Russia to become member of OPEC. Possible?

[jose chalhoub + 388]

Since long its been talked in oil and gas world and markets and geopolitics about any potential chance of Russia becoming member of the OPEC being the eurasian country since soviet times one of the main players in global production and exports of oil and gas, but many issues have prevented it from joining fully the organisation and this time has been one of the closest alliance Russia has maintained with the bloc ever, so much that there had been rumours yet not confirmed that Moscow might become an associate member of the bloc. If Russia joins the OPEC could have important implications for the current geopolitical oil and gas dynamics. But it will be interesting to see how the Kremlin could and would assess its potential membership of OPEC and if it would feel totally obliged to comply with the mechanisms of quotas, production ceiling and if the russian oil and gas system could behave and obey entirely the Kremlin in terms of the formulation of oil and gas policies regarding OPEC. 

I might be wrong with some of my views but this respond to some of my thoughts since long that i have been bringing to myself about this issue especially given the relevance of Russia to OPEC now and vis a vis the growing importance of the U.S. shale to both players. Thoughts and ideas are welcomed here. 

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

How would it benefit Russia to formally join and agree to the constraints of the lunatic asylum group known as OPEC?

[DanilKa + 443]

Cannot totally exclude it - they may have seen benefits of coordinated approach, w/o actually cutting much of production. But doubt OPEC will be allowed to do that.

As for the shale oil - easy comes, easy goes. Too slow to ramp up in case of abrupt supply failure, too fast of a decline to maintain production level. Not saying it will go away - it can be produced at profit (hasn't happen yet, as a whole) but will be severely stressed as credit won't remain cheap forever.

[Guillaume Albasini + 851]

As we can read on some Sputniknews (aka voice of Moscow) articles,  Russia joining the OPEC seems not to be Putin's most likely option.

instead Russia and Saudi Arabia are considering offering all the 24 members of the so-called OPEC+ deal a permanent body with its own constitution and secretariat.  And the new group probably won't stick to OPEC's "one member, one vote" principle, which will likely give more weight in the body to large oil producers like Russia and Saudi Arabia. 

https://sputniknews.com/business/201806231065698426-russia-saudi-arabia-new-petro-alliance/

https://sputniknews.com/analysis/201806261065783128-opec-deal-game-changer/

 

 

 

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

10 minutes ago, Guillaume Albasini said:

instead Russia and Saudi Arabia are considering offering all the 24 members of the so-called OPEC+ deal a permanent body with its own constitution and secretariat.  And the new group probably won't stick to OPEC's "one member, one vote" principle, which will likely give more weight in the body to large oil producers like Russia and Saudi Arabia. 

Anyone recall my only partially facetious comment about OPEC's new motto:

"All oil producers are equal, but some oil producers are more equal than others."

[jose chalhoub + 388]

But definitely Russia has been developing a smart strategy in the Middle East and OPEC has been a target for this but the most interesting issue for me coming is how Moscow will deal with Iran now that it has agreed with Riyadh to ramp up production. Consequences in Syria? Oil and geopolitics go closer than anywhere else in the Middle East and along with Russia. 

[Rodent + 1,424]

I can't see any reason why Russia would tie itself to OPEC on a permanent basis. They've already talked about collaborating with OPEC in a more permanent way, but I see it as Russia asking OPEC to join it rather than the other way around. 

 

[john9hoffman + 2]

It is my opinion that Russia will fall into line with the U.S. and likewise. A Russia, U.S., Saudi bloc is exactly the right thing for Trump to pursue. The U.S. and Russia will control the world's oil and gas pipeline infrastructure meaning they will be able to 'squeeze' anyone in the world and with Saudi’s support they will control the world’s oil supply. This is what the E.U. elites and the Chinese are really worried about. Russia softening toward Saudi Arabia will be Trump's biggest feat and the U.S. 'softening' toward Syria will be Putin's greatest challenge. A Russia, U.S., Saudi bloc is exactly the right thing for Trump to pursue. Go Trump!

[Bhimsen Pachawry + 72]

21 minutes ago, john9hoffman said:

It is my opinion that Russia will fall into line with the U.S. and likewise. A Russia, U.S., Saudi bloc is exactly the right thing for Trump to pursue. The U.S. and Russia will control the world's oil and gas pipeline infrastructure meaning they will be able to 'squeeze' anyone in the world and with Saudi’s support they will control the world’s oil supply. This is what the E.U. elites and the Chinese are really worried about. Russia softening toward Saudi Arabia will be Trump's biggest feat and the U.S. 'softening' toward Syria will be Putin's greatest challenge. A Russia, U.S., Saudi bloc is exactly the right thing for Trump to pursue. Go Trump!

 

It is other way around. KSA has become hostile to USA. It has caught USA mischief and is no longer supportive of USA. So, USA can't make Russia do its bidding by being close to KSA. Also, Russia is no fool to simply toe USA line. Russia is a net oil exporter while USA is a net oil importer. Only USA can benefit by such a move while Russia will lose its bargaining power. USA has nothing to offer to anyone and is just interested in taking from everyone. No one would collaborate with USA

Russia can stay out of OPEC while collaborating opportunistically rather than being compelled to collaborate.

[jose chalhoub + 388]

Very interesting point of views fellas, also i think that Russia from a historical point of view and based on pure national pride has not ever liked to be tied to organisations that in one way or the other limit its actions and this has been reflected in its relationship with OPEC in my view as well and has been playing its collaboration with its own timing and not OPEC's. Also OPEC bargaining power has diminished in the last years in terms of global market share and now it kind of needs Russia more than never. 

[jaycee + 348]

Russia is the top oil producer in the world why would it allow itself to be shackled to a organisation that would try and control it? Easier to sit outside and help out when it feels it meets its objectvies and oppose it with its considerable weight when not. This way it has more power to demand concessions for an agreement it makes with OPEC. I cannot see Russia joining OPEC..

[jose chalhoub + 388]

Thanks this is also what I have always thought. Just posed this issue to discuss in this extremely interesting forum. Russia wont join this organisation anytime soon. 

[Bhimsen Pachawry + 72]

Unlike other countries of OPEC, Russia produces all kinds of goods other than oil which it exports like Arms, metals, gas, minerals like phosphate and even produces its own food in self sufficient manner. Russia does not have to be over reliant on oil unlike the OPEC and can even survive low oil prices. In erstwhile USSR, it was the excessive population growth and the need for food import by exporting oil was what made USSR reliant on oil. But now Russia has many other forms of exports and full self sufficiency. Unlike the Arab countries which solely rely on oil and need to form cartel, for Russia it is voluntary