WTI @ 69.33 headed for $70s - $80s end of August

Hi,

My name is Joseph Sadiq and I have been in the oil sector as a consultant on IT, Cyber and IT/OT for almost 20 years.

This is a new venture for me and I hope to learn from you guys and also to contribute my little knowledge as we move forward.

Thanks for having me.

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welcome sadiq

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I think this target was successful

 

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14 minutes ago, Fantom said:

I think this target was successful

 

Yup fundemental analysis came through this week, 2.8 million crude oil drop according to EIA

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JJ Thanks 

 

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On 8/30/2018 at 2:17 AM, ATK said:

Yup fundemental analysis came through this week, 2.8 million crude oil drop according to EIA

No not as i see it - simply the USD fell. Oil price price rose accordingly to maintain same value regardless of what currency you use to buy it...

There has been a bit of a bear run on the USD for the last 2 weeks. We have returned to the same range we saw before the bull run on the USD prior to this. So - keep an eye on the USD or more importantly - the DXY (USD index) in addition to important news events surrounding oil if you wish to guage what its doing. Keep an eye on factors which affect the USD such as US interest rates, GDP, consumption etc etc.

The current bear run on the USD is approaching a key resistance level. If it breaks through it could keep going south and we will see oil go over $70. But more likely is we will see a reversal as i doubt the USD will continue to drop based on the fundamental good outlook on the US economy and forecast interest rate hikes in the near term. Thus we should see oil pulling back a little from current levels and heading back down to around the $66 area.

My 2c :)

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15 hours ago, catch22 said:

No not as i see it - simply the USD fell. Oil price price rose accordingly to maintain same value regardless of what currency you use to buy it...

There has been a bit of a bear run on the USD for the last 2 weeks. We have returned to the same range we saw before the bull run on the USD prior to this. So - keep an eye on the USD or more importantly - the DXY (USD index) in addition to important news events surrounding oil if you wish to guage what its doing. Keep an eye on factors which affect the USD such as US interest rates, GDP, consumption etc etc.

The current bear run on the USD is approaching a key resistance level. If it breaks through it could keep going south and we will see oil go over $70. But more likely is we will see a reversal as i doubt the USD will continue to drop based on the fundamental good outlook on the US economy and forecast interest rate hikes in the near term. Thus we should see oil pulling back a little from current levels and heading back down to around the $66 area.

My 2c :)

I mean yeah USD always has an impact but a 5.8 million draw the week prior and then another 2.8 million draw this week definitely had an impact on things and to only attribute it to one factor is why the majority of analyst are constantly wrong. Seriously go on tradingview and look at USOIL, 90% of them are wrong 

I would also like to say that JJ half way through the month said WTI would go to 62 a barrel.

 

So when you make a prediction with a range between $62 and $80 pretty hard to at least not be somewhat right with a range like that

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No one but no one can predict oil prices.  It's like polls and analysts, they are never right.  Of course, if you are a producer you can hedge your price, but it always or eventually bites you at the wellhead.

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9 minutes ago, Jo Mack said:

No one but no one can predict oil prices.  It's like polls and analysts, they are never right.  Of course, if you are a producer you can hedge your price, but it always or eventually bites you at the wellhead.

Completely agree, the most you can predict is maybe a week in advanced, but there are just too many short term factors to take into account to make a longterm prediction (now that doesn't mean you can't get a ball park idea, but not an exact value).

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by far my best retrace trade i have ever done, may keep until     tommorrow

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