Billionaire political donor Charles Koch says Trump's Trade Moves May Trigger a U.S. Recession

[50 shades of black + 254]

Billionaire industrialist Charles Koch, who leads a powerful policy and political network, said he worries President Donald Trump’s actions on trade and tariffs put the booming U.S. economy at risk of recession. While saying it’s impossible to know for sure because the president’s trade policy remains fluid, Koch said the greater the level of trade restrictions, the greater the risk of severe economic fallout. “It depends on the degree,” he said in Colorado during a rare on-the-record meeting with reporters. “If it’s severe enough, it could.” Koch said any protectionism at any level is very detrimental. “Every nation that’s prospered is one that didn’t engage in trade wars,” he said. Trump has already imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum imports in the name of national security, as well as duties on certain Chinese products in response to allegations of intellectual property theft. That’s drawn retaliatory tariffs on soybeans and other U.S. goods in an escalating conflict, although Trump struck a truce with the European Union last week pending further negotiations.

[Pavel + 384]

There’s no honor among the oligarchs!

[damirUSBiH + 327]

Could trigger massive inflation and It doesn’t take an economist or billionaire to see that....

[franco + 96]

Only think Koch bros worry about is their bottom line.. they don't care about others and global interests

[ThunderBlade + 231]

They just love the money....

[jpZelabal + 63]

When even one of the Kochs can't be totally onboard with your trade policies, something is wrong... you know you're in trouble.

[rainman + 263]

Trade wars have also triggered great Depressions and World Wars.
 

[Petar + 76]

Looks it already is... U.S. is having to payoff the farmers..... who's next in line? 

[Qanoil + 116]

The "trade wars" are just Trump's Punch 'Em In The Face negotiating strategy.

Punch ‘Em In The Face! Do It Now, Do It Quick!

..... Trump’s Foreign Policy

Why mention this?

Because I just described Trump's foreign policy method.

Think of what he did when setting the stage for negotiations with Russia — a topic I covered previously.

Trump lined up all the major energy companies in Russia, picked the one with the most powerful oligarchs, and then punched it in the face.

And he did it with all the others standing there watching.

Now, you can bitch, moan, and squeal all you like that these be bullying tactics and “not very nice”. And I’ll just remind you that politicians routinely say “nice” things to one another, then go home, and launch missiles.

Ostensibly Trump is crazier than a bag of monkeys. But if you look at how he’s gone about things there is a clear strategy behind what he’s doing.

It’s certainly not conventional, which has the media up in arms. And even more infuriating to his foes, it’s got the ability to be quite effective, which probably explains the hysteric never-ending desperation to find something… anything on him and the Russians.

In any event, the strategy is what it is so we don’t need to be too surprised when after the initial punch the the face. That’s when negotiations actually start.

It’s also notably when markets expect the worst. After all, everyone’s screaming, “Hey, did you see that? He just punched them in the face!”

Which is probably an opportune time to go hunting for value.

[Jesse Man + 17]

The 

Edited August 6, 2018 by Jesse Man

[WaytoPeace + 62]

I agree With Jesse Man that the ballooning debt is a time bomb.  Trump’s policy of cutting taxes and increasing spending is based on the assumption that economic growth will add so much to overall revenue that it will more than make up the difference.  The problem is that with an aging population and with billions of folks around the world who are willing and increasingly able to work for less just to catch up a little in their standard of living, there is a limit to the rate at which we will sustainably be able to grow our economy.  This last quarter is likely to be an anomaly.  

More likely, our interest rates will continue to rise, we will experience more inflation despite the fact that the dollar will continue to strengthen, and there will be an even greater gap between the rich and what used to be the middle class.  The interest expense from the national debt will take up an increasingly large share of the budget resulting in cutbacks to other areas including our safety net for those who are least fortunate.  

While targeted tariffs can help selected industries at the expense of others, Trump’s policies are unfortunately overall counterproductive, making our country weaker and less capable of responding to the inevitable contraction.  

[gerkort + 2]

Trump knows of all the debts. Let the man doing his job. Trump is certainly on track.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

21 hours ago, jpZelabal said:

When even one of the Kochs can't be totally onboard with your trade policies, something is wrong... you know you're in trouble.

Not necessarily.  It could be that it's just not in the Koch's interest.  Do you believe the Koch's interests and yours align?  Just something to consider....

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

21 hours ago, 50 shades of black said:

Billionaire industrialist Charles Koch, who leads a powerful policy and political network, said he worries President Donald Trump’s actions on trade and tariffs put the booming U.S. economy at risk of recession.

Now, if you were Mr. Koch, and you know a recession is coming no matter what (he's a smart guy, right?), and you don't like Trump, wouldn't it be convenient if you were to say in passing that the recession (that you know is coming) is because of Trump, and not because of basic economic realities?  Again, just something to consider....

[Cowpoke + 70]

On 7/30/2018 at 6:41 AM, damirUSBiH said:

Could trigger massive inflation and It doesn’t take an economist or billionaire to see that....

Inflation, how? The system is designed for "MASS" production, remove demand percentage and prices DROP, not inflate.

Just look at the Cheese now sitting unsold. What do you think will happen to the price of cheese that may go unsold because of the tariffs?

They will at least stay stable and at best go even lower. Bacon is now finally coming down . Look at lean hog futures down big time:

 https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=LH&p=h1

That's not inflation me'boy, that's DEFLATION!!!

Edited July 31, 2018 by Cowpoke

[Cowpoke + 70]

On 7/30/2018 at 1:47 PM, Jesse Man said:

The U.S. economy will collapse, it's only a matter of time. The USA has 114 trillion in unfunded liabilities on top of 21.29 trillion in national debt.

Umm, do you actually understand how the modern monetary system actually functions? Me thinks not.

 

[Jesse Man + 17]

On ‎7‎/‎31‎/‎2018 at 6:26 PM, Cowpoke said:

Umm, do you actually understand how the modern monetary system actually functions? Me thinks not.

 

 

Edited August 2, 2018 by Jesse Man

[John Houbion + 31]

We import about 2.4 trillion in foreign goods, 90 % of which can probably be made or manufactured here.

Thanks

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

14 hours ago, Jesse Man said:

The U.S. dollar is going to collapse just like Venezuela's Bolivar just did. The U.S. dollar hasn't been backed by gold since 1971. The federal reserve a private bank controls the power to do whatever they want. http://www.deagel.com/country/forecast.aspx this website predicts the USA population will drop from 326 million to around 99 million by 2025. The reason for the drop in population is economic collapse. A lot of people will starve and a lot of people will migrate elsewhere.

 

Now this I've gotta see!  I mean to watch the death and migration of about 227 million people will be, um, magic!  And to think we will get to see it happen, within the next 6 years!  I'd better call my family right now, and I guess I'd better get some extra cots and sleeping bags because no doubt my newly deadbeat family will be knocking on my door over here looking for a place to sleep and some grub.  Thanks for the warning, Jesse!  BTW, do you get out much?  Oh yeah, you go out to get your meds and buy a new stack of tabloids, don't you?

[Epic + 390]

On 7/31/2018 at 6:31 PM, Cowpoke said:

They will at least stay stable and at best go even lower. Bacon is now finally coming down . Look at lean hog futures down big time:

 https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=LH&p=h1

That's not inflation me'boy, that's DEFLATION!!!

Wow, those prices are crashing.  

You are correct, in the short term there will be deflation.  The question is whether or not the crashing prices will put people out of business.  If enough people are put out of business, then there will be less production in the long term, which causes prices to rise, possibly even above the starting price-point; hence, inflation.  However, there are a lot of 'ifs' in the long term.  The only thing we know with certainty is that in the short term, we get lower prices and deflation.  

14 hours ago, Jesse Man said:

http://www.deagel.com/country/forecast.aspx this website predicts the USA population will drop from 326 million to around 99 million by 2025

Well, if it is on a website it must be true. 

 

On 7/31/2018 at 7:26 PM, Cowpoke said:

On 7/30/2018 at 1:47 PM, Jesse Man said:

The U.S. economy will collapse, it's only a matter of time. The USA has 114 trillion in unfunded liabilities on top of 21.29 trillion in national debt.

Umm, do you actually understand how the modern monetary system actually functions? Me thinks not.

The FED can just print more money to cover these liabilities.  It is working for Venezuela. 

...anyway, on a less sarcastic note, I do not believe that the US economy is in any danger of collapse, at least not in the short term.  The 114 trillion worries me only a little.  In fact, I heard the fiscal gap was actually closer to $220 trillion, not $114 trillion.  In either case, the fiscal gap is very hard to calculate because it is very hard to predict what will happen in the future.  Calculating the fiscal gap assumes that the legal code will not change, which is clearly a false assumption.  As the the gov't has a harder and harder time meeting its financial obligations, they will begin changing policy to make meeting those obligations easier.  Educating the average voter would go a long way to helping make these needed changes.  For instance, concerning these unfunded liabilities, the reason that 65 was originally set as the retirement age for social security was due to the fact that life expectancy was 63 in 1935.  Today, life expectancy in the US is 84, and social security can now begin at 63!  If the US was to update their social security laws to reflect this changing life expectancy (by setting the retirement age to 85), then most of these unfunded liabilities would disappear on their own.  The only number that really matters is the $21 trillion obligation, because if the US defaults on that number then it will destroy the value of the USD, and with it, the purchasing power of the average US citizen.  Even then, this would not result in Armageddon, but rather, just a lower standard of living for the average person who gets paid in USD.  Right now, the interest payments on that $21 trillion are around 7% of the total tax revenues, or around $300 billion per year.  There won't be any real problems until that number gets up to around $1 trillion.  In comparison, let's assume the US debt gets so bad that the government pays 35% of their tax revenues toward interest.  In that case, the US would be like Greece was back in the '90s.  Yes, Greece has been struggling with their finances since then, but they are still around, almost 30 years later, and they haven't even had a single zombie apocalypse, yet.  It seem that the largest cause of nation-failure is not debt, but socialistic reforms (ie: Soviet Union, Venezuela, East Germany, Cuba, etc).  So, it seems likely that the US will be fine as well, at least for a while, and as long as they steer clear of socialism and monopolies.  I am, however, worried about my yet-to be born grandchildren.  

Well, this was a longer post than I intended, but I wanted to ask if you could give us a quick review on how the modern monetary system functions, Cowpoke,  Thanks.

[Jesse Man + 17]

On ‎8‎/‎2‎/‎2018 at 12:16 AM, Dan Warnick said:

Now this I've gotta see!  I mean to watch the death and migration of about 227 million people will be, um, magic!  And to think we will get to see it happen, within the next 6 years!  I'd better call my family right now, and I guess I'd better get some extra cots and sleeping bags because no doubt my newly deadbeat family will be knocking on my door over here looking for a place to sleep and some grub.  Thanks for the warning, Jesse!  BTW, do you get out much?  Oh yeah, you go out to get your meds and buy a new stack of tabloids, don't you?

 

Edited August 6, 2018 by Jesse Man

[Mike Marcellus + 157]

3 hours ago, Jesse Man said:

Look at Venezuela for example, that can't happen here?

Correct, that won't happen here, in the U.S. 

Venezuala is in a tail spin for the same reason every socialist government ends. Greed.  People are greedy, me, you, and Nic Maduro.  But the level of greed by Nic Maduro has led him to steal from his fellow countrymen to the point of starvation.  Greed.  All those natural resources and he is so greedy he can't even think straight to make it last.  Greed.

We have an educated population, along with a superior checks and balance system that divides the power.  The second a U.S. President says he's going to nationalize any private corporation, the first thing that happens is people hire lawyers.  That's Lawyers with an "L", not Soldiers with an "S".  

Can't is an absolute kind of statement, so I'll settle for won't happen here.  

Greed is the problem, education is the solution. 

 

[Jesse Man + 17]

On ‎8‎/‎2‎/‎2018 at 1:33 PM, Mike Marcellus said:

Correct, that won't happen here, in the U.S. 

Venezuala is in a tail spin for the same reason every socialist government ends. Greed.  People are greedy, me, you, and Nic Maduro.  But the level of greed by Nic Maduro has led him to steal from his fellow countrymen to the point of starvation.  Greed.  All those natural resources and he is so greedy he can't even think straight to make it last.  Greed.

We have an educated population, along with a superior checks and balance system that divides the power.  The second a U.S. President says he's going to nationalize any private corporation, the first thing that happens is people hire lawyers.  That's Lawyers with an "L", not Soldiers with an "S".  

Can't is an absolute kind of statement, so I'll settle for won't happen here.  

Greed is the problem, education is the solution. 

 

 

Edited August 6, 2018 by Jesse Man