Brent down $2 or 2.5% on the day...

[Martin + 31]

...and this against a supposedly bullish outlook. Any ideas what’s driving this or do you think it’s profit taking or normal market gyrations?

Any information or perspectives you wish to share will be greatly appreciated.

Thanks very much.

[Rodent + 1,424]

5 hours ago, Martin said:

...and this against a supposedly bullish outlook. Any ideas what’s driving this or do you think it’s profit taking or normal market gyrations?

Any information or perspectives you wish to share will be greatly appreciated.

Thanks very much.

Well, normally oil prices would have jumped as the EIA reported a more than 12 million bpd inventory draw in the US. However, OPEC's monthly oil market report was also released today, which reported that Saudi Arabia has already increased production for June (and didn't wait for the meeting it had recently). OPEC's MOMR also showed new estimates of a lower oil demand--specifically for OPEC's oil--than previous forecasts. 

[Martin + 31]

Thanks Rodent, your analysis conforms to what Jim Iuorio via CME and Phil Flynn's Energy Report allude to, that is, that the Saudis are being disingenuous about their production numbers and are likely to continue to be so.

With my futures position under water, looking forward to some positive jaw-boning of the market higher, that is, until POTUS starts talking it down again. Interesting times...

[Rodent + 1,424]

4 minutes ago, Martin said:

Thanks Rodent, your analysis conforms to what Jim Iuorio via CME and Phil Flynn's Energy Report allude to, that is, that the Saudis are being disingenuous about their production numbers and are likely to continue to be so.

With my futures position under water, looking forward to some positive jaw-boning of the market higher, that is, until POTUS starts talking it down again. Interesting times...

My condolences on your futures position  

I feel the strong need to add a routine disclaimer... I am but a journalist with strong but not always relevant opinions. (And I hold no position in any oil- or energy-related stock.) I don't what to talk about what stock I do hold.... 

 

 

[Martin + 31]

No worries at all and thanks, however no condolences needed. I like to speculate and that's what futures are for, I use other instruments for so-called investments. My time horizon with this position is also medium term, so as long as things don't go pear-shaped with some unforeseen positives, then I think that the weight of market factors leaning on the bull side should see me fine in the next little while. I think there is only so much talking that can influence a market and once the words are digested, the intrinsic supply and demand factors assert themselves.

Oil is somewhat unique as a market in that geopolitical shocks tend to drive the price higher, in contrary to most other assets... people used to mention gold in the same breath but it's fair to say that the weight of the derivative market has far overwhelmed the physical in the last decade or so. The big, bad, ugly oil market could be the last lawless frontier...?

[Jesse Man + 17]

Now 5 dollars down

Edited July 11, 2018 by Jesse Man