Is Europe heading for winter of discontent with extensive gas shortages?

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

50 minutes ago, RichieRich216 said:

So your opinion is jaded by the fact you are from a Communist country!
 

If we could take it from the United States to outside Of Japan, we could have done it in Europe.

Japan is comparatively rather small. It is plainly obvious that you would've attacked USSR with nukes and genocided everyone the earliest moment you thought you could get away with it. I am still taken aback what bloodthirsty, soulless monsters your leadership really were. Still likely are. USSR, on the other hand, just wanted to survive. It was always the one on the defense. Quite the opposite of how your Goebbels propaganda renders it now. I used to drink the American Kool Aid for a while myself, but I grew out of it. It is plainly obvious we've been had. So, let's replay, shall we? We have lost no Cold War, we quit it. Your turn now.

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

On 8/9/2022 at 6:44 PM, Wombat One said:

Have you never heard of "creative destruction"? That is precisely what keeps Western economies streets ahead of Communist economies.

Who would that be, the Chinese? You don't appear to be ahead of them, quite on the contrary.

Australia specifically is a mineral extraction economy. To a much higher degree than Russia, which gets all the flak as the proverbial gas station masquerading as a country. How creative is that?

Edited August 11, 2022 by Andrei Moutchkine

[NickW + 2,714]

14 hours ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

All of it would be over contested airspace, so no, I don't think you could. Look up some of US' own assessments on the number of bombers that would take. I went to a Soviet high school, which didn't cost me a cent (or kopeck)

The B29 (or the Avro Lincoln*) could hit Moscow, Leningrad, Kiev, Minsk from allied territory. 

If you want to nuke one of those cities send hundreds of bombers armed with conventionals (light load and plenty of AA ammo) and a few with nukes. Chances are the city gets wiped off the map. 

Leningrad easiest because that route can have fighter escort all the way from allied naval assets. 

*Avro Lincoln even greater range than the B29. 

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

11 minutes ago, NickW said:

The B29 (or the Avro Lincoln*) could hit Moscow, Leningrad, Kiev, Minsk from allied territory. 

If you want to nuke one of those cities send hundreds of bombers armed with conventionals (light load and plenty of AA ammo) and a few with nukes. Chances are the city gets wiped off the map. 

Leningrad easiest because that route can have fighter escort all the way from allied naval assets. 

*Avro Lincoln even greater range than the B29. 

Hindsight is 100% Winnie Churchill had all kinds of clever plans like that, but it was a hard sell, because people were tired of the war. See

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Unthinkable

[RichieRich216 + 454]

14 hours ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

Japan is comparatively rather small. It is plainly obvious that you would've attacked USSR with nukes and genocided everyone the earliest moment you thought you could get away with it. I am still taken aback what bloodthirsty, soulless monsters your leadership really were. Still likely are. USSR, on the other hand, just wanted to survive. It was always the one on the defense. Quite the opposite of how your Goebbels propaganda renders it now. I used to drink the American Kool Aid for a while myself, but I grew out of it. It is plainly obvious we've been had. So, let's replay, shall we? We have lost no Cold War, we quit it. Your turn now.

You're an indoctrinated, weak-minded people who don't think for themselves!

Your entire life is for the “ Greater Good” no matter how badly you live and work.

It's quite funny that some of your advanced weapons being used in Ukraine have technology from 28 FREE COUNTRIES and not Russian built. 

Talk about Kool-Aid; we are an open society and don't get arrested for speaking out like what is happening to anyone who speaks against Putin.

Your and Chinese forces are built on stealing the design and Intellectual Property of the United States.
 

Look at what is happening in Russia with the sanctions; you nationalized foreign companies and property, and the people are beginning to see what the old USSR was like.
 

Stop kissing dictator's ass’s and take your country for the people and not for the dictatorship ruling class or the Russian Organized Crime criminals
 

 

[specinho + 467]

On 8/10/2022 at 12:57 PM, Wombat One said:

 What on Earth can anyone gain from a first strike when everyone has the capacity of a second strike? What the hell have they been teaching you in the FSB? First strike was a doctrine of the Goddam 50's??????????? What rock have you been living under? Nuclear winter is all about the effect on the troposphere? First strike or second strike, it makes no difference you dope? Even a first strike is suicide, regardless of whether or not there is a second strike. Why do you think the US policymakers are talking about reducing their nuclear arsenal unilaterally if necessary? They want to modernise their delivery systems but get their total number of warheads below 2000 as soon as possible but Putin won't reciprocate. I thought you were a physicist like me that just had to study computer science in order to handle the instruments? Damn. Am glad you cleared that up. I never could understand the Russian paranoia until now. You simply are not even informed. Not on Physics, not on Economics, not on History? Sometimes I forget that even the best educated Russians have little education at all. You are so intelligent, yet so ill-informed. That is a tragedy. Do you even know what the mini black holes that CERN produce actually consist of? And why they want to produce them?

nuclear might be a necessity to end war against brutal force quickly....

A news clip broadcasted few days ago recalled the damage done by nuclear bomb during WWII in Japan. About 400, 000 people killed, which was half of the total population of the location(s), with the rest suffer consequences of radiation... Military base was destroyed and the war ended in ONE day.

Judging from the destructive power, it might be the center of WW III.........

 

Testing water, if the ultimate defence would be used, is silly..........

On 8/10/2022 at 11:06 PM, Jay McKinsey said:

The place to nuke with our one bomb at the end of the war would have been Baku. That would have taken out Soviet oil production.

 

 

Edited August 11, 2022 by specinho

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

5 hours ago, RichieRich216 said:

You're an indoctrinated, weak-minded people who don't think for themselves!

Your entire life is for the “ Greater Good” no matter how badly you live and work.

It's quite funny that some of your advanced weapons being used in Ukraine have technology from 28 FREE COUNTRIES and not Russian built. 

Talk about Kool-Aid; we are an open society and don't get arrested for speaking out like what is happening to anyone who speaks against Putin.

Your and Chinese forces are built on stealing the design and Intellectual Property of the United States.
 

Look at what is happening in Russia with the sanctions; you nationalized foreign companies and property, and the people are beginning to see what the old USSR was like.
 

Stop kissing dictator's ass’s and take your country for the people and not for the dictatorship ruling class or the Russian Organized Crime criminals
 

 

Aha. There are especially many advanced Latverian technologies in our weapons. Latverias are those "free countries", where somebody gets charged with treason carrying up to life sentence for expressing a pro-Russian opinion on YouTube

https://theancestory.com/kirill-fedorov/

In Ukraine, people just disappear. In Russia, people got away with fines for speaking out  against the war under the new law. Normally, you can give shit to Putin all you want.

Russia is not China. There are plenty of examples where US copied pioneering Russian technology too. Everybody does this. I also get an impression that you still think of Russia as communist? It isn't really. I should be obvious by now that the whole thing was never about communism. You simply hate anyone who challenges your top dog position.

[RichieRich216 + 454]

2 hours ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

Aha. There are especially many advanced Latverian technologies in our weapons. Latverias are those "free countries", where somebody gets charged with treason carrying up to life sentence for expressing a pro-Russian opinion on YouTube

https://theancestory.com/kirill-fedorov/

In Ukraine, people just disappear. In Russia, people got away with fines for speaking out  against the war under the new law. Normally, you can give shit to Putin all you want.

Russia is not China. There are plenty of examples where US copied pioneering Russian technology too. Everybody does this. I also get an impression that you still think of Russia as communist? It isn't really. I should be obvious by now that the whole thing was never about communism. You simply hate anyone who challenges your top dog position.

You are under a dictator that longs for the return of the USSR. Your job must be to monitor the oil sites and bullshit back anything in opposition to Putin.

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

20 minutes ago, RichieRich216 said:

You are under a dictator that longs for the return of the USSR. Your job must be to monitor the oil sites and bullshit back anything in opposition to Putin.

I live in Austria. Putin is no dictator. He does not long for the return of the USSR. I do, though. It has been nothing but good to me. I don't have a job. Just two sentences, so many errors.

[Rasmus Jorgensen + 1,169]

On 8/3/2022 at 1:38 AM, Starschy said:

Russia will have a very minor reduced result. About 5-7% in 2022. Russians are very pragmatic types.

It's not just about that. 

The longterm damage to EU-Russia relations will harm Russia economically. And frankfully speaking 

1) this war has made EU countries rally behind EU & NATO

2) Given renewable energy supporters that the argument that renewable energy policy is also security policy

And - europeans are starting to accept energy conservation. Reducing speed on highways and stuff. All in all it is too early to predict the long and medium term outcome. But please believe that politicians now have a far easier time selling some "hardship" to the populations. 

[Starschy + 211]

The Unemployment rate in EU is 6% and above in many Countries. Those numbers will increase and I think next February it looks way different.

.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

19 hours ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

Aha. There are especially many advanced Latverian technologies in our weapons. Latverias are those "free countries", where somebody gets charged with treason carrying up to life sentence for expressing a pro-Russian opinion on YouTube

https://theancestory.com/kirill-fedorov/

In Ukraine, people just disappear. In Russia, people got away with fines for speaking out  against the war under the new law. Normally, you can give shit to Putin all you want.

Russia is not China. There are plenty of examples where US copied pioneering Russian technology too. Everybody does this. I also get an impression that you still think of Russia as communist? It isn't really. I should be obvious by now that the whole thing was never about communism. You simply hate anyone who challenges your top dog position.

Russian journalist Marina Ovsyannikova, who became a symbol of fearless dissent when she interrupted a live TV broadcast in March to protest her country’s invasion of Ukraine, has been placed under house arrest in Moscow pending a trial related to a fresh anti-war protest in July.

Ovsyannikova was arrested on August 10 in a police raid on her Moscow home. She appeared in court on Thursday (August 11) where she was charged with spreading fake news about the military, an offense that carries up to ten years in prison under Russian law.

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

6 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Russian journalist Marina Ovsyannikova, who became a symbol of fearless dissent when she interrupted a live TV broadcast in March to protest her country’s invasion of Ukraine, has been placed under house arrest in Moscow pending a trial related to a fresh anti-war protest in July.

Ovsyannikova was arrested on August 10 in a police raid on her Moscow home. She appeared in court on Thursday (August 11) where she was charged with spreading fake news about the military, an offense that carries up to ten years in prison under Russian law.

She got a fine first couple of times, and left Russia to work for the German "Welt" As it turns out, they hate all Russians there, also the protesting ones, so she left and returned to Russia and turned professional. Protesting the war is all she does now. Basically, she's gone completely nuts. You're comparing this to a fellow who is simply a weapons nut and had a channel called "History of Weapons" on YouTube. He was insufficiently pro-Russian even for YouTube to censor. Unlike Russia or Ukraine, Latvia is not at war with anybody, last I checked? In Ukraine, those suspected of Russian sympathies simply disappear or are killed without a trial. In Russia, "fearless dissenters" get off with a fine. Supporting Russia now carries a prison sentence in Germany also. Pathetically thin turned out the Western civilizational veneer... This German journalist

https://translated.turbopages.org/proxy_u/de-en.ru.4b5a857b-62f6e8cd-3fdb4873-74722d776562/https/www.jungewelt.de/artikel/429477.sackgasse-meinungskorridor-der-fall-alina-lipp.html

( translated story https://www.jungewelt.de/artikel/429477.sackgasse-meinungskorridor-der-fall-alina-lipp.html )

called Alina Lipp, who is now reporting from Donetsk, will have to go to jail if she returns. (She received a letter that she's been tried in absentia, NKVD style) For now, they cancel-cultured her family, like closed all of her parents accounts. Russia does not practice collective punishments.

Edited August 12, 2022 by Andrei Moutchkine

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

9 hours ago, Rasmus Jorgensen said:

It's not just about that. 

The longterm damage to EU-Russia relations will harm Russia economically. And frankfully speaking 

1) this war has made EU countries rally behind EU & NATO

2) Given renewable energy supporters that the argument that renewable energy policy is also security policy

And - europeans are starting to accept energy conservation. Reducing speed on highways and stuff. All in all it is too early to predict the long and medium term outcome. But please believe that politicians now have a far easier time selling some "hardship" to the populations. 

What if it won't harm Russia? Wouldn't the Europeans look stupid? Already do so to me, becoming a tool of American security policy instead of their own.

[Boat + 1,323]

On 8/10/2022 at 9:08 PM, Andrei Moutchkine said:

Japan is comparatively rather small. It is plainly obvious that you would've attacked USSR with nukes and genocided everyone the earliest moment you thought you could get away with it. I am still taken aback what bloodthirsty, soulless monsters your leadership really were. Still likely are. USSR, on the other hand, just wanted to survive. It was always the one on the defense. Quite the opposite of how your Goebbels propaganda renders it now. I used to drink the American Kool Aid for a while myself, but I grew out of it. It is plainly obvious we've been had. So, let's replay, shall we? We have lost no Cold War, we quit it. Your turn now.

If the US would have had those nukes 3 years earlier the Germans wouldn’t have killed all those Russians. 5 years earlier there would not have been a WWII. Like Putin the world breeds land hungry war machines. The US so far, kicks their ass. It’s tech dude, lack of fear your religion teaches, all that glory. It’s bs. Best tech wins. 

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

55 minutes ago, Boat said:

If the US would have had those nukes 3 years earlier the Germans wouldn’t have killed all those Russians. 5 years earlier there would not have been a WWII. Like Putin the world breeds land hungry war machines. The US so far, kicks their ass. It’s tech dude, lack of fear your religion teaches, all that glory. It’s bs. Best tech wins. 

The US does not have a tech advantage on Russia. Very often, quite the opposite. It is the sheer numbers that are on your side. The US has always gone to war while also having a significant numerical advantage, no exceptions. So, please don't pretend to be the high-tech option? I think your secret weapon is having more of everything, not better.

Which religion, the Orthodoxy? The Orthodox are the Christian version of Shiite. They dwell on suffering and martyrdom, it makes them stronger. So, you better hope it doesn't get very popular in Russia again. (Which I don't think it does yet)

There was no practical feasibility in having nukes earlier. First, all the German physics guys had to be flushed by the Nazis and join your nuclear program instead.

[Rasmus Jorgensen + 1,169]

On 8/13/2022 at 1:43 AM, Andrei Moutchkine said:

What if it won't harm Russia? Wouldn't the Europeans look stupid? Already do so to me, becoming a tool of American security policy instead of their own.

And to me Russia looks like tool of Chinese security policy. Who the real winner getting loads of cheap energy? But that is not really the discussion. 

I personally believe we need a stronger EU that can say NO to Russia, China and for that matter the US. More and more are starting to share this view in Europe. Chinas intentions are obvious to most Europeans. Russia has been exposed for what it is. 

It is time that Europe takes responsbillity for Europes security and interest in nearby areas like ME, Africa. US can with China and we can cooperate in Africa and ME. 

As I said - it is far too early to guess on the outcome, but what is clear to me is that Europeans now as a whole understand that the next 20 years wont be as easy as previous years. This makes policy changes much easier. 

Also - Russia cant stop the wind blowing or the sun shining. And they cant stop people insulating their houses better, driving slower etc. 

[Rasmus Jorgensen + 1,169]

On 8/13/2022 at 1:43 AM, Andrei Moutchkine said:

What if it won't harm Russia? Wouldn't the Europeans look stupid? Already do so to me, becoming a tool of American security policy instead of their own.

And to me Russia looks like tool of Chinese security policy. Who the real winner getting loads of cheap energy? But that is not really the discussion. 

I personally believe we need a stronger EU that can say NO to Russia, China and for that matter the US. More and more are starting to share this view in Europe. Chinas intentions are obvious to most Europeans. Russia has been exposed for what it is. 

It is time that Europe takes responsbillity for Europes security and interest in nearby areas like ME, Africa. US can with China and we can cooperate in Africa and ME. 

As I said - it is far too early to guess on the outcome, but what is clear to me is that Europeans now as a whole understand that the next 20 years wont be as easy as previous years. This makes policy changes much easier. 

Also - Russia cant stop the wind blowing or the sun shining. And they cant stop people insulating their houses better, driving slower etc. 

[Rasmus Jorgensen + 1,169]

On 8/13/2022 at 1:43 AM, Andrei Moutchkine said:

What if it won't harm Russia? Wouldn't the Europeans look stupid? Already do so to me, becoming a tool of American security policy instead of their own.

And to me Russia looks like tool of Chinese security policy. Who the real winner getting loads of cheap energy? But that is not really the discussion. 

I personally believe we need a stronger EU that can say NO to Russia, China and for that matter the US. More and more are starting to share this view in Europe. Chinas intentions are obvious to most Europeans. Russia has been exposed for what it is. 

It is time that Europe takes responsbillity for Europes security and interest in nearby areas like ME, Africa. US can with China and we can cooperate in Africa and ME. 

As I said - it is far too early to guess on the outcome, but what is clear to me is that Europeans now as a whole understand that the next 20 years wont be as easy as previous years. This makes policy changes much easier. 

Also - Russia cant stop the wind blowing or the sun shining. And they cant stop people insulating their houses better, driving slower etc. 

[Rasmus Jorgensen + 1,169]

On 8/13/2022 at 1:43 AM, Andrei Moutchkine said:

What if it won't harm Russia? Wouldn't the Europeans look stupid? Already do so to me, becoming a tool of American security policy instead of their own.

And to me Russia looks like tool of Chinese security policy. Who the real winner getting loads of cheap energy? But that is not really the discussion. 

I personally believe we need a stronger EU that can say NO to Russia, China and for that matter the US. More and more are starting to share this view in Europe. Chinas intentions are obvious to most Europeans. Russia has been exposed for what it is. 

It is time that Europe takes responsbillity for Europes security and interest in nearby areas like ME, Africa. US can with China and we can cooperate in Africa and ME. 

As I said - it is far too early to guess on the outcome, but what is clear to me is that Europeans now as a whole understand that the next 20 years wont be as easy as previous years. This makes policy changes much easier. 

Also - Russia cant stop the wind blowing or the sun shining. And they cant stop people insulating their houses better, driving slower etc. 

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

3 minutes ago, Rasmus Jorgensen said:

And to me Russia looks like tool of Chinese security policy. Who the real winner getting loads of cheap energy? But that is not really the discussion. 

I personally believe we need a stronger EU that can say NO to Russia, China and for that matter the US. More and more are starting to share this view in Europe. Chinas intentions are obvious to most Europeans. Russia has been exposed for what it is. 

It is time that Europe takes responsbillity for Europes security and interest in nearby areas like ME, Africa. US can with China and we can cooperate in Africa and ME. 

As I said - it is far too early to guess on the outcome, but what is clear to me is that Europeans now as a whole understand that the next 20 years wont be as easy as previous years. This makes policy changes much easier. 

Also - Russia cant stop the wind blowing or the sun shining. And they cant stop people insulating their houses better, driving slower etc. 

No, Russia and China have a mutually synergetic existence. And so could Europe, if only it had the power to give the boot to Uncle Sam. Who wouldn't mind if all of Eurasia goes to heck.

Russia has been exposed for what? I don't see how interethnic strife, left in a wake of Soviet breakdown, applies to the relationship with the West. There has never been an Empire which broke down entirely peacefully, and you haven't exactly been helping, by sponsoring "color revolutions" all around Russia. What does this expose you for?

If this is what Europeans understand, they are sheep programmed by the media. Russia is not the enemy.

Oil and gas are not only used for energy, but as a feedstock to make everything. The development level of society is very closely correlated with per capita energy use. Which is declining everywhere in the "collective West", except for the countries which are net exporters. Norway, Australia, USA. The only Asia Pacific country in decline is Japan. Everybody else is propelled by Chinese steamroller, which grows exponentially. Russia is already ahead of Germany on this metric. So, you go ahead and destroy your productivity and quality of life. I remember the fully sustainable lifestyle of USSR, where everything was reusable and made out of natural materials only. You'll quit the moment you have to hand-wash your child's soiled diapers.

 

[NickW + 2,714]

On 8/13/2022 at 4:31 AM, Andrei Moutchkine said:

The US does not have a tech advantage on Russia. Very often, quite the opposite. It is the sheer numbers that are on your side. The US has always gone to war while also having a significant numerical advantage, no exceptions. So, please don't pretend to be the high-tech option? I think your secret weapon is having more of everything, not better.

Which religion, the Orthodoxy? The Orthodox are the Christian version of Shiite. They dwell on suffering and martyrdom, it makes them stronger. So, you better hope it doesn't get very popular in Russia again. (Which I don't think it does yet)

There was no practical feasibility in having nukes earlier. First, all the German physics guys had to be flushed by the Nazis and join your nuclear program instead.

Really. Is that why we have seen Russian pilots with Garmin satnavs ducktaped to the dashboards in their cockpits. 

Or Russian reactive armour AKA blocks of rubber or egg boxes. 

Or the indigenous Lada Granta 2022

It's 2022 But The Lada Granta Classic Is Built Without Airbags And ABS (motor1.com)

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

5 minutes ago, NickW said:

Really. Is that why we have seen Russian pilots with Garmin satnavs ducktaped to the dashboards in their cockpits. 

Or Russian reactive armour AKA blocks of rubber or egg boxes. 

Or the indigenous Lada Granta 2022

It's 2022 But The Lada Granta Classic Is Built Without Airbags And ABS (motor1.com)

They have multiple failover navigation systems.

"Blocks of rubber" was a Ukrainian fake, showing a cannibalized tank. "Egg boxes" are actually regulation spacers

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nrHt0Q6eSI4

AFAIK, is the only missing part in the new Lada the airbag. Everything else has found a replacement in China, Turkey or Iran, and then some. They are also going to be cheaper. Emissions downgraded to Euro 2. You are going to be paying for the Green transition alone, Russians have been absolved.

[NickW + 2,714]

2 minutes ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

They have multiple failover navigation systems.

"Blocks of rubber" was a Ukrainian fake, showing a cannibalized tank. "Egg boxes" are actually regulation spacers

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nrHt0Q6eSI4

AFAIK, is the only missing part in the new Lada the airbag. Everything else has found a replacement in China, Turkey or Iran, and then some. They are also going to be cheaper. Emissions downgraded to Euro 2. You are going to be paying for the Green transition alone, Russians have been absolved.

So why use a Garmin GPS then?

--------------

Nothing to do with global warming. Euro grades are really about local air pollution. 

You are going to be paying with more asthma, COPD, lung cancer etc. 

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

11 hours ago, NickW said:

So why use a Garmin GPS then?

--------------

Nothing to do with global warming. Euro grades are really about local air pollution. 

You are going to be paying with more asthma, COPD, lung cancer etc. 

He must've liked the interface? It certainly is not regulation. I also prefer TomTom to any built-in car navigation or smartphone.

Here is a story of some aviation enthusiast flying an Il-76 with an Azeri cockpit crew. They've got a dedicated navigator with his own cabin with a view, and he's got like five navigation systems, one of which is an off-the-shelf consumer item, too. The regulation ones can be quite clunky

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yInZQ3z8H1s

It is mostly about NOx, allegedly causing acid rain. It is harmless to people. Here is the full spec.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_emission_standards#Emission_standards_for_passenger_cars

Euro 6 is certainly ridiculous, requiring an additional liquid to fill for a diesel engine (an urea solution)

Edited August 16, 2022 by Andrei Moutchkine