"To Fight Russia, Europe's Regimes Risk Impoverishment & Recession" by Ryan McMaken

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

EXCERPTS - European politicians are eager to be seen as “doing something” to oppose the Russian regime following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.

Most European regimes have wisely concluded—Polish and Baltic recklessness notwithstanding—that provoking a military conflict with nuclear-armed Russia is not a good idea. So, “doing something” consists primarily of trying to punish Moscow by cutting Europeans off from much-needed Russian oil and gas.

To Fight Russia, Europe's Regimes Risk Impoverishment & Recession

by Tyler Durden

Thursday, Apr 21, 2022 - 01:00 AM

Authored by Ryan McMaken via The Mises Institute,

European politicians are eager to be seen as “doing something” to oppose the Russian regime following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.

Most European regimes have wisely concluded—Polish and Baltic recklessness notwithstanding—that provoking a military conflict with nuclear-armed Russia is not a good idea. So, “doing something” consists primarily of trying to punish Moscow by cutting Europeans off from much-needed Russian oil and gas.

https://mises.org/wire/fight-russia-europes-regimes-risk-impoverishment-and-recession-europe

The problem is this tactic doesn't do much to deter Russia in anything other than the short term because Russian oil can turn to numerous markets outside of Europe. Most of the world, after all, has declined to participate in the US and European embargoes and trade sanctions, opting for more measured approaches instead.

By limiting energy sources for Europeans, however, Europe's regimes are likely to succeed in pushing up the cost of living for Europeans while doing little to cut off Russia's economy from global markets.

Can Europe Totally Cut Itself Off?

For understandable reasons, most European regimes have been reluctant to completely cut themselves off from Russian oil and gas. This is because Europe has become increasingly dependent on Russian natural gas as Europe's regimes have increasingly committed themselves to unreliable "renewable" energy sources. This is especially the case in Germany—Europe's largest economy—which faces a "sharp recession" if it cuts off Russian gas. There has been much talk of heavy sanctions against Russia, but this has stopped short of a full-on ban on Russian oil and gas imports.

Nonetheless, the European Parliament last week began drafting a plan for a full embargo of Russian oil and gas.

Yet, even as pressure mounts for Europe's regimes to be seen as doing more to stymie Moscow, European politicians want to proceed slowly. This, however, only gives Moscow more time to adjust logistics to transfer oil exports to other parts of the world.

If Europe were to fully ban oil immediately, this would send oil prices soaring for Europe and others. According to analysts at JP Morgan:

A full and immediate embargo would displace 4 million barrels per day of Russian oil, sending Brent crude to $185 a barrel as such a ban would leave "neither room nor time to re-route [supplies] to China, India, or other potential substitute buyers," the investment bank said in a note. That would mark a 63% surge from Brent's close of $113.16 on Monday.

This could trigger recessions across Europe's economies, and policy makers know it. Hungary, for instance, has repeatedly opposed an embargo on Russian oil out of concerns for ordinary Hungarians, who already have a standard of living well below people in wealthier countries like Germany and France. Meanwhile, French policymakers have conveniently timed an embargo to occur after the French elections this year.

Even beyond the short term, oil woes for Europe would not necessarily end, because the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has already stated that it cannot pump enough oil to replace Russian oil.

In any case, Europe does not appear to be succeeding at convincing OPEC to do much to punish or isolate Russia in oil markets. The Saudi regime has only announced increased cooperation with Russia in recent months, and the Ukraine war does not appear to be an important topic for OPEC.

This isn't to say that none of this will hurt Moscow at all. Time will be necessary to modify Russian oil markets to serve other consumers outside Europe, and this will mean declining revenues, at least in the short term. Moreover, US financial sanctions make it more difficult for Russian merchants to do business globally.

In spite of the West's claim that it's fighting some kind of war for democracy and against authoritarianism, though, it looks like the biggest beneficiaries of growing European embargoes on Russian oil are some of the world's most authoritarian regimes. Beijing will happily accept oil and gas supplies no longer sold in the West, and possibly at a discount as potential markets for Russian oil shrink in number. Moreover, if oil prices are driven up by dislocations caused by European embargoes, this is likely to benefit at least some of the oil-fueled dictators among OPEC's members.

Meanwhile, ordinary Europeans are likely to find themselves paying much more for energy—and consequently for other goods and services as well. Recession risk is also growing in Europe.

The United States to the Rescue?

As is so often the case, Europe has looked to the United States to bail it out yet again. The Biden administration has stated that it can send US liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Europe and largely replace Russia in meeting Europe's energy needs. But it's not that simple. As David Blackmon has noted at Forbes:

While committing the US to help Germany and other European nations wean themselves off of Russian natural gas seems to be a noble goal, there is just one problem: The President apparently didn't talk [to] the US LNG industry about it before he made the agreement. Reading the quotes from executives at Tellurian in the New York Times article linked here, it is apparent that they were caught off-guard by the President's announcement. "I have no idea how they are going to do this …"

In the age of covid, federal politicians have no doubt become accustomed to conjuring whatever they want through the "miracle" of printing money. But in the real world, it's still necessary to produce oil and gas (and other commodities) through actual physical production. Also complicating matters is the fact that the oil and gas industries in the United States are still largely in private hands. This means Joe Biden can promise whatever he wants but the private sector will still have to do the work, and market incentives may not necessarily favor selling everything to Europe.

Not even money printing can make oil and gas magically appear on the other side of the Atlantic.

Ultimately, the frenzy of sanctions and embargoes pursued by "the West" may do little more than raise the cost of living for its own residents. Even worse are the side effects of these sanctions for poorer countries in Africa and Asia, many of which need Russian grain and Russian oil for their residents to live above subsistence levels.

These policies will make life more difficult for ordinary innocent people worldwide while failing to actually end the war in Ukraine. But that's a price wealthy men like Biden and Emmanuel Macron are apparently willing to pay.

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

I have said this repeatedly in the past.  I will say it again...

It is my contention that the overall plan is the devastation of Europe.  The first hints of this plan were plainly visible with Europe's Climate Change policies which have been championed and promoted by the World Economic Forum.  Per the World Economic Forum's "8 predictions for 2030":  "You will own nothing, and be happy."

The first step is to destroy Europe.  It is by design. That WILL OCCUR…Europe will be in shambles during the coming years.   The U.N. is a dynamic tool of the World Economic Forum.  This Ukraine-Russia crisis emphasized by the United States is designed to facilitate the destruction of Europe.

In the beginning, the U.S. will appear to benefit especially as its currency remains dominant with no threat as a result of trading partners such as Germany and Russia who might exchange mutual currencies.

The Ukraine-Russia crisis needs to occur now, prior to the destruction of European currencies when The Federal Reserve raises rates.  This crisis destroys any viable energy source within economic reason putting the population under tremendous financial hardship.

People should realize that The European Parliament is impotent.  Nation Members of EU Parliament have no real powers…look it up and understand their structure.  It was by design.   And also grasp that tied to the EURO currency there have been negative interest rates but also mandates that Pension Funds must own these type of bonds. (the imminent destruction of pension funds)   The insane Energy Policies of Europe have not been ordained by rational thinking, but by deceptive influence from powerful interests.

Anyone can put 2 + 2 together to forecast the coming decade.  What will happen to European currency and the economy when The Federal Reserve raises interest rates?  What will happen to prices when the European energy sector is in shambles?

The famous quote of the 4^th Industrial Revolution of the World Economic Forum for predictions of the year 2030 is  “You will own nothing and be happy”.

The global policies from the Covid-19 Pandemic were not about trying to help people’s health, but they were about deceptively installing control factors upon the populace.  The installed control factors are already there.

Eventually, there will be Central Bank currencies which will be tied to a person's Digital ID.  All their money will be tied to this Digital ID.  Just like ESG for corporations, the Digital IDs will have a "social score".  If an individual gets out of line from the official narrative, their score will go down.  Their money can be turned off, just like what happened in Canada recently with thousands of personal bank accounts locked.

There is much more to this agenda.  If you read the documents at the World Economic Forum, they tell you the plans.

[Meredith Poor + 894]

2 hours ago, Tom Nolan said:

Most European regimes have wisely concluded—Polish and Baltic recklessness notwithstanding—that provoking a military conflict with "nuclear-armed" Russia is not a good idea.

Not tested in 50 years.

60% of the conventional bombs dropped by Russians on the Ukraine have failed to explode.

Supposedly some 'nuclear warheads' are now lying on the bottom of the Black Sea.

Russia is exposed to two risks if they launch a nuclear attack:

1. One or more them goes off. Russia, or at least all Russian military and security assets, is(are) vaporized in the counterstrike.

2. None of them work. At that point, Russia is absolutely naked.

I'm expecting the reply to this to explain to me that I'm an idiot and I don't know anything. Why is this so predictable?

It's certainly looking at this point that Oilprice.com is a 'Rutube' or 'Rusgram'. Some clone of a Western hosted service, existing mostly to stick pins in Westerners.

Get a life.

[Boat + 1,323]

1 hour ago, Meredith Poor said:

Not tested in 50 years.

60% of the conventional bombs dropped by Russians on the Ukraine have failed to explode.

Supposedly some 'nuclear warheads' are now lying on the bottom of the Black Sea.

Russia is exposed to two risks if they launch a nuclear attack:

1. One or more them goes off. Russia, or at least all Russian military and security assets, is(are) vaporized in the counterstrike.

2. None of them work. At that point, Russia is absolutely naked.

I'm expecting the reply to this to explain to me that I'm an idiot and I don't know anything. Why is this so predictable?

It's certainly looking at this point that Oilprice.com is a 'Rutube' or 'Rusgram'. Some clone of a Western hosted service, existing mostly to stick pins in Westerners.

Get a life.

I’ve been saying this is a Russian site for years. The commenters rotate and few of them make any sense. Their anti American, anti China and pro Putin. The pro Putin is the tell. I mean even Hillary knew Putin was a mess. They also have this weird attraction to coal

I wonder if the military cathedral has a painting or stain glass for undead bombs. Dropped but yet intact. That’s like tank crews that ran away.  Could have been blown up but yet intact. 

 

Edited April 21, 2022 by Boat

[Boat + 1,323]

Russia used to be held not in a high regard but not as low as say Syria, N Korea or Iran. Now we can just say “peas in a pod”. I guess if Putin wants to nuke the enemy and climate freeze the world, what’s he waiting for. Is there a Netflix series he wants to finish first? Y’all can correct me on the numbers but so far less than 20 thousand Ukraine troops have died. The country has 60 million. Let’s say 20 million men that will fight. Seems like Russia could be sanctioned for a decade or longer. Ukraine men won’t quit as long as they get ammunition and weapon systems. Which the west will happily supply. Am I missing something here? 
Trumps propaganda machine does not rival Putins but even so both together can’t sell winning in Ukraine. 
So they say storage capacity is about full in Russia due to slow oil sales. Have they quit drilling yet? How long can they hold out before killing wells is the only option. 

[KeyboardWarrior + 527]

1 hour ago, Boat said:

Russia used to be held not in a high regard but not as low as say Syria, N Korea or Iran. Now we can just say “peas in a pod”. I guess if Putin wants to nuke the enemy and climate freeze the world, what’s he waiting for. Is there a Netflix series he wants to finish first? Y’all can correct me on the numbers but so far less than 20 thousand Ukraine troops have died. The country has 60 million. Let’s say 20 million men that will fight. Seems like Russia could be sanctioned for a decade or longer. Ukraine men won’t quit as long as they get ammunition and weapon systems. Which the west will happily supply. Am I missing something here? 
Trumps propaganda machine does not rival Putins but even so both together can’t sell winning in Ukraine. 
So they say storage capacity is about full in Russia due to slow oil sales. Have they quit drilling yet? How long can they hold out before killing wells is the only option. 

I think the last time Russia was held anywhere close to high regard was before the first World War. Communism is a hell of a system. 

[nsdp + 449]

12 hours ago, Meredith Poor said:

Not tested in 50 years.

60% of the conventional bombs dropped by Russians on the Ukraine have failed to explode.

Supposedly some 'nuclear warheads' are now lying on the bottom of the Black Sea.

Russia is exposed to two risks if they launch a nuclear attack:

1. One or more them goes off. Russia, or at least all Russian military and security assets, is(are) vaporized in the counterstrike.

2. None of them work. At that point, Russia is absolutely naked.

I'm expecting the reply to this to explain to me that I'm an idiot and I don't know anything. Why is this so predictable?

It's certainly looking at this point that Oilprice.com is a 'Rutube' or 'Rusgram'. Some clone of a Western hosted service, existing mostly to stick pins in Westerners.

Get a life.

Tom Nolan and Tyler Durden  are Putin's propaganda machine.  Your comments are spot on.

[Starschy + 211]

On 4/21/2022 at 5:37 PM, Meredith Poor said:

Not tested in 50 years.

60% of the conventional bombs dropped by Russians on the Ukraine have failed to explode.

Supposedly some 'nuclear warheads' are now lying on the bottom of the Black Sea.

Russia is exposed to two risks if they launch a nuclear attack:

1. One or more them goes off. Russia, or at least all Russian military and security assets, is(are) vaporized in the counterstrike.

2. None of them work. At that point, Russia is absolutely naked.

I'm expecting the reply to this to explain to me that I'm an idiot and I don't know anything. Why is this so predictable?

It's certainly looking at this point that Oilprice.com is a 'Rutube' or 'Rusgram'. Some clone of a Western hosted service, existing mostly to stick pins in Westerners.

Get a life.

We don't know that for sure. Therefore we make the assessment that this is not the case.

[Anisha fatima + 8]

Thanks for the knowledgeable thread!

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

In this Multi-Polar New World Order, this is what The World Bank says...

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/World-Bank-Sees-High-Energy-Prices-For-Years-After-Russias-War-In-Ukraine.html

World Bank Sees High Energy Prices For Years After Russia’s War In Ukraine

By Tsvetana Paraskova - Apr 26, 2022, 12:00 PM CDT

• World bank: Russian invasion of Ukraine will alter energy trade flows for years to come.
• Elevated commodity prices will worsen inflationary pressures globally.
• The World Bank expects crude prices to average $100 this year.

Join Our Community

The biggest energy shock since the 1970s is expected to keep oil and other energy prices elevated for years as the Russian invasion of Ukraine is changing energy trade flows and consumption and production, the World Bank said in its latest Commodity Markets Outlook report on Tuesday.

Prices of food commodities have also soared, and together with the high energy prices and shocks to international oil trade, those elevated commodity prices will worsen inflationary pressures globally, the World Bank said.  

The price of Brent Crude oil is expected to average $100 per barrel this year, which would be a 42-percent increase from 2021 and its highest annual level since 2013. Non-energy prices are set to rise by about 20 percent in 2022, with the largest increases in commodities where Russia or Ukraine are key exporters, according to the World Bank.

Brent Crude prices are expected to moderate to $92 a barrel in 2023, down from the expected 2022 average, but well above the five-year average of $60 a barrel. European natural gas prices are forecast to be twice as high in 2022 as they were in 2021, while coal prices are projected to be 80 percent higher, with both prices at all-time highs, the World Bank notes.

“The war is also leading to more costly patterns of trade that could result in longer-lasting inflation. It is expected to cause a major diversion of trade in energy,” the bank said.

“Higher commodity prices exacerbate already elevated inflationary pressures around the world,” noted Ayhan Kose, Director of the World Bank’s Prospects Group.

The bank sees high commodity prices disrupting or delaying the energy transition in the near term.

“Several countries have announced plans to increase production of fossil fuels. High metal prices are also driving up the cost of renewable energy, which depends on metals such as aluminum and battery-grade nickel,” the World Bank said.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

More Top Reads From Oilprice.com:

• EU In Talks With Alternative Suppliers As It Considers A Russian Oil Ban
• Libya May Reach Full Oil Production Within Days
• Can Lebanon Repair Its Failing Energy Sector?

 

 

[Eric Gagen + 713]

On 4/21/2022 at 10:37 AM, Meredith Poor said:

Not tested in 50 years.

60% of the conventional bombs dropped by Russians on the Ukraine have failed to explode.

Supposedly some 'nuclear warheads' are now lying on the bottom of the Black Sea.

Russia is exposed to two risks if they launch a nuclear attack:

1. One or more them goes off. Russia, or at least all Russian military and security assets, is(are) vaporized in the counterstrike.

2. None of them work. At that point, Russia is absolutely naked.

I'm expecting the reply to this to explain to me that I'm an idiot and I don't know anything. Why is this so predictable?

It's certainly looking at this point that Oilprice.com is a 'Rutube' or 'Rusgram'. Some clone of a Western hosted service, existing mostly to stick pins in Westerners.

Get a life.

Better yet, how exactly will nuclear weapons force the Europeans to buy oil and gas?  I mean you can't make them buy it without nuking them and if you nuke them, then they can't afford it (cause they just got nuked) or don't need it (cause they just got nuked) from a commercial business perspective trying to nuke your way to prosperity just can't work.  

[El Gato + 254]

On 4/21/2022 at 11:37 AM, Meredith Poor said:

Not tested in 50 years.

60% of the conventional bombs dropped by Russians on the Ukraine have failed to explode.

Supposedly some 'nuclear warheads' are now lying on the bottom of the Black Sea.

Russia is exposed to two risks if they launch a nuclear attack:

1. One or more them goes off. Russia, or at least all Russian military and security assets, is(are) vaporized in the counterstrike.

2. None of them work. At that point, Russia is absolutely naked.

I'm expecting the reply to this to explain to me that I'm an idiot and I don't know anything. Why is this so predictable?

It's certainly looking at this point that Oilprice.com is a 'Rutube' or 'Rusgram'. Some clone of a Western hosted service, existing mostly to stick pins in Westerners.

Get a life.

Actually #2 is a theory I've thought about also. Given the Russians poor maintenance habits,Their Shoddy handling of ammo stores( which may have led to the loss of one of their ships), and their less-than-thrilled conscripts. (Vacation on the sunny shores of the Black Sea they told us), I wondered also about the reliability of their nukes actually working.

The other theory I have is that once the nuclear genie is let out, who will retaliate likewise? Besides the US, Great Britain, France and the always player though you wouldn't know it Israel have weapons to send back Putins direction. That leads to the other question, who would have the stones to retaliate? Biden I doubt would.

[nsdp + 449]

23 hours ago, El Gato said:

Actually #2 is a theory I've thought about also. Given the Russians poor maintenance habits,Their Shoddy handling of ammo stores( which may have led to the loss of one of their ships), and their less-than-thrilled conscripts. (Vacation on the sunny shores of the Black Sea they told us), I wondered also about the reliability of their nukes actually working.

The other theory I have is that once the nuclear genie is let out, who will retaliate likewise? Besides the US, Great Britain, France and the always player though you wouldn't know it Israel have weapons to send back Putins direction. That leads to the other question, who would have the stones to retaliate? Biden I doubt would.

It would not take much to melt down the Russian  economy without destroying the Earth. Any one remember the consequences of Starfish Prime?  3H-bonds designed to maximize  the Electromagnetic Pulse over Russia  would push them back to the 1700's  with no water, no sewer,  no electricity, no trains, no radar. Back to horses and mules  You are talking about total economic collapse.   Putin would have to send runners to his ICBM crews to tell them to launch since all communications on his side of the world would be burned out. Look up the Carrington Event in 1859.  That is the reason Reagan's  Star Wars  was never built.

Edited April 28, 2022 by nsdp
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