WTI @ 69.33 headed for $70s - $80s end of August

8 hours ago, Top Oil Trader said:

I just spent like 2 minutes on the dow jones. I see a 1000 point drop very soon. If I spent some hours I could tell by what week, for now we;re very close to a 1000 point drop.

Thanks, JJ.  I am trying to develop my own long term strategy and your input is helpful.  I take a long term approach, but try to do so in such a way that I am able to adjust for shorter term deviations/developments at minimal cost or increased risk.  Has your look at the Dow picked your interest in following it more closely and possibly jumping in to some trades, on the Dow and possibly some of the other indexes?

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8 hours ago, Top Oil Trader said:

I just spent like 2 minutes on the dow jones. I see a 1000 point drop very soon. If I spent some hours I could tell by what week, for now we;re very close to a 1000 point drop.

Oh Please! Thats about as vague as saying there will be a full moon next month... and i didnt need to spend 2 mins of analysis to figure it out!

JJ likes to pontificate that he knows all as if he were some kind of prophet, yet he is just as elusive as the trading commentators he was poking fun at yesterday, offering no real substance or justification for his predictions and quickly forgets about his mistakes before disguising them and brushing them under the carpet- like the EUR/USD commentary he offered. When it didnt go as he predicted, he said it was because the big money didnt allow it to keep going south - which may (or may not) be true but the point is, theres no such thing as an honest prophet!

i like some of what you say JJ - i just find you inconsistent and a little supercilious. As another example, you made reference to the "guy" on Zulutrade who was about to drag  down hundreds of others with him on his risky EUR longs, just as so many hedgefunds before him... But with all your wisdom surely you understand that the "guy" you a referring to is actually not a person, but a trading algorythm or 'algo' as you like to put it? Perhaps it might be a place where amateur programmers can test their algorythms and measure their success in real time? occasionally if they produce something outstanding - then they can sell their tech to the big boys?

its clear from looking at the trading history of that 'guy', that their strategy is all about technical, very small movement day trades, high volume, low pip trades, so the broader bearish trend over a longer period which you were referring to for the EUR is actually irrelevant in the context for which you criticized their strategy. In fact, their strategy is actually working quite well its seems...for now at least :)

Be careful about making public predictions... fast way to loose credibility... even the most successful traders and funds still make plenty of bad calls, the only measure of success is that you win more than you loose :) 

 

 

 

 

 

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You are so right my friend. I don't really make predictions, just facts, that turn our true. Sometimes my targets are off, but they are always in the right direction.

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Why I can usually figure out what happens, more accurately than the chartists. So no I can't really go into that, this is very complex. How complex, well so complex that analysts, or chartists who are experts in charts, have no clue, generally, unless its really simple, to most. Yes I have made lots of money in trading, there where times I would be able to make xK while sitting across from someone while having coffee, who had no clue I was even trading, and I never told him, it was like reading an article. There where times why I could predict the up and down almost exactly a couple of days out. There where times when i predicted the crash months in advance.

But no to understand why prices move in day trading is the most difficult thing, and I don't know anyone who does. And these people are geniuses and they are in most cases wrong, because their brain can't think the way the market thinks. It is impossible for the human mind to do, unless you have completely mastered not charts, but more than that, the idiosyncrasies of the brain. Sounds heavy, but IF you master that, otherwise you will never have a clue, unless where you see some range and you trade it up and down, something people have figured out, and most traders are able to figure it out, until it goes out of whack and then they give it all back.

So it is a lot lot more than Elliott, gann stuff, moving averages, Carrillo, Fibonacci series, Fibonacci clusters, quant math, etc. This is something my brain figured out over the years, and there is no book out there that even has a clue about this. So if you give me any instrument I can pretty much tell you where it will trade this day, pretty accurately, even long term. But no this is impossible to teach, this is light years beyond charts, it is really analyzing the human brain, and why it jumps to certain conclusions, when it looks at fundamentals, or charts etc. And how to not fall for those misleading assumptions, subconsciously my brain figures these things out, and for me looking at a chart, I don't interpret it the way so called experts would. Sound heavy, maybe a little strange, but I guess my brains can usually figure out ahead of time where the alogs would be getting in, way before it happens. So if a chart show a great breakout opp, I can usually tell that oops it should go down here first, and then later break out, or it should move down here, for a while without going up later, or that the breakout wont happen today. Which means if I want to go long, to stay out. You might say when I look at the chart, I can usually see where movements where mirages, or where certain movements will just be that. So this is nothing I can teach, besides a strict analyst would think this is too esoteric to be a chart science. I guess I never had to answer this question, but this is a short answer to that. So if I had time, I would look at stocks, gas, indexes, bonds, more currencies, more futures etc. I would say i look at things from a completely different approach, than the one you find in many courses and books. But most of the day, I have other commitments.

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(edited)

i honestly have no idea how successful you are... but it can be proven by providing a screen shot of your trading history ofclosed positions for the last month or 2? good bad and ugly... your personal data does not have to be shown of course, so how about it? 1 great thing about zulutrade is the transparency... you cant hide there...

Edited by catch22

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Well as you can see, when WTI tries to break new highs it gets whacked by something or someone, this has been the trend for sometime now, which is why when people take the breakouts, they quickly learn this lesson. It is trying very hard to break 70 here. It will, but the quickly go down to 69xx area again. But later today or this week it will stay above 70, and then to the target of 71, which i mentioned I think last week. Have fun with oil, it certainly is having lots of fun with the traders and analysts, who have predicted 2 or 3 weeks ago it will be ranging for a while, which of course it hasn't. This reminds me of the guy that started a hedgefund with 1.5 bill, after oil dripped to 50 and he lost like 30%, he then predicted now oil will range, and then what happened oil went to 70s short time after. He could have stayed in business, some people give up just at the bottom, and go long just at the top. These things will never change, its part of human psychology, it is we where created either by gd, if you believe in gd, or by evolution, so from the monkey brain. I guess the later theory would explain why so many don't figure it out.

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For me to get into the dow, i need to spend a lot of time, lots of analysis, since i really dont look at the stocks or dj30 or spx, or nasdaq right now, would have to spend some time to figure out when the probably correction starts, however based on a quick glance like i mentioned short term i do see a 1000 pt drop in the dow.

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5 hours ago, catch22 said:

Oh Please! Thats about as vague as saying there will be a full moon next month... and i didnt need to spend 2 mins of analysis to figure it out!

JJ likes to pontificate that he knows all as if he were some kind of prophet, yet he is just as elusive as the trading commentators he was poking fun at yesterday, offering no real substance or justification for his predictions and quickly forgets about his mistakes before disguising them and brushing them under the carpet- like the EUR/USD commentary he offered. When it didnt go as he predicted, he said it was because the big money didnt allow it to keep going south - which may (or may not) be true but the point is, theres no such thing as an honest prophet!

i like some of what you say JJ - i just find you inconsistent and a little supercilious. As another example, you made reference to the "guy" on Zulutrade who was about to drag  down hundreds of others with him on his risky EUR longs, just as so many hedgefunds before him... But with all your wisdom surely you understand that the "guy" you a referring to is actually not a person, but a trading algorythm or 'algo' as you like to put it? Perhaps it might be a place where amateur programmers can test their algorythms and measure their success in real time? occasionally if they produce something outstanding - then they can sell their tech to the big boys?

its clear from looking at the trading history of that 'guy', that their strategy is all about technical, very small movement day trades, high volume, low pip trades, so the broader bearish trend over a longer period which you were referring to for the EUR is actually irrelevant in the context for which you criticized their strategy. In fact, their strategy is actually working quite well its seems...for now at least :)

Be careful about making public predictions... fast way to loose credibility... even the most successful traders and funds still make plenty of bad calls, the only measure of success is that you win more than you loose :) 

 

 

 

 

 

Wow, that is quite an attack out of left field.  In JJ's defense, I'd say he just knows his audience and doesn't spend much if any time giving in-depth technical breakdowns of what it is he is talking about.  That is most likely because he seems to realize it would go over most people's heads on this forum.  He also does not advocate anyone trying to replicate what he is doing or talking about; quite the opposite, in fact.  JJ's contribution to this forum, as far as I'm concerned, is bringing a perspective to the table that was previously missing, almost entirely.  To read about realities as he sees them, his experiences and, yes, his reading of the markets is most certainly a positive contribution indeed.  Again, IMHO.  Please do carry on, gentlemen.

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Yes i agree it is an attack. Simply look at the last crash and see how many predicted it, was it 1 person, against 3000 who said markets would continue up. Now why didnt the other 3000 figure it out. look at the 29 crash, read the papers just before and see what the big shots said, it would all go up, noone not one said it would go down, except for some people who shorted like J. Kennedy. It is indeed difficult, and certain things are hard to explain.

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My point was - anyone can say theres going to be a crash or correction- its a sure thing at some point. The real skill is picking precisely WHEN. The only people that get it right, are helped by a bit of luck. Then to go on and proclaim their genius after the fact is like saying nostradamus's real name was pinochio...

Oil at 69.8 at of now... will it break down at 70 once again, or will it keep going towards 75 again with the talking heads spruiking iran again this week?

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Oil Speculators Grip China Futures as Prices Post Mystery Gains

You gotta love it!

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Mystery? I guess mystery solved. Thanks Dan for all your replies. I will tell you though, that I am thinking of updating daily what will happen to oil prices for the day. After a while you get bored proving yourself right again and again.

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So i said earlier the wti would first peak above 70, and then break down. Now i dont watch every micro tick, but i think it did or almost broke it. And then shot down. Not watching the news at all, so not sure about the mystery Chinese news that Dan sent us, to me that sounds like Chinese. But if i have some time, will waste it on the news a bit.

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Yes just noticed oil did in fact peak just above 70 and then headed down, now who would have even guessed that?

Well anyways good luck out there, will have to try to shut up, and stop posting, lets see  how long i can keep that up.

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Article bout chinese mystery trading, that Dan mentioned. The Chinese oil September contract jumped limit up and was up 5% in August, but wti was little changed, a great time to be an arbitrator. So basically Chinese are scared about the Tariff situation, which i Mentioned will be the fundamental catalyst for the market correction. 

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So the reason WTI isn't crossing 70, is simple. Lots of hedgefunds bet a week or 2 ago that oil would not make, it. Lots of the protection or stop orders are sitting above 70, if they get taken out, it would mean big losses for some of these hedgefunds. I suspect their stops lie at 70.5 and 71.2 and therefore those stops need to be taken out, by a concerted effort, and they will, but once they get taken out, wti will move up higher. So sit back enjoy the show.

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(edited)

6 hours ago, Top Oil Trader said:

So the reason WTI isn't crossing 70, is simple. Lots of hedgefunds bet a week or 2 ago that oil would not make, it. Lots of the protection or stop orders are sitting above 70, if they get taken out, it would mean big losses for some of these hedgefunds. I suspect their stops lie at 70.5 and 71.2 and therefore those stops need to be taken out, by a concerted effort, and they will, but once they get taken out, wti will move up higher. So sit back enjoy the show.

See i do like some of what you say... sounds like a good opportunity for range trading... long the dips and look to take profits towards 70...

the downside risk doesnt seem to be immediately strong with all the rhetoric over iran looming,..

Another thing ive noticed over the last several days trading is the timing (time of day) of price movements. When the americans are sleeping the price has been steadily bought up with relatively small volumes by asia and the middle east also probably europe aswell, then when the americans wake up NY time, there is some strong selling by the big boys to bring it back down again... take a look at the charts over the last several days on a 15min time scale and see...i wonder if it will creep back up today? (whilst the americas sleep) 69.14 again now.

Edited by catch22

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This will happen until the oil breaks out. That is when all the traders who may have caught on to what you caught on to will get crushed, so eventually most range traders do get wiped out. But this is not just in oil, in many cases what happens is Asia is not different than US, its the same players different language. Asia is simply eating up the stops, getting people in UK to go long, and then whacking them again in US. So everyone gets a piece of the pie, but its the same players, all big banks and big brokers are connected.

But this happens in Forex too, in stocks we don't have this since hardly anyone will put in a big order for tesla in uk or asian market. So yes people who went long in UK, get cleaner out in US, and people in US who then took the short, get cleaned out in Asia. A vicious world, but all the bank and market maker/ broker employees need to eat too, and they need weak traders to feed them.

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but if you are trading with them - and not against them, how are you feeding them?

Ive done pretty well in the forex markets over the last year, and continue to do so... This includes some high volatility periods and Im here looking at oil as its a relatively quiet week for the currency pairs i trade... so far, im off to a good start in oil :)

Range trading doesnt have to be dangerous tho... i dont get what you referred to there? sure if it breaks out you will make losses but with appropriate stops in place the losses should be appropriately limited. Looking at the volatility in the oil price tho - i can see a challenge in setting appropriate stops that allow enough head room and still keep losses within reason. The latter is the primary reason im not jumping in head first, just taking little bites, need to feel out what works in this market.

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And so far we have an action replay from yesterday!!! Prices slowly creeping upwards, with very small volume whilst America sleeps... upto 69.30 now... around about 9am NY time is when the selling started yesterday, and the day before, and even the day before that :)

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Just looked at WTI which is @ 69.33.

If you remember yesterday I said when WTI was at 69.33 it would go above 70 for just a bit and then back down, this is exactly what happened. So today WTI is at 69.30 , and right now looks weak. So my idea is this, WTI will break above 70 again, and once it does its song and dance, it likes to do a soccer dribble now and then just to show off, it continues up the stretch towards 71. What the news story will be for that, will soon be known to mankind, on a screen near you.  By the same token the EURUSD is below 1.16 now, and will head up towards 1.17 later. I am not a prophet but this is how these things work. Good luck.

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Like I said I usually don't look at the stock market, but to me the stock market, oil, currencies each has their own way of moving up or down, you need to know what those factors are, (for some a lifetime of research and still continues). Anyways dow is now@  25636, and it looks like this month we have a mini correction of 2000 points. I am not saying it will not still trade above this price later. The dow is volatile to say the least.

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(edited)

Can traders make any money on 1 cent moves in oil? Say, it moves from 69.33 to 69.53, any profit there? That is a 20 cent move.

Moving from 69.33 to 71.00, that seems a big move, I would think a lot of money could be had there but I don't know anything about trading, just curious.

Edited by BillKidd

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(edited)

Bill, you are not alone, hardly anyone knows anything about trading, Billions lost every year, look at traders who have been around for a long time, and shorted TSLA, now TSLA may actually go up again, even though they had a loss of 700 mill, many been wiped out, and still as we speak are being wiped out. Smartest traders in the world shorted the dot com bubble and got wiped out. Smartest traders where long gold at 1800 and got wiped out, saying you don't know anything about trading, is more or less what even the best of the best prove by their trades. During 29 crash, smartest traders where long, what I mean by smartest, they where looked at as being the smartest, but the markets have ways of putting people back in their place. The reason lots of Billion $ hedge funds have lost on TSLA and will continue to do so is simple. Remember 80% of most hedgefunds are what? fundamentals. So if we look at the corp earnings of TSLA, the trained harvard analyst, would say its a screaming short. Well this would be the case if you asked any smart accountant or analyst. However, in stocks there are more things in play besides the books, people who recognize this can make fortunes going long, same thing happened with cryptos, which at one point where $35 and went to $20,000. And when they where 20,000 at that time a big hedgefund player predicted 70,000 and they went to 6000. So this is where confusion comes in, in many cases like in Buffets case, he predicts correctly what stocks to buy, like coke, geico, goldman etc, but he is a safe investor, not a get rich quick investor, there is a big difference. I always tell people even if you get 2 phds in mathematics from harvard, the stock market will always be smarter than you, look what happened to long term capital,  they lost 4.6 billion in less than 4 months, a fund run by the smartest investors back then.

Edited by Top Oil Trader

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