WTI @ 69.33 headed for $70s - $80s end of August

12 minutes ago, Jan van Eck said:

Leaving the United States with the intent to engage in cash sex is a criminal felony, a Federal crime  (just the intent, long before you actually even get on the airplane), and will get you busted and sitting in jail in San Francisco, waiting for a bail hearing before a Federal Magistrate Judge.  In the USA of the Administrative State, what you think is already a crime.  You are not allowed to think, you are required to "be in compliance."  I remain surprised that, after having been an expat for some years, you have not appreciated this fundamental truth about America. 

Prostitution is a criminal offence in Las Vegas.  That can only be done in the rural Counties, and then only in designated brothels. If you invite a woman working in a brothel in say Winnemucca, Nevada to join you privately in your motel room instead of the brothel bed, you and she are committing a crime. Same act, same cash changing hands, bed across the street - now a criminal offence, and off to jail you go. Welcome to America.

I have to agree with JJ here, Jan.  You are a wealth of information about the subject matter.  Although I'm sure you just heard these facts from a friend of a friend?

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1 minute ago, Dan Warnick said:

but I will live out my days here with my immediate family, and when I die they can burn me at the local temple and place my ashes anywhere they wish. 😎

You are starting to sound like Monsieur Rick in Casablanca: 

Colonel Strasser:   "You are going to die here."

Rick:   "What of it?  It's a great place to die."    

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(edited)

Jan I see you  are very passionate about this. I think its not legal in New York, but in some states they have legal chicken farms, although I don't think  take seeds, nectar or pollen for payments. But I do like your passion about this subject. t didn't know this was so prevalent in the investment community. A thought just came to mind, say one of those investors where to meet one of those ladies of the night, do you think the escorts would take an investment advice in lieu of payment? Maybe somone in New York could make an app, "ServicesForNothing".

Edited by Top Oil Trader

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4 minutes ago, Dan Warnick said:

I have to agree with JJ here, Jan.  You are a wealth of information about the subject matter.  Although I'm sure you just heard these facts from a friend of a friend?

One of the curses of being staggeringly good-looking is that I have been crippled by vast numbers of women shamelessly throwing themselves at me, for decades. They seem to like that totally Teutonic look of the Dutch.  I am actually profoundly conservative (my wife says I am hopelessly square) and I have to turn them down, I do try my very best to do that gently so as not to wound anyone's self-esteem.  I think the worst experience any woman can face is being refused her advances  (although these days they get so blatant it is stunning.  Amazing what goes on in America.)  Oh, well. 

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3 minutes ago, Jan van Eck said:

One of the curses of being staggeringly good-looking is that I have been crippled by vast numbers of women shamelessly throwing themselves at me, for decades. They seem to like that totally Teutonic look of the Dutch.  I am actually profoundly conservative (my wife says I am hopelessly square) and I have to turn them down, I do try my very best to do that gently so as not to wound anyone's self-esteem.  I think the worst experience any woman can face is being refused her advances  (although these days they get so blatant it is stunning.  Amazing what goes on in America.)  Oh, well. 

Humble and kind.  Well, you've got to do what you've got to do.

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I did live in Vegas for a while, with my luck I did meet the most beautiful girls there, but just for talk, we never went to 2nd base, you see no freebies in Vegas, they have a saying there, "No Cash no gas", I may have misspelled the last word,

Vegas is very beautiful, an amazing place, when you speak to the pros they are just regular people. By pros I mean the strippers. Some are nurses, even met one who had a non profit organization. I tried to work for her as a volunteer, but she didn't fall for it. Even the shows there are just beyond description.

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7 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

Jan I see you  are very passionate about this. I think its not legal in New York, but in some states they have legal chicken farms, although I don't think  take seeds, nectar or pollen for payments. But I do like your passion about this subject. t didn't know this was so prevalent in the investment community. I thought just came to mind, say one of those investors where to meet one of those ladies of the night, do you think the escorts would take an investment advice in lieu of payment? Maybe somone in New York could make an app, "ServicesForNothing".

Only in Nevada, and there only in the rural counties that have declined to pass local-ordnance prohibitions, as allowed under the Nevada Statutes. 

Brokers, dealers, "advsors," that crowd works on ego and hubris.  The phenomenon on the New York Bond Trader's floors is so notorious that they call those Traders the "B.S.D.'s"  which stand for "big swinging ___" [you figure it out].  And as usual, the male organs are where all the trouble starts. Because it is biological in origin, those programs of "firewalls" and "compliance officers" are all doomed to failure.  The BSD's are driven to figure out clever ways to circumvent all that, so that their personal BSD can have another expensive workout. 

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(edited)

Well the euro wasn't able to crash past 1.15 but it almost did, and was protected by some big players. You see when 1.15 breaks all hell breaks lose. Europe will be able to export more, beating the US. Lot's of money will be lost. Also some funds who are long euro, would be losing some big monies, so for now it was protected. But this is a temporary fix. Still this was a great trade from last week of 1.1750 to almost 1.16 a very nice move for the euro. Again this is wave 4-5.

Edited by Top Oil Trader
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Jan my passion is trading, I never think about those escorts. To me solving the trading puzzle, is worth a 1000 NYC escorts. I don't even smoke or drink, for me it is too boring.

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16 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

Jan my passion is trading, I never think about those escorts. To me solving the trading puzzle, is worth a 1000 NYC escorts. I don't even smoke or drink, for me it is too boring.

In my case, I don't have the money for that anyway, so the whole exercise is purely academic.  Oh, well. 

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The guy i was watching got out just in the nick of time. I guess he has this system, that he figured out to catch very small moves, but they seem to work for him all the time. Actually im quite impressed. Many times right after he gets out, the  prices goes the other way big.

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(edited)

so the previous forex trader i showed, he usually trades a very small part of volatiliy, when it ranges randomly, so no matter what trade he trades he can always clear 5 pips, since it ranges at that time about 15p up and dow., so notice in one of the trades he made someone $7, maybe, since that does not take into acct, fluctuation just before the close. So lets take another example,  This dude is trading 1 Mill, and in total he made 1200 pips. But now he is down 846 pips just in a couple of days. Why? he went long eur when it was going down, and kept averaging down. His guy has 180 investors, who soon will be left with pennies. Almost impossible for the eur to rally. This is a daily occurrence with day traders. In one day, out the next.

Edited by Top Oil Trader

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On 8/3/2018 at 10:35 AM, Top Oil Trader said:

When I look at the charts,  I filter out the noise, (greed, fear and uncertainty), this is hard to do, but someone has to do it.

Here are my ideas about the oil prices.

Prices as of this writing where 69.33, they will head to 68.xx later today.

Here is a secret that maybe lots of people who follow fundamentals including investors don't know or are not aware off in too much detail, and this also explains why so many investors, institutions and hedge funds get it wrong most of the time.

First of all many people ask me if i can help them trade oil.

Disclaimer: Futures is very risky, you could lose more than your investment.

The prices in most cases don't go up or down because of fundamentals, this of course doesn't make any sense to people who use logic to make their decisions, and this sounds like a conspiracy. But oil prices go up or down, and then a reason is placed on the the price move after the fact, and it could be any of many reasons. This is not to say that a fundamental reason should not be searched out whenever there is a price move. Now why do the oil futures fluctuate almost daily by $2 and sometimes $6 in a week. Fortunes are made and lost on such moves. Here are some of the reasons.

1] There are automatic sell and buy trades that can come in the oil market, at any time, simply from a program, here is one article from Fox, and of course there are books written about and degrees you can take to know how to do this.

2] Here is another article why floor traders disappeared

3] any many more.

So whenever there is some crazy move in the oil prices that no one can figure out, in most cases it is from some computer algorithm, that sometimes could even  create the appearance of a bear market or a bull market. This is why for most, to figure out the trend in anything today is next to impossible, since at anytime an order could come in, that would wipe out  most positions of current investors.

So having said that, to determine where prices can go with all this noise in the market, you need to understand those algos (programs) and when they might trigger for how long, again almost impossible unless you have a good understanding of those programs, and many companies don't use the same algos for the same time frames.

Therefore the targets I give here on top, are taking into the account the present and future fluctuations in the WTI prices, see no matter what these programs do, the prices moves they cause, are just illusions a temporary mirage, and cause a temporary move in prices, but nevertheless cause a permanent loss for the investors. What these programs do is two things they make the programmers very rich one of those people, is one of the richest in this world. But at the same time they provide liquidity for producers and companies who want to hedge. But this goes on daily. And is a source of lots of confusion for analysts, chartists,  investors and the news, who all constantly need to come up with a reason for the current move.

For people who are into Elliot Waves or Gann or other techniques, understand for every chart there are ten opinions out there, for each time frame.

 

The Oil Market at times respond according to World Events, Fear of Political Events and other unknown factors which might be illusion or real.

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On 8/3/2018 at 10:35 AM, Top Oil Trader said:

When I look at the charts,  I filter out the noise, (greed, fear and uncertainty), this is hard to do, but someone has to do it.

Here are my ideas about the oil prices.

Prices as of this writing where 69.33, they will head to 68.xx later today.

Here is a secret that maybe lots of people who follow fundamentals including investors don't know or are not aware off in too much detail, and this also explains why so many investors, institutions and hedge funds get it wrong most of the time.

First of all many people ask me if i can help them trade oil.

Disclaimer: Futures is very risky, you could lose more than your investment.

The prices in most cases don't go up or down because of fundamentals, this of course doesn't make any sense to people who use logic to make their decisions, and this sounds like a conspiracy. But oil prices go up or down, and then a reason is placed on the the price move after the fact, and it could be any of many reasons. This is not to say that a fundamental reason should not be searched out whenever there is a price move. Now why do the oil futures fluctuate almost daily by $2 and sometimes $6 in a week. Fortunes are made and lost on such moves. Here are some of the reasons.

1] There are automatic sell and buy trades that can come in the oil market, at any time, simply from a program, here is one article from Fox, and of course there are books written about and degrees you can take to know how to do this.

2] Here is another article why floor traders disappeared

3] any many more.

So whenever there is some crazy move in the oil prices that no one can figure out, in most cases it is from some computer algorithm, that sometimes could even  create the appearance of a bear market or a bull market. This is why for most, to figure out the trend in anything today is next to impossible, since at anytime an order could come in, that would wipe out  most positions of current investors.

So having said that, to determine where prices can go with all this noise in the market, you need to understand those algos (programs) and when they might trigger for how long, again almost impossible unless you have a good understanding of those programs, and many companies don't use the same algos for the same time frames.

Therefore the targets I give here on top, are taking into the account the present and future fluctuations in the WTI prices, see no matter what these programs do, the prices moves they cause, are just illusions a temporary mirage, and cause a temporary move in prices, but nevertheless cause a permanent loss for the investors. What these programs do is two things they make the programmers very rich one of those people, is one of the richest in this world. But at the same time they provide liquidity for producers and companies who want to hedge. But this goes on daily. And is a source of lots of confusion for analysts, chartists,  investors and the news, who all constantly need to come up with a reason for the current move.

For people who are into Elliot Waves or Gann or other techniques, understand for every chart there are ten opinions out there, for each time frame.

 

The Oil Market at times respond according to World Events, Fear of Political Events and other unknown factors which might be illusion or real.

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Not really. Having seen in detail how prices move, for a while, with analysis second to none, I don't mean to show off, but I have seen almost all charting strategies, have even bought one analysis study that cost me 4k.

I am of the belief, that prices move way before the news come out. If you remember couple of weeks ago when oil was 75 I said it would hit 60s. There was no news, all of a sudden, all of kinds of news came out showing an oil glut. Now too, prices should hit 71 this week, on what news? well see when it happens. But they way you think is the way hedgefunds think at least the macro ones, they based their 80% of their decisions, on news, and research and current events or the political landscape. So indeed lots of very big players think along your lines.

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A  clear example would be any disaster in history, you could see this type of event happening way before it did. The chart did skyrocket and only after the even make a 90% degree turn. 1987 crash, 1998, 2000, 2008, all had clear signs before the drop, same will happen on the next one commimg soon, to a screen near you.

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All a hedgefund has to do, is take a big short position on the sp futures when signs show up, and just sit back and relax as the bloodbath starts. Or last year all they had to do was take big shorts on cryptos, or just a while ago big longs on oil, or couple of months ago big shorts on the eur or the cable. These are like so obvious, and could have netted them some big profits. Now that oil is up 50 bucks from 25 to here, well a little less, its in range mode until it breaks up, so many investors are like confused, is it  gonna crash like ying said, or will go up like yang said.

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Just looked at WTI. It's range today was about 140 basis points. It is trying to go down, but it's very bad try at that. My charts, shows an idea that Wti should hit 71 laster this week. Short term it is now ending wave 2, and at 71  will start wave 3 to 4. Again elliot wave is very subjective, I am just translating what i see into ew, although i dont base price movements of ew.

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59 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

A  clear example would be any disaster in history, you could see this type of event happening way before it did. The chart did skyrocket and only after the even make a 90% degree turn. 1987 crash, 1998, 2000, 2008, all had clear signs before the drop, same will happen on the next one commimg soon, to a screen near you.

I do hope you will let us know if/when you see this happening in the future.

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well im not watching the stock market too much. but if i did and  spent time on it daily, i could figure it out. Im sure already certain big players are looking into it

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Well for the market to crash, it first need to be poked. Right now it has already been poked by fb, tesla and some others.

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I just spent like 2 minutes on the dow jones. I see a 1000 point drop very soon. If I spent some hours I could tell by what week, for now we;re very close to a 1000 point drop.

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8 hours ago, Dan Warnick said:

Here where I live a person can go to one of about who knows how many cities and resort areas and have your pick of the crop, I'm talking ladies that would put dear Ashley to absolute shame, for about $30 bucks!  What the heck are these men thinking?  I get it with the stealing of money, but sex, or even the Harvey Weinstein types of the day?  Idiots.  Get in your private jet, or maybe stoop to First Class on commercial, come on over and rent a villa on the beach.  Get your kicks and be home by Monday morning ready for work.  I've never been to Las Vegas, but I'm guessing they could just go there as well.  Idiots.

Where do you live, Dan? Time for a vacation. :)

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Looking at the euro now, I guess the most fun in the world. Now it is kind of moving up, and quite amazed that all the people who went long 200 pips ago, and in big red, are now adding positions hoping they will end up with a big windfall. However, I dont see this move up as any move of any significance to chance going long. And though I can't tell yet, but it looks like the eur will make new lows, Risk reward up  or down now is 1:1, so therefore why waste it. However, most dtraders look at even a high risk trade as worth it, and this is why 95% never make it. You  got to wait for the kill. And when it comes, take some risk. Until that time, go out have a beer, see a move, relax, play golf, cut your lawn. It is actually very simple, if you are not a trading addict.

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6 hours ago, BillKidd said:

Where do you live, Dan? Time for a vacation. :)

It's called The Land of Smiles, BillKidd.  Thailand.

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