Will Iran Close Hormuz?

On 7/4/2018 at 4:27 PM, Dan Warnick said:

I for one certainly hope that Iran acts as you outline.  For most of my life I have been hearing what it is that they have been trying to sell (not the oil part) and after all these years it still doesn't work.  Join the world, discuss differences and work through them.  Mr. Trump may wish to consider this advice, too.  :)

 

Perhaps the EU, the UN, NATO, China, Central America, Mexico and Canada will consider this advice as well...

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On ‎7‎/‎4‎/‎2018 at 7:38 AM, Tom Kirkman said:

And once again, Qatar gets ignored by KSA.

The other alternative for Qatar would be to throw its lot in with Iran and export gas via an over land Pipeline straight into Europe via Iran and Turkey.

Iran and Turkey earn some much needed transit revenue and in return Qatar gains the patronage of two of the Middle Easts big boys. In Iran's case it could also help open up European markets to Iranian gas if Qatar willing to finance pipeline and give a percentage of the capacity to Iran to use. An overland pipeline would also generate a lot of local work as opposed to LNG proposals which need a lot of foreign input.

Not sure how Russia would feel about this as it tends to see Europe as a bit of a captive market.

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50 minutes ago, NickW said:

The other alternative for Qatar would be to throw its lot in with Iran and export gas via an over land Pipeline straight into Europe via Iran and Turkey.

Not a bad idea.

This older idea below from 2016 is a goner, nixed by Saudi Arabia:

2016.10.24 - Syria 4_0.jpg

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13 minutes ago, Tom Kirkman said:

Not a bad idea.

This older idea below from 2016 is a goner, nixed by Saudi Arabia:

2016.10.24 - Syria 4_0.jpg

I think I'd give Iraq and Syria a miss.

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(edited)

Iran will not be serious to go to such move ...What will be the beneifits for  Iran and iys alleies ,, Iraq will lose its exports through Basra Port,

  

Edited by Abdelbagi Abdalla Hassan
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Major-General Qassem Soleimani is that dude.

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Oh I'd like to see them "Try". They'd be blown, quite literally, out-of-the-water!!

Capt. Lauren Dowsett

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Looks like Secretary of State Mike Pompeo  left the door open to granting waivers to countries seeking to import Iranian oil 

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2 minutes ago, Sefko Trafikant said:

Looks like Secretary of State Mike Pompeo  left the door open to granting waivers to countries seeking to import Iranian oil 

None of the other signatories (especially Russia and China) are going to reinstitute sanctions when the agreement was broken by U.S. not Iran. So waiver might be useful to Exxon..... 

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9 minutes ago, Ja’Nako Bezze said:

None of the other signatories (especially Russia and China) are going to reinstitute sanctions when the agreement was broken by U.S. not Iran. So waiver might be useful to Exxon..... 

The only leverage the US had with Iran was enforcing the agreement Trump pulled out of. 

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For the past decade I am still digesting geopolitical fact that Iran is our enemy, but the Saudi's are our friends

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Unless china decides to send an aircraft carrier to keep their supply from Saudi Arabia and Iran, yes

but even if that happens Saudi Arabia has the B-Plan to use other ports and Oman for oil shipments

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This idea the US absolutely needs Middle East oil is not supported by the numbers. Net oil imports for the US according to the EIA around 2.7 mbpd. Canada exports a net 3 mbpd to the US. Essentially N America is oil independent. 

So that other approximant 7 mbpd of imports. Reshipped, refined and reshipped as diesel, gasoline and other products. 

As US production grows Trump leverage over Canada grows as the US controls Canadian oil access to the Gulf.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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19 hours ago, HermitMunster said:

Major-General Qassem Soleimani is that dude.

Islamic Governments thrive on crisis of one form or another to distract their resident populations- this statement is just another attempt at generating crisis.

Most Iranians realise that any attempt to close Hormuz will result in their Fairline Navy forming a new artificial reef in the Persian Gulf especially now that Trump is charge and not that Clown Obama.

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On 7/9/2018 at 3:04 PM, Guillaume Albasini said:

The Asian countries would be more affected by the closing the Strait of Hormuz than the US.

So what you are saying is that if we put this statement in the context of the trade dispute between the US and China, it is in US's best interests for the Strait of Hormuz to be closed.  I am now very interested to see how this will develop.

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On 7/10/2018 at 2:11 PM, Joanna said:

For the past decade I am still digesting geopolitical fact that Iran is our enemy, but the Saudi's are our friends

This makes a lot more sense when you first assume that people like Osama Bin Laden are probably CIA or Mossad.  

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8 hours ago, Epic said:

This makes a lot more sense when you first assume that people like Osama Bin Laden are probably CIA or Mossad.  

The enemy of my enemy is my friend.

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On 7/10/2018 at 8:39 PM, Sebastian Meana said:

Unless china decides to send an aircraft carrier to keep their supply from Saudi Arabia and Iran, yes

but even if that happens Saudi Arabia has the B-Plan to use other ports and Oman for oil shipments

East - west pipeline to the red sea yes. However they can't use Oman as there is no physical link. They could load oil at RT or Juaymah and unload in the UAE as they have a link to the Arabia sea but I suspect UAE will get the first call on that. 

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