Ron Wagner

How Far Have We Really Gotten With Alternative Energy

Recommended Posts

3 minutes ago, Rob Plant said:

Try reading the thread again pal, oh wait I forgot that was challenging for you.

You seem to have trouble reading yourself, Rob.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

On 7/5/2024 at 1:22 PM, turbguy said:

That is a really aggressive suggested outcome to arrive at fruition in only 6 years.

Leadtimes on the vast amount of equipment/materials required to not only generate/store the replacement for fossil power, but equipment required for transmitting it into "the grid", alone, will be a huge impediment.  Then, it must be erected and commissioned as well.

I am not saying it is impossible. just VERY highly unrealistic.

I know there is are large DC ties to the continent, which has significant value, and it currently imports a lot more electrons than it exports. 

You guys better hang on to them there ties.

At least you are going in the direction the horse you are riding already is. 

 

No one really takes those timetables seriously, except Rob and a few other ideologues.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

You seem to have trouble reading yourself, Rob.

pot, kettle, black!

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(edited)

4 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

No one really takes those timetables seriously, except Rob and a few other ideologues.

Hornsea 3 will be built by 2027 adding 2,9GW of additional wind power. Hornsea 4 will be on its coat tails and is expected to be operational by 2028 adding a further 2.6GW. Wind is already the single largest provider of electricity generation each year in the UK.

Ørsted takes final investment decision on Hornsea 3 Offshore Wind Farm (orsted.com)

Power plant profile: Hornsea Project Four, UK (power-technology.com)

Thats just 2 of many Eco, you comment on things you know nothing about. When making a comment try backing it up otherwise you make yourself look less and less credible every time.

Edited by Rob Plant
  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

No one really takes those timetables seriously, except Rob and a few other ideologues.

No one really takes those timetables seriously

the timetable to eliminate coal in both the UK and the US are right on track......

Coal Consumption in the UK is now down to less than 5 percent of its peak...pesky Wind turbines...........they wiped out coal right on schedule

The death of UK coal in five charts - Our World in Data

 

any Coal miner ignoring the timetable in the UK can only mine coal in their dreams today

 

in the US same path ....2030 and US coal will be one tenth of its peak

 

 

 

Coal consumption in the United Kingdom 1970-2022The consumption of inland coal has decreased significantly since 1970, when it amounted to 157 million metric tons. By 2022, this figure had fallen to just 7.6 million metric tons.Apr 23, 2024
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

On 7/10/2024 at 12:52 AM, Rob Plant said:

Try reading the thread again pal, oh wait I forgot that was challenging for you.

Uh Pal, do read, it is YOUR side saying NG/Oil must be eliminated or we are ALL GONNA DIE!!!

I know comprehension of basic reality is difficult for ya pal, but do try to keep up even if it does take a little longer to comprehend basic reality... Even according to YOUR RELIGION

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

11 hours ago, notsonice said:

ROFL!!!!!!  Uh, no.  Try one battery at a time.  Solar panels are ~useless without them.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

On 7/10/2024 at 1:00 AM, Rob Plant said:

Hornsea 3 will be built by 2027 adding 2,9GW of additional wind power. Hornsea 4 will be on its coat tails and is expected to be operational by 2028 adding a further 2.6GW. Wind is already the single largest provider of electricity generation each year in the UK.

Ørsted takes final investment decision on Hornsea 3 Offshore Wind Farm (orsted.com)

Power plant profile: Hornsea Project Four, UK (power-technology.com)

Thats just 2 of many Eco, you comment on things you know nothing about. When making a comment try backing it up otherwise you make yourself look less and less credible every time.

So, what that shows is UK is spending ~x to obtain ~2.8GW installed per ~2 years which may drop to 1 year with enough extra investment of wind carrying a Capacity factor of ~50% Y-o-Y.  So, 70% capacity factor in Spring/Fall, ~15% during summer, and roughly ~35% in the winter.

How long they will last--> Good Question.  Must last 20 years for above numbers to handle the 30GW current load. 

Now add that UK, by their own statements have to switch heating from NG to Electricity and this will effectively require the National Grid to increase by ~100% from its ~30GW grid right now. 

Add in Electrifying vehicles for 60Million People so another 1.5Million barrels of oil a day equivalent in Electrical demand at an assumed ~33% conversion factor.  1 barrel of oil ~1.7MWh @33% ~0.5MWh

~0.5MWh*1.5 = 750GWh per day , divide by 24 h in a day = 30GW continuous for electric vehicles per day.  OF course charging said vehicles costs another ~10%, but lets ignore that little bit of reality...

So, now UK grid needs to TRIPLE from its current paltry 30GW capacity

Current wind turbine production/installation needs to triple

Of course this doesn't work as only get ~35% CF in winter, so we actually need 6X increase to cover Fall/Winter/Spring --> Assuming you can cover with batteries the ~2 weeks you get every winter with near zero wind during which heating etc is highest(as if).  If these batteries exist, summer's low point is not that bad as Solar can technically work and cover this region. 

And this also assumes H2 can be produced and stored and then used for industrial processes for use year round from excess wind capacity in Spring/Fall.

Technically this is ~theoretically possible if you increase Wind Turbine production by 6X --> and all of their components.  Replacing reliance on one region of the world for reliance on another is not a step in the right direction.  Just a different slave master. 

Of course no other region of the world can do this other than Argentina(most of which is a desert), Australia(most of which is a desert), S. Africa(most of which is a desert), (parts of N. America, most of which is a semi desert, but all the needs of USA/Mexico/Canada?  Not a chance)... notice a pattern.... Western Sahara/Morocco, Somalia.... maybe someone small like N. Sea neighbors such as Norway, Iceland, Netherlands, Denmark can as well as they have access to NG fields to store the H2 in. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

On 7/10/2024 at 1:21 AM, notsonice said:

No one really takes those timetables seriously

the timetable to eliminate coal in both the UK and the US are right on track......

Coal Consumption in the UK is now down to less than 5 percent of its peak...pesky Wind turbines...........they wiped out coal right on schedule

The death of UK coal in five charts - Our World in Data

 

any Coal miner ignoring the timetable in the UK can only mine coal in their dreams today

 

in the US same path ....2030 and US coal will be one tenth of its peak

 

 

 

Coal consumption in the United Kingdom 1970-2022The consumption of inland coal has decreased significantly since 1970, when it amounted to 157 million metric tons. By 2022, this figure had fallen to just 7.6 million metric tons.Apr 23, 2024

Do you like being an idiot all the time?  UK HAD ZERO WIND TURBINES at the time

UK ran out of coal to mine...  They have 3.5Billion tons left, much of which is under the ocean. That is ~70 years left if we go by low usage numbers in 2000's, and its drop was due to massive amounts of NG available from North Sea, and both have dropped due to massive loss of heavy industry.  Chemicals--> gone.  Iron/steel--?> nearly gone.  Alumina, and all other metals refining --> Gone.  Had NOTHING to do with wind turbines.  UK HAD ZERO WIND TURBINES at the time

USA coal collapse is entirely due to dirt cheap ~effectively free Natural Gas combined with onerous regulations. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

54 minutes ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

ROFL!!!!!!  Uh, no.  Try one battery at a time.  Solar panels are ~useless without them.

how are your tunnels coming along???????

Solar panels are useless without a battery???????????

over 98 percent of all solar panels do not have battery backup and they still crank out electricity to the grid

 

dude stop using drugs ....the little brain matter you have left is needed so you can control your BMs (unless you already have to wear a diaper)

Enjoy the Solar boom.................

The Green agenda is taking over....one solar panel at a time ,,,,,,,and just for you add in some batteries so your nightlights will stay on....do not want you to freak out after the sun goes down

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(edited)

42 minutes ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Do you like being an idiot all the time?  UK HAD ZERO WIND TURBINES at the time

UK ran out of coal to mine...  They have 3.5Billion tons left, much of which is under the ocean. That is ~70 years left if we go by low usage numbers in 2000's, and its drop was due to massive amounts of NG available from North Sea, and both have dropped due to massive loss of heavy industry.  Chemicals--> gone.  Iron/steel--?> nearly gone.  Alumina, and all other metals refining --> Gone.  Had NOTHING to do with wind turbines.  UK HAD ZERO WIND TURBINES at the time

USA coal collapse is entirely due to dirt cheap ~effectively free Natural Gas combined with onerous regulations. 

UK ran out of coal to mine...  They have 3.5Billion tons left,????

 

3.5 Billion tonnes is 30 years of life at their 1990 usage rates (at a time when their was not wind or solar installations in the UK)

which one is it?????? they are out of Coal or have billions of tonnes left??????

 

along with their estimated resources they had an easy 200 years of coal in the ground which they will never use

PS the UK has an estimated 187 Billion tonnes of coal resources in the ground.............but no one will prove them up to reclassify them as reserves as their is no need for the coal...UK is not out of coal...........Proving up resources cost money as you have to core drill on a pattern, define the strata IE Seam height and analyze samples then do the math   and then do an economic evaluation (not a cheap exercise)

When it the last time you worked on a 43-101 type investigation/report ???????? they are not cheap 

NI 43-101 covers mineral products such, precious metals and solid energy commodities as well as bulk minerals, dimension stone, precious stones and mineral ...

 

 

 

Edited by notsonice

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(edited)

49 minutes ago, notsonice said:

UK ran out of coal to mine...  They have 3.5Billion tons left,????

 

3.5 Billion tonnes is 30 years of life at their 1990 usage rates (at a time when their was not wind or solar installations in the UK)

which one is it?????? they are out of Coal or have billions of tonnes left??????

 

along with their estimated resources they had an easy 200 years of coal in the ground which they will never use

PS the UK has an estimated 187 Billion tonnes of coal resources in the ground.............but no one will prove them up to reclassify them as reserves as their is no need for the coal...UK is not out of coal...........Proving up resources cost money as you have to core drill on a pattern, define the strata IE Seem height and analyze samples then do the math   and then do an economic evaluation (not a cheap exercise)

When it the last time you worked on a 43-101 type investigation/report ???????? they are not cheap 

NI 43-101 covers mineral products such, precious metals and solid energy commodities as well as bulk minerals, dimension stone, precious stones and mineral ...

 

 

 

Tunnels are doing just fine.  Europe/Japan keep building ever more of them. 

SO, you just proved you can't do math, or read--> Nice.  YOu can't mine all of that, you have to leave ~1/3 of it in form of pillars etc.  20 years bud, 20.  Why UK was shitting their pants about energy and North Sea was a God send wind fall for them.  UK would not have been mining under the damned ocean if their so called "resources" were worth a shit.  They have been mining coal for greater than 200 years and yet these so called "resources" were left alone and chose to mine under the sea... before obscene regulations started piling up.  Yea... no more needs said.

Edited by footeab@yahoo.com

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Tunnels are doing just fine.  Europe/Japan keep building ever more of them. 

SO, you just proved you can't do math, or read--> Nice.  YOu can't mine all of that, you have to leave ~1/3 of it in form of pillars etc.  20 years bud, 20.  Why UK was shitting their pants about energy and North Sea was a God send wind fall for them.  UK would not have been mining under the damned ocean if their so called "resources" were worth a shit.  They have been mining coal for greater than 200 years and yet these so called "resources" were left alone and chose to mine under the sea... before obscene regulations started piling up.  Yea... no more needs said.

Pillars are never counted as reserves or included in resource calcs .....before during or after mining....never

 

when you calculate reserves you have to take into account the mining method IE for room and pillar max extraction is usually around 60 percent .......when you calc the reserves you  apply the estimated recovery rate (IE recovery rate is a function of the mining method) to come up with the final tonnage

 

Now you may try to pull the pillars.....if the conditions are just right.....right after you finish mining a section or you may take a middle cut into the pillars before abandoning a section

and you usually can never pull pillars if you have surface structures above where you are mining....unless you buy out all of the surface rights

all said  again you would never sell any one that the pillars are reserves or resources

Now If you wait to long to pull pillars....months or a few years and the pillars take the weight and you start having floor heave or roof problems and you will never get a chance to get back into pulling the pillars....Unless you want to be squished like a bug

now you would know this if you ever worked in the underground coal business or in any underground mine

of course, as usual, you make up BS......

again

Pillars are never counted as reserves or resources (rookie mistake not to take into account the mining method when calculating reserves or resources) this is why you have to be certified to do a 43-101

again stop using drugs

 

and you sold someone your mass Tunnel scheme..........ha ha ha....dude how many tunnel or shaft projects have you ever worked on???? Googling  the word tunnel does not count as work....ha ha ha.....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Tunnels are doing just fine.

Bwahahaha

How much investment have you managed to get for your grand tunnel scheme??

We all know what the answer is!

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Do you like being an idiot all the time?  UK HAD ZERO WIND TURBINES at the time

UK ran out of coal to mine...  They have 3.5Billion tons left, much of which is under the ocean. That is ~70 years left if we go by low usage numbers in 2000's, and its drop was due to massive amounts of NG available from North Sea, and both have dropped due to massive loss of heavy industry.  Chemicals--> gone.  Iron/steel--?> nearly gone.  Alumina, and all other metals refining --> Gone.  Had NOTHING to do with wind turbines.  UK HAD ZERO WIND TURBINES at the time

USA coal collapse is entirely due to dirt cheap ~effectively free Natural Gas combined with onerous regulations. 

Coal reserves are a red herring just like oil reserves are.

The FACT is coal mining in the UK was totally uneconomical and that led to a massive reduction in its use, and triggered the coal miners strike under Thatcher.

However it was the move from coal to gas plants and some biomass conversions which was enforced by the government due to climate and pollution issues that signaled the death of coal fired power stations in the UK.

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

the UK is on path to reduce Nat gas consumption by 25 percent from today's levels by 2030
Coal ....99 percent gone already
 
Coal in the UK by 2030.....poof......gone forever
 
.
  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

On 7/14/2024 at 10:09 AM, notsonice said:
the UK is on path to reduce Nat gas consumption by 25 percent from today's levels by 2030
Coal ....99 percent gone already
 
Coal in the UK by 2030.....poof......gone forever
 
.

Ha ha! Dream on.

Here is the reality,

https://interactive.carbonbrief.org/the-carbon-brief-profile-china/

"Coal has been the single largest source of energy in China throughout the modern era. While the share of coal in the energy mix decreased from 77% at its peak four decades ago to today’s 56%, coal consumption in China grew by 650% over the same period.

For decades, Chinese experts have been justifying the country’s heavy reliance on coal by reference to its resource endowment, which is “rich in coal, lacking oil and natural gas”.

These endowments have informed China’s approach to energy security, including its continued focus on coal, as well as the drive to develop domestic low-carbon energy supplies and supply chains for electric vehicles that cut the need for gas and oil imports.

(In fact, while its oil reserves are small in global terms, its gas reserves have recently grown rapidly, such that they now are only one-third lower than those of the US.)

China is the world’s largest coal producer, mining 4.56bn tonnes of coal in 2022. It is also the world’s biggest coal importer. It imported 293m tonnes in 2022 – mainly for thermal power generation – from countries including Indonesia, Australia and Russia.

China’s coal use doubled in the 10th five-year plan period (2001-2005). The expansion was stalled by the financial crisis in 2008, but quickly bounced back in 2009-2011.

In 2014, premier Li Keqiang declared a “war on pollution”, following the release of a five-year action plan on air-pollution prevention and control in 2013.

This led to major efforts including to shift homes from coal to gas heating and to close small coal-fired power plants near urban areas in favour of larger, more efficient units further away.

Around this time, China’s coal demand slowed to a temporary “peak” in 2013. This was followed by a period of decline – and coal use only returned to 2013 levels in 2019.

At the UN leaders summit on climate in April 2021, Xi said that China would “strictly limit the increase in coal consumption over the 14th five-year plan period” and “phase it down in the 15th five-year plan period”. This has been interpreted by some international observers as an announcement that China will “peak coal use in 2025”.

While the latest IEA outlook suggests this peak may come as early as 2024, China’s coal use has meanwhile continued to rise. Demand for the fuel surged as the global economy – and demand for Chinese manufactured goods – rebounded from the Covid-19 pandemic.

This rebound was compounded by drought that limited hydropower and by an inefficient electricity market, leading to power shortages in 2021. Severe droughts followed again in 2022 and 2023, along with heatwaves that pushed up demand for air conditioning.

At the same time, the global energy crisis was pushing up gas prices and ratcheting geopolitical tensions. These factors have driven a renewed push for coal in China.

Following Xi’s remarks on “strictly limit[ing]” coal, approvals for new coal-fired power plants declined by nearly 80% in the first half of 2021, compared to the same period in 2020, according to Greenpeace International.

Yet the recent push for energy security and surges in peak power demand have seen a new wave of coal plant approvals in 2022 and early 2023. This wave of approvals amounts to a “u-turn” on Xi’s coal pledge, despite conditions stating that new projects should only play “supporting” roles in the electricity system to complement variable renewables.

The power sector is the largest contributor to China’s coal demand and around 61% of its electricity was generated from the fuel in 2022, according to data from thinktank Ember.

China has made it clear that it will establish a “new power system centred on new [low-carbon] energy” in the 14th five-year plan period.

However, as Russia’s invasion in Ukraine squeezed global energy supplies, the government reiterated in 2022 that coal will remain the “ballast stone” of China’s power system.

The 14th five‐year plan for a “modern energy system”, released in March 2022, underlines the importance of energy security, even as it calls for efforts to low‐carbon transitions.

As such, China has not yet announced a clear timeline for coal phase down, let alone coal phaseout. The most recent five-year plan for the energy sector emphasises the “clean and efficient” use of coal and seeks coal plant retrofits to increase their flexibility, enabling the integration of more renewable power to the grid.

‘DUAL CARBON’ GOALS:

 “Dual carbon” goals refer to China’s two climate goals announced by president Xi Jinping at the 75th session of the United Nations General Assembly in September 2020. President Xi announced that China would reach its carbon emissions peak before 2030 and become “carbon neutral” before 2060. However, it remains unclear if the latter goal refers to the neutrality of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions or all greenhouse gas emissions. More broadly speaking, “dual carbon” goals also include China’s further climate commitments for 2030 announced by Xi at the Climate Ambition Summit in December 2020. The additional targets include a 65% drop in CO2 emissions per unit of GDP compared to the 2005 level.

Han – who leads China’s leaders group on the efforts to achieve the carbon peaking and neutrality goals, said that “clean and efficient” use of coal was “an important means” to achieve the “dual-carbon” goals during a government conference in March 2022.

 

More recently, in November 2023, the NDRC announced that coal power plants will receive payments from 1 January 2024 under a new coal “capacity mechanism”. (The UK and several other European countries are among those that have capacity mechanisms.)

 

The scheme could distort market signals that would otherwise force expensive units out of the market, analysts said, but should also increase grid flexibility and allow more wind and solar into the generation mix “without compromising grid stability or energy security”.

Another issue for China is that its fleet of coal-fired power stations is very young, averaging 12 years, and only 1.1% of its units have operated for more than three decades, which weakens the economic motive for their fast retirement.

However, if China continues to add coal capacity, it risks creating more “stranded assets”, with declining profitability and the potential to delay China’s achievement of carbon neutrality.

To date, China has not released a cap on coal capacity, coal generation or coal emissions during the 14th five-year plan or later periods."

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Peak coal already happened...Oil demand in China craters

pesky solar panels and EVs

Luddites ....head to your safe places ....

https://cleantechnica.com/2024/07/16/chinas-carbon-emissions-fall-as-economy-slows-while-other-emissions-rise/

China’s Carbon Emissions Fall As Economy Slows, While Other Emissions Rise

Coal-fired electricity generation slumped for a second straight month in June and declined 7.4%, the biggest drop since May of 2022 when Shanghai was in a Covid lockdown, according to data released Monday by China’s National Bureau of Statistics. Oil demand in China slipped into a marginal contraction in the second quarter as weaker growth has dented consumption of transport and industrial fuels, the International Energy Agency said earlier this month.

Clean Power Surging In China

Generation from renewables is meeting nearly all new demand, according to the National Bureau of Statistics in China. Bloomberg cautions that the data only includes large facilities, which means any contribution from rooftop solar is likely undercounted. Record installations of solar panels and wind turbines mean renewable energy generation is surging, which helps reduce reliance on more polluting sources even as power demand rises. If China’s rapid deployment of solar and wind continues, the country’s carbon emissions are “likely to continue falling, making 2023 the peak year,” Lauri Myllyvirta, senior fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute, said in a report last week.

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

On 7/20/2024 at 12:47 AM, Ecocharger said:

However, if China continues to add coal capacity, it risks creating more “stranded assets”, with declining profitability and the potential to delay China’s achievement of carbon neutrality.

Do you not read your own posts?

  • Upvote 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(edited)

Enjoy the clean air brought to you by the Green agenda
 

.Fossil generation continued to fall to new lows, even as demand rebounded. Fossil fuels generated 17% less (-71 TWh) in the first half of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023, falling to 27% of generation (343 TWh). Coal fell by a quarter (-24%, -39 TWh) and gas by 14% (-29 TWh). This happened even as demand rebounded by 0.7%, picking up after two years of decline. As a result, emissions in the first half of the year are now nearly a third (-31%) lower than in the first half of 2022 — an unprecedented decline over such a short period.

 

Edited by notsonice
  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(edited)

Newest IEA chart shows oil demand in the 1st and 2nd quarters were lower than 2023 average demand
 
China's demand is less in this July compared to last July.....
and the IEA is thinking the 3rd quarter will see a boom in demand of 1 MBPD??????
 
reality IEAs 2024 forecast is a bust on every level
 
104 MBPD  in the third quarter???? IEA needs to ban drug use by its analysts 
 
maybe IEA should read the news and look at the real numbers for a change
 
pesky EV sales in China
 
.

 

 

617a3253-626f-4cf2-9324-2daa955068de.svg

Edited by notsonice
  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
You are posting as a guest. If you have an account, please sign in.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.