Market to fall 70% in 2 months?

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Well I guess the analysts must have read my post I wrote at the beginning of the week, since now they are saying a big plunge is possible in 2 months.

https://banyanhill.com/exclusives/70-stock-market-crash-to-strike-august-1-economist-warns/?z=977296

Edited July 18, 2018 by Top Oil Trader
added

[Sebastian Meana + 278]

I mean is possible another market chrash the thing is that well managed oil companies don't care that much about the investors money a well managed company only uses stock market to get funding for first time and then living by their profits to make infrastructure. That's the difference between a well managed company and things like Twitter and Tesla.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

everything is possible. not at all. amazon during crash went from 400 to 5 then to 1700, 20 years later. When they drop they all drop

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

On 7/19/2018 at 12:30 AM, Top Oil Trader said:

Well I guess the analysts must have read my post I wrote at the beginning of the week, since now they are saying a big plunge is possible in 2 months.

https://banyanhill.com/exclusives/70-stock-market-crash-to-strike-august-1-economist-warns/?z=977296

I love the sheep analysis, and I believe it is spot on.  Soooo many factors screaming that a MAJOR correction is coming, and coming soon.  Not least of which is that the garbage was not taken out back in 2008/9 and bailouts allowed the worst of the worst offenders to continue (I'm talking about the banks, insurers and major brokerages).  They will not be bailed out this time because the government reserves are not there this time.  This is only one of many MAJOR factors and the general public doesn't seem to be adjusting and preparing their finances accordingly.  I hope I'm wrong about that and that the majority is actually preparing themselves.  This is not "The world is ending" BS, it's a cycle that needs to happen on a regular basis in order to reset imbalances.  This one should be big, really big.  Just my two cent's worth.

Edited July 20, 2018 by Dan Warnick

[Epic + 390]

4 hours ago, Dan Warnick said:

I love the sheep analysis

 

On 7/18/2018 at 12:30 PM, Top Oil Trader said:

https://banyanhill.com/exclusives/70-stock-market-crash-to-strike-august-1-economist-warns/?z=977296

I would tread carefully concerning this video.  After having watched the entire thing, I'd like to warn everyone else on this community: the video dangerously misconstrues several important facts.  It does this because it is an advertisement designed to swindle $199 yearly from unsuspecting investors, and it does this in direction violation of US securities law.  For instance: "backtracking" your data like he does in the video: violation (one can only advertise real performance, not theoretical performance).  He also points out several investment he did supposedly make, but without offering a means to prove those trades (such as by offering trade confirmations), it becomes a violation.  Offering advice as to when to buy or sell in exchange for some benefit to himself (in the video, that benefit is a $199 yearly subscription), but then not claiming to have a securities licence in the appropriate jurisdictions is also a violation.  I'm sure there were more violations that the SEC would find with this video, but those were the one's that initially jumped out at me.  This guy should probably be reported to the SEC so they can take away his securities licence...if he even has one.  He is trying to circumvent securities law by claiming this is a "private" video, despite the fact it is clearly designed to lure new investors into buying his securities product...another violation.

The guy in the video also demonstrates his own incompetence by suggesting that stock buybacks will inflate stock prices.  This is false.  Stock buybacks have the same end result as stock dividends, they just get to the end result using two different methods.  Both return value to the investor, the dividends do it by distributing earnings, whereas the buybacks do it by using those same earnings to increase EPS, which drives up the price of the stock.  This is not an artificial increase, but an actual increase to the value of the stock because EPS is also increasing.  The key difference between dividend distributions and stock buy backs is that dividends to not give the investor a choice as to when to be subject to taxes, whereas stock buybacks do provide that choice.  Thus, we see that stock buybacks are actually in the investor's best interest.   (none of this material and factual information was even provided in the video!)

He was also wrong about the facts he gave concerning the 1929 crash.  The crash did not happen because of stock buy backs.  It happened because of the leverage used to manipulate the stock prices.  For instance, some investors were borrowing at 100-1 ratio!  That is insane.  Today, securities law limits margin trading to 2-1 (however I should point out that back in February, some people found clever ways to circumvent this law by purchasing options on levered etfs, and has since been made illegal after it rocked the market with a 10% drop). 

The point, however, is that stock buybacks, alone, serve only to benefit shareholders by giving them the choice as to when they want to be taxed on their gains/losses.  It is just as likely that stock buybacks will result in a market crash as it is that dividend payments will result in a market crash, and dividend payments have never made the market crash.

In sum, I've seen better sales pitches by annuity salesmen.  Don't waste your time watching the posted video, and if you do (or have), then remember to take everything you see in it with a gain of salt...a hefty grain of salt. 

The only thing they guy in the video mentions which posses any material risk to the markets is, of course, margin trading.  And as you can see from the following link, margin trading values are dangerously high and have been for a while, though they are certainly not as high as they were during '29 crash... not even close. 

 https://www.finra.org/investors/margin-statistics

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Ok. I didnt know he was selling anything, i thought it was just some analysts saying Dow Jones would sell off. 

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Im watching the video now, I kind of like it, and I think it all makes sense.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

2 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

Im watching the video now, I kind of like it, and I think it all makes sense.

I watched it too.  It's ok.  I don't really care if he is doing anything wrong that could get him in trouble.  It is another good perspective that helps to understand the multi-market bubbles that are obviously happening.  Yes, it is true that you have to watch out for his upselling, and there is a lot of it if you follow it through.  Several thousand $$$ worth of upselling actually.  I get the feedback from CC since I have seen other newsletters that are very careful about specific recommendations, but again that's his problem.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

I am in the middle of watching it and i think its really good. tks for pointing out there was a video. Certainly in 1929 it was margin calls, i think you only needed 10% for margin. Plus everyone was wrong, the news the big shoots, except for maybe 1 or 2 guys who raked it in. Just like Jones did in 1987. He made 200 mill on the crash.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

I love what he says, he won't be able to change my mind no matter what he says, unless I think likewise. I would need to check it myself anyways. And if what he says doesn't show up in my charts, I will discount it anyways.  People are responsible for their own decisions, if you choose to listen to someone else, its your own fault. Just focus on their arguments , and see how they fit in with yours.

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

No.  Just... no.

How the heck am I the voice of reason here?  Bizarro world.

No, I don't realistically see oil prices falling 70% and staying there for long.

Best of luck with your hedges or trades or whatever.

Sub - $40 oil is simply not sustainable in the long run, in much the same way that $100+ oil is not sustainable in the long run.

Short term peaks and valleys are short term.  Try thinking longer.

[Epic + 390]

1 hour ago, Tom Kirkman said:

How the heck am I the voice of reason here?

Hi Tom.  I have to disagree with the sarcasm in your statement here.  I have read a lot of your posts, and I think you are the voice of reason much more often than you give yourself credit for.  But that is besides the point.  My actual point was that Top Oil Trader didn't mean that oil prices would fall 70%.  He meant that the stock market would fall 70%, and that the reason for it falling is due to  margin trading and stock buybacks that are supposed to mysteriously end on Aug 1.  Although the high level of margin trading (in the stock market) could easily result in a 10%-20% correction should some catastrophic event could trigger a selloff, I highly doubt that putting an end to stock buybacks (an unlikely event in its own right) will be that trigger.  

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

Thanks Epic.  It seems I totally misunderstood Top Oil Trader's comment.

I steer clear of stock markets, which are even more bizarre than international oil price fluctuations.