Oil (WTI $69.30) headed for $80, in August.

8 hours ago, Top Oil Trader said:

The fb news dropped the market like a rock. The fb news could be the beg of the end for the market, give or take a couple more surprises. Twitter could be next, then Google, even Amazon could get their estimates cut soon, due to major competition from others, cutting into their business. If Amazon misses next time, get ready.

Top Oil Trader, FAANG all going down, hard. 

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Poke fun at me if you wish.... I'm not selling anything here.... but here is an article from April 20th..... calling out a hard crash of FAANG in the near to mid future.....

Get Ready for Some Redpilled Investing! How to Profit from the Coming Tech Collapse

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Yes certainly this wont be the first time, things that this happens. Lets remember when Amazon reached 400+ in the past it dropped all the way to $5, in the past. You will need Esignal to be able to graph that. Also remember that when Apple fell from it's grace it reached $1. Same with Sands resorts not an high tech co, but even that was almost bankrupt and was saved by its current owner, Sheldon Adelson. Things do have a way to surprise all the Tulip holders.

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So I don't like to show off, but notice I said before oil opened, its was either on Friday or Sunday, that WTI would first reach 68.xx not 67.xx then go to 69.5 then 70s. And start moving towards 70.5. Walla! Like I have always said, Oil is very predictable both when it ranges, and then just before it breaks out of a range, or when a trend reverses, either short term or long term.

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(edited)

Hi all. Rather new to trading (WTI) crude oil (currently at 70.04 as I write this) I was wondering, is right now a good time to buy oil? I've noticed a lot of news articles making some predictions (80$, 100$, 300$) and this forum has its prediction at 80$ in august. If that is the case, then what day in august do you all think it'll hit that rate? I am unsure as to how to begin to "predict" oil prices, and what determines them. Any help would be great. Thanks all.

Edited by Leon Knueppel-Nagy

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Leon, with Oil even if you are right in your trade, prices can slip the other way for 150 basis points, which means you could be down $1500 on just 1 position. wti is very volatile, if you are new, i would say be very careful. As you can see wti is now at 70, but first it hit about 68.5 so had you gone long at 70, you would have lost $1500 for each position, adn $15,000 for 10 position, and had you decided to close, that would have ended as a permanent loss. Leon, the best of the best well at least according the the news, the Oil God lost 30% on his hedge fund which was at 1.4 Bill,  just a couple of months, and in the end his trade was right, but  because it initially went against him, he closed out at a loss, and never recovered. Currently the best trader in oil was down 10% on his multi billion hedgefund this year. So don't listen to anyone, make your own decision, but be prepared for the worst.

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A global recession is about the only thing that will trigger a major correction in oil prices. Investment in big projects essentially dried up during the bust of 2014-2017. It's hard to play catch-up in this arena as the lag time between investment and production is almost four years. Shale is like a cat chasing its tail: it has been called the "retirement party for petroleum geologists and engineers." Sure, there's lots of tight oil, and technology is unlocking it better than ever, but go out to a pad where they're drilling a dozen wells from a single well and tell me that this frenzied endeavor is a sustainable process. The big fields in Saudi Arabia are becoming exhausted, and pumping all those trillions of seawater into the wells over the last few years in some sort of crazy water flood manner has produced "end of life" characteristics in a well: more salt, less crude, more contaminant minerals. We are in a VERY tight supply-demand market right now. The crazy Houthies are shooting missiles at VLCC's taking crude from SA through the Bab el-Mandeb. Just a matter of time until they sink one. That narrow gap--the major chokepoint in the only feasible waterway out of Saudi Arabia--is dangerous on a good day. For some reason, it was also chosen for a massive natural gas pipeline too. We will see crude prices of $80 for WTI before the end of the year, over $100 in 2019. UNLESS there is a major recession. What would trigger that? A trade war, of course. War is great for oil prices. Trade war isn't. But shy of a trade war, a major recession, the President can cajole Saudi Arabia all he wants, Tweet all he choses, tell Mr. Putin to put the pedal to the metal in pumping crude oil in Russia, and none of that will make two hoots to the supply-demand ratio that drives the price of oil. The president can even (foolishly) release vast strategic reserves from the underground caverns--that will be like putting a bandaid on a ruptured aorta; those "vast" reserves are minuscule compared to the monthly global thirst for oil. Not only that but in 2020 the new global maritime rules go into effect: shippers have to use a low-sulphur fuel. Right now, shipping consumes 4% of oil, and the sulphur content can be as high as 3.5%, but in 2020 that drops to 0.5%. Heavy, sour oil prices are going to drop. That's great for refiners, because they have to mix some heavy oil in with the light sweet that's coming out of the shale and removing the sulphur content just smells bad, it's not all that hard to do. But boy, that change is going to put an immediate 4% increase on the demand side of oil. Good oil, not the crap that comes from the Canadian oil sands. Great time to be long oil, if your nerves can stand the bumpy ride, because there are going to be tweets galore from the president, frenetic pumping by the Saudis and Russians, blusterous releases of "strategic" reserves (so much for strategy), and an overall public relations outcry about "gouging at the pump." But as I've said over and over, compared to the price of a loaf of bread, a restaurant meal, a dental visit, the price of oil has languished at staggeringly low levels. Heck, at these prices, it's one of the most underpriced commodities in the world!

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~ WHERE are the $20. bbl naysayers NOW?

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The short term movements is one issue. An important medium term influencer is of course Venezuela. As long as the military is compensated for the inflation Maduro is safe. If or when the contrary occurs, a new government's , (military or civil) priority will be to stabilise/increase production output. Means: A internationaly financed recapitalisation of the oil industry (and the country). 

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The straw is Iran Conflict, Middle East conflict, threats from either side. Some major event will happen (will it would have happened) way before common folks hear about it, in either case whatever that event is, it will already be reflected in the price. Which means people in the know will already  bring up the price as soon as they heard of the event and by then the price will have zoomed up.

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Looks like oil price stable around 60-70 average as better for economic in general.

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(edited)

Well there sure are lots of opinions out there targets from $40 on the low end to $300 on the high end.

I guess flip a coin and pick one.

Well actually you would need to have a twenty headed coin, since there really are lots of targets, anywhere from 40 until $300. You would think they could get together some time and have like an adult conversation and sort it out.

When there is no unison, chaos takes over! quote by Top Oil Trader.

 

Edited by Top Oil Trader
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(edited)

....videos from over a week ago...

Here's the newest development

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/jul/31/trump-offer-to-meet-iran-president-rouhani-dismissed-by-both-sides

Doesn't look like they'll be chatting any time soon.

If we start pushing to 71.50, then 73 in the near future. 75 will be big but your 80 might just happen... I'm more interested in Western Canadian Select. Got thrashed last week. Looking for WTI to pull it back up. 

Edited by Jullien Bagneris

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I certainly can see why so many analysts and traders believe WTI will range in 60s and 70s range, for a long time.

They are basing it on immediate data, on simple fluctuations, on their own experiences. However, friends understand charts is a lot deeper than gauging future prices on some simplistic event, or on some simplistic chart figures that most traders use. Truly seeing future prices from charts, is indeed an art that blind most throughout their trading career. For them looking at charts is like looking at an oncoming cars high beams.

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What is funny is two weeks ago as prices looked like they where collapsing and they said prices would now fall,  I said prices would range. Now as I have been saying oil will start breaking up, they are saying prices will range. Looks like their is a 2 week lag for them, until reality sinks in.

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When i quote a news story, it is something I found, could be recent, it   could be from 3 weeks ago, I don't really care about the news, it doesn't affect my outlook on the prices. But since most do, I add some links now and then.

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Prices now 68.5 all the way from 70.5, so oil is volatile, which is why lots of people get it wrong all the time. They go long at the top, when they think it is breaking out and vica versa. Oil will go up when it is ready. As long as 66 doesn't break, oil is still headed up.

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Oil is too hard to bet hard earned money on it going one way or the other.

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Well yes. LIke I said, easiest things to trade is stocks, in oil  it will fool you or most people 10 times before it makes up its mind. Agreed, and the Hedgefunds that trade it even now the best of the best, who won awards, for example this year he was down 10% at beginning of year. And some people lost 100s of millions, yes indeed, trading oil is not for beginners or even for people who hire the smartest analysts, as we see time and again. Many have to close up shop. I certainly don't disagree with your statement. Would be easier to trade baseball cards.

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wti should head up above 70 again in the beginning of August, and then sometime in August past 80, just like you need patience when drilling for oil, if you are looking for the trend in oil it takes skill and patience and being good at charts, if you are looking for up and down action, as you can see wti ranges 150 - 200 basis a day, if you understand trading, you can easily catch some up and down moves, almost daily, or if you are not that good, maybe part of it.

There is not 1 day that oil stays still, its like the running of the bull, on speed, and every time you enter, it is like having 3 bulls running right up of to you, the message here is, you better be running in the right direction, otherwise WTI will flatten you out like a bulldozer, toss you up like salad (whatever the bulldozer didnt flatten out), and flip up you like a pancake. Fundamentals could never tell you when it moves up or down, that would be looking looking up in the sky and predicting when a meteor would hit.

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Bulls are losing control. Let's see if they can hold on.

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as long as oil don't go below 66, I still see $80s in August. Right now wti is at 68.

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Up 18% in a month, looking unlikely to me. Thought it may have had a chance if it broke through 71.50 early this week, from last weeks push. But, the current news that guides oil, as well as API and EIA looks bearish for this week. I do think we'll find support at 65-66 with action between that support and the resistance at 74-75 this month...same old

 

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Well the month hasn't even begun, big players are just getting ready to place big bets. Certainly I could be wrong, but I highly doubt it.

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Yes, perhaps some big bets to come in around these level so it can push through 71-72 with ease. 

See what happens next. Appreciate your posts sir.

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