Is Europe heading for winter of discontent with extensive gas shortages?

[Tomasz + 1,608]

1 hour ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Another Russian Ammunition Warehouse Blows Up in Kherson

 

Try to beat this one

1 Kalibr in Kharkov looks like Beirut port incident. Rather big one.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1569441683275919360

Edited September 15, 2022 by Tomasz

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

3 hours ago, Tomasz said:

Try to beat this one

1 Kalibr in Kharkov looks like Beirut port incident

https://twitter.com/i/status/1569441683275919360

Russian terrorism on civilian targets that wreaks of desperation, well done. Oh and most of the power has already been restored. 

Ukraine forces are now less than 10 miles from Kherson and advancing. Do you really think Putin is going to survive the fall of Kherson?

 

Edited September 15, 2022 by Jay McKinsey

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

7 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Russian terrorism on civilian targets that wreaks of desperation, well done. Oh and most of the power has already been restored. 

Ukraine forces are now less than 10 miles from Kherson and advancing. Do you really think Putin is going to survive the fall of Kherson?

 

Putin might survive that but I cant see him surviving the fall of Crimea.

Xi Xinping waiting in the wings to mop up after he is gone.

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

9 hours ago, Tomasz said:

Because Ukraine really need A LOT OF AMMUNITION EVERY DAY. I I would also emphasize however that also the Soviet or post-Soviet ammunition. 

Looks like the scared retreating Russian army is leaving most of theirs behind for the Ukranians! Nice of them!

Ukraine war: Behind Russia's abandoned lines, ammunition, scattered clothes and wrecked vehicles found

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-russian-military-might-is-a-big-fake-crack-volunteer-unit-spearheads-liberation-of-key-city-12697702

[Rasmus Jorgensen + 1,169]

11 hours ago, Tomasz said:

So you dont get any gas this winter.

You still dont understand. I am OK with this. I can wear a sweater indoors if I need to. 

It has forced Europe to implement policies long overdue. 

Pls understand the psychology of the West. If all your peers have a new iphone and you dont it is a catastrophe. If majority of people doesnt have a new iphone and it is all Russias fault then it is easier implementing long overdue longterm policies. 

Edited September 15, 2022 by Rasmus Jorgensen

[Rasmus Jorgensen + 1,169]

11 hours ago, Tomasz said:

PS

Except of Hungary of course so this is a real reason why you now want to punish Orban because he finnaly was the only one sane PM in european union.

No. Orbans policies are cruel and Hungary should be booted from the EU. Infringing on basic human rights and being a member of EU doesnt work. You cant mix and match. 

Good luck to Hungary. Maybe it will serve as an example to other countries who think they can mix and match

[NickW + 2,714]

1 hour ago, Rasmus Jorgensen said:

You still dont understand. I am OK with this. I can wear a sweater indoors if I need to. 

It has forced Europe to implement policies long overdue. 

Pls understand the psychology of the West. If all your peers have a new iphone and you dont it is a catastrophe. If majority of people doesnt have a new iphone and it is all Russias fault then it is easier implementing long overdue longterm policies. 

Europe accepts 14 Dec C internal temps this winter (cool but not freeze to death territory) it doesn't need a kwh of russian gas. 

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

Its a case of will they or wont they for Groningen gas field and cheap NG for large parts of Europe.

The Groningen gas field in the Netherlands is vast. It's the largest in the European Union, and one of the 10 biggest in the world. Its available reserves of about 450 billion cubic meters are equivalent to all the EU's needs for one year.

Fears of new quakes in Dutch gas field as energy crisis bites

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/22/fears-earthquakes-dutch-gas-field-energy-crisis

Groningen gas field on the back burner in October

https://www.government.nl/latest/news/2022/06/20/groningen-gas-field-on-the-back-burner-in-october

 

[specinho + 467]

On 9/15/2022 at 5:53 PM, NickW said:

Europe accepts 14 Dec C internal temps this winter (cool but not freeze to death territory) it doesn't need a kwh of russian gas. 

not too sure if this low hanging cloud is common to everyone but for me, this is rather new phenomena......

It might mean colder temperature of atmosphere at lower range of altitude hence, condensation happens at lower height... The amount of water and impact on soil deduced to be more abundant and severe....... ( More water vapour would be converted into cloud before they have time to go any where higher and they hit harder on soil creates erosion and more frequent landslide......). The winter could be colder with much heavy snow?

[Starschy + 211]

On 9/14/2022 at 9:48 AM, Rob Plant said:

You think that proposal is revolutionary? buying 14 hydrogen trains??? really??

 

Compared to those 2 Mio £ support from UK are those Trains a fare better project.

[Boat + 1,323]

On 9/14/2022 at 4:58 AM, Rasmus Jorgensen said:

This is exactly what @Tomasz and the Russians dont understand. This energy crisis is forcing the whole of Europe to implement longterm decisions that are long overdue. Hydrogen, Nuclear etc. Where is the longterm market for Russian gas outside China ?

Once the world figures out how to survive without Russian FF the march towards renewables returns full speed. With a Putin demise maybe a market will return for nat gas to replace coal and other offensive polluters. 

[notsonice + 1,255]

5 hours ago, Wombat One said:

NotSoClever?

How much time have you worked with electrochemistry or in any plants or refineries that use electrochem based equipment????? 

[Boat + 1,323]

Study findings suggest association between exposure to air pollution -- particularly in the first 5 years of life -- and alterations in brain structure 

Experts have assessed, for the first time, children’s exposure to air pollution from conception to 8.5 years of age on a monthly basis 

Peer-Reviewed Publication

BARCELONA INSTITUTE FOR GLOBAL HEALTH (ISGLOBAL)

 

PrintEmail App

A study published in the journal Environmental Pollution has found an association, in children aged 9‑12, between exposure to air pollutants in the womb and during the first 8.5 years of life and alterations in white matter structural connectivity in the brain. The greater the child’s exposure before age 5, the greater the brain structure alteration observed in preadolescence.
 

Imagine that. Pollution is dangerous to thinking potential. Y’all been a lifetime at the refinery eh?

[notsonice + 1,255]

2 hours ago, Wombat One said:

Yawn. Chemists are just second-rate applied physicists. They cannot see the forest for the trees and are not even capable of understanding the heaviest elements in the universe.

 

thanks for confirming you really have no clue what you are talking about and you are just another BSer 

[Tomasz + 1,608]

1/ Now that the Nordstream pipelines are gone it's worth thinking about how a deindustrialisation of Europe via permantly high energy prices

2/ European manufacturing will no longer be economically viable. Energy inputs - one of the key inputs in manufacturing - will be too expensive to viably produce products. They will simply be cheaper to buy elsewhere.

3/ There is a good chance some of this manufacturing will move to America - but only in the very short-term. Why? Because investment in manufacturing creates demand for manufactured products. Manufacturing creates jobs in Europe, the workers buy the products.

4/ With no manufacturing jobs, Europeans will have far less purchasing power. If some of the manufacturing moves to America, it will be short-lived. America will realise that much of its export market has collapsed. Note that the EU makes up around 10% of US exports.

5/ Then there are the imports to the US. US continue to buy some but they will be massively more expensive due to higher input costs. The US will try to poach some of this manufacturing and onshore it, but there are numerous constraints here; skilled work, infrastructure etc.

6/ Crushing European manufacturing simply creates a black hole in Europe. This black hole sucks in everything around it as economic activity around its borders dries up. Europe will also have to respond by shutting out exports to try to revive its uncompetitive industry.

7/ Basically the only strategy for Europe will be to shut itself off and force its higher priced products on its residents. This will likely be accompanied by accelerated energy investment policies. This will result in yet more economic chaos for the West.

8/ All of this is basically a repeat of what happened in the 1920s. It resulted in the Great Depression. But this time, only the West will sink into depression. The new BRICS+ bloc is building a seperate economic bloc and will continue to grow while the West wither on the vine.

9/ The European energy war will likely go down in hitory, together with the Treaty of Versailles and the trade wars of the 1930s, as one of the biggest economic policy errors in history.

10/ Another thing: when Trump was elected on a platform of milder protectionism, many people rightly pointed to the 1920s and 1930s and warned against these policies. These same people appear to have supported these much more 1920s/30s-like policies this past year. Ironic.

 

The US finally got around to implementing the Morgenthau plan for Germany. Obvious it was US but we live in dystopian times, so these pyschos will probably blame russia

Quote

GERMAN ECONOMY MINISTER HABECK: SPECULATIONS ABOUT THE REASON FOR NORD STREAM 1 LEAK ARE CURRENTLY FORBIDDEN.

Because "somebody" with a vested interest in selling their own energy to Europe at a higher price just blew it up.

Just a reminder that there is literally no pretzel logic media won’t use to say that it is always, in every case, Putin’s fault. Someone destroyed Russia’s $30 billion investment and leverage over Europe? Putin did. Someone shelled a Ru controlled nuclear power plant? Putin did

Edited September 27, 2022 by Tomasz

[notsonice + 1,255]

4 hours ago, Tomasz said:

1/ Now that the Nordstream pipelines are gone it's worth thinking about how a deindustrialisation of Europe via permantly high energy prices

2/ European manufacturing will no longer be economically viable. Energy inputs - one of the key inputs in manufacturing - will be too expensive to viably produce products. They will simply be cheaper to buy elsewhere.

3/ There is a good chance some of this manufacturing will move to America - but only in the very short-term. Why? Because investment in manufacturing creates demand for manufactured products. Manufacturing creates jobs in Europe, the workers buy the products.

4/ With no manufacturing jobs, Europeans will have far less purchasing power. If some of the manufacturing moves to America, it will be short-lived. America will realise that much of its export market has collapsed. Note that the EU makes up around 10% of US exports.

5/ Then there are the imports to the US. US continue to buy some but they will be massively more expensive due to higher input costs. The US will try to poach some of this manufacturing and onshore it, but there are numerous constraints here; skilled work, infrastructure etc.

6/ Crushing European manufacturing simply creates a black hole in Europe. This black hole sucks in everything around it as economic activity around its borders dries up. Europe will also have to respond by shutting out exports to try to revive its uncompetitive industry.

7/ Basically the only strategy for Europe will be to shut itself off and force its higher priced products on its residents. This will likely be accompanied by accelerated energy investment policies. This will result in yet more economic chaos for the West.

8/ All of this is basically a repeat of what happened in the 1920s. It resulted in the Great Depression. But this time, only the West will sink into depression. The new BRICS+ bloc is building a seperate economic bloc and will continue to grow while the West wither on the vine.

9/ The European energy war will likely go down in hitory, together with the Treaty of Versailles and the trade wars of the 1930s, as one of the biggest economic policy errors in history.

10/ Another thing: when Trump was elected on a platform of milder protectionism, many people rightly pointed to the 1920s and 1930s and warned against these policies. These same people appear to have supported these much more 1920s/30s-like policies this past year. Ironic.

 

The US finally got around to implementing the Morgenthau plan for Germany. Obvious it was US but we live in dystopian times, so these pyschos will probably blame russia

Because "somebody" with a vested interest in selling their own energy to Europe at a higher price just blew it up.

Just a reminder that there is literally no pretzel logic media won’t use to say that it is always, in every case, Putin’s fault. Someone destroyed Russia’s $30 billion investment and leverage over Europe? Putin did. Someone shelled a Ru controlled nuclear power plant? Putin did

who cares, the pipes were already toast......Nordstream 2 was just a pipe dream........never going to open........

Nothing was flowing anyway......Just what Putin wanted

Russia Gas ????? the world will get along without it.....

And Gazprom........Nordstream.......Poof not worth anything.......No more gas moving.....No more sales no more profit ................

Enjoy as your beloved Russian Empire collapses from within 

 

Edited September 28, 2022 by notsonice

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

4 hours ago, notsonice said:

Russia Gas ????? the world will get along without it.....

Absoultely!

There are lots of alternatives for the EU. There may be a couple of years of pain and then the whole energy crisis will be a thing for historians.

EU manufacturing collapse Tomasz??? Get real for a second, your scare mongering doesnt wash with me. Other low cost countries such as China have been way cheaper for decades and yet there is still plenty of manufacturing in the EU. In fact at present manufacturing companies who are in the energy markets are turning work away with record order books.

Russia on the other hand are now the pariah of the world and no countries or major global OEM's are going to choose to trade with them, sanctions or no sanctions.

By the way as a massive pro Russia fan are you going to enlist in the Russian army or are you going to run away like all the Russian men are doing currently?

Putin is toast!

[Tomasz + 1,608]

Im not suprised by reaction of Americans. As Kissinger said being an enemy of USA might be dangerous but being an ally is fatal. 

Wise man. 

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

1 hour ago, Tomasz said:

Im not suprised by reaction of Americans. As Kissinger said being an enemy of USA might be dangerous but being an ally is fatal. 

Wise man. 

Im not American and nor is NickW who upvoted my post.

More interestingly is the reaction of China and India to Putin and Russia's war in Ukraine!

I think Xi is playing the waiting game like a spider and its prey with Putin.

[notsonice + 1,255]

8 hours ago, Tomasz said:

Im not suprised by reaction of Americans. As Kissinger said being an enemy of USA might be dangerous but being an ally is fatal. 

Wise man. 

your posts are that of a desperate Putin supporter..... Please join the Russian fight.....Join the Russian army....they can use you to plug a hole in their line..............lets see how long you last..... Or are you afraid of becoming a statistic......How many young Russian men have been sacraficed to date??????? Please sign up ... I hear they are giving great bonuses.....

Just remember Hearses do no have trailer hitches......... And your wealth does not do any good after you are buried 6 feet under.

Enjoy

 

Edited September 28, 2022 by notsonice

[NickW + 2,714]

2 hours ago, notsonice said:

your posts are that of a desperate Putin supporter..... Please join the Russian fight.....Join the Russian army....they can use you to plug a hole in their line..............lets see how long you last..... Or are you afraid of becoming a statistic......How many young Russian men have been sacraficed to date??????? Please sign up ... I here they are giving great bonuses.....

Just remember Hearses do no have trailer hitches......... And your wealth does not do any good after you are buried 6 feet under.

Enjoy

 

Thomasz

[Tomasz + 1,608]

3 hours ago, NickW said:

Thomasz

You still dont understand its not about Ukraine. Its about creating new balance of power in Europe.

This week Europeans get informed USA is ready even to bomb Nord Stream to prolong conflict.

You have now a big mess in Europe because of high energy prices.

And article like this in Wall Street Jounal.

Common people are starting to see whats going on.

Quote

 

AMSTERDAM—A big winner from the energy crisis in Europe: the U.S. economy.

Battered by skyrocketing gas prices, companies in Europe that make steel, fertilizer and other feedstocks of economic activity are shifting operations to the U.S., attracted by more stable energy prices and muscular government support. 

As wild swings in energy prices and persistent supply-chain troubles threaten Europe with what some economists warn could be a new era of deindustrialization, Washington has unveiled a raft of incentives for manufacturing and green energy. The upshot is a playing field increasingly tilted in the U.S.’s favor, executives say, particularly for companies placing bets on projects to make chemicals, batteries and other energy-intensive products. 

“It’s a no-brainer to go and do that in the United States,” said Ahmed El-Hoshy, chief executive of Amsterdam-based chemical firm OCI NV, which this month announced an expansion of an ammonia plant in Texas.

While the U.S. economy is facing record inflation, supply-chain bottlenecks and fears of a slowdown, analysts say, it has emerged relatively strong from the pandemic as China continues to enforce Covid lockdowns and Europe is destabilized by war. New spending by Washington on infrastructure, microchips and green-energy projects has heightened the U.S.’s business appeal.

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Danish jewelry company Pandora A/S and German auto maker Volkswagen AG announced U.S. expansions earlier this year. Last week, The Wall Street Journal reported Tesla Inc. is pausing its plans to make battery cells in Germany as it looks at qualifying for tax credits under the Inflation Reduction Act signed by President Biden in August.

Europe remains a desirable market for advanced manufacturing and boasts a skilled industrial workforce, analysts and investors say. With pent-up demand from the pandemic, many companies that have seen exploding energy prices in recent months have passed them on to customers. The question is how long the higher natural-gas prices will last. 

Some economists have warned that natural-gas producers from Canada to the U.S. and Qatar may struggle to fully replace Russia as a supplier for Europe in the medium term. If so, the continent could face high prices, at least for gas, well into 2024, threatening to make the scarring on Europe’s manufacturing sector permanent.  

German chemical giant BASF, one of Europe’s largest buyers of natural gas, has cut production in Belgian and German plants.

PHOTO: RONALD WITTEK/SHUTTERSTOCK

“I think we’ll muddle through two winters,” said Stefan Borgas, chief executive of RHI Magnesita NV. If the continent can’t find cheaper gas or ramp up renewable energy, he added, “companies will start to look elsewhere.”

The Austrian business, which makes materials used by firms such as steelmakers to withstand intense heat, is spending about 8 million euros, equivalent to about $8 million, on its European plants so certain processes run on alternative fuel such as coal or oil. It is also storing natural gas in a rented underground facility formerly owned by Kremlin-controlled Gazprom and seized by the Austrian government.

‘We are very, very positive on the U.S. ,’ said Stefan Borgas, the chief executive of Austrian manufacturer RHI Magnesita.

PHOTO: LEONHARD FOEGER/REUTERS

Mr. Borgas is bullish on steel demand in the U.S., where incentives have also brightened the green-energy outlook. Manufacturers like RHI Magnesita see hydrogen as key to replacing fossil fuels and reducing emissions in plants across Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. Promised spending on such projects by Washington is expected to boost the production of hydrogen and eventually lower its price. 

“We are increasing our investments [in the U.S.] also in order to stay with all of our partners who are investing,” he said. “We are very, very positive on the U.S.”

Luxembourg-based ArcelorMittal SA, which this month said it would cut production at two German plants, reported better-than-expected performance by an investment this year in a Texas facility that makes hot briquetted iron, a raw material for steel production. In a July earnings call, Chief Executive Aditya Mittal attributed the facility’s value in part to being in a “region that offers highly competitive energy and, ultimately, competitive hydrogen.”

“I would just add that we also own 100% of future expansion in that facility,” Mr. Mittal said. 

Nord Stream: How Russia Has Turned Its Gas Into a Global Economic Weapon

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Western leaders are preparing for the possibility that Russian natural gas flows through the key Nord Stream pipeline may never return to full levels. WSJ’s Shelby Holliday explains what an energy crisis could look like in Europe, and how it might ripple through the world. Illustration: David Fang

Many companies remain cautious about changing their strategies because of the difficulty of building projects such as aluminum smelters, which can cost billions and take years to complete. 

“It remains to be seen whether this will be a structural change or one of a temporary nature,” said a spokeswoman for German chemical giant BASF, one of Europe’s largest buyers of natural gas, which has cut production in Belgian and German plants. 

OCI, which has slashed its European ammonia output, has instead ramped up imports to its facility at the Dutch port of Rotterdam. To facilitate such shipments, OCI is expanding its Beaumont, Texas, plant with an investment valued in the “high hundreds of millions” of dollars, said Mr. El-Hoshy, the chief executive.

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At the new facility, OCI will make ammonia derived from so-called blue hydrogen, which relies on natural gas, and then capture carbon dioxide given off by the process. Mr. El-Hoshy said the Inflation Reduction Act made the deal more appealing by offering credits for storing such emissions. 

“That, coupled with what’s happening with Russia, are two reasons to say, well, maybe over time you don’t need to consume natural gas [in Europe] and produce the product,” he said. 

European manufacturers may struggle to stay competitive without the lower energy prices or green incentives currently offered in the U.S., said Svein Tore Holsether, chief executive of Norwegian fertilizer giant Yara International AS A. 

“Some industries, as a result of that, will permanently relocate,” he said.

 

 

People are simply beginning to be very angry with the leaders of European countries driven more by American rather than European interests

Well, unless someone thinks Putin would really like that now Europeans have not found out how it all works now and how it will work in the winter.

Edited September 28, 2022 by Tomasz

[Tomasz + 1,608]

What were your predictions about the western sanctions against Russia?

If you didn't know they would be a spectacular failure, and also boomerang on EU, then you have no legitimacy.

If you predicted correctly, then you do. Simple as that.

Quote

Reuters: Slovakia's prime minister says the high cost of electricity has left his country's economy in danger of collapse.

 

Edited September 28, 2022 by Tomasz

[Tomasz + 1,608]

Apart from the fact that the whole world saw in 2022 that Europe is still completely dependent on the USA.

For example, China planning the New Silk Road.

Why ever plan some Silk Road to Europe  when it ends up exactly like the Nord Stream II?

It is a pity to bother with the topic of investing in Europe for China as they enter cold war with USA.

[Tomasz + 1,608]

February: The ruble is rubble!

September: The pound is rubble

Can anyone honestly say undeserved?