"Russia will stop 'in a moment' if Ukraine meets terms - Kremlin" by Reuters via Yahoo News...but Reuters suddenly cut out the balanced part of the story.

[Tomasz + 1,608]

Excellent debate, but the topic is more complex than these greats had the time to explain.

Fundamentally, one side says we should listen to the concerns of this great power because not doing so will result in a continuing war regardless if they are right as not doing so will prolong the war and do more harm. The other side dismisses and ignores those concerns and says those concerns are not valid and thus we should not listen to them. The latter is more idealistic and wrong as it ultimately takes makes judgements on the concerns of Ukraine and Russia and considers one important and the other not.

This is the type of idealism that does not reflect reality and has shown to lead to utter failures and deaths from Afghanistan to Vietnam to Iraq to Grenada.\\

Moreover, NATO doesn't have to threaten invasion of Russia to threaten Russia. During the Cuban missile crisis, Cuba would not have invaded the US and had a right to their own security, but US said no. When socialists were voted into place in Latin America, the US also considered that a threat and took military action to remove them.

Russia does not have to fear invasion by NATO, but it does face national security concerns when NATO marches to their border. It is a military alliance not simply for defense, but it actively places US military troops and weapons in NATO countries while arming them and training them. This actively reduces Russia's nuclear deterrence and thus threatens Russia's national security.

This isn't hypothetical, but look at the troops and antimissile systems and radars in Poland and Romania. What was not mentioned was that all the promises to Putin that Ukraine would not join NATO were not trusted as everything said in the past from promises not to expand NATO was ignored. During the many meetings before the war started, Putin demanded written documents and not just spoken promises that Ukraine would not join, and Germany, France, the US, and NATO all refused.

 

At the end of the day, I can predict what will happen. Ukraine will become a failed state. Even looking objectively at Ukraine and Russia, Russia is so much larger and can beat down Ukraine until Russia is satisfied. We are expecting sanctions and NATO weapons to level the playing field as Russia's war factories aren't getting bombed, but Russia is a commodities based economy with nearly all the things like food and energy it has on it's own.

The fact that China, India, the entire Latin America, Africa, the Middle East and most of Asia isn't participating in the sanctions also means the sanctions won't hurt Russia as much as desired.

Meanwhile, the entire world, but especially Western Europe is facing an inflation crisis and a looming recession/stagflation if not depression.

What happens to Ukraine? Many of it's buildings are destroyed. Tax collection is non existent. Wheat, seed oils and soy is not being grown or shipped out, iron factories are shutdown, tourism is dead, etc.

And of course thousands are displaced or dead. They'll ask for more money and watch support slowly dry up.

Soon Ukrainians will realize that they were sold the promise that they join Europe and become wealthy like the Europeans by also joining NATO, but then got their country destroyed and people dead.

If they had followed the Minsk agreements that they had signed, they would have lost only Crimea, but the Donbass would have been still part of Ukraine, but simply autonomous. Now, it's likely that Russia will keep all their gains.

Edited May 23, 2022 by Tomasz

[Tomasz + 1,608]

If we talk about US policy helping Ukraine - this short fragment says it all for me

This guy is also formes US embassor to Russia. 

https://twitter.com/i/status/1528306562837917702

Kissinger summs it up\

 "To be an enemy of the US is dangerous, but to be a friend is fatal"?

Why?

I’ve come to believe WH was perfectly well aware Putin not bluffing when threaten invade Ukraine if US not promise no nato & US never had any intention of taking responsibility for ukr security via nato yet refused to promise this => walked us all into this war

Edited May 23, 2022 by Tomasz

[Tomasz + 1,608]

The plan was to use the conflict to destroy Russia's economy through the harshest possible sanctions. But the plan has backfired due to the international community refusing to go along with it, and a large part of the int community even blaming the US and NATO for the war.

[Tomasz + 1,608]

Finland and Sweden will be more lucky getting into NATO

The reason its different is simple. Finland doesn't have an invasion corridor into Russia's soft underbelly. The same invasion corridor historically used by every European power to ever invade Russia, French, Germans etc. Learn history mate.

Edited May 23, 2022 by Tomasz

[Tomasz + 1,608]

We  start with Kissinger so lets go to former POTUS Carter

This is what Jimmy Carter, former US Prez had to say -

(1) "Since 1979, do you know how many times China has been at war with anybody?" Carter asked. "None. And we have stayed at war."

(2) The U.S. has enjoyed only 16 years of peace in its 242-year history, making the country "the most warlike nation in the history of the world," Carter said.

(3) This is, he said, because of America's tendency to force other nations to "adopt our American principles."

[Tomasz + 1,608]

Of course, one can be glad that Russia will eventually be reduced to the status of a Chinese vassal. \\

Were it not for the fact for as Pole that Poland also seems to be one of the biggest losers in the Ukrainian crisis.

Meanwhile, Germany, for example, which allegedly compromised itself in the eyes of Europe, was granted permission to significantly expand the Bundeswehr.

According to Dr. Leszek Sykulski, the greatest threat to Poland is the federalization of Europe according to the German project.

Germany just got the possibility of a possible effective military enforcement of its implementation on the resistant Europe.

[Tomasz + 1,608]

Anyway, the conflict is only just unfolding from the Russian perspective

Russia and Ukraine are the largest wheat exporters in the world.

Ukraine is blocked by naval blockade and Russia has announced today that it is ready to negotiate with the West the conditions for the possible lifting of the embargo on Russian wheat exports in a year in which a record wheat harvest in Russia is expected to reach 87 million tons.

At that time, Kazakhstan blocked grain exports. Then India did the some.

 China has, by a strange coincidence, amassed record-breaking food supplies.

At the same time, two major wheat exporters, the USA and France, are facing a rather poor harvest.

At the same time, in a situation in which the president of Saudi Aramco announced today that in the world within a few months the so-called spare capacity on the crude oil market will practically disappear. I mean the prices will go even more up.

So if Russia really play hardball we might have some huge food crisis all over the world.

North Africa Nigeria Egipt Middle East Turkey. All these countries needs wheat to feed their population.

Last time it was Arab Spring - logical consequence is massive emigration to Europe.

 

[Boat + 1,325]

35 minutes ago, Tomasz said:

Anyway, the conflict is only just unfolding from the Russian perspective

Russia and Ukraine are the largest wheat exporters in the world.

Ukraine is blocked by naval blockade and Russia has announced today that it is ready to negotiate with the West the conditions for the possible lifting of the embargo on Russian wheat exports in a year in which a record wheat harvest in Russia is expected to reach 87 million tons.

At that time, Kazakhstan blocked grain exports. Then India did the some.

 China has, by a strange coincidence, amassed record-breaking food supplies.

At the same time, two major wheat exporters, the USA and France, are facing a rather poor harvest.

At the same time, in a situation in which the president of Saudi Aramco announced today that in the world within a few months the so-called spare capacity on the crude oil market will practically disappear. I mean the prices will go even more up.

So if Russia really play hardball we might have some huge food crisis all over the world.

North Africa Nigeria Egipt Middle East Turkey. All these countries needs wheat to feed their population.

Last time it was Arab Spring - logical consequence is massive emigration to Europe.

 

Your a little behind. Because of the Russia attack there will be many countries that will lack, wheat, corn, fertilizer etc. Hundreds of millions of poor spend like 80% of their income on food and already can’t pay for products that have more than doubled. Even where there is food, many will revolt because of prices. 

[Tomasz + 1,608]

Interesting, more and more mainstream US media are arguing in favor of a negotiated settlement with Russia

Leads to the paradoxical situation where US media favor ending the war more than European ones, despite the war affecting Europe much more negatively than the US.

I think one of the reasons is high  inflation.

 In this connection, I wonder about the mindset of some Europeans. Let me remind you that at the moment there is no embargo on Russian oil, and yet the prices of oil and especially diesel are what they are.

In this situation, allegedly all governments in Europe officialy want to take out the market another 3 million barrels of crude oil. All except the lonely Victor Orban.

Oficially for example Italy is suporting oil embargo. In reality in February 2022 before invasion Italy bought 110.000 barrels per day and in Aprill 450.000 barrels per day.

But unfortunately our polish PM is best one. Norway should share the "gigantic" profits it's made as a result of higher oil and gas prices, especially with Ukraine, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki says. 

Edited May 24, 2022 by Tomasz

[Tomasz + 1,608]

How the war seems to be going?

Deputies from the Zelensky party propose to allow commanders to KILL their soldiers in order to stop mass surrenders and flight from positions The bill has the number 7351 and was published on the official website of the Verkhovna Rada.

Its some kind of Stalin tradition. Last used in 1942. Famous order number 227

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Order_No._227

And maybe its only a project by now but thats not fake.

[frankfurter + 562]

On 5/23/2022 at 2:42 AM, Ron Wagner said:

It was a fair vote, and I would have voted the same. Business is business and should never have been restrained by the government. They should have fought for their rights and found ways around the oppressive government. Freedom first. 70% of Americans and Europeans support Ukraine and are willing to pay the economic price to help Ukraine destroy the Russian aggressors. 

https://ussanews.com/2022/05/21/pfizer-moves-to-dismiss-lawsuit-from-covid-19-vaccine-trial-citing-prototype-agreement/

and you say you are not enslaved?  your indoctrination redefines the word. assuming you are capable of thought, where do you suppose no accountability leads?

you support $40 billion, stolen from citizens, paid to Nazis. have you no regard for the 300k Americans who died in WW2?  no regard for your fellow citizen, millions of whom will driven to below the poverty line?  vile, utterly vile. 

 

[Ron Wagner + 714]

5 hours ago, Tomasz said:

Excellent debate, but the topic is more complex than these greats had the time to explain.

Fundamentally, one side says we should listen to the concerns of this great power because not doing so will result in a continuing war regardless if they are right as not doing so will prolong the war and do more harm. The other side dismisses and ignores those concerns and says those concerns are not valid and thus we should not listen to them. The latter is more idealistic and wrong as it ultimately takes makes judgements on the concerns of Ukraine and Russia and considers one important and the other not.

This is the type of idealism that does not reflect reality and has shown to lead to utter failures and deaths from Afghanistan to Vietnam to Iraq to Grenada.\\

Moreover, NATO doesn't have to threaten invasion of Russia to threaten Russia. During the Cuban missile crisis, Cuba would not have invaded the US and had a right to their own security, but US said no. When socialists were voted into place in Latin America, the US also considered that a threat and took military action to remove them.

Russia does not have to fear invasion by NATO, but it does face national security concerns when NATO marches to their border. It is a military alliance not simply for defense, but it actively places US military troops and weapons in NATO countries while arming them and training them. This actively reduces Russia's nuclear deterrence and thus threatens Russia's national security.

This isn't hypothetical, but look at the troops and antimissile systems and radars in Poland and Romania. What was not mentioned was that all the promises to Putin that Ukraine would not join NATO were not trusted as everything said in the past from promises not to expand NATO was ignored. During the many meetings before the war started, Putin demanded written documents and not just spoken promises that Ukraine would not join, and Germany, France, the US, and NATO all refused.

 

At the end of the day, I can predict what will happen. Ukraine will become a failed state. Even looking objectively at Ukraine and Russia, Russia is so much larger and can beat down Ukraine until Russia is satisfied. We are expecting sanctions and NATO weapons to level the playing field as Russia's war factories aren't getting bombed, but Russia is a commodities based economy with nearly all the things like food and energy it has on it's own.

The fact that China, India, the entire Latin America, Africa, the Middle East and most of Asia isn't participating in the sanctions also means the sanctions won't hurt Russia as much as desired.

Meanwhile, the entire world, but especially Western Europe is facing an inflation crisis and a looming recession/stagflation if not depression.

What happens to Ukraine? Many of it's buildings are destroyed. Tax collection is non existent. Wheat, seed oils and soy is not being grown or shipped out, iron factories are shutdown, tourism is dead, etc.

And of course thousands are displaced or dead. They'll ask for more money and watch support slowly dry up.

Soon Ukrainians will realize that they were sold the promise that they join Europe and become wealthy like the Europeans by also joining NATO, but then got their country destroyed and people dead.

If they had followed the Minsk agreements that they had signed, they would have lost only Crimea, but the Donbass would have been still part of Ukraine, but simply autonomous. Now, it's likely that Russia will keep all their gains.

No, Russia thought they could gain warm water ports and great agricultural land so they just thought they should be able to take it because Putin was just that stupid. Russia is not on a downward arc in history while Ukraine will be part of Europe. It will take time for them to recover from the damage done by Russia's missiles. Their Army cannot stand against Ukraine in the long run. The Russian people are forced to see the truth and many of the best are fleeing for Europe and other areas. China will be the main ally of Russia just as it is of North Korea. It will tell Russia what deals it will make and be their superior just like Tibet, Inner Mongolia, Manchuria, Xinjiang etc. 

Of course patriotic Russians may turn against Putin and establish a free nation. Then they will see a bright future instead of despair. 

Meanwhile the Stans of Central Asia have seen the weakness of Russia and are looking at all their options too.

 

 

https://docs.google.com/document/d/17mqP16qchaFQusxLExpY1EtKpkEMe6gkM-Vjv-Q636c/edit

Central Asia, The Stans

[Starschy + 211]

On 5/24/2022 at 3:24 AM, Tomasz said:

How the war seems to be going?

Deputies from the Zelensky party propose to allow commanders to KILL their soldiers in order to stop mass surrenders and flight from positions The bill has the number 7351 and was published on the official website of the Verkhovna Rada.

Its some kind of Stalin tradition. Last used in 1942. Famous order number 227

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Order_No._227

And maybe its only a project by now but thats not fake.

The Bill was denied by the Parlament.

[Starschy + 211]

At the moment secretly discussions about completing that War are in progress. The West knows for sure that Ukraine can't "win". But I think it will take some time. As long as Zelensky is in charge - the fight will go on. Even US Government was disappointed that their 40 Bio. effort is not working. Loosing Weapons in Ukraine means multiple Groups in Europe get those Weapons. Confirmed by Interpol and now the Swedish Government is covering that Point too.

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

On 4/5/2022 at 11:21 PM, notsonice said:

That sounds much like the Ukraine rigged overthrow of a democratically elected government by the CIA ?????

 

your tinfoil hat has a hole in it.

It was not specifically CIA, but all of the US government (and other Western ones) None of which is even a secret anymore.

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

On 5/24/2022 at 2:47 AM, Boat said:

Your a little behind. Because of the Russia attack there will be many countries that will lack, wheat, corn, fertilizer etc. Hundreds of millions of poor spend like 80% of their income on food and already can’t pay for products that have more than doubled. Even where there is food, many will revolt because of prices. 

Not because of the "Russia attack", but due to your sanctions preventing efficient distribution. Russia still does have the goods.

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

On 5/24/2022 at 6:46 AM, Ron Wagner said:

No, Russia thought they could gain warm water ports and great agricultural land so they just thought they should be able to take it because Putin was just that stupid. Russia is not on a downward arc in history while Ukraine will be part of Europe. It will take time for them to recover from the damage done by Russia's missiles. Their Army cannot stand against Ukraine in the long run. The Russian people are forced to see the truth and many of the best are fleeing for Europe and other areas. China will be the main ally of Russia just as it is of North Korea. It will tell Russia what deals it will make and be their superior just like Tibet, Inner Mongolia, Manchuria, Xinjiang etc. 

Of course patriotic Russians may turn against Putin and establish a free nation. Then they will see a bright future instead of despair. 

Meanwhile the Stans of Central Asia have seen the weakness of Russia and are looking at all their options too.

 

 

https://docs.google.com/document/d/17mqP16qchaFQusxLExpY1EtKpkEMe6gkM-Vjv-Q636c/edit

Central Asia, The Stans

Why don't we, the people, unite and overthrow the US government instead? On the account, it being the most corrupt and vicious organization out there, causing by far the most suffering in the world? I think anybody outside the "collective West" will agree with that assessment. Ergo, it is the US/West and not Russia that is going down. Patriotic Russians stand behind their government in this. Ukronazies have to go! About 1/3 of folks fighting for Russia right now  have a Ukrainian citizenship, BTW.