WTI @ 69.33 headed for $70s - $80s end of August

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

2 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

So the move up to 68 was indeed weak, I can see this, since firstly I am not trading oil, but just looking at the charts when I get a chance. However to see clearly what goes on, I had to set up 5 charts, that gives me a clear intraday perspective. But oil (WTI) still looks weak, the week weak (sorry for pun) hasn't started yet, but soon people will wake up, and black oil will hit the fan. A big drop is soon imminent.

Hey JJ.  I am not trading oil either, but I do appreciate the commentary.  Several folks around here, myself included, have been expecting the drop, although I don't think any one us could predict the day to day moves.  Keep it up!

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Well the stock market right now 25214 is almost ready to break 25,000. So get ready.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

2 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

Well the stock market right now 25214 is almost ready to break 25,000. So get ready.

👍

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

What a drop in oil, just broke 66

[William Edwards + 708]

5 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

What a drop in oil, just broke 66

Take consolation, JJ. Guessing random numbers is quite a challenge.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

35 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

Well the stock market right now 25214 is almost ready to break 25,000. So get ready.

25,175 now.  Down 153.

[catch22 + 244]

4 hours ago, Top Oil Trader said:

What a drop in oil, just broke 66

And what a bounce! Straight back upto 67.4!

The oil producers and some hedge funds do not want oil under 66.5. Over the last week, this support level has been held despite being tested many times... im closing in on a strategy that looks promising to trade on oil...

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Well from where I am it looks like 66 can't hold. The fact that they want, only make a difference short term.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

William well its not a random number i pick out of a hat. What happens when a price drops it will usually bounce of a previous support price. So my targets are based on the trend, and if i believe trend breaks then the next bounce would be a support that happened previously. But if you are of the view that charts are really a "random walk", then indeed those targets are indeed random.  Same if a price breaks up it will usually break a previous high, unless it is in ranging mode.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Ok so like I said ioil will first go above 65, which it will do soon after the 8:30 open, it then will eventually this week proceed to 62.50, its natural habitat.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

On the dow like i mentioned before i spent hours on setting up the games on xbox,  we will first go above 25460 may even be higher like 255xx or so, and then down, so far the futures are up. It will have a very hard time going up further if even there. But 25460 seems most likely. The push down may be delayed a big, to later today or into thursday friday this week, and then with a continuation into next monday. I may be wrong on the exact days. 

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

The Dow.

 

On the dow now 25580, it doesnt look good. for it going down. To say that they would support it from going down, is like an understatement. The question is, would I go long here? And the answer is 100% no. Can it still drop? Yes. But I would say if they go up say 70 points further,  then all bets are off, since then it has to move up quite a lot more, to take out the short positions. This is how i read it. I would not go long here, it is a very bad long, here right now. Yes had you taken the reversal since 25,000 you would have taken the move, but did this 500 point reversal from 25,000 mean that it wont't go down? No.  So in summary, If i was trading the market and i had to enter here, I would not be buying, would i short right here? Yes with a 200 point stop. So short 25,580 stop 26,800, target 19,000. 

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

On WTI notice i said it would first go to 65.xx, and indeed, someone at Opec must be reading my posts.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

9 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

The Dow.

 

On the dow now 25580, it doesnt look good. for it going down. To say that they would support it from going down, is like an understatement. The question is, would I go long here? And the answer is 100% no. Can it still drop? Yes. But I would say if they go up say 70 points further,  then all bets are off, since then it has to move up quite a lot more, to take out the short positions. This is how i read it. I would not go long here, it is a very bad long, here right now. Yes had you taken the reversal since 25,000 you would have taken the move, but did this 500 point reversal from 25,000 mean that it wont't go down? No.  So in summary, If i was trading the market and i had to enter here, I would not be buying, would i short right here? Yes with a 200 point stop. So short 25,580 stop 26,800, target 19,000. 

Just an observation: at exactly the same times that the S&P peaked at 2850 (twice) the Dow hit its highs (both times).  Since the last time the S&P hit 2850 both it and the Dow have started a slow decline.  Does this mean anything to you?

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

I have been watching the dow just now, but just the big chart not really the low time frame chart, to see the double top, will need to do some more CSI work.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Yes it may have hit the top twice, thats ok, my charts my calcs, simply tells me it is not a long, and i can still fall. And if it falls, there will be lots of blood, since people today have been sucked into the market big time, during this reversal, which to me yes it is 580 points, but to me its smoke and mirrors, a dog and pony show, a class card trick, which I would say 95% of traders fell for today. Which the way I look at it, the move down below 25,000 should start happening by tomorrow, Friday or Monday. I am not saying this, to not go back on what I said that 25,000 will be broken, so im not trying to save my view, i did say dow would make a move up, I forgot if i said 100 points or 150 from yesterday, but its a rough estimate, and indeed someone up high is reading my posts, I don't mind, there is no charge.  But this upmove powerfull as it was, it was expected the way according to me. And as I said I never look at the dow, especially since it has been just in 1 direction, so to predict the absolute top, which i said was 25636, is ineed very hard to, but.... If i don't do it who will, wink.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

That's ok.  You said it may go to 25,5xx and the S&P would go to 2450.  The dow made it to 25,5xx first and hovered and rose slowly from there, but stayed in the 25,5xx's.  During that same time the S&P was making a slow crawl up to 2450, and when it hit the second time, both the Dow and the S&P started declining.  I was sitting here saying: damn boy, you're hitting this pretty much spot on.  That's all I was getting at with my question, that and of course asking whether or not you thought one or both of them were peaking at those 2 times.  If those numbers hold as the highs for the day, it seems to follow that they will both fall, and then we'll probably see some headlines to justify the overall drop.  Just doodling.....

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Euro for you forex addicts, 1.1367 its going down, it has had its moment in the spot light. Of course it's been going down for while, but yesterday we had a 100 point counter move, which took out lots of shorts.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Shorted the dow at 25,625. Very hard to give up such a trade. Even if it turns out the move is only 200 points that is still a nice move, but of course this is not why i entered.

[catch22 + 244]

On 8/17/2018 at 6:20 PM, Top Oil Trader said:

Shorted the dow at 25,625. Very hard to give up such a trade. Even if it turns out the move is only 200 points that is still a nice move, but of course this is not why i entered.

Did you stay in or stop out when it headed upto 25870?

Its finally looking like falling now - perhaps you were a little too soon?

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

ah i said that somewhere there would be a top, not the final top before the major crash, but it would be a top.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

I see it touched 25897, so it did   go up as u see 20 point above where the I said the first top  would be. And then dropped 200 points. Looks like that target was hit earlier in US session, and then dropped the close 200 points to 25,670

[catch22 + 244]

1 hour ago, Top Oil Trader said:

I see it touched 25897, so it did   go up as u see 20 point above where the I said the first top  would be. And then dropped 200 points. Looks like that target was hit earlier in US session, and then dropped the close 200 points to 25,670

And you said you shorted it... so how did you go?

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

I dont trade the DJ30, no. I have in the past. Focused mostly on currencies.

[ATK + 355]

This is the more likely oil prediction to occur