Short term down, Long term, Skys the Limit!

[taamvan + 19]

I see alot of old wizards here and lots of good commentary.  This website is great.

After driving season, oil is likely to retrace.  But im still bullish regarding osd and services.

 

Oil moves in a distinct 7 year pattern of surge and slack.  Technology, interest rates, and geopolitics define this cycle.  We are at the midpoint of that cycle now, with ever higher basing prices in each phase ($10 in 1990, $70 in 2020) which are about double the inflation in that period.

 

Oil is not rare, nor is capital.  There is plenty of capacity, but as interest rates rise along with the market, the money hides from capex.  The worlds insatiable demand for petro grows, and at least 1-2 more cycles remain before ev, wind and anticoal can hopefully change the cycle.

 

As an investor, i see a weaker dollar, booming world economy, diminishing capex and geopolitical conflict via trompy as strong bullish headwinds that take us to new nominal higs by 2023, spot at $120+

 

EsV is my primary play 5 years out i see $15-20

Mro @ $50

FTk above $8

mcf $10+ mcx $15+ crk $25-30 easy

 

Thanks for listening