WTI @ 69.33 headed for $70s - $80s end of August

Oh by the way just this guy was going to start a bit  coin hedgefund the coins where at 20k, he predicted they would go to 70k, almost started the fund and coins started to go down, they went down to 6k later. Wow what luck he didnt start it, imagine the losses. This is how hedgefunds operate, they have some trades they want to do, collect lots of money, and some get out before they start, other who call themselves gd lose 30% in a couple of months. These guys look lke geniuses, they talk like geniuses, they look like a million bucks, but sometimes they face reality and all hell breaks lose. Dont get me wrong some  do make it like dalio and simmons, kovner, but very few make it big, then some who make it big, all of a sudden become small. Ok I will need to look at oil and see what is next for it. Since this is an oil forum, i need to pay a little attention to oil.

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So on oil (wti) its almost now at 69. It wil do some song and dance at that areas, peaking its head above before taking a small dive. But at some point this week, pick a day, 71 is the target. That will bring the bullls out the closet. And some story will come out to support the price move. This will be the first hurdle to get over, to get to my $80 price target some time in August. Could i be wrong? Yes, but it's highly unlikely.

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Fundamentally why the eur needs to go down. 

1] Interest on USD is 2 % could go up to 3%.

2] Interest on EUR is 0%, could go down to -5%.

3] Economy of US is on a roll.

4] Economy of EUR on a rollercoaster

( I try to keep it simple).

Europe just let in Millions of migrants, no jobs, some married to 4 women, tons of kids, more welfare less gdp. More unemployment, more terror attacks, almost daily. Acid attack in england, kidnapping people etc etc.

So is it maybe possible that eur could still tank?

So that is the fundamental view of the euro.

But regardless for some reason 99% of the day traders right now, well  starting at least 100 point ago, so last thursday  think the eur should be going up to 1.18. As well as many analysts, with tons of experience.  Could they all be in the twilight zone? We shall check back in about 2 hours, by then the euro will have moved in one direction quite some. 

 

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JJ

Good post that I've read with interest, prompted me to sign up and write a few words. As someone who is technically a retail trader with mixed success it was educational to say the least. I was professionally trained many moons ago but went into software and only last year went back into trading mainly due to crypto boom. I consider myself fairly calculative and emotion free when it comes to trading and I mainly take a contrarian view to general public sentiment (yes Im short on EUR). Forex, Commodities an Crypto, Now fast forward a few good months and with small starting fund I was putting trades in millions on crypto. I could have just called it a day and retired for the rest of my life very very comfortably but as they say Greed is Eternal. Long story short I'm now putting trades in hundreds and sometimes thousands. Got wiped out on crypto when every gut instinct told me I was right but in the heavy manipulated market I was very wrong and made a few stupid decisions to average the wrong way with a huge position.

The way I read your comments is basically - give up as a retail trader there is nothing you can do, the algos will wipe you out, the whales will eat you alive and spit a few bare bones of your account? What can one do to not follow the doomed crowd?

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well the eur decided it had enough going down for now, after all it did go down 200 basis in a couple of days, however, it needs to cross 1.16 before, it reverses up, so far it got some more to go. Which means  for now, it could still go down a lot more. If it does go past 1.16 then it could       go some 50 basis before another selloff. So this is just a dead cat bounce,there is no news to make the euro go up, except for the fact that it  was decimated last week, and drowned, and its just coming up for some air. 

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Oh boy, I wish i had spoken to you last year about cryptos when it reached 20k. That was when that hedgefund guy was going to open a crypto fund, and his prediction was it would hit 70. He was considered a real expert, but I guess even he starting losing big sums  quick, and changed his mind about opening a crypto fund. Yes I was watching a show once about a trader who was big then but today much bigger, how even back then he had to make the index of the market go one way to he could short while everyone else was buying. It's algos, and big money, that can just bulldoze others. I guess, but everything you read, is really all useless, since those books or courses, can't teach you when those big algos will move in. So even as a programmer to be a HFT (high frequency traders), just the setup, will cost you a lot. Well whatever setup you have can you compete with the HFTs, 100 mill datacenters? So yes be careful. Especially with cryptos.

Link to the Cryptos trader, who predicted cryptos would hit 70k, just before it started tanking, great timing.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9PIiRN5c_iQ

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21 minutes ago, drdanger said:

JJ

Good post that I've read with interest, prompted me to sign up and write a few words. As someone who is technically a retail trader with mixed success it was educational to say the least. I was professionally trained many moons ago but went into software and only last year went back into trading mainly due to crypto boom. I consider myself fairly calculative and emotion free when it comes to trading and I mainly take a contrarian view to general public sentiment (yes Im short on EUR). Forex, Commodities an Crypto, Now fast forward a few good months and with small starting fund I was putting trades in millions on crypto. I could have just called it a day and retired for the rest of my life very very comfortably but as they say Greed is Eternal. Long story short I'm now putting trades in hundreds and sometimes thousands. Got wiped out on crypto when every gut instinct told me I was right but in the heavy manipulated market I was very wrong and made a few stupid decisions to average the wrong way with a huge position.

The way I read your comments is basically - give up as a retail trader there is nothing you can do, the algos will wipe you out, the whales will eat you alive and spit a few bare bones of your account? What can one do to not follow the doomed crowd?

Thank you, drdanger.  Very helpful, and grounding, to have you tell your story.  A lesson to us all.

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(edited)

Doctor, just wanted to tell you. Right now is a really bad time to trade. Stock market is very uncertain now, you see 1.7 bill lost in recent tesla shorts, since the smart analysts predicted tesla wouldn't make their numbers, he didnt make it his losses where more thatn 700 mill, and what happened stock went up like $50. FB which everyone uses and has to use worldwide, dropped like a rock.

Algos, are all over just when you think it breaks up, you get stopped out, HFT traders who front run you, are all over, 784 smart hedgefunds closed their door just last year. Many times when hedgefunds dont make it, they dont blame themselves, but its either the Algos, or if they trade gold or currencies and they lose their shirt, they blame government intervention. One guy who started an oil hedgefund in 2017 closed his 1.5 bill with a 30% loss, just a couple of months later, he then said oil would range at 50 for a long time, shortly after oil went to 75, he would have broken even.  Smartest short focused stock hedgefund, in big trouble shorting tesla for some time.

I guess you would be better off trading basball cards.

Edited by Top Oil Trader

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Why many day trades lose is very simple. But I will just mention some reasons that most are not aware of. Most daytraders have to trade daily, its an addiction. Once your trading controls you, you may as go to sleep. They don't wait for outstanding risk reward setup, but trade even a reward of 5 to 1, instead of 1 to 5. Clueless about technicals.  Not aware how alogs and hft rule the trading. Plus many other reasons. Key for me is looking for 1 to 5, RRR, so a reward of 5 to 1 risk. If the  trade is 1 to 1 its a roll of the dice, now who sayS it ISeven is 1 to 1, who says you are even right, maybe what you are looking at is actually a 5 : 1 RRR.

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(edited)

Got wiped out fairly recently when against all odds crypto pumped like 2000 in a day or so and I had a very heavy short position.

I longed Tesla, I shorted FB, I shorted BTC when it was 20k , I'm long on Oil at the moment, in general I'd like to think I make good calls. I don't take a trade unless its at least 1 to 2, I put tight stop losses. 

The thing to put for others in perspective is that it only takes one bad trade/trying to fight against algos  and a terrible sequence of mistakes to wipe you out and spit you out without trousers. And you suddenly go from planning to own your own island to being happy with a $50 profit on your last trade.

I suppose another lesson is to use your profits while you have them to enhance your life, give away to good causes or whatever floats your boat, because tomorrow you might not have them.

Edited by drdanger
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(edited)

1 hour ago, Top Oil Trader said:

Oh boy, I wish i had spoken to you last year about cryptos when it reached 20k. That was when that hedgefund guy was going to open a crypto fund, and his prediction was it would hit 70. He was considered a real expert, but I guess even he starting losing big sums  quick, and changed his mind about opening a crypto fund. Yes I was watching a show once about a trader who was big then but today much bigger, how even back then he had to make the index of the market go one way to he could short while everyone else was buying. It's algos, and big money, that can just bulldoze others. I guess, but everything you read, is really all useless, since those books or courses, can't teach you when those big algos will move in. So even as a programmer to be a HFT (high frequency traders), just the setup, will cost you a lot. Well whatever setup you have can you compete with the HFTs, 100 mill datacenters? So yes be careful. Especially with cryptos.

Link to the Cryptos trader, who predicted cryptos would hit 70k, just before it started tanking, great timing.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9PIiRN5c_iQ

Hi JJ.  Not to take away from your skills or anything like that.  This is just a different way of looking at some of the hedge funds you give as examples:  What if?  What if some, not saying all, but some of those previously real smart guys met up with some other smart guys, and they hatched a plan to bring together a group of followers that they could then lead to the slaughter?  I mean, hey, the guy has a lot of people that want to follow him and basically pay a wad of cash to join his new hedge fund with the high hopes of getting 100 times returns if they just follow this guy.  No guarantees, but maybe 3500 people follow, pay their big buy in, fund their accounts with a lot of money and let him go.  The new hedge fund manager makes some trades, some good ones even that fattens up the hedge fund accounts, which draws in even more people, and then when the time is right he and his new smart friends, who it turns out are on the other side of these trades, make a few bad moves and "sorry folks, I made some big mistakes and we're going to have to close the fund".  Just sayin....If they're smart enough to rake in the dough in every other way on Wall Street, why wouldn't this scenario be playing out on a regular basis too?  Maybe I'm just being negative....

I thought I'd add:  I don't even know how a hedge fund works or whether or not any of what I just alluded to is remotely possible.  Just thinking out loud. :)

Edited by Dan Warnick

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3 hours ago, Dan Warnick said:

.If they're smart enough to rake in the dough in every other way on Wall Street, why wouldn't this scenario be playing out on a regular basis too?  Maybe I'm just being negative....

I thought I'd add:  I don't even know how a hedge fund works or whether or not any of what I just alluded to is remotely possible.  Just thinking out loud. :)

Unfortunately, Dan, your scenario is entirely doable and plausible, except of course it is totally criminal, and will put the participants in jail for a long stretch.  That presumes that somebody is actually watching, and is ready to arrest the perpetrators.  In the "old days,"  Wall Street actually had a Sheriff, that being Eliot Spitzer, the Attorney General of the State of New York.  To quote:

"After 90 million Americans lost $7 trillion in the stock market collapse, Spitzer deputized himself the Sheriff of Wall Street and began a crusade for retribution, restitution and reform. "  Spitzer cleaned the clock of the crooks of Wall Street.  When charged, their defense was,  "Everybody's doing it."  The big investment banks, including Merrill Lynch, paid billions in fines and restitution. (Does not seem to have helped much). 

Spitzer went on to become Governor.  Then, in yet another famous New York blow-up, he was found to be busy sleeping with prostitutes.  In the cause celebre, he hired Ashley Dupre who was a sex contractor with the Emperors' Club VIP, where he paid a fee of $4,500 to the Club for an hour of great sex with Ashley in a hotel in Washington, DC.  The deal involved the rental of two hotel rooms on different floors, and Ashley was sent down by train from NYC and into one room, the Governor showed up and booked into the other room, and when the halls were quiet, he slipped down to her room where she waited, appropriately undressed, for their quite anonymous sex. Her share of the fee was $1,000, the hourly rate. The bank turned him in on a suspicious-money transaction report (the payment to the Club) thinking it was money laundering, and the Feds found him out.  The Governor was forced to resign in disgrace, and Wall Street celebrated by going back to its evil, profoundly criminal ways. Here's a photo of Ashley in a bikini:  https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/1581627/Eliot-Spitzer-prostitute-was-22-year-old-singer.html

What this tells you is that, when all is said and done, Americans would rather see some sex event exposed for public humiliation than have criminals punished for stealing seven trillion dollars.  

 

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Wow. This is heavy, a great movie plot. Lots of bad players where already caught in the hedgefund world. The market shows no mercy, big fish   eat small fish. Some of the  best returns for years, where later discovered to be frauds, some where from lots of insider information. Today you need to understand, investors are not as dumb as they where during Charles Ponzi, who basically made back then 100 of millions from nothing. Even after he was caught and sent to prison, people sent him money to prison, to invest for them. Then  we had Madoff with the 65 Billion scam. And quite a few others. I guess there will always be someone who can outsmart the system. What is really amazing, I think every investor should see this movie, not because of investing. But for me after seeing it, I realized how many such people I had actually  met on a much smaller scale, people who until this day, get away with swindling 80 year old widows. Such people exists in the millions, simply turn your head around.But the hedgefund world has been more and more regulated, and any infractions today, is quickly dealt with.

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6 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

But the hedgefund world has been more and more regulated, and any infractions today, is quickly dealt with.

Not really.  It has just gotten far more sophisticated, as the criminals have learned to leave no fingerprints.  Government investigators are always trying to play catch-up, and they are hampered by lack of resources, plus the criminals on the Street are far smarter than the investigators and the cops. As the old saying goes:  "We know some things; we know some of what we don't know; but we don't know what we haven't figured out yet, because we don't even know what that is."  

Would you have kicked Ashley Dupre out of bed?  Hey, even those evangelical pastors down in Oklahoma and Louisiana, pounding about chastity from the pulpit,  would not have. Americans are obsessed with sex, especially other peoples' sex. The result: the rate for top-end escort girls in NYC is now at $10,000/ hour, up substantially from Eliot Spitzer's days.  That is far more important to Americans than somebody stealing money.  Those guys nobody even goes after, much less put in jail. 

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11 minutes ago, Jan van Eck said:

Would you have kicked Ashley Dupre out of bed?  Hey, even those evangelical pastors down in Oklahoma and Louisiana, pounding about chastity from the pulpit,  would not have. Americans are obsessed with sex, especially other peoples' sex. The result: the rate for top-end escort girls in NYC is now at $10,000/ hour, up substantially from Eliot Spitzer's days.  That is far more important to Americans than somebody stealing money.  Those guys nobody even goes after, much less put in jail.

Here where I live a person can go to one of about who knows how many cities and resort areas and have your pick of the crop, I'm talking ladies that would put dear Ashley to absolute shame, for about $30 bucks!  What the heck are these men thinking?  I get it with the stealing of money, but sex, or even the Harvey Weinstein types of the day?  Idiots.  Get in your private jet, or maybe stoop to First Class on commercial, come on over and rent a villa on the beach.  Get your kicks and be home by Monday morning ready for work.  I've never been to Las Vegas, but I'm guessing they could just go there as well.  Idiots.

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50 minutes ago, Jan van Eck said:

Unfortunately, Dan, your scenario is entirely doable and plausible, except of course it is totally criminal, and will put the participants in jail for a long stretch.  That presumes that somebody is actually watching, and is ready to arrest the perpetrators.  In the "old days,"  Wall Street actually had a Sheriff, that being Eliot Spitzer, the Attorney General of the State of New York.  To quote:

"After 90 million Americans lost $7 trillion in the stock market collapse, Spitzer deputized himself the Sheriff of Wall Street and began a crusade for retribution, restitution and reform. "  Spitzer cleaned the clock of the crooks of Wall Street.  When charged, their defense was,  "Everybody's doing it."  The big investment banks, including Merrill Lynch, paid billions in fines and restitution. (Does not seem to have helped much). 

I figured as much.

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38 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

Wow. This is heavy, a great movie plot. Lots of bad players where already caught in the hedgefund world. The market shows no mercy, big fish   eat small fish. Some of the  best returns for years, where later discovered to be frauds, some where from lots of insider information. Today you need to understand, investors are not as dumb as they where during Charles Ponzi, who basically made back then 100 of millions from nothing. Even after he was caught and sent to prison, people sent him money to prison, to invest for them. Then  we had Madoff with the 65 Billion scam. And quite a few others. I guess there will always be someone who can outsmart the system. What is really amazing, I think every investor should see this movie, not because of investing. But for me after seeing it, I realized how many such people I had actually  met on a much smaller scale, people who until this day, get away with swindling 80 year old widows. Such people exists in the millions, simply turn your head around.But the hedgefund world has been more and more regulated, and any infractions today, is quickly dealt with.

I don't know, JJ, but in most crimes only the sloppy ones get caught.  And let's face it, when Wall Streeters get caught, the company pays fines and life goes on.

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Jan I see you've done your research.  I didn't know it was that bad. $10k an hour, do you know how much the rate is for a quickie? Just kidding. I know there are lots of bad apples in the religions too, very sad, and I have met quite a few of those too.

By the way do you know if those escorts are believers?

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2 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

By the way do you know if those escorts are believers?

Only in money. 

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Jan you are the man, no question. You brought up some great great points.  I guess for people looking to invest again, those are sure important facts to consider.

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JJ so getting back on track, what's in your opinion single most important driver of oil prices? Because as you rightly pointed out the news are just there to fit the "bill"

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7 minutes ago, Dan Warnick said:

 Get in your private jet, or maybe stoop to First Class on commercial, come on over and rent a villa on the beach.  Get your kicks and be home by Monday morning ready for work.  I've never been to Las Vegas, but I'm guessing they could just go there as well.  Idiots.

Leaving the United States with the intent to engage in cash sex is a criminal felony, a Federal crime  (just the intent, long before you actually even get on the airplane), and will get you busted and sitting in jail in San Francisco, waiting for a bail hearing before a Federal Magistrate Judge.  In the USA of the Administrative State, what you think is already a crime.  You are not allowed to think, you are required to "be in compliance."  I remain surprised that, after having been an expat for some years, you have not appreciated this fundamental truth about America. 

Prostitution is a criminal offence in Las Vegas.  That can only be done in the rural Counties, and then only in designated brothels. If you invite a woman working in a brothel in say Winnemucca, Nevada to join you privately in your motel room instead of the brothel bed, you and she are committing a crime. Same act, same cash changing hands, bed across the street - now a criminal offence, and off to jail you go. Welcome to America.

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2 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

Jan you are the man, no question. You brought up some great great points.  I guess for people looking to invest again, those are sure important facts to consider.

JJ, you come back to the Street term "invest," but is anybody really "investing"?  Or is it all in reality a form of casino gambling?  I mean, let's get real here. 

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2 minutes ago, drdanger said:

JJ so getting back on track, what's in your opinion single most important driver of oil prices? Because as you rightly pointed out the news are just there to fit the "bill"

The single most important drivers are two:  greed, and fear. 

Oil prices have zero to do with ideas of supply, or refinery fires, or tanker attacks, or anything else.  Oil traders are gamblers who play against each other, and the operative criterion is whether the trader has out-guessed his counterparty on the move.  That's it. 

If they out-guess the other trader, they hire call girls.  If they lose, they get drunk. A fairly straight-forward industry.

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3 minutes ago, Jan van Eck said:

I remain surprised that, after having been an expat for some years, you have not appreciated this fundamental truth about America.

Uh oh.  Thankfully nobody ever asked me where I was going or what I planned to do when I got there, when leaving the U.S.  Of course, that was years ago.  Now I am married with children and live far away from those playgrounds.

Something you may not have realized is that I am and intend to remain a permanent expat, for many of the reasons you list.  However, I could and may one day write a book about all of the other reasons I choose to remain over here.  I love the U.S.A., it's a great place to visit and I have family there, but I will live out my days here with my immediate family, and when I die they can burn me at the local temple and place my ashes anywhere they wish. 😎

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