notsonice + 1,243 DM July 10, 2022 1 hour ago, Andrei Moutchkine said: You can legislate the exclusion of the Russian oil, but it is not the same as the "permanent market destruction" claimed by your article due to availability of a Mexican alternate. That was bullshit. The only market law is buy low, sell high. Incidentally, you will drop the ban eventually. Ukraine is not that dear to you. In fact, it only got any utility for as long as it provides for an irritation to Russia. Incidentally, you will drop the ban eventually????? I bet you Castro thought the US embargo on all things Cuba would end in the 60s...........60 years later not much easing and look at Cuba today............... So very healthy????? Russia is on the path of being the New Cuba....The world has more Oil than you think and with alternatives to gas powered vehicles coming on stream in a breakneck pace...Peak Oil is here and Russias vast oil reserves will never see the surface. Oil in the ground is worthless....oil pumped and with no buyer is worthless....Russia is fast becoming the New Cuba. Enjoy Putin is the new Castro. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Andrei Moutchkine + 828 July 10, 2022 1 hour ago, notsonice said: Incidentally, you will drop the ban eventually????? I bet you Castro thought the US embargo on all things Cuba would end in the 60s...........60 years later not much easing and look at Cuba today............... So very healthy????? Russia is on the path of being the New Cuba....The world has more Oil than you think and with alternatives to gas powered vehicles coming on stream in a breakneck pace...Peak Oil is here and Russias vast oil reserves will never see the surface. Oil in the ground is worthless....oil pumped and with no buyer is worthless....Russia is fast becoming the New Cuba. Enjoy Putin is the new Castro. Yes, you are unusually persistent about legislating against objective reality, but even you have to get a clue eventually. Cuba is doing fine, given the circumstances. Russia was under some kind of Western "sanctions" for the last few hundred years already. Since before there was Cuba, USA and oil industry. You can see that we are still around. In the longer run, was shaking Western colonial yoke likely more beneficial than harmful. Pretty much everything lost has already been replaced with domestic or Chinese stuff, and you are not coming back to the Russian market even if you wanted. Fuel for passenger cars is only one of oil's many uses. You haven't even started replacing the others. Ditto for natural gas. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NickW + 2,714 NW July 10, 2022 On 7/9/2022 at 1:02 AM, Andrei Moutchkine said: Most of the major Siberian rivers are hydropower free yet. This: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Penzhin_Tidal_Power_Plant_Project would be by far the largest single power plant in the world. Epic, yes. Joke? Not really. The biggest issue is that nobody around needs that much electricity yet. Could be used to generate huge quantities of ammonia and Hydrogen for export perhaps if Russia invested its resources in this instead of war...... 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Andrei Moutchkine + 828 July 10, 2022 17 minutes ago, NickW said: Could be used to generate huge quantities of ammonia and Hydrogen for export perhaps if Russia invested its resources in this instead of war...... They planned to before the war. For that, the "hydrogen economy" needs to turn out not to be a scam first. Personally, I think it is a scam. Otherwise, methane splits into half hydrogen and half acetylene. What do you think of acetylene economy instead? It is beastly stuff... Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NickW + 2,714 NW July 10, 2022 (edited) 24 minutes ago, Andrei Moutchkine said: They planned to before the war. For that, the "hydrogen economy" needs to turn out not to be a scam first. Personally, I think it is a scam. Otherwise, methane splits into half hydrogen and half acetylene. What do you think of acetylene economy instead? It is beastly stuff... I am inclined to agree as H2 is diffuclt to transport. My starting point would be ammonia - primarily for agriculture and displace the CH4 (which can be used for other purposes). Ammonia can be used as a fuel, indeed I believe the Russians had a fair amount of experience in this area. Diesel engines can be easily converted. In a post oil world one option would be to run tractors on Ammonia produced locally with wind turbines. For acetylene you would need a source of Carbon. Edited July 10, 2022 by NickW Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Andrei Moutchkine + 828 July 10, 2022 1 minute ago, NickW said: I am inclined to agree as H2 is diffuclt to transport. My starting point would be ammonia - primarily for agriculture and displace the CH4 (which can be used for other purposes). Ammonia can be used as a fuel, indeed I believe the Russians had a fair amount of experience in this area. Diesel engines can be easily converted. In a post oil world one option would be to run tractors on Ammonia produced locally with wind turbines. For acetylene you could need a source of Carbon. Ammonia is corrosive, significant changes required to combustion engines. You can easily burn acetylene incompletely, producing nasty soot, and call it "carbon capture" Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NickW + 2,714 NW July 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, Andrei Moutchkine said: Ammonia is corrosive, significant changes required to combustion engines. You can easily burn acetylene incompletely, producing nasty soot, and call it "carbon capture" A friend who is an Engineer at a Ford tractor plant tells me they regularly do set ups with Ammonia to run tractor engines and they dont require much modification. They also use a small quantity of diesel. To produce Acetylene from that Tidal plant you would have to expend a lot of energy obtaining the carbon (atmospheric CO2 capture) as Acetylene is C"H". Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Andrei Moutchkine + 828 July 10, 2022 (edited) 5 minutes ago, NickW said: A friend who is an Engineer at a Ford tractor plant tells me they regularly do set ups with Ammonia to run tractor engines and they dont require much modification. They also use a small quantity of diesel. To produce Acetylene from that Tidal plant you would have to expend a lot of energy obtaining the carbon (atmospheric CO2 capture) as Acetylene is C"H". I was talking about pyrolysis of methane, where half the product is hydrogen, and half - acetylene. It is an inherently cheaper source of hydrogen than electrolysis of water, because four hydrogens is better than two. Edited July 10, 2022 by Andrei Moutchkine Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jay McKinsey + 1,490 July 10, 2022 3 hours ago, Andrei Moutchkine said: I was talking about pyrolysis of methane, where half the product is hydrogen, and half - acetylene. It is an inherently cheaper source of hydrogen than electrolysis of water, because four hydrogens is better than two. Hydrogen from methane is pointless for a green economy without carbon capture and carbon capture makes the hydrogen more expensive than from electrolysis. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Andrei Moutchkine + 828 July 10, 2022 (edited) 7 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said: Hydrogen from methane is pointless for a green economy without carbon capture and carbon capture makes the hydrogen more expensive than from electrolysis. Like I said, half the product is acetylene according to 2CH4 = C2H2 + 3H2 which you can burn for a really nasty soot you can collect and call it carbon capture. Which is OK, because the whole H2 thing is a scam anyway... Edited July 10, 2022 by Andrei Moutchkine Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jay McKinsey + 1,490 July 10, 2022 6 hours ago, Andrei Moutchkine said: Yes, you are unusually persistent about legislating against objective reality, but even you have to get a clue eventually. Cuba is doing fine, given the circumstances. Russia was under some kind of Western "sanctions" for the last few hundred years already. Since before there was Cuba, USA and oil industry. You can see that we are still around. In the longer run, was shaking Western colonial yoke likely more beneficial than harmful. Pretty much everything lost has already been replaced with domestic or Chinese stuff, and you are not coming back to the Russian market even if you wanted. Fuel for passenger cars is only one of oil's many uses. You haven't even started replacing the others. Ditto for natural gas. You keep forgetting that we produce more oil and gas than Russia and the global oil demand for passenger cars is greater than total Russian output. The country who is going to show large decreases in oil demand first will be China where EV sales are doubling every year. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Andrei Moutchkine + 828 July 10, 2022 15 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said: You keep forgetting that we produce more oil and gas than Russia and the global oil demand for passenger cars is greater than total Russian output. The country who is going to show large decreases in oil demand first will be China where EV sales are doubling every year. Nonetheless, the global demand for oil and gas keeps going up, while oil supply already passed peak. You also happen to consume everything you produce and then some. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jay McKinsey + 1,490 July 10, 2022 Just now, Andrei Moutchkine said: Nonetheless, the global demand for oil and gas keeps going up, while oil supply already passed peak. You also happen to consume everything you produce and then some. You continue to be challenged by reality,The global demand for oil is still below 2019 and gas is expected to decrease this year, Natural gas demand is expected to decline in 2022 and remain subdued up to 2025. https://www.iea.org/news/global-natural-gas-demand-set-for-slow-growth-in-coming-years-as-turmoil-strains-an-already-tight-market We are net exporters of petroleum and natural gas. Natural Gas net exporter since 2017: Net Exporter of Petroleum: Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Andrei Moutchkine + 828 July 10, 2022 11 hours ago, notsonice said: Incidentally, you will drop the ban eventually????? I bet you Castro thought the US embargo on all things Cuba would end in the 60s...........60 years later not much easing and look at Cuba today............... So very healthy????? Russia is on the path of being the New Cuba....The world has more Oil than you think and with alternatives to gas powered vehicles coming on stream in a breakneck pace...Peak Oil is here and Russias vast oil reserves will never see the surface. Oil in the ground is worthless....oil pumped and with no buyer is worthless....Russia is fast becoming the New Cuba. Enjoy Putin is the new Castro. https://t.me/rasstrelny/13450 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
notsonice + 1,243 DM July 11, 2022 (edited) 11 hours ago, Andrei Moutchkine said: https://t.me/rasstrelny/13450 enjoy the decline of Russia................The New Cuba you can bet the reality in Russia is much worse, 20 percent drop this year in oil production is my bet .........permanent demand destruction AKA the Putin Way.... Yes, Russia will never recover from Putins mistakes................Russia will look like Cuba in a few years......Clunker cars ...cellphone systems failing....... a mass failure of Putin to reverse course.....Castro thought he had all the answers and yet today Cuba is one of the poorest nations on the face of the earth. TASS RUSSIAN NEWS AGENCY 18 MAY, 22:45 Russian oil production to decline by 10.3%, gas output - by 5.9% in 2022, says ministry Similar dynamics is expected in the gas sector as a decline in production by 5.91% is projected by the end of this year MOSCOW, May 19. /TASS/. Russia’s crude oil production will go down by 10.25% in 2022 compared with last year, remaining below 2021 level at least until 2025, according to the outlook on the country’s social and economic development released on the website of the Economic Development Ministry. Similar dynamics is expected in the gas sector as a decline in production by 5.91% is projected by the end of this year, according to the document. In particular, the production of oil, including gas condensate, which totaled 524 mln tonnes in 2021, will decrease to 475.3 mln tonnes in the base-case scenario and to 433.8 mln tonnes in the conservative scenario by the end of this year, according to the ministry. Output is projected at 472.8 mln tonnes in 2023 (405.3 mln tonnes in the conservative scenario), at 476.1 mln tonnes in 2024 (416.4 mln tonnes), and 480.5 mln tonnes in 2025 (421.3 mln tonnes). Both scenarios do not suggest that gas production, including associated gas, will recover to the level of 763.5 bln cubic meters of gas registered in 2021 within the next four years either. Particularly, the ministry projects gas output at 720.9 bln cubic meters in 2022 (702.4 bln cubic meters in the conservative scenario), at 720 bln cubic meters in 2023 (669 bln cubic meters), 730 bln cubic meters in 2024 (665.8 bln cubic meters), and 735 bln cubic meters in 2025 (665.1 bln cubic meters). Similar dynamics of a decline by 2023 and further recovery is projected for Russia’s oil exports. The Economic Development Ministry expects crude exports to fall to 228.3 mln tonnes in 2022 after 231 mln tonnes in 2021, and to 224.8 mln tonnes in 2023. In 2024-2025 exports will grow to 228.1 mln tonnes and 229.5 mln tonnes, respectively. Exports of natural gas will decline from 205.6 bln cubic meters in 2021 to 185 bln cubic meters in 2022 and to 155.3 bln cubic meters in 2025, the ministry suggests. Edited July 11, 2022 by notsonice Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Andrei Moutchkine + 828 July 11, 2022 23 minutes ago, notsonice said: enjoy the decline of Russia................The New Cuba you can bet the reality in Russia is much worse, 20 percent drop this year in oil production is my bet .........permanent demand destruction AKA the Putin Way.... Yes, Russia will never recover from Putins mistakes................Russia will look like Cuba in a few years......Clunker cars ...cellphone systems failing....... a mass failure of Putin to reverse course.....Castro thought he had all the answers and yet today Cuba is one of the poorest nations on the face of the earth. TASS RUSSIAN NEWS AGENCY 18 MAY, 22:45 Russian oil production to decline by 10.3%, gas output - by 5.9% in 2022, says ministry Similar dynamics is expected in the gas sector as a decline in production by 5.91% is projected by the end of this year MOSCOW, May 19. /TASS/. Russia’s crude oil production will go down by 10.25% in 2022 compared with last year, remaining below 2021 level at least until 2025, according to the outlook on the country’s social and economic development released on the website of the Economic Development Ministry. Similar dynamics is expected in the gas sector as a decline in production by 5.91% is projected by the end of this year, according to the document. In particular, the production of oil, including gas condensate, which totaled 524 mln tonnes in 2021, will decrease to 475.3 mln tonnes in the base-case scenario and to 433.8 mln tonnes in the conservative scenario by the end of this year, according to the ministry. Output is projected at 472.8 mln tonnes in 2023 (405.3 mln tonnes in the conservative scenario), at 476.1 mln tonnes in 2024 (416.4 mln tonnes), and 480.5 mln tonnes in 2025 (421.3 mln tonnes). Both scenarios do not suggest that gas production, including associated gas, will recover to the level of 763.5 bln cubic meters of gas registered in 2021 within the next four years either. Particularly, the ministry projects gas output at 720.9 bln cubic meters in 2022 (702.4 bln cubic meters in the conservative scenario), at 720 bln cubic meters in 2023 (669 bln cubic meters), 730 bln cubic meters in 2024 (665.8 bln cubic meters), and 735 bln cubic meters in 2025 (665.1 bln cubic meters). Similar dynamics of a decline by 2023 and further recovery is projected for Russia’s oil exports. The Economic Development Ministry expects crude exports to fall to 228.3 mln tonnes in 2022 after 231 mln tonnes in 2021, and to 224.8 mln tonnes in 2023. In 2024-2025 exports will grow to 228.1 mln tonnes and 229.5 mln tonnes, respectively. Exports of natural gas will decline from 205.6 bln cubic meters in 2021 to 185 bln cubic meters in 2022 and to 155.3 bln cubic meters in 2025, the ministry suggests. This is more than made up by higher prices so far Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NickW + 2,714 NW July 11, 2022 21 hours ago, Andrei Moutchkine said: I was talking about pyrolysis of methane, where half the product is hydrogen, and half - acetylene. It is an inherently cheaper source of hydrogen than electrolysis of water, because four hydrogens is better than two. I was responding to how the Russian tidal power plant could be practically used to generate Ammonia and Hydrogen. . Converting fossil methane into acetylene would appear to be at a complete tangent to this. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Andrei Moutchkine + 828 July 11, 2022 4 hours ago, NickW said: I was responding to how the Russian tidal power plant could be practically used to generate Ammonia and Hydrogen. . Converting fossil methane into acetylene would appear to be at a complete tangent to this. What do you make ammonia out of, atmospheric nitrogen?!? Not completely tangent. 2CH4 = C2H2 + 3H2 seems somewhat carbon-capturing, no? More so, if you burn it into soot, Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NickW + 2,714 NW July 11, 2022 44 minutes ago, Andrei Moutchkine said: What do you make ammonia out of, atmospheric nitrogen?!? Not completely tangent. 2CH4 = C2H2 + 3H2 seems somewhat carbon-capturing, no? More so, if you burn it into soot, When you have 200 TWh of stranded electricity as you would have in the case of that tidal power station thats one of the primary processes to extract N out of the air. The other is electrolysis of water to produce the H. This what the Norwegians did (obviously on a much smaller scale) at Vemork. If you want to start using that H as a feedstock into making organic carbon compounds, perhaps by capturing CO2 from the air then I would go for ethylene (c2H4) as its a major feed stock into the plastics industry and has a C/H ratio of 1:2 (rather than 1:1 which is the case for Acetylene) Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TailingsPond + 671 GE July 11, 2022 (edited) 3 hours ago, NickW said: When you have 200 TWh of stranded electricity as you would have in the case of that tidal power station thats one of the primary processes to extract N out of the air. The other is electrolysis of water to produce the H. This what the Norwegians did (obviously on a much smaller scale) at Vemork. If you want to start using that H as a feedstock into making organic carbon compounds, perhaps by capturing CO2 from the air then I would go for ethylene (c2H4) as its a major feed stock into the plastics industry and has a C/H ratio of 1:2 (rather than 1:1 which is the case for Acetylene) You can polymerize acetylene as well. It has interesting properties. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polyacetylene Ammonia is far too toxic for widespread use. Oil is immiscible with water which gives you a chance to clean up spills into waterways. Ammonia dissolves in water and is highly toxic to aquatic life. Edited July 11, 2022 by TailingsPond 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Andrei Moutchkine + 828 July 11, 2022 2 hours ago, TailingsPond said: You can polymerize acetylene as well. It has interesting properties. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polyacetylene Ammonia is far too toxic for widespread use. Oil is immiscible with water which gives you a chance to clean up spills into waterways. Ammonia dissolves in water and is highly toxic to aquatic life. You can also polymerize ethylene into polyethylene, which you can fluorize to PTFE (Teflon) Which is not toxic to anything, because entirely inert Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Andrei Moutchkine + 828 July 11, 2022 5 hours ago, NickW said: When you have 200 TWh of stranded electricity as you would have in the case of that tidal power station thats one of the primary processes to extract N out of the air. The other is electrolysis of water to produce the H. This what the Norwegians did (obviously on a much smaller scale) at Vemork. If you want to start using that H as a feedstock into making organic carbon compounds, perhaps by capturing CO2 from the air then I would go for ethylene (c2H4) as its a major feed stock into the plastics industry and has a C/H ratio of 1:2 (rather than 1:1 which is the case for Acetylene) So, you are basically proposing making artificial lighting / very powerful electric arching? Kewl... There is a lot that could go wrong with that plan, especially in the vicinity of HOH / hydrogen gas Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NickW + 2,714 NW July 11, 2022 3 hours ago, TailingsPond said: You can polymerize acetylene as well. It has interesting properties. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polyacetylene Ammonia is far too toxic for widespread use. Oil is immiscible with water which gives you a chance to clean up spills into waterways. Ammonia dissolves in water and is highly toxic to aquatic life. The primary use of Ammonia is as a fertiliser feedstock. Global production is >150 mt a year. As usual the point s lost on this site that if you have 200 Twh of stranded energy you have to convert it into something useful and realtive easy to transport. Ammonia ticks both boxes. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NickW + 2,714 NW July 11, 2022 50 minutes ago, Andrei Moutchkine said: So, you are basically proposing making artificial lighting / very powerful electric arching? Kewl... There is a lot that could go wrong with that plan, especially in the vicinity of HOH / hydrogen gas Electrolysis has been around since the 19th century😉 If that tidal plant got built what would you do with 200 Twh of stranded energy? Its 3500km to the nearest large population centres (northern China) that could absorb that sort of energy so transmission as electricity unlikely. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TailingsPond + 671 GE July 12, 2022 3 hours ago, NickW said: The primary use of Ammonia is as a fertiliser feedstock. Global production is >150 mt a year. As usual the point s lost on this site that if you have 200 Twh of stranded energy you have to convert it into something useful and realtive easy to transport. Ammonia ticks both boxes. An excellent fertilizer; but not a good fuel for widespread use. Ammonia is nasty to work with, trust me. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
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