Oil (WTI $69.30) headed for $80, in August.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Jullien. your view, is in fact the mainstream view. Which is that for now, July August, September maybe longer,  we range in the 70s. Well so far even that view has been wrong since we have really been in the 60s, end of July into August. So I'm guessing those same Traders and analyst, will soon change the minds and say we will range in the 60s. Give them some time,

My view is that in fact we break out in August above 80s. Now if we reach say 76, you will see lots of analysts and experts come out with targets in the 80s, since by then they feel comfortable making those predictions.

Though we are now resting at 68, and have gone down so far in August, I maintain based on the charts that we don't break 66, and that eventually in August we break 80. Yet based on the news /  and fundamentals at this point there is no evidence to support my claim, however, charts speak louder than words (news). This is why I am now the lone wolf.

Edited August 2, 2018 by Top Oil Trader

[Jullien Bagneris + 18]

I certainly don't think we break 66, and I do think 80 is still plausible. Like you've always said oil is a tough one. Seem like now all that is moving the price is "potential" news. But if none of the news becomes a reality I think there is enough, fundamentally, to keep it pushing higher. If we can have a strong break through 71.50 with a few confident closes and continue to 74, 80 could most certainly happen. 

I'm not here to dig my feet in the mud. I'm sure you have much more experience than I do and as someone who owns mineral rights to a new play, I hope I'm wrong. 

I simply enjoy these conversations while sharing different perspectives. 

 

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Like I said very unlikely that 66 will be taken out. As Wti dropped to low levels they came in and gobbled it all up. This is how the big money is made, timing.

[Jullien Bagneris + 18]

They most certainly did. Coupled with Iran's "military exersices" in the Straight of Hormuz we could have some action. *licks chops*

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

and this time once they break 70.5 its all over

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Most of my time is really focused on currencies, but about 2 min a day i check up on WTI, all I check on is if 80 is still possible in August.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

I do have a couple of screens here, but if i keep wti on all day, i lose track of the currencies, which to me is a lot less manipulated than oil. And since im not looking at every tick on oil, but its only for the trend, i dont need to see every hickup in oil.

[Jullien Bagneris + 18]

Yep, I think if we break that resistance we could be off to 74 pretty quickly.

I've always been interested in forex just haven't explored it. Any good sites you could recommend for the ropes of trading?

Seems like next week a drop is immanent for API/EIA reports as well. Cushing is starting to become historically low on supply...

If only Canada could have implemented the pipelines we said we we're going to we'd be much better off. WCS at a 30 dollar discount, when Cushing is at the lowest levels since 2014-15 is pathetic. 

 

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Forex my friend, is where fortunes are lost by the best of the best. Take for example Forex Concepts a 14 Bill fund, closed down. Yes I would say I do go to lots of fx websites, I can't say anything bad, since there is no track records for those sites. What I would do if i was you, type in forex signals, see what these top people are saying and track them, then make your own decision. Understand that 95% of all stock traders lose money, in forex the people who lose are much higher. in Forex, I can honestly say I have yet to see anyone, who I like.They may have some lucky streaks, and then major drawdowns, or major losses, usually the major drawdowns turn into margin calls. There are some sites where you can watch forex traders trading big accounts, but don't expect them to last too long. I saw one person trading $30 Million in investors funds, in 1 month he was down to 0, took some bad trades averaged down many times, and blew the accounts.But I have been to maybe 50 sites, only to gather how they think, what they are looking at. Here are some sites that are large, but not that i recommend, fxcm, axi, lien and sclossberg, two ex employees of fxcm. Fx Empire , and there are 100s of others, in us, russia, greece, and many other countries.  They will talk about moving averages, trend lines, some oscilators and tell you what they think, some of them every day. For a novice they really sound like they know what they are talking about. Some of these people been doing it for 20 - 30 years. I always well in 85% of cases can tell you where the major pairs are going, on the weekly, daily, and smaller time trades. So on the hourly it may show that a pair is moving up, whereas on the daily it might show it in a down trend. However, there really aren't any currency hedge funds out there, since they 1] cant figure out the algos that trade against them, and 2] they can't figure out the government interventions that happens form time to time, and mess up their logic for holding a pair. But from what I read some big Forex Hedgefunds don't trade the pairs, but trade the bonds in those countries, for them to trade the actual pairs would be too risky. Here is an article about Fx Concepts, who i did speak to a couple of times, but never was able to meet with. I think they closed their doors couple of years ago. So in my experience very few pure currency traders, people who trade spot, are successful. There are lots who trade options, or binaries and I.m sure once in a while they make some money. Now Forex is very attractive to traders, since in stocks you get 2:1 margin, in Forex it could be 10:1, 50:1, 500:1. So loss and profits can be significant.  Had Jesse Livermore, who made 100 Mill at the 1929 stock crash been alive, he would have loved forex. But the actual big traders of currencies, are corporations, or countries. Say Saudi sits on 100 Mill in us $, and they want to change it to Euros to buy 100 Bugattis when they cost 1 mill, or whatever. So I have told you the stats on forex, anyone who I meet and they want to invest in forex, I tell them, they are better off in the slot machines.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

1 hour ago, Top Oil Trader said:

Forex my friend, is where fortunes are lost by the best of the best. Take for example Forex Concepts a 14 Bill fund, closed down. Yes I would say I do go to lots of fx websites, I can't say anything bad, since there is no track records for those sites. What I would do if i was you, type in forex signals, see what these top people are saying and track them, then make your own decision. Understand that 95% of all stock traders lose money, in forex the people who lose are much higher. in Forex, I can honestly say I have yet to see anyone, who I like.They may have some lucky streaks, and then major drawdowns, or major losses, usually the major drawdowns turn into margin calls. There are some sites where you can watch forex traders trading big accounts, but don't expect them to last too long. I saw one person trading $30 Million in investors funds, in 1 month he was down to 0, took some bad trades averaged down many times, and blew the accounts.But I have been to maybe 50 sites, only to gather how they think, what they are looking at. Here are some sites that are large, but not that i recommend, fxcm, axi, lien and sclossberg, two ex employees of fxcm. Fx Empire , and there are 100s of others, in us, russia, greece, and many other countries.  They will talk about moving averages, trend lines, some oscilators and tell you what they think, some of them every day. For a novice they really sound like they know what they are talking about. Some of these people been doing it for 20 - 30 years. I always well in 85% of cases can tell you where the major pairs are going, on the weekly, daily, and smaller time trades. So on the hourly it may show that a pair is moving up, whereas on the daily it might show it in a down trend. However, there really aren't any currency hedge funds out there, since they 1] cant figure out the algos that trade against them, and 2] they can't figure out the government interventions that happens form time to time, and mess up their logic for holding a pair. But from what I read some big Forex Hedgefunds don't trade the pairs, but trade the bonds in those countries, for them to trade the actual pairs would be too risky. Here is an article about Fx Concepts, who i did speak to a couple of times, but never was able to meet with. I think they closed their doors couple of years ago. So in my experience very few pure currency traders, people who trade spot, are successful. There are lots who trade options, or binaries and I.m sure once in a while they make some money. Now Forex is very attractive to traders, since in stocks you get 2:1 margin, in Forex it could be 10:1, 50:1, 500:1. So loss and profits can be significant.  Had Jesse Livermore, who made 100 Mill at the 1929 stock crash been alive, he would have loved forex. But the actual big traders of currencies, are corporations, or countries. Say Saudi sits on 100 Mill in us $, and they want to change it to Euros to buy 100 Bugattis when they cost 1 mill, or whatever. So I have told you the stats on forex, anyone who I meet and they want to invest in forex, I tell them, they are better off in the slot machines.

Thanks, once again, JJ.  You may be the only person on this site right now that actually talks about trading and its nuances based on the realities of the day.  I will note that you talk through the risks, the opportunities, and your opinion as to where the products you are tracking may or may not be going.  This is all good information, and a reality check for most of us that, if ignored, could seriously come back to bite us.  Much appreciated.  Please do continue to contribute.  I think you have a much bigger audience than may be apparent.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Well to me the markets is just a big game, it's a challenge. Set your soldiers up correctly, don't attack if its a trap, understand that most moves are traps, the market is mostly not worth trading, but simply wait for the kill. How? well filter out the price moves, they other side want you to trap you with.  If my odds where not 80%, I would't bother. So if I think shorting tesla is 50% chance, I move on. On August 2nd shorts lost 1.7 Billion in 1 day shorting tesla, even though Tesla reported more than 700 mill in losses. Obviously here is a clear example, where fundamentals, or using your brain was very detrimental. Yes there was a short at $380, but the people who shorted just before the earning when Tsla was 290 got whacked for $50. For me easiest things to trades, are simply indexes, forex, and some futures, oil, gold, bonds etc, the next move seems to be written all over the charts, if you just keep you mind quiet, let go of your ego a bit, and listen.

 

 

 

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

This is a general statement and not an answer to any particular post.

People who want to start trading I think should first study other traders. It's like if I want to play in the worldcup I should first study other worldcups and learn from other players.

So here are some recent plays from the top traders in the world I would suggest that had they known how to use charts properly they could have avoided such losses.

1] John Paulson loses $700+ Mill on gold.

2] LTCM losses 3 Billion, during 2008.

3] Tiger management closes a 22 Billion fund during 2000, due to losses.

4] Atticus closes a 20 Billion fund, due to losses.

5] The oil expert closes a 1.5 Bill oil fund, due to bad longs when oil was still dropping dropping like a rock.

Here we have groups, who hire the absolute smartest traders out there, with impeccable track records, and not one of them was able to help their respective funds not make those mistakes.

Then we have the largest currency fund John Taylor, who closes down his hedgefund of 14 Billion, due to some terrible calls.

Now besides this we have so called experts who go on tv, and are wrong for years. Famous traders who have been wrong for years are, well just look it up in google, but even though they are wrong year after year, they still come back on tv lots of times, to promote their outlandish views. Now even though they are wrong, none of thoese guys are hedgefunds, but just trade small positions, since most of their money comes from speaking fees.

Obviously none of these people would have a clue how charts work, because at any time that they speak, the chart don't speak the same language.

My point is, if the smartest of the smartest traders in the world have no clue, as a new trader, or even someone with experience, understand you can just become another statistic like the other 95%, I see and follow traders daily, and the smartest ones, are just sorry traders. Some traders that do have a clue, is Jones, Dalion, Simmons, Kovner. Buffet and some others, in the past it was livermore, joe kennedy and others.

 

Edited August 5, 2018 by Top Oil Trader

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

How the opposite side can always fool you, and why they need to. First of all they are not sociopaths, although it may seem like that to most who fail. Say the price is at 50, and they need to go long millions of contracts, if they put an order in for 10 million contract all the algos will front them, and they will maybe get in a 50.50 or 51, or 52. So that is no good. So what to do?

Put an order to short 100,000 contracts at 50. The algos will front them, price goes to 49.75, people see lots of volume, stops are taken out, clueless day traders want in and short at market bringing down prices to 49.5 a frenzy ensues, our customer now pics up the selloff, and gets filled between 49.25 and 50.25, averaging their entry cost at 50. Market soon moves to  53, and then 60 eow. This is how its done, and why most will always lose, just when they think they shorted at the right breakdown, and all they did, was simply followed their system, a system they wasted 3 weeks practicing and paid $3000 to learn. 

So in essence if a big player needs to get in, they can just get in, and they wont. They will need to move the market in the opposite direction, otherwise they simply wont get in, they never chase prices like retail traders. Their trades are planned well in advance sometimes weeks in advance, and then they would need to create a similar scenario until they get filled.

Not understanding how this works fully, will in most cases get you on the wrong side of a trade. The people who understand this the best are the brokers, who need to execute such large orders for a customer, say for the Fed, or a large corporation, or a large hedgefund. The 95% of the people who lose daily, or more, are simply needed as a stepping  stone, or as goofers, or more technically for liquidity for the big players to enter a trade. Now, nobody is forcing the 95%'s hand, but if they want to play, game on! This also explains why when floor traders was around, a floor trader would be there one day, and would vanish the next day. They saw an opportunity, that looked really good, they took the bait, went all in, and like magic disappeared. All the gains they made in the last 3 years, gone in 1 trade. And this will never change, in the markets there is a loser born every second, and they are easy to gobble up, by the pros. Sounds like a cruel world, but no one is forcing someone who has no clue, to risk their hard earned money. There are 1000s of teachers on there, every time I go to youtube, i see an add of some guru who will teach you their system for just a couple of grand.

If you like options here is someone who's been around for some time.

https://investitute.com/

 

 

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

How the opposite side can always fool you, and why they need to. First of all they are not sociopaths, although it may seem like that to most who fail. Say the price is at 50, and they need to go long millions of contracts, if they put an order in for 10 million contract all the algos will front them, and they will maybe get in a 50.50 or 51, or 52. So that is no good. So what to do?

Put an order to short 100,000 contracts at 50. The algos will front them, price goes to 49.75, people see lots of volume, stops are taken out, clueless day traders want in and short at market bringing down prices to 49.5 a frenzy ensues, our customer now pics up the selloff, and gets filled between 49.25 and 50.25, averaging their entry cost at 50. Market soon moves to  53, and then 60 eow. This is how its done, and why most will always lose, just when they think they shorted at the right breakdown, and all they did, was simply followed their system, a system they wasted 3 weeks practicing and paid $3000 to learn. 

So in essence if a big player needs to get in, they can just get in, and they wont. They will need to move the market in the opposite direction, otherwise they simply wont get in, they never chase prices like retail traders. Their trades are planned well in advance sometimes weeks in advance, and then they would need to create a similar scenario until they get filled.

Not understanding how this works fully, will in most cases get you on the wrong side of a trade. The people who understand this the best are the brokers, who need to execute such large orders for a customer, say for the Fed, or a large corporation, or a large hedgefund. The 95% of the people who lose daily, or more, are simply needed as a stepping  stone, or as goofers, or more technically for liquidity for the big players to enter a trade. Now, nobody is forcing the 95%'s hand, but if they want to play, game on! This also explains why when floor traders was around, a floor trader would be there one day, and would vanish the next day. They saw an opportunity, that looked really good, they took the bait, went all in, and like magic disappeared. All the gains they made in the last 3 years, gone in 1 trade. And this will never change, in the markets there is a loser born every second, and they are easy to gobble up, by the pros. Sounds like a cruel world, but no one is forcing someone who has no clue, to risk their hard earned money. The thing is these traders who may just taken a course by some guru, in Bangkok or Bali, spending at total of 10k for the course and the lodging, they think the guru explained everything to them, the one thing they don't understand is why someone would teach it they could make a lot more trading, or maybe running their own fund.

But in case you do want to take some courses that I think may be good

 

https://www.itpm.com/education/

 

 

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

In trading when you try to determine the exact top or bottom, this is only 1 celestial being ca do. However, as humans we can do the 2nd best thing, and that is to figure out if the instrument is in a trend and in what direction, and more or less when that happens. The fundamental news story which will get oil above a certain price, well like i said the price will have already moves up, way before someone pinpoints the move on a story.

And this explains a lot why some hedgefunds make 2% a year and why  784 hedgefunds lost money and closed their doors just in 2017.

The reason is quite simple, yes the people there making the big bucks, are not truck drivers, or uber drivers, or cooks, no they are prima donas from the top schools with iqs of close to infinity. However, their problem lies in the fact that when they make a decision on an instrument, or a stock its 80% fundamental, so that would mean analyzing numbers, watching the news, and 20% technical.  But as I show many times, I have to see a good technical trader, someone who does this for a living. So if those guys can't figure it out, why think that the prima donas can figure it out, and then they only base 20% of the decision on it. So 80% is based on fundamental, (contrived stories, made up stories, manipulated stories, real storeis), and then 20% is based on faulty technical analysis.

There you have it.

Man everytime i answer a simple question, instead of  giving a simple answer, i give a quadratic equation.