Venezuela, the largest oil reserve in the world, faces deep shortages of motor oil

[jose chalhoub + 388]

On a personal anecdote, i need to change my motor oil of my car, and Im nervous since i dont know if and when im going to find 5 liters of motor oil for my car sedan Honda Civic, which will cost me not that little in bolivares, but surely cheap in dollars (at least 6 dollars per liter of motor oil) in black market. And this is not just my story but of thousands of people now in this situation reflected in the reduced number of cars in streets and national roads. In my view, this is the most visible face of the destruction of the venezuela's oil industry. 

[HermitMunster + 146]

15 minutes ago, jose chalhoub said:

On a personal anecdote, i need to change my motor oil of my car, and Im nervous since i dont know if and when im going to find 5 liters of motor oil for my car sedan Honda Civic, which will cost me not that little in bolivares, but surely cheap in dollars (at least 6 dollars per liter of motor oil) in black market. And this is not just my story but of thousands of people now in this situation reflected in the reduced number of cars in streets and national roads. In my view, this is the most visible face of the destruction of the venezuela's oil industry. 

I cannot imagine living thru something like this and I genuinely have much empathy for you. I don't know what light on the horizon there is for Venezuela right now and I can't imagine China giving the country another $5 billion is going to help matters. 

[jose chalhoub + 388]

1 minute ago, HermitMunster said:

I cannot imagine living thru something like this and I genuinely have much empathy for you. I don't know what light on the horizon there is for Venezuela right now and I can't imagine China giving the country another $5 billion is going to help matters. 

believe me its really hard and really awful and ironic for Venezuela to be living this agony. I don't think China and even Russia will be sustaining this chaotic state of affairs for long since i have had the opportunity to talk and interrelate with russians and chinese in the oil sector and other areas and they are running out of patience and worried about their investments here and how the situation will unfold in the future. 

[Sebastian Meana + 278]

Venezuela has the biggest reservers of conventional heavy crude, but that's just a part there's around 1.4 trillion barrells of oil sands, and likely 6 trillion barrells of shales oil

The problem is that PDVSA concentrated mostly on extracting oil seeing how the refineries did get older and older, and giving that money to the government of Venezuela that didn't decide to industrialize a country or at least retire money out from circulation, they didn't diversify any major oil producer produces all kind of stuff derived from oil

[William Edwards + 708]

Venezuela is entering the roughest part of a cycle where government policy doomed the country's economy. After the collapse there will be light returning at the end of the tunnel. New policy will prevail, and actions will be severely restricted by economic realities.

The United States is at an earlier stage of a similar path. It appears that we have passed the point of no return and government policy will now take us down the same path that Venezuela has followed. It may take longer to play out, but the end result will be the same.  Disaster followed by measured recovery.

It was written many centuries ago, "By the sweat of your brow will you toil all your days". So it shall be. There is no free lunch! (Derivatives traders take note).

Edited July 14, 2018 by William Edwards

[jose chalhoub + 388]

2 hours ago, William Edwards said:

Venezuela is entering the roughest part of a cycle where government policy doomed the country's economy. After the collapse there will be light returning at the end of the tunnel. New policy will prevail, and actions will be severely restricted by economic realities.

The United States is at an earlier stage of a similar path. It appears that we have passed the point of no return and government policy will now take us down the same path that Venezuela has followed. It may take longer to play out, but the end result will be the same.  Disaster followed by measured recovery.

It was written many centuries ago, "By the sweat of your brow will you toil all your days". So it shall be. There is no free lunch! (Derivatives traders take note).

thanks sir really appreciate your thoughts here. Definitely when a new reality comes after this, because definitely there needs to come, a thorough process of cleanup needs to be inserted into PDVSA, new people, people overseas very skilled who were expelled by Chavez and also young workers who started during the Bolivarian Revolution, skilled many of them since i met them during my period there, all of them need to contribute to the reform of the venezuelan oil industry, a new organisational culture and a new direction, and for God's sake, keep away the armed forces from ruling the oil company, hey i buy the fact that maybe the security department needs to count with some of armed forces officers active or retired but not give away the entire industry to generals and colonels just as a prize in order to keep Maduro where he is. Definitely no, not the way. 

[jaycee + 348]

5 hours ago, jose chalhoub said:

believe me its really hard and really awful and ironic for Venezuela to be living this agony. I don't think China and even Russia will be sustaining this chaotic state of affairs for long since i have had the opportunity to talk and interrelate with russians and chinese in the oil sector and other areas and they are running out of patience and worried about their investments here and how the situation will unfold in the future. 

Jose

where do you think this will end, peaceful change of government or civil war? It would be very  interesting to hear from a person there as I only speak to exiles who left a few years ago 

[jose chalhoub + 388]

16 minutes ago, jaycee said:

Jose

where do you think this will end, peaceful change of government or civil war? It would be very  interesting to hear from a person there as I only speak to exiles who left a few years ago 

thanks for the interest and concern @jaycee.personally i dont think these people will hand out power peacefully, and sadly i think there will run more blood in order to get these thugs out, since at the same time there is no serious and responsible opposition leadership at all and also the government is breathing by these same opposition linked businessmen which to survive and thrive in this environment had to be linked with the government since they are the ones controlling everything here. I dont see any electoral transition either from any government will or by any credible opposition leadership since there's a huge void now in the opposition ranks. Venezuela needs a thorough revamp, social cultural a deep transformation which will take decades in my belief. Its not enough to change regime if we don't change as a country our vices our mistakes from decades. Sadly will take more pain but hopefully to revive as a country out of the ashes. 

[Rodent + 1,424]

8 hours ago, jose chalhoub said:

On a personal anecdote, i need to change my motor oil of my car, and Im nervous since i dont know if and when im going to find 5 liters of motor oil for my car sedan Honda Civic, which will cost me not that little in bolivares, but surely cheap in dollars (at least 6 dollars per liter of motor oil) in black market. And this is not just my story but of thousands of people now in this situation reflected in the reduced number of cars in streets and national roads. In my view, this is the most visible face of the destruction of the venezuela's oil industry. 

is it that the motor oil is not easily found at all, or it's not easily found at a price that is affordable? or both? and what about gas for your Civic? 

[jaycee + 348]

9 hours ago, jose chalhoub said:

thanks for the interest and concern @jaycee.personally i dont think these people will hand out power peacefully, and sadly i think there will run more blood in order to get these thugs out, since at the same time there is no serious and responsible opposition leadership at all and also the government is breathing by these same opposition linked businessmen which to survive and thrive in this environment had to be linked with the government since they are the ones controlling everything here. I dont see any electoral transition either from any government will or by any credible opposition leadership since there's a huge void now in the opposition ranks. Venezuela needs a thorough revamp, social cultural a deep transformation which will take decades in my belief. Its not enough to change regime if we don't change as a country our vices our mistakes from decades. Sadly will take more pain but hopefully to revive as a country out of the ashes. 

Sadly I agree regime change is never easy in any country especially an oil rich one. I hope it not as bloody as others have been recently.

[DanilKa + 443]

On 7/15/2018 at 6:35 AM, jose chalhoub said:

personally i dont think these people will hand out power peacefully, and sadly i think there will run more blood in order to get these thugs out, since at the same time there is no serious and responsible opposition leadership at all and also the government is breathing by these same opposition linked businessmen which to survive and thrive in this environment had to be linked with the government since they are the ones controlling everything here

Absurd and rare moment when one wishes for military coup d’état as a least bloody resolution... 

Annexing/occupation/“humanitarian intervention” by other country may also go without much fight, however can’t see volunteers just yet. 

Feel for you, being there. End of socialism is no fun. Stay safe, hermano. 

[jose chalhoub + 388]

2 hours ago, DanilKa said:

Absurd and rare moment when one wishes for military coup d’état as a least bloody resolution... 

Annexing/occupation/“humanitarian intervention” by other country may also go without much fight, however can’t see volunteers just yet. 

Feel for you, being there. End of socialism is no fun. Stay safe, hermano. 

i will bro, planning to relocate sometime soon this year, and definitely no intervention is safe for any country as history has proven to all of us, no war is good nor bad, definitely no war im not pro intervention but definitely i am the one who thinks that the endgame for this will come with a foreign participation since we are tremendously lacking from a serious and responsible opposition, not a mockery of one, they lost all respect from their followers in my view. And yes the motor oil crisis is still on the table and will be as soon as our refining circuit stays in this miserable state, since we are not processing and running the same amount of oil as we used to do many decades ago, i saw some of our refineries and one refinery that doesnt have a good fire extinguisher system definitely will have many problems as i saw in one of them not too long ago. We need a complete overhaul and revamping of our entire industry from A to Z. Period 

Quote

 

 

[Refman + 207]

I've heard that tires and batteries are also very hard to find in Venezuela.

I'm not sure if Venezuelan refineries made any Lube oils in the past, or if motor oil has always been imported.

 

[jaycee + 348]

3 hours ago, jose chalhoub said:

i will bro, planning to relocate sometime soon this year, and definitely no intervention is safe for any country as history has proven to all of us, no war is good nor bad, definitely no war im not pro intervention but definitely i am the one who thinks that the endgame for this will come with a foreign participation since we are tremendously lacking from a serious and responsible opposition, not a mockery of one, they lost all respect from their followers in my view. And yes the motor oil crisis is still on the table and will be as soon as our refining circuit stays in this miserable state, since we are not processing and running the same amount of oil as we used to do many decades ago, i saw some of our refineries and one refinery that doesnt have a good fire extinguisher system definitely will have many problems as i saw in one of them not too long ago. We need a complete overhaul and revamping of our entire industry from A to Z. Period 

 

Intersting you say you expect foreign intervention to be very likely the most likely candidate for that would be China since they have pumped a lot off money into the country. How would your countrymen view the Chinese taking effective control of the country? Let's disregard American objections here as that is a major issue on it's own.

[jose chalhoub + 388]

4 hours ago, Refman said:

I've heard that tires and batteries are also very hard to find in Venezuela.

I'm not sure if Venezuelan refineries made any Lube oils in the past, or if motor oil has always been imported.

 

nope refineries are in practically shambles and yes many people are now importing motor oils in boxes and of many qualities since its very hard to find national brands now, well especially from PDVSA.

[jose chalhoub + 388]

2 hours ago, jaycee said:

Intersting you say you expect foreign intervention to be very likely the most likely candidate for that would be China since they have pumped a lot off money into the country. How would your countrymen view the Chinese taking effective control of the country? Let's disregard American objections here as that is a major issue on it's own.

chinese people have been living here since long and very active as job providers but not in this way and heavily backed by the government, and now they have been seen with some sort of suspicions in my view. Also the russians. Venezuela has always been admirers and lovers of U.S. culture in many ways. 

[DanilKa + 443]

2 hours ago, jose chalhoub said:

Venezuela has always been admirers and lovers of U.S. culture in many ways. 

I was joking that moment Coke and Whiskey are not available will mark an end of regime. But that was like 10 years ago and party is still going. Take a while for people to sober up...

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

On 7/15/2018 at 1:55 AM, jaycee said:

Sadly I agree regime change is never easy in any country especially an oil rich one. I hope it not as bloody as others have been recently.

The model for regime change in Venezuela is 1989 and Nicolae Ceaușescu in Romania.  To quote:

"Economic mismanagement due to failed oil ventures during the 1970s led to skyrocketing foreign debts for Romania; in 1982, he exported much of the country's agricultural and industrial production in an effort to repay them. The shortages that followed drastically lowered living standards, leading to heavy rationing of food, water, oil, heat, electricity, medicine, and other necessities. His cult of personality experienced unprecedented elevation, followed by extensive nepotism and the intense deterioration of foreign relations, even with the Soviet Union.

As anti-government protesters demonstrated in Timișoara in December 1989, he perceived the demonstrations as a political threat and ordered military forces to open fire on 17 December, causing many deaths and injuries. The revelation that Ceaușescu was responsible resulted in a massive spread of rioting and civil unrest across the country.[4] The demonstrations, which reached Bucharest, became known as the Romanian Revolution—the only violent overthrow of a communist government in the turn of the Revolutions of 1989.[5] Ceaușescu and his wife, Elena, fled the capital in a helicopter, but were captured by the armed forces after the armed forces changed sides. On 25 December, after being tried and convicted of economic sabotage and genocide,[6] they were immediately executed by firing squad."

 

Since Maduro knows that that will be his fate, he and his goons will resist violently and viciously.  Ultimately, the army will "change sides" and then he will be executed.  Only then will the rebirth of Venezuela begin.  A sad situation, to be sure. 

[jaycee + 348]

 

Jan

are you sure the army will turn on el Presidente? They are heavily into running and skimming profits from PDSV I thought. Maybe tbey will take over and be even more violent in suppressing the populace than Maduro. I don't know the country very well though so can be dissuaded but to me the army may protect their position strongly depends on how well Maduro has looked after them in the past I guess. 

 

 

[jose chalhoub + 388]

2 hours ago, jaycee said:

 

Jan

are you sure the army will turn on el Presidente? They are heavily into running and skimming profits from PDSV I thought. Maybe tbey will take over and be even more violent in suppressing the populace than Maduro. I don't know the country very well though so can be dissuaded but to me the army may protect their position strongly depends on how well Maduro has looked after them in the past I guess. 

 

 

one thing is the high ranks of the army, that is, colonel, generals, members of the national guard and the joint chief of staff that are making millions who wont see a regime change convenient to their fates and situation, but i know and seen many soldiers of lower ranks having hard times to eat and find basic products, so i dont think and buy the fact that the army is entirely supportive of Maduro regime. 

[jose chalhoub + 388]

On 7/14/2018 at 6:09 PM, Rodent said:

is it that the motor oil is not easily found at all, or it's not easily found at a price that is affordable? or both? and what about gas for your Civic? 

sometimes both but the majority of the situations are that the prices are tremendously high for a litre of oil, prompting the import of packs of motor oil from the U.S. mainly, and also the quality of the motor oil here produced by PDV is not as good as it used to be, well, due to the whole chaos of the industry now in the country. 

[jose chalhoub + 388]

15 hours ago, DanilKa said:

I was joking that moment Coke and Whiskey are not available will mark an end of regime. But that was like 10 years ago and party is still going. Take a while for people to sober up...

venezuelan people is really hard to understand for me in times of crisis, sometimes they try to be resilient and sometimes not, i dont really know anymore, and well even if beers and other liquors are currently too expensive in bolivares, people are really finding ways to keep up drinking and forgetting about all this situation. Funny thing is that the owner of Polar, thought to be a harsh opponent in the dark of Maduro and the revolution has been undoubtedly making millions selling beers, still being seen at markets and liquor stores all across the country. 

[jose chalhoub + 388]

15 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

The model for regime change in Venezuela is 1989 and Nicolae Ceaușescu in Romania.  To quote:

"Economic mismanagement due to failed oil ventures during the 1970s led to skyrocketing foreign debts for Romania; in 1982, he exported much of the country's agricultural and industrial production in an effort to repay them. The shortages that followed drastically lowered living standards, leading to heavy rationing of food, water, oil, heat, electricity, medicine, and other necessities. His cult of personality experienced unprecedented elevation, followed by extensive nepotism and the intense deterioration of foreign relations, even with the Soviet Union.

As anti-government protesters demonstrated in Timișoara in December 1989, he perceived the demonstrations as a political threat and ordered military forces to open fire on 17 December, causing many deaths and injuries. The revelation that Ceaușescu was responsible resulted in a massive spread of rioting and civil unrest across the country.[4] The demonstrations, which reached Bucharest, became known as the Romanian Revolution—the only violent overthrow of a communist government in the turn of the Revolutions of 1989.[5] Ceaușescu and his wife, Elena, fled the capital in a helicopter, but were captured by the armed forces after the armed forces changed sides. On 25 December, after being tried and convicted of economic sabotage and genocide,[6] they were immediately executed by firing squad."

 

Since Maduro knows that that will be his fate, he and his goons will resist violently and viciously.  Ultimately, the army will "change sides" and then he will be executed.  Only then will the rebirth of Venezuela begin.  A sad situation, to be sure. 

I dont really think the situation could be exactly like this, and people got tired of the many deaths already being a toll after past protests having led nowhere and to nothing else than the destruction of the opposition. Regime change will come in another way in my view, something unexpected, unpredicted.