67.50 was the low for now, $70 - $76+ back in play

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Sometimes the market won't give you the targets you request, at those times you need to take what you can, and say thank you, and simply go with the flow, although predicting a $10 move against the crowd is no easy feat. But if your ego is in the way, the market will mince and dice you, and teach you and your company a lesson in humility. Probably a lesson that remains with you and your group for a long long time, assuming you are still around, look at CHK it went from $60 to $4, due to bad timing. The shorts had their fun, the bulls learnt their lesson, hopefully, now the bulls will regroup, the producers for now can take a deep breath. The analysts will now come back out of the woodwork, until the next big surprise, which again will catch everyone of guard. Again this is how my eyes sees the market,  I could be wrong, but its highly doubtful, don't want to sound too sure of myself, but simply talking from past experience. Remember the big move down in Oil could come if President Trump opens up the spigots on the SPRs, or some other supply glut surprises, such as sanctions removed on Iran, Venezuela pumping, new oil discoveries, the shale people getting their act together, or something else. And again a big move up could come from some bottleneck in supplies, pick a reason.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

well wti tried to go up a couple of times, but was knocked back down. so far doesn't look good for bulls. Would need to drop lower for me to admit defeat.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

22 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

well wti tried to go up a couple of times, but was knocked back down. so far doesn't look good for bulls. Would need to drop lower for me to admit defeat.

I'm watching this too, to see what happens.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

BREAKING NEWS:

 

EIA: Seven Major US Shale Regions To Hit New Production Records

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Well if you believe that that would mean wti should go down. For me that news is negligible.Remember to me news don't define the prices, but the charts speaks the future, not the news. However, with most people who use their brain, they go well what is the news, let me trade of that. So you do whatever drives you.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

Just now, Top Oil Trader said:

Well if you believe that that would mean wti should go down. For me that news is negligible.Remember to me news don't define the prices, but the charts speaks the future, not the news. However, with most people who use their brain, they go well what is the news, let me trade of that. So you do whatever drives you.

Ok, tell us what the charts say now.  Up or down?

 

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

I'm pretty sure there are a lot more people watching what you are sharing with us right now.  Everyone loves a winner!

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Hi friends, as you see Oil like to play chicken. And is very effective at it. I imho still see 67.50 range as the immediate bottom for now. Even though lots of news came in to bring down the oil prices further, the charts tell a different story. And if I won't listen to the charts, no one will. It is hard not to be swayed by the masses, but again, sometimes you got to make a stand. Clint Eastwood has a saying, "A man got to know his limitations". And that usually follows with a gunshot.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Well let my try to simplify it a little, since I understand most people here are fundamentalists. The price from what I see stays in this range 67.50, and as soon as 68.80 is broken, so that would be another 130 basis points up, or $1.30 up, the uptrend will have a very strong chance of continuing. There you have it 2 numbers to look out for. All i can say now, is, "may the force be with us". ...Star Wars music is heard in the background.

[Harsh vardhan singh + 36]

Agreed with your point of view because as when oil at $80 at that time everyone just started rumors that $80 is too high and everyone started speculating for $65 and some for $70-$75 and now the situation is taking us back towards reality....far from artificial pricing and now we will see the reality because news and speculations always disturbed prices but ground level reality is always comes from chart and it maintains prices....

1 hour ago, Top Oil Trader said:

Hi friends, as you see Oil like to play chicken. And is very effective at it. I imho still see 67.50 range as the immediate bottom for now. Even though lots of news came in to bring down the oil prices further, the charts tell a different story. And if I won't listen to the charts, no one will. It is hard not to be swayed by the masses, but again, sometimes you got to make a stand. Clint Eastwood has a saying, "A man got to know his limitations". And that usually follows with a gunshot.

 

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

A fellow chartist, in da house.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

I hate to say this, but, I rest my case, the jury has spoken, 5 min recess.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Well, since we went down for a couple of days, a drop in price that no one predicted, not the news, not the analysts, no the research companies. Notice now that I am saying it should go back up, all of a sudden these same people that said oil was going way up, are now saying it is going down and that we are in a bear trend.

What we see from this example, is that most trader on CME or Analysts, always follows the simplest path. But not until, it moves a nice chunk against their previous guess. And now the major guess from the previous bulls, is we are going down. So lets see how it plays out. The fact that prices are still below 68, is a concern, it means the bulls are not yet back.

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

23 hours ago, Top Oil Trader said:

Hi friends, as you see Oil like to play chicken. And is very effective at it. I imho still see 67.50 range as the immediate bottom for now. Even though lots of news came in to bring down the oil prices further, the charts tell a different story. And if I won't listen to the charts, no one will. It is hard not to be swayed by the masses, but again, sometimes you got to make a stand. Clint Eastwood has a saying, "A man got to know his limitations". And that usually follows with a gunshot.

I'm dumbfounded.  We seem to have similar end views, although arrived at in totally different ways.  Mostly I ignore charts, and tend to view with skepticism most MSM blatherings.

From my earlier comments here, I reluctantly conceded last month that my hope for a relative balance between oil producers and oil consumers at around $65 this year was probably too low, and oil prices seem to be heading toward $80 by Autumn.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Very good. It is very hard for investors to determine price based on current events, but maybe you figured it out.

[Fantom + 6]

let's wait for today's news?

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Well here is the thing. If the uptrend was indeed in place, then prices should be higher, must stay above 68. So far they are trying, but something is holding them down. That something is the current over supply. right now prices are moving very fast, so some news is coming out. It may be good for oil

Edited July 18, 2018 by Top Oil Trader
updated

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

2 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

Well here is the thing. If the uptrend was indeed in place, then prices should be higher, must stay above 68. So far they are trying, but something is holding them down. That something is the current over supply. So we may actually go down, more.

Uncertainty wrecks havoc in markets. Uncertainty trumps oversupply in any oil poker game, IMHO.  Add in the reduced spare capacity globally (KSA bullsh***ing again) and the markets have a problem to sort out and gamble on.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

From the chart perspective the oil prices should head up, but, with it being so volatile, it could make one more drop, this could be based on the manipulators, algos or just some more bad news. And to predict the exact price of the up move, even I sometimes get it wrong. I thought it would be 67.50 once it hit it again, and it would go up, which it did yesterday, but something quickly brought it back down, and they may try to bring oil down further. However, I still stand by my view, that Oil should head back up, simply based on the charts, but the news is what still is making it uncertain, at this point we need the price to at least go past 68, for bulls to be put at ease. One thing for sure oil is super volatile, lots of money is lost by people making the wrong bets.

Edited July 18, 2018 by Top Oil Trader
added info

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Just looked at a day trading chart I use sometimes. And it would seem they are trying to break Oil up, for now.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

If they don't bring the prices above 68, will simply close my latest longs from 67.50, and rethink the longs. But probability is they will break 68 and move it back up.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

In oil if you want to succeed, you need to have lots of conviction in what you believe so in my case your system, and have lots of patience, and not get scared when they try to fool you, and they do try set you up all the time, which is why lots of hedge funds with all their brainpower end up closing shop with massive losses. And why CHK went from the 60s to 4 by not knowing that oil prices would drop hard, before investing massively, all they had to do was wait for the drop to the 20s, which would happen, and then invest as oil prices went up. This would be the trick for most producers especially small ones to stay in business, you invest when prices are going up, not when they are falling hard, and your profits won't be able to cover your loans. But of course they know that, but they don't understand price movements, which is where they end up losing big.

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

8 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

From the chart perspective the oil prices should head up, but, with it being so volatile, it could make one more drop, this could be based on the manipulators, algos or just some more bad news. 

This is where we radically differ.  I don't pay attention to charts, and you do.  We arrive at our own conclusions using very different routes.

I still maintain that oil seems to be heading toward $80 by Autumn.  My general conclusion is based on a wide range of information about geopolitics, (shrinking) spare capacity, bottlenecks in midstream U.S. LTO, Venezuela in a death spiral, Libya foitbullets, along with the simple fact that higher oil prices kill global energy demand.

Just my opinion; as always, you are free to disagree.

[Fantom + 6]

for once again you are in the right place

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

17 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

In oil if you want to succeed, you need to have lots of conviction in what you believe so in my case your system, and have lots of patience, and not get scared when they try to fool you, and they do try set you up all the time, which is why lots of hedge funds with all their brainpower end up closing shop with massive losses. 

Um, disagree.

I'm in charge of PMO, Project Management and Engineering.  Nothing to do with oil trading.

My interest in oil prices can be boiled down to 2 main factors:

● oil prices not too high to kill global economies

● oil prices not too low to hurt oil producers long term