Rally on Hold, if 69.5 don't break, 62.5 could be next.

(edited)

EW. Yes i have studied that a bit, I used to once sell their books, so I had all their books. But you see even today, which pro trader, smart chartists does not know elliot waves. In today volatile market knowing ew, is like a pro soccer player, knowing how to look at a soccer ball, Today it's a lot more complex. Also many who have used ew to predict the markets over the years fell flat on the faces. There is no, holy grail out there, or secret indicator. Again the Algos, (computerized trading systems) know ew backwards, plus a million other things. It like you bringing a stick to fight a knight in Armour. Can you outsmart the Algos? yes. Do people do that? Yes. But very few. 

Edited by Top Oil Trader
spellng errors

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(edited)

I love your outlook on markets Top Oil Trader.  I also agree, EW has not been effective with trading CL and has really only been "great" at retroactive counts after it has occurred. It does seem reacting to TA / charting has made the most sense but even that is not perfect.  Even with FA events, price will respond opposite of how one would expect.  

Perhaps markets are just a mix of both TA and FA which is why it is so hard to predict moves.  

 

Edited by oilfutures
s

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So far WTI has dropped 25 basis pt, not a big deal. However, another 50  basis point drop, and if stays there, could be a sign that the continuation of the selloff from 75. Some analyst from Chicago said today, that prices would need to stay above the 67.xx area for rally to not to break, and they should go above 69.70, for the uptrend to continue. These are the people who are experts in oil options. So they know all the levels. But this analyst in summary was bullish on Oil, saying 70s should be broken, and oil should move past 75 eventually. For now, he still could be right. But I would say, he will be surprised, as soon as WTI nears the low 68.xx. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

" Chicago said today, that prices would need to stay above the 67.xx area for rally to not to break, and they should go above 69.70, for the uptrend to continue"

How do you get this data?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Actually trading is perfect, but very few, have a clue. That is all I can say. Remember the wizard of charting, candles, ew, macd, etc., wrote many books, forget name, he had said buy market as it was going up, but just before a big crash. He also manged money, but had terrible returns, and he is now defunct. Many so called chart wizards had funds, and no longer. Also some other so called wizzard had a fund, but it got defunct. So very few indeed. But they don't talk much. Not when they get up there.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I find the majority of these gurus to all be charlatans.  They charge for their knowledge but rarely can they make any money on their own.  They are all funded by making money off other's hopes.  The only observation I have seen in markets is the masses are typically wrong and do the opposite.  E.g. Even on oilprice.com - as the bearish articles come out the prices goes up and vice versa. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As you can see the prices dropped back down about 80 basis points. Now there is more evidence that the 220 point runup has no legs.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

No there are some good people out there to name a few. Kovner, Jones, Simmons, but those people you'll never hear about unless you are the king of Spain, or the Prince of Monaco. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here is the reason for the rise. I had hoped someone would have pointed this out here, since as you know I'm not a fundamentalist, so i need to waste time looking for the news. The news just said the Sauds where not gonna flood the market with oil. I guess now you know how easy it is to manipulate the prices, just a simple statement from a top producer can bring up prices $2.50

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well like I said, if 69.5 holds, and for whatever reason it seems to be. Then well we could head back up.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

For now I have some profitable short positions, since it's very dangerous here, and one more weird statement from a pwerful player, could bring this up another $2. So maybe best to just wait on sidelines, until. Besides prices show, now we could go up since 69.5 have been breached. And could be breached again later.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(edited)

So went from having a big gain to a smaller gain, less than half. Got out. And just as I did the oil moved up another 30 pips. Don't want to bore you with the details.

Edited by Top Oil Trader
edited

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So rally no longer on hold, 69.5 has clearly been breached multiple times. It now looks like the 70 - 76 move  I mentioned last is back in play. The selloff was stopped by a simple statement from the Saudis that they wouldn't flood the market. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

69.5 is holding but very poorly. Had to close the longs at small profit on Friday, and reverse short. Like some big traders say, if you are in a position and it doesn't act right, get out, exactly what i did. But reversed short right at that price. So well see, it looks to me Oil will tank hard this week.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi JJ.  I wondered if you'd be around today.  If you'd be so kind, remind me what "tank hard" means exactly.  @ 2 bucks?  @ 5 bucks?  50 cents?  Thanks for your thoughts.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(edited)

BTW, I'm NOT trading futures and therefore my trades are much less susceptible to prices going against me by a few dollars for a week, or even a few weeks, so long as they eventually come back.   Since you understand the charts better than I do, I just thought I'd ask for your feel about the coming week or weeks.

Doh!  I guess a look at your topic header kinda explains what "tanks" means, doesn't it.  Never mind.

Edited by Dan Warnick

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

WTI Crude is in a clear uptrend with higher highs and higher lows. Technically the objective is still $78 to 80/bbl. Steep backwardation and high crack spreads are also supportive. The fly in the ointment is the high level of spec bulls that may require a correction to shake out the weak longs. A close below $65 may signal a deeper correction. Fundamentally, depleting global inventories and turbulent geopolitics also point to further upside although the Saudis and Russians could temporarily limit the upside. Bottom line, in my opinion we go higher after a correction.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites