Is Europe heading for winter of discontent with extensive gas shortages?

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

3 minutes ago, NickW said:

Various declarations made by Putler and Co at the beginning of this invasion. 

Whats the cost so far on the Russian side - 60,000-80,000 casualties? 

Show me?

I don't know, but my guess is no more than 15,000. 190,000 for Ukraine. They will be running out of cannon fodder and Western-supplied equipment soon enough. Already out of free cash.

[Starschy + 211]

At this point the financial collapse of Uniper is the biggest risk in Europe. Uniper loses around 50 Mio. EUR per Day. After 6 Months in 2022 they lost 13 Billions EUR. Even when the German Government offered to buy 30% of the Shares - the Shareholders of Uniper delayed this issue till mid September. And the loss will be bigger as they have to buy more additional (non-Russian) Gas from Outside.

[Starschy + 211]

On 8/18/2022 at 7:14 PM, Andrei Moutchkine said:

Those are either classified as NATO special friends or simply have more money than is good for them.

Any tank can ford up to 5 meters with a snorkel. In theory. Specifically, the M1 will likely cave in a random town street and drop into the sewers before it gets to the river bank.

The Nato Tanks can't cross the Dnjepr as it's wide from 300 m to 2 km at least.

Edited August 19, 2022 by Starschy

[Starschy + 211]

Starting End of August - Gazprom will shutting down Nord Stream 1 for 3 days maintenance.

[Starschy + 211]

9 hours ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

Show me?

I don't know, but my guess is no more than 15,000. 190,000 for Ukraine. They will be running out of cannon fodder and Western-supplied equipment soon enough. Already out of free cash.

I'm with Andrei here. All numbers from Ukrainian side and those influencers from CIA and ;I6 are way to high.

Russian costs are much lower. As Ammunition, Tanks and various Equipment was bought at least 40 years ago. Missile are a bit younger dated from 1985+ but still most of research and production was till 1995. Beside the newest ones.

Edited August 19, 2022 by Starschy

[specinho + 467]

On 8/15/2022 at 5:24 PM, Rasmus Jorgensen said:

And to me Russia looks like tool of Chinese security policy. Who the real winner getting loads of cheap energy? But that is not really the discussion. 

I personally believe we need a stronger EU that can say NO to Russia, China and for that matter the US. More and more are starting to share this view in Europe. Chinas intentions are obvious to most Europeans. Russia has been exposed for what it is. 

It is time that Europe takes responsbillity for Europes security and interest in nearby areas like ME, Africa. US can with China and we can cooperate in Africa and ME. 

As I said - it is far too early to guess on the outcome, but what is clear to me is that Europeans now as a whole understand that the next 20 years wont be as easy as previous years. This makes policy changes much easier. 

Also - Russia cant stop the wind blowing or the sun shining. And they cant stop people insulating their houses better, driving slower etc. 

Not at all a problem if EU would like to niche not with communists of hard to conform to your believes and practice, but with those you believe can ........... An eagerness to let things get done better is good. However, there might not be just one and only way things could be functioning or work out.

On certain circumstance, it is better to have unanimous conformity or unity. But the price could be missing out voice of the truth. No one would like to be different from anyone else due to the need of earning meager livelihood, right? If something goes side way, there could be an avalanche of things that would take a short time to happen, decades to be reconstructed.

There could be better ways, less or unexplored, on how to make things work better..... Search or ask, and you shall find......... 'u'

[Tomasz + 1,608]

One Day People will understand these sanctions are to cripple western Europe economically. 

USA dont want independent strong Europe. So  USA will put energy sanctions to last european factory based on cheap Energy. 

Without cheap Energy European business model is simply broken. 

[Starschy + 211]

The central issue is in Europe will Uniper collapse. If they collapse Nov 22-March 23 it will get a big Chaos. Even when Germany buys 100% of the stocks. There will be legal issues till 2030 at least.

Fortum Company the major Shareholder of Uniper holds around 75%. The company has a weak Balance Sheet and they pay their Risk specialist at the Board a small fee of 5000 EUR . For a Company with Nuclear Risks this is not even worth to be a Board member.

[Tomasz + 1,608]

Well let me explain

Yeap Russia invade Ukraine -FACT

But sorry I see a really fucked up logic here

French economy minister said explicicly that they want to just crush russian economy. CRUSH

So because of Ukraine crash a relation of last 200 years after Napoleon-  alliance both in First World War, Second World War and de Gaulle strategy of common Europe

And now you demand from Russia to sell you a lot of gas

Im sorry but are you mentally disabled to understand some actions has consequences?

Even if yes Russia invaded Ukraine. But that not the only one war even now. Its still child camp in comparison with Yemen or Syria

If you talk about destroying/crashing/canceling Russia and it probably didnt happen whats next on horizon after that?

Edited August 22, 2022 by Tomasz

[Mark Sloan + 9]

19 minutes ago, Tomasz said:

Well let me explain

Yeap Russia invade Ukraine -FACT

But sorry I see a really fucked up logic here

French economy minister said explicicly that they want to just crush russian economy. CRUSH

So because of Ukraine crash a relation of last 200 years after Napoleon-  alliance both in First World War, Second World War and de Gaulle strategy of common Europe

And now you demand from Russia to sell you a lot of gas

Im sorry but are you mentally disabled to understand some actions has consequences?

Even if yes Russia invaded Ukraine. But that not the only one war even now. Its still child camp in comparison with Yemen or Syria

If you talk about destroying/crashing/canceling Russia and it probably didnt happen whats next on horizon after that?

I couldn't help but notice a fucked up logic in war comparison. Can any war be characterized as a child camp? Human lives have been lost on both sides, and I really don't see anything childish here, since we're talking about mental disability. 

There is nothing that can justify this war that Russia started. 

 

[Tomasz + 1,608]

Simple Russia and Europe are now in a state of messy divorce. There is no trust between Russia and USA.

Russia also found European Union as economy part of NATO.

So no trust at all currently.

[Mark Sloan + 9]

You call it messy divorce, I call it bloodshed. We can agree on one thing, no one trusts Russia. 

[Tomasz + 1,608]

Its very simple. It could have been maybe just enough to prevent this war - maybe

Quote

Scholz assured Putin that Ukraine would not join NATO for another 30 years German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, before bringing Russian troops to Ukraine, assured Russian President Vladimir Putin that Ukraine would not join NATO in the next 30 years. He said this during an open day at the Federal Chancellery, reports die Welt. Expand to full screen Photo: Michele Tantussi, Reuters Фото: Michele Tantussi, Reuters The German chancellor also told the president of the Russian Federation that NATO has never been a threat to Russia. He rejected the allegations that the North Atlantic Alliance does not care about Russia's interests. Scholz considers the excuse to bring troops into Ukraine "completely absurd". The chancellor of Germany and the president of Russia spoke on the phone for the last time on December 21. The parties discussed granting Moscow a security guarantee. On February 15, Scholz met with Putin in Moscow. Less than two weeks later, the President of the Russian Federation ordered the start of a military operation in Ukraine.

But unfortunately its not enough if you know history and russian greavances

NATO Expansion: What Gorbachev Heard | National Security Archive (gwu.edu)

Why this is so important. Because as far as I know Putin mentions not one inch eastward EVERY SINGLE TIME AS FAR AS REMEMBER

And this is it- total lack of trust.

[Tomasz + 1,608]

What can I Say. Congratulations. I dont know who should I thanks more

USA imposing sanctions against Russia to last European

or famous WEF. You know the legendary one mem - You will own nothing and be happy

Sorry but this is epic

 

Quote

 

Belgian Prime Minister Warns of 10 ‘Difficult’ Winters for Euro

The next “5 to 10 winters will be difficult,” Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo warned on Monday as energy prices in Europe soared to new records.

“The development of the situation is very difficult throughout Europe,” De Croo told reporters. “Some sectors are facing serious difficulties with these high energy prices.”

His comments come as European natural gas prices surged to about 15 times the average summer time price and electricity spiked over the threat of further Russian supply cuts. 

The single biggest risk of the ongoing fallout from the war in Ukraine is the possibility that European solidarity could break down, one Belgian official said, adding such an outcome could undermine energy markets and damage efforts to reach climate neutrality by 2050. 

 

Benchmark gas futures rose as much as 21%, while German power surged to above 700 euros ($698.21) a megawatt-hour for the first time as the key Nord Stream gas pipeline is set to stop for three days of maintenance on Aug. 31, again raising concerns that the link won’t return to service as planned. 

De Croo said that Belgium can endure the crisis “if we support each other in these difficult times.”

 

 

Edited August 22, 2022 by Tomasz

[Tomasz + 1,608]

European Buyers Are Snapping Up the Most Russian Crude Since April

Seaborne crude flows from Russia jump in the week to Aug. 19

Julian Lee

Russia’s crude shipments surged last week, recovering almost all of the previous slump. Seaborne exports to European buyers rose to the highest level since April, as some refiners continue to process barrels, even after Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. 

[Tomasz + 1,608]

To be honest I would sell you this NG if I were Putin.

 I do not consider Europe an enemy of Russia. On the other hand, the USA - it's better for Russia to be the Chinese vassal than the American one.

They will also take advantage of russian people, but after 30 years of non-stop love policy from the US side IMHO now even the prospect of the Chinese yoke is not terrible.

[Tomasz + 1,608]

OPEC+ MAY NEED TO TIGHTEN OUTPUT TO STABILIZE MKT: SAUDI MIN

 

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

5 hours ago, Mark Sloan said:

I couldn't help but notice a fucked up logic in war comparison. Can any war be characterized as a child camp? Human lives have been lost on both sides, and I really don't see anything childish here, since we're talking about mental disability. 

There is nothing that can justify this war that Russia started. 

 

Unless, Russia didn't really start it? It's been raging for 8 years already.

[Tomasz + 1,608]

2 minutes ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

Unless, Russia didn't really start it? It's been raging for 8 years already.

Russia started war after being provoked. It was said so many times in mainstream media that this was unprovoked attack - that this is best argument of provocation. Given by biggest languist of modern era Noam Chomsky

You must decide - you want to destroy Russia or to have a loing-term contract with Gazprom. You can eat cake and still have it.

[Boat + 1,323]

Tomaz, your being ridiculous. The US does not want any Russian land. The USSR lost those other countries because of their mismanagement. Poor starving people want change. The Russian political system does not create distributed chances for improvement. Other wise the USSR would not have split up. The idea a few oligarchs get most of nations resources just won’t float anymore. Blame citizens of countries with homes, education, vacations, nice cars, stuff and more stuff. They are on the internet showing off their lifestyle. Talk about why Russia isn’t like that. It ain’t America. 

[Tomasz + 1,608]

To be honest you Just took a totally wrong position. 

Its simply proxy war between Russia and NATO where Ukrainians are only Cannon folder. 

SO you are in wrong mood.  You should be happy at this stage you Got any gaś.  120 milion cubic metets per Day is still better than nothing

300 bilion $ is normalny about 1 trilion cubic meters of gas.  You can find it as neverending force majoure from Russian side. 

[Rasmus Jorgensen + 1,169]

9 hours ago, Tomasz said:

You must decide - you want to destroy Russia or to have a loing-term contract with Gazprom. You can eat cake and still have it.

The west will cope. 

You seem to be living in this illusion that this shortterm pain is perpetual. Yes, gas prices hurt. But have you noticed how this is changing EUs views on Nuclear? 

Some of your commentary is not wrong. It is however, very short sighted. Nothing like high energy prices to make people invest in conserving energy such as better insulation on houses etc, more fuel efficient cars. Throughout history crisiss has propelled innovation and change. Why should this one be any different? And what is the longterm perspective for Russia is their gas becomes less relevant? 

[Rasmus Jorgensen + 1,169]

10 hours ago, Tomasz said:

 I do not consider Europe an enemy of Russia. On the other hand, the USA - it's better for Russia to be the Chinese vassal than the American one.

seriously? 

what do you know of China to state this? Have you seen how the Chinese treat African countries? 

 

[Hotone + 412]

1 hour ago, Rasmus Jorgensen said:

seriously? 

what do you know of China to state this? Have you seen how the Chinese treat African countries? 

 

And how did China treat African countries compared to the Western slave colonizers?

If you consider the United States to be the most benevolent Western country, what has America done for Africa compared to China?

Edited August 23, 2022 by Hotone

[Rasmus Jorgensen + 1,169]

16 minutes ago, Hotone said:

If you consider the United States to be the most benevolent Western country

I don't