealth tech avoiding any kind of missile. I don’t know, but will assume so for now. 

The new Dreadnought nuclear missile carrying sub has at full speed the signature the same as a dolphin, pretty damn difficult to find.

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2021/11/first-submarine-to-use-new-stealth-technology/

[Tomasz + 1,608]

US foreign policy is completely disjointed.

One side wants to destroy Russia and subjugate China.

Another side wants to destroy China and build bridges with Russia.

Neither side wants to see a China - Russia alliance.

Both sides can't see their objectives have failed.

[Tomasz + 1,608]

A request to China to let destroy Russia was best summed up by some chinese media official  LIU Xin刘欣 

Quote

Can you help me fight your friend so that I can concentrate on fighting you later?