Could Venezuela become a net oil importer?

[jose chalhoub + 388]

19 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

Short answer, yes.

Venezuela is already importing crude oil to supply its domestic refineries.  Off the top of my head, I can't recall how much crude oil it is currently importing.

Venezuela is frantically trying to meet its contractual refined fuels export obligations, and meantime is importing crude oil to counter its domestic crude shortfalls.

At the rate that PDVSA continues to decline, with workers stealing equipment to sell so they can buy food, at some point the refineries will mostly stop functioning, due to missing parts.

So, yes, in my opinion, it is only a matter of time until Venezuela becomes a net oil importing country.

Great points. Indeed stealing has been a big part of the problem influencing in the declining of oil production since long, also due to continuous power outages as the other thing to add and high inflation in local currency raising the costs of materials backtracking the production also. Definitely a vicious cycle. 

[jose chalhoub + 388]

at the same time when I see former minister of oil and president of pdvsa the once almighty ramirez living la dolce vita in monaco with more than 5 billions of dollars stolen at his own and not one single dollar given back to venezuela to restore the oil industry then i think that venezuela will become net oil importer because of the high irresponsible administration and corrupted elites who did not give  dime about the future of venezuela. 

[DanilKa + 443]

18 minutes ago, HermitMunster said:

Venezuela is in hock to Russia. Big time.

Satire writer Mikhail Zhvanetskiy said “Let’s argue about taste of lobsters with those who tasted it”:)

@jose chalhoub is telling you Venezuela is on a Chinese hook and he knows situation there. 

Si eres Venezolano - dame un poco de evidenca para sopportar su posicion, xfa hermano. 

[jose chalhoub + 388]

as simple as we owe at least 30 billions of dollars to China now or around. And we are running out of oil to keep on paying them. China has not written off any of our debts any time so far. Russia in some ways has found ways to pardon venezuela. Russia sees venezuela more geopolitical. China wont hesitate to chunk large pieces of venezuela if need be since they see world in practical terms. We owe way more to China than to Russia. 

[jose chalhoub + 388]

18 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

DanilKa, so far, the Maduro regime seems intractable.

this year is pretty much crucial for Maduro regime. Venezuela definitely cant be 6 more years going with this disaster unless Maduro undertakes deep economic reforms in order to prevent real and massive and generalised social unrests which is already going on by seeing protests and strikes by different sectors, which could derive in a generalised strike due to the economic crisis and if the chaos continues in the oil sector then Venezuela will have to eat cables and dirt since oil its the only source of hard currency, forget the petros, forget the yuans, forget the rupees, dollars is what venezuela needs desperately. 

[DanilKa + 443]

Courtesy of @chigrl (Twitter):

https://www.csis.org/analysis/how-low-can-venezuelan-oil-production-go

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

5 minutes ago, DanilKa said:

Courtesy of @chigrl (Twitter):

https://www.csis.org/analysis/how-low-can-venezuelan-oil-production-go

Good article.

[Refman + 207]

On ‎6‎/‎22‎/‎2018 at 4:56 PM, jose chalhoub said:

at the same time when I see former minister of oil and president of pdvsa the once almighty ramirez living la dolce vita in monaco with more than 5 billions of dollars stolen at his own and not one single dollar given back to venezuela to restore the oil industry then i think that venezuela will become net oil importer because of the high irresponsible administration and corrupted elites who did not give  dime about the future of venezuela. 

Isn't Chavez's daughter worth about $5 Billion as well?

 

[Glenn Ellis + 57]

VENEZUELA SI! MADURO NO!

Edited June 25, 2018 by Glenn Ellis

[jose chalhoub + 388]

2 hours ago, Refman said:

Isn't Chavez's daughter worth about $5 Billion as well?

 

Not just her the entire Chavez family in Venezuela is worth billions of dollars in assets farms, they own the country along with Maduro and Cabello clans. 

[jose chalhoub + 388]

while talking recently with friends at pdvsa and the ministry of petroleum, i was told that changes were coming again, but the head of the oil company will still be at the hand of the military, and that the opec results dissapointing for venezuela could be an unleashing of massive changes within the industry. Also there are huge clashes between the elites to control the oil company which is hurting tremendously the operations of the company and there is uncertainties clouding the sector. 

[jose chalhoub + 388]

As another point to add here i would say that as the Caribbean basin was in the last years an important market for venezuelan oil exports and products, as the energy pattern mix is gradually changing from non renewables to renewables such as the use of geothermal, solar and biofuels in a substantial way, and as the U.S. advances importantly through diverse energy initiatives using stealthy diplomacy, then venezuela wont be able to keep on exporting oil to these nations since they no longer will be in need of oil but gas mainly in the shorter term. 

[jose chalhoub + 388]

And as refining capacity crushes progressively, logically venezuela will need to import not just oil but gasoline and other products, prompting it to become a net oil and gasoline importer. 

[jose chalhoub + 388]

On 6/22/2018 at 1:46 PM, Refman said:

Free gasoline doesn't do much good when you can't buy tires, batteries or any other spare parts for your vehicles. All free gasoline does, is lead to massive smuggling of fuel to other countries where they can sell it for a little under market prices.

And this is whats exactly happening in venezuela with cheap gasoline being smuggled to Colombia and other neighbourng countries since very long time, sadly controlled and permitted and exploited and enhanced even by military officers at the border... making riches. 

[Larry Albert + 5]

On 6/22/2018 at 10:39 AM, jose chalhoub said:

completely agreed with these incredible points, thanks for these @Jan van Eck. In fact when you talk about cheap gasoline, its no use to have the cheapest gasoline of the world, and on the other side of the story, a tricky one by the way, you see refineries crumbling, roads crumbling, and when the government raises prices of gasoline, you dont see the results anywhere, so people now dont want any further gasoline prices raise since its seen as corruption more than anything else. Venezuela needs a complete cultural and social reset even before thinking about reorganise its oil industry and its entire society.

Venezuela is like the drug addict, they will have to hit bottom before they might get help.  They are not at bottom yet, but they can probably see it from where they are.

[HermitMunster + 146]

On 6/22/2018 at 6:05 PM, jose chalhoub said:

as simple as we owe at least 30 billions of dollars to China now or around. And we are running out of oil to keep on paying them. China has not written off any of our debts any time so far. Russia in some ways has found ways to pardon venezuela. Russia sees venezuela more geopolitical. China wont hesitate to chunk large pieces of venezuela if need be since they see world in practical terms. We owe way more to China than to Russia. 

Russia has more stake in Venezuela's oil fields than does China. China may have loaned more actual money than Russia, but, China isn't collecting like Russia is.

[Glenn Ellis + 57]

"El Presidente" CHAVEZ and his clone MADURO led the race to the bottom.

The military backing them, is the strange thing.

The Aristocricy, the "elite" educated in Europe or America, the Professional class, and the military comprise roughly 10% of the population.

In the past at least under PJ in the fifties it was different.

He welcomed the American Oil Companies and needed their support.

 

[jose chalhoub + 388]

17 minutes ago, HermitMunster said:

Russia has more stake in Venezuela's oil fields than does China. China may have loaned more actual money than Russia, but, China isn't collecting like Russia is.

well said and i agreed with you but when China starts collecting, i think this will be the end for Venezuela's Maduro. China has been the main financial oxygen for Venezuela. 

[HermitMunster + 146]

22 minutes ago, jose chalhoub said:

well said and i agreed with you but when China starts collecting, i think this will be the end for Venezuela's Maduro. China has been the main financial oxygen for Venezuela. 

Well, I mean, you live there, and I am only getting second-hand information from news outlets like Reuters. Maybe there is new information out there that I am not privy to. I wrote an article last July about how Russia seemingly had certain control over Ven. oil assets and even stake in Citgo possibly but maybe some of that has changed. All I really read about at that time concerning China was how China has simply been a financier of Venezuela but I wasn't reading articles about how Maduro was selling off assets in the Orinoco to China like he was to Russia. Based on what I have read, it seems that China isn't trying to forcibly collect on these loans, and they are just biding their time.

[jose chalhoub + 388]

Dont worry pal. Just to put it this way, Venezuela is a geopolitical pawn for Russia. China just worries about its massive loans and its future in the country. And in my belief, there is negotiations between Washington, Beijing and Moscow over the future of the country. 

[HermitMunster + 146]

Just now, jose chalhoub said:

 Venezuela is a geopolitical pawn for Russia. 

Absolutely. Putin/Sechin/Rosneft having its thumb under the largest oil reserves in the world is hugely geopolitical strategy for them. I don't know what the checkmate move for them is with this, but certainly it has to do with obfuscating U.S. sanctions in some way. 

[jose chalhoub + 388]

And why do you think that much arms sales is for? This is the deal of the deal in geopolitical terms.

[Refman + 207]

5 hours ago, jose chalhoub said:

well said and i agreed with you but when China starts collecting, i think this will be the end for Venezuela's Maduro. China has been the main financial oxygen for Venezuela. 

Venezuela will run out of money even if they never pay China another cent, they are running a big deficit and their biggest source of money (oil) is fast drying up due to lack of maintenance. It's already over, it's just a matter of how long they can survive.

 

[Refman + 207]

The Petropiar upgrader had an explosion and fire last night, further adding to their troubles

Edited June 26, 2018 by Refman

[Glenn Ellis + 57]

Strangely, from a retail marketing standpoint, here in Houston, I just saw two CITGO stations rebranded to PEMEX.

These are independently owned, so I wonder if supply is the issue.

PDVSA has its CITGO HQ on Eldridge here in Houston, but I don't see the traffic in that building like I used to.

Since RAMIREZ is guarding cash registers in Monaco, who is minding the store in their US operations?