Worry about Iraq. This is a proxy war of new proportions

[Kate Turlington + 44]

It's been a while since I've been on the forum, but nice to be back and see so many new .... faces. So here goes: I'm worried about Iraq. Iraq is one of the tinderboxes that you might dismiss because something's always going on and something is always threatening a crack in the shaky (at best) stability. But that's where we make mistakes. The protests this time are decidedly different, and surely given the nod from Tehran to some extent. But while the proxy war for influence in Iraq has been around since the invasion, it's always been subdued. A bit of this and that, but just enough to keep your foot in the door (except for Iran). The geopolitical climate has changed so dramatically so quickly, though, that this is becoming a real proxy war, and Iran is winning it. I see a major threat to oil here for the first time in a long time. Iran needs a stable Iraq because of its border, but slapped with new sanctions, it can also use Iraq to hit back at the US. And it will. 

 

[Epic + 390]

3 hours ago, Kate Turlington said:

it can also use Iraq to hit back at the US

Could you clarify how Iran can use Iraq to hit back at the US?  I am probably missing something, but at this point I don't think Iran can affect the US at all through Iraq.  Let's say Iran tried to destabilize Iraq, which would reduce oil production.  If Iran did this, it would actually help the US.  A large majority of Iraqi oil goes to places other than the US.  So, by driving the price of Iraqi oil higher, it would actually hit other countries harder than the US, and this would make it much harder for the EU and China to leverage against the US in the trade war.  On the other hand, if they try to help stabilize Iraq, then the oil would flow more smoothly, and in theory, help to reduce oil prices...which also helps the US economy by reducing input costs.  In either case, I don't foresee Iran capable of doing anything that could harm the US, except for selling weapons to terrorists, and they do that already.  

[Kate Turlington + 44]

This is about gaining influence in Iraq, in which Iran has the upper hand right now. What they're gunning, for starters, is an early exit of the US from Iraq, and their machinations in the creation of a new coalition government are working toward this end. They're trying to secure a pro-Iranian state.