Ron Wagner

How Far Have We Really Gotten With Alternative Energy

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On 10/12/2023 at 4:46 AM, notsonice said:

coal is toast.........Solar farm boom is just starting

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2023/09/25/solar-module-price-falling-with-no-end-in-sight/

Solar module price falling, with no end in sight

Solar module prices have never fallen so sharply in such a short period of time. One reason for this is the “PV module glut” in warehouses in Europe, according to pvXchange’s Martin Schachinger.

SEPTEMBER 25, 2023 MARTIN SCHACHINGER, PVXCHANGE.COM
 
Modulpreis_index-e1695377440529.png

I will be trying to do a small roof install to run, but mainly for emergencies. We have movable panels and small electric batteries which we can expand also. I worry about theft of them since it does happen with even roof solar panels.

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45 minutes ago, Ron Wagner said:

When new power transmission lines are not factored into the cost of new solar or wind it results in higher prices for the end consumer. The lies have resulted in higher prices for energy all across the world.

It's not like fossil fuel sourced energy is magically transmitted.  If the electrical lines are shorter it is only because the oil pipelines etc. are longer and the electricity is produced closer the the consumer.

 

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(edited)

50 minutes ago, Ron Wagner said:

I will be trying to do a small roof install to run, but mainly for emergencies. We have movable panels and small electric batteries which we can expand also. I worry about theft of them since it does happen with even roof solar panels.

Take note, Ron is going solar due his concerns about unreliable fossil fuel generation. :)

Why not buy a giant natural gas tank and a generator for emergencies?? :)

Edited by TailingsPond
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(edited)

12 hours ago, Ron Wagner said:

Wow, that is miniscule!

Wow what a silly comment

The average number of turbines in an array in the USA is 50 so multiply 170,000 by 50 and you get a wind farm of 50 turbines powering 8.5million homes. Is that really miniscule Ron?

There are 142million homes in the USA so 16.3/4 of these would power every home in the USA. 

Edited by Rob Plant
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On 9/13/2023 at 1:08 PM, Rob Plant said:

China's Solar Boom: Capacity Set To Hit 1 TW By 2026

China's Solar Boom: Capacity Set To Hit 1 TW By 2026 | OilPrice.com

Of course this wont have any affect on coal use in China 😄

China's installed non-fossil fuel electricity capacity exceeds 50% of total

China's installed non-fossil fuel electricity capacity exceeds 50% of total | Reuters

Ron you post a rolling eye to this post and dont have any argument against it whatsoever. Just because it doesnt fit your mantra doesnt mean it isnt gonna happen!

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OK, my rolling eye was because the amount of electricity produced was not impressive IMHO. 

7% wind and solar does not impress me. China is the main producer of solar panels, so that makes it even less impressive. Also, I do not believe that wind and solar are ever really cheaper if all factors are considered. The one exception would be off-grid solar. 

International - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

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On 10/30/2023 at 2:24 PM, Ron Wagner said:

Wow, that is miniscule!

Actually, it not exactly minuscule.  That's for ONE wind turbine.  It output matched what a 16 MW combustion of steam turbine would do.

How much does it cost?  That's probably a bigger issue.   But...it's China.

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(edited)

On 10/30/2023 at 2:47 PM, Ron Wagner said:

I will be trying to do a small roof install to run, but mainly for emergencies. We have movable panels and small electric batteries which we can expand also. I worry about theft of them since it does happen with even roof solar panels.

If you are concerned about theft, I suggest you use fasteners with a mix of different wrench sizes, a mix of Allen and hex head bolts, and a mix of left and right-hand threads. 

THAT will slow then up.

CONSIDERABLY!

Edited by turbguy

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On 10/30/2023 at 3:37 PM, TailingsPond said:

Take note, Ron is going solar due his concerns about unreliable fossil fuel generation. :)

Why not buy a giant natural gas tank and a generator for emergencies?? :)

Not stored nat gas, propane.

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6 hours ago, turbguy said:

If you are concerned about theft, I suggest you use fasteners with a mix of different wrench sizes, a mix of Allen and hex head bolts, and a mix of left and right-hand threads. 

THAT will slow then up.

CONSIDERABLY!

Actually you can easily buy tamper proof fasteners that nobody can remove unless they have a specific tool to undo them.

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(edited)

10 hours ago, Ron Wagner said:

OK, my rolling eye was because the amount of electricity produced was not impressive IMHO. 

7% wind and solar does not impress me. China is the main producer of solar panels, so that makes it even less impressive. Also, I do not believe that wind and solar are ever really cheaper if all factors are considered. The one exception would be off-grid solar. 

International - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Ron your pie chart is hugely out of date so what you think are miniscule numbers actually aren't now. Hence why the article (which was from June 2023 not a pie chart from 2021) I posted stated this.

China's installed non-fossil fuel electricity capacity exceeds 50% of total

That's a massive change from your pie chart showing 83% of powergen is from FF. That's in a 2 year period as well.

Lots of people on here claiming there's bugger all change or the "green agenda" is losing traction when up to date data and investment levels in renewables proves otherwise.

Edited by Rob Plant
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(edited)

17 hours ago, Ron Wagner said:

OK, my rolling eye was because the amount of electricity produced was not impressive IMHO. 

7% wind and solar does not impress me. China is the main producer of solar panels, so that makes it even less impressive. Also, I do not believe that wind and solar are ever really cheaper if all factors are considered. The one exception would be off-grid solar. 

International - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

7% wind and solar does not impress me??????

and now the boom is happening

 

since your pie chart was published (2021 end of year data) total of 624GW solar and wind was installed

solar  in China went from 253 GW at the end of 2020 298 at the end of 2021  to 392 GW at the end of 2022 and is rising to over 500 GW this year and 1000 GW at the end of 2026

wind went from 328 GW at the end of 2021 to 365 at the end of 2022 to top 500 GW by the end of 2023

so your 7% is now at the end of this year at over 10% and at the end of 2025 over 14%...doubled in 4 years

Chinas target of  (1200GW)  at the end of 2030 will happen in 2024

2026 a total of 1500 GW wil be installed

 

by 2030 Solar and Wind will be at over 2300 GW in China or nearly 4 times of what it is today or 20 plus % of all energy consumption in China

 

that is near 4 times of what your 2021 end of year in just 9 years....which means Coal is losing market share and Coal in China is now set for terminal decline

China's solar capacity expected to hit 1,000 GW by 2026, Rystad Energy says

Reuters
September 12, 20237:33 AM MDTUpdated 2 months ago
Sept 12 (Reuters) - China's installed solar capacity will double to 1,000 gigawatts (GW) by the end of 2026 as the world's second-largest economy continues to ramp up investment in renewables, energy research firm Rystad Energy wrote in a note published on Monday.

Beijing had set a goal of boosting the country's installed capacity of wind and solar power to more than 1,200 GW by 2030.

China had installed 365 GW of wind power capacity and 392 GW of solar capacity by the end of last year - about a third of the world's total. The country's installed capacity is expected to top 500 GW by the end of 2023, the note added.

 
"China's national program to build out solar capacity, launched in June 2021, has led to a significant boost in large-scale projects," said Yicong Zhu, senior renewables and power analyst at Rystad.

The note added China's investment in solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity was 3.4 times higher than its investment on thermal power during the first half of 2023.

However, utility-scale solar PV development, that produce 10 megawatts (MW) or more of energy, has been concentrated in its less populous northwestern parts due to geographical advantages.

"There is limited land availability and costs are high in coastal regions, so large-scale utility solar PV developments are not feasible," the note added.

The challenges have paved the way for more investment in rooftop solar and provinces such as Henan, Shandong and Hubei have seen a surge in installations, Rystad said.

Despite the growth, some provinces are lagging behind in meeting their province-specific goals for installed capacity, the note added.

 

"Overall, all provinces will need to bring at least 250 GW of solar PV capacity online by the end of 2025 to achieve their respective targets," Rystad noted.

Edited by notsonice
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On 10/31/2023 at 4:09 AM, Rob Plant said:

Wow what a silly comment

The average number of turbines in an array in the USA is 50 so multiply 170,000 by 50 and you get a wind farm of 50 turbines powering 8.5million homes. Is that really miniscule Ron?

There are 142million homes in the USA so 16.3/4 of these would power every home in the USA. 

I think in terms of energy for ALL needs, not just electricity for home use. Huge difference in reality versus slit vision. 

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(edited)

Just another Ho hum Green Energy walk back. I promise to never do it again...And I thought US youth we're gullible.

 

Ex EU Climate Chief Drops Key Green Pledge Ahead Of Dutch Election

By Charles Kennedy - Nov 06, 2023, 11:30 AM CST

 

 

 

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Ex-EU-Climate-Chief-Drops-Key-Green-Pledge-Ahead-Of-Dutch-Election.html

Edited by Eyes Wide Open

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(edited)

Price-Graph1.v1-600x275.jpg

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2023/11/03/solar-cell-prices-plunge-to-all-time-low/

PV MAGAZINE

Solar cell prices plunge to all-time low

November 3, 2023OPIS

On 10/12/2023 at 2:00 PM, turbguy said:

Now solar module cost is down to 14.5 US cents/watt!

and getting cheaper by the day

 

a drop of 40 percent since the last graph I posted in just 3 months

1/6 the price of 2015 and when you add in inflation

10 percent of the price of 2015

 

the older chart

Modulpreis_index-e1695377440529.png

 

and some real perspective

File:Price history of silicon PV cells since 1977.svg - Wikipedia

Edited by notsonice
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EU already has abandoned Coal, USA Coal use spiraling downward and China will follow starting in 2024 due to renewables

Coal is Doomed

.
 
World Coal
 

IEEFA: Coal use at US power plants continues decline

 Save to read listPublished by Will Owen, Editor
World Coal, Thursday, 09 November 2023 10:00

the highlights....read the whole article


According to Seth Feaster, IEEFA, coal use at US power plants is continuing its downward spiral; with the full impact on mines to be felt in 2024.

Feaster’s latest analysis of the subject reads as follows:

“This year, the use of coal by the US’s power producers has been so anaemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so far, and the current outlook predicts low levels for the rest of the year. To put that into perspective, coal’s power market share had never been less than 20% in any month before 2020, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).

 

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3 hours ago, notsonice said:

EU already has abandoned Coal, USA Coal use spiraling downward and China will follow starting in 2024 due to renewables

Coal is Doomed

I know this will stretch your 2 brain cells...

USA has this thing called ~free(almost) Natural Gas. Coal is not ~free. 

Why would anyone in the USA install a new Coal power plant again instead of NG? 

You might have noticed but those who have coal but not Natural Gas are building..... get this, COAL POWER PLANTS

Plz stretch your 2 brain cells.

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5 hours ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

I know this will stretch your 2 brain cells...

USA has this thing called ~free(almost) Natural Gas. Coal is not ~free. 

Why would anyone in the USA install a new Coal power plant again instead of NG? 

You might have noticed but those who have coal but not Natural Gas are building..... get this, COAL POWER PLANTS

Plz stretch your 2 brain cells.

And if you used your singular brain cell you would realize that US decreases help offset other increases.

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(edited)

2 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

And if you used your singular brain cell you would realize that US decreases help offset other increases.

You might take a new look you old crow. The civilized world would be running away from Green Energy at breakneck speed. The chaos is beginning to end, the aftermath will be extraordinary.

Failure has arrived.

Edited by Eyes Wide Open
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6 hours ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

You might take a new look you old crow. The civilized world would be running away from Green Energy at breakneck speed. The chaos is beginning to end, the aftermath will be extraordinary.

Failure has arrived.

Meanwhile in reality:

Exclusive: Over 60 countries back deal to triple renewable energy this decade -officials

https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/over-60-countries-back-deal-triple-renewable-energy-this-decade-officials-2023-11-10/

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(edited)

this will wipe out coal use permanently in Europe and decimate Nat Gas fueled electrical generation

Enjoy the transition..............

https://renews.biz/89594/nsec-to-coordinate-annual-15gw-offshore-auctions/

North Sea states launch 100GW tender plan

The joint planning initiative could comprise almost 15GW awards annually to 2030

20 November 2023 13:52 Offshore Wind [Image: Zoltan Tasi/Unsplash]
   

The North Seas Energy Cooperation (NSEC) countries are launching a joint tender planning initiative with around 15GW of offshore wind auctions scheduled each year and almost 100GW of awards by 2030.

Edited by notsonice
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On 11/7/2023 at 3:43 PM, Eyes Wide Open said:

Just another Ho hum Green Energy walk back. I promise to never do it again...And I thought US youth we're gullible.

 

Ex EU Climate Chief Drops Key Green Pledge Ahead Of Dutch Election

By Charles Kennedy - Nov 06, 2023, 11:30 AM CST

 

 

 

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Ex-EU-Climate-Chief-Drops-Key-Green-Pledge-Ahead-Of-Dutch-Election.html

He is probably the first leader to do so....

There has been a mixed feeling in knowing how generations after pioneers and their second generation are being bred.

Common trend observed involving most probably those proteges could be:

1. Despite knowing there are short comings that require improvision, they still insist to do it in massive scale . Worse, they hope others to follow suit... Or enforce it. 

"Deal with the problems later. Afterall, it's trial and error that makes the world going..." 

For examples, solar, swiss project. 

 

2. Even with the ability to know all they need to know through connectivity, they insist cold hearted act to force things out of impoverished despite knowing it doesn't know more than there is to know. 

 

They grew up never need anything, including their brain or heads. There is always someone whom they can pay to think and do the work for them. 

They think to have emotion or feeling in grown up world is a sign of weakness. They became  indifferent. Going through the motion and made believed they care ... 

They turned mentally ill, inhumane at some points, consciously or unconsciously... But believing it is their birth right to be so ....

We let them lead us astray and do not care....

What do we care??

To get clearer head, one needs to befriend such. Do you have any whom you receive as one? Or, may be you do not need any. You trust only your own judgement...

We talk about human rights. Yet, your pet animal, or animals at stray dogs and cats center,  might be having more rights than that stupid kid. 

We talk about equality. Yet, we let it bullied and go through life and dead again and again for your entertainment without a care...

Want to know what's wrong with the world?

Problems might have started with us behaving this way...

No one cares what you want to do to the world. But out of your boredom, you are inhuman and acting insanely to the innocent. Depriving its basic right to live makes you proud and nothing is done to help the kid upset me.....

How much longer to wait till you wake up from your trance and spell??

Hope things can be changed before this christmas... A wish to Santa and righteous kind of unknown... 

 

 

 

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https://www.energy-storage.news/lfp-cell-average-falls-below-us100-kwh-as-battery-pack-prices-drop-to-record-low-in-2023/

LFP cell average falls below US$100/kWh as battery pack prices drop to record low in 2023

November 27, 2023
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China_s_Largest_Stand_alone_Energy_Stora A 200MW/400MWh LFP BESS project in China, where lower battery prices continue to be found. Image: Hithium Energy Storage.

After a difficult couple of years which saw the trend of falling lithium battery prices temporarily reverse, a 14% drop in lithium-ion (Li-ion) battery pack cost from 2022-2023 has been recorded by BloombergNEF.

The market research and analysis group has published the new edition of its annual survey of battery pricing, finding that prices have been falling again this year after “unprecedented price increases” in 2022.

Meanwhile, demand for batteries across the electric vehicle (EV) and battery energy storage system (BESS) markets will likely total 950GWh globally in 2023, according to BloombergNEF.

On average, pack prices fell 14% from 2022 levels to a record low of US$139/kWh this year. This reduction was driven by the dynamics of falling raw material and component prices, and increases in production capacity.

However, despite the good news, BloombergNEF (BNEF) no longer expects to find average pack prices fall below US$100/kWh by 2024 (as it predicted in 2020), nor by 2026 (as it predicted last year). It will however be likely to happen before the end of this decade, with BNEF forecasting that the average pack will cost about US$113/kWh in 2025, and decline in cost sharply to around US$80/kWh by 2030.

Indeed, as supply chain issues like rising raw material costs, post-COVID logistical challenges and rising demand for EVs converged in the past couple of years, BNEF had stated in its 2021 edition that 2022 may be the first year since its surveys began in 2010 that the cost of batteries may be seen to rise.

That prediction was proven correct, with BNEF reporting a 7% average pack price increase from 2021 to 2022, hitting US$151/kWh last year. That sharp reversal had followed a decade of consistent declines of around 10% each year.

Cheapest in China, while US and Europe face learning curve

Perhaps unsurprisingly, the cheapest battery packs are to be found in China, given the country’s massive scale of manufacturing and involvement across the whole value chain from materials processing to finished products, as well as its early adopter advantage in terms of tech development and knowhow.

Packs in China were found to be at an average of US$126/kWh while packs made in the US and Europe were 11% and 26% higher respectively. With both the US and Europe battling to become significant players in the battery value chain, the higher prices reflects the relative immaturity of their industries, as well as the fact that China’s many manufacturers are now competing with each other on price, BNEF said.

In May, commodity price reporting agency Fastmarkets said that it expected nickel manganese cobalt (NMC) Li-ion battery pack prices to fall below US$100/kWh in 2027, and lower-cost lithium iron phosphate (LFP) packs to hit the sub-US$100 threshold even sooner, by 2025.

Again, Fastmarkets noted that those price points could be hit quicker in China, while Fastmarkets Battery Raw Materials Analyst Jordan Roberts said lithium carbonate prices would remain elevated over 2023, but wouldn’t go back up to the peak prices seen last year.

The arrest in the pace of cost declines hit the industry with some shock, coming after BNEF found some pack prices below US$100/kWh as early as 2020.

It has been “another year where battery prices closely followed raw material prices,” and the dynamics of why and how prices are falling have shifted, according to BNEF analyst Evelina Stoikou.

“In the many years that we’ve been doing this survey, falling prices have been driven by scale learnings and technological innovation, but that dynamic has changed,” Stoikou said.

“The drop in prices this year was attributed to significant growth in production capacity across the value chain in combination with weaker-than-expected demand.”

BNEF forecasted that 2024 will see pack prices drop to US$133/kWh, based largely on an expectation that lithium, nickel and cobalt costs will drop again, according to miners and metals traders it surveyed for its new report.

Low-cost LFP shift continues

With both the EV industry and stationary storage sectors increasingly adopting batteries with LFP cathode chemistry, LFP pack average prices were found to be US$130/kWh and LFP cells at US$95/kWh. LFP is now just less than 1/3 (32%) cheaper than NMC.

Another interesting aspect of the changing dynamic from 2022 to 2023’s edition of the BNEF survey is that although LFP is a lower cost cathode chemistry than NMC, the portion of lithium carbonate used in its production is much higher than it is in NMC. That meant when lithium carbonate prices spiked last year, the cost of LFP went up faster than its legacy rival’s.

In the past two years, battery prices have “been on a rollercoaster,” BNEF head of energy storage research Yayoi Sekine said.

“Large markets like the US and Europe are building up their local cell manufacturing and we’re keenly watching how production incentives and tightening regulations on critical minerals will impact battery prices.”

Those efforts at localisation would add complexity to regional battery pricing dynamics in the coming years. The US’ Inflation Reduction Act and Bipartisan Infrastructure Law legislation is seeing billions of dollars being pumped into battery value chain investment, while just a few days ago, lawmakers in the European Union (EU) approved the start of negotiations on the Net Zero Industry Act, the bloc’s response to the US’ pace-setting legislation.

Energy-Storage.news’ publisher Solar Media will host the 9th annual Energy Storage Summit EU in London, 21-22 February 2024. This year it is moving to a larger venue, bringing together Europe’s leading investors, policymakers, developers, utilities, energy buyers and service providers all in one place. Visit the official site for more info.

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(edited)

 

 

European Grid is growing .....need more renewables.........UK Wind and solar have more markets to satisfy

 

The new electricity 800MW Viking Link connection between Denmark and England is to be commissioned on 29 December 2023, developer Energinet has said.

reNEWS

https://renews.biz/90146/800mw-viking-link-about-to-be-commissioned/

 

Viking Link about to be commissioned

Connection between Denmark and England will not be at full 1.4GW capacity due to West Jutland grid issues

 15 December 2023  Grid[Image: Prysmian Group]

 

The new electricity 800MW Viking Link connection between Denmark and England is to be commissioned on 29 December 2023, developer Energinet has said. 

 

The full capacity of 1400MW cannot be offered to the electricity market from the start, because the West Jutland high-voltage grid has not yet been developed sufficiently, it added.

 

The existing electricity grid risks overloading and consumers a supply failure if Viking Link was given a complete freedom from day one, according to the developer. 

Energinet said it is working hard on market and operational measures, which can continuously increase the possibility of even more import and export of power across the North Sea.

 

When Viking Link was adopted in 2015, it happened at the same time as it was decided to expand the 400kV high-voltage grid in West Jutland from Idomlund by Holstebro in the north to the Danish-German border in the south.

 

The projects were mutually dependent, Energinet said. 

 

But subsequently, the expansion of 400kV connections along the West Coast has run into several delays, i.a. due to stricter requirements for environmental approvals.

 

Therefore, the spades on the new 400kV connections have only just been put in the ground, and therefore they are not finished at the same time that Viking Link can be put into operation.

 

Klaus Winther, director of system responsibility at Energinet, said: "Because the reinforcements of the high-voltage network in West Jutland are delayed, we have always known that it was a challenge to offer the full capacity of Viking Link to the electricity market from day one, but possible with a number of mitigating measures.

 

"The existing West Jutland electricity grid is simply not strong enough for all the power that, for example, Danish electricity producers want to send through Viking Link and sell in England, to reach the new connection."

 

If the capacity was given completely free, in addition to the risk of overload and threatened security of supply, it would also mean that large amounts of Danish electricity production from wind turbines in particular would have to be stopped for periods, because the electricity could easily be sold to England, but not come through the West Jutland grids on the way over there.

 

Winther added: "I am aware that electricity producers in particular would have liked to see that we could open for more exports than 800MW from the start, but unfortunately we cannot do that without risking putting the Danes' security of supply out of control.

 

"With 800MW released to the electricity market, we are actually pushing the existing electricity grid in West Jutland more than we usually do and are getting closer to the limit of what we can squeeze out of the electricity grid without overloading it - precisely to ensure that as much as possible is available capacity in Viking Link."

 

Energinet is working hard on both market and operational measures, which will continuously increase the capacity of Viking Link further.

 

Expansion of the 400 kV network along the west coast of Jutland will greatly increase the capacity of the western Danish high-voltage network and thus enable full capacity in Viking Link.

 

The first part of the West Coast connections from the German border to Endrup is scheduled to be put into operation in the first quarter of 2025.

Edited by notsonice
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